You Read It Here First

March 24, 2011 - By admin

John Seiler:

A little over a year ago on CalWatchDog.com, I wrote an analysis headlined, “Census pushing Dems to 2/3 majority.”

Although a lot has happened since then, it’s still worth reading. I pointed out that, after the 2010 U.S. Census and redistricting, in 2012 or 2014 Democrats likely would gain a supermajority in both houses of the Legislature. Then they wouldn’t have to worry about getting two votes in each house (the number today) to pass tax increases. Republicans would become terminally irrelevant.

I noted that, with “Latinos generally voting 70 percent Democratic, and their numbers growing,” the Democratic predominance was just a matter of time.

Today, Dan Morain writes in the Bee:

Two of the top political strategists in the state – former Sen. Jim Brulte, a Republican, and Democratic strategist Garry South – have prepared an analysis showing Republicans are in danger of losing more legislative and congressional seats in 2012.

Not six months ago, California Republicans were trounced at the polls, losing every statewide office and managing to drop yet another seat in the Assembly.

Bad as it is, it could get worse, South and Brulte say. There are several reasons why: rapidly growing numbers of Asian and Latino voters reject their message. Redistricting could further isolate Republicans. A new open primary system will add to electoral uncertainty. Importantly, the GOP is showing an inability to raise money from California donors….

Brulte and South, partners at California Strategies, say Democrats could pick up enough seats in the Assembly and Senate to gain two-thirds majorities in both houses. If that were to happen, Democrats could approve tax or fee hikes without Republican votes.

Morain’s article is yet another paean to putting Jerry Brown’s tax-increase proposal on a June ballot. Supposedly that would make the GOP a little more popular.

Actually, it would make their base even more enraged against them, and fracture the party even more. The only coherent message Republicans have left is: Don’t raise taxes.

My recommended strategy for California Republicans to start winning again in this state: Sit down, pour yourself a stiff Scotch and make preparations to get out of Dodge, Calif.

Anyway, Morain, Brulte and South figured out something we had more than 12 months ago right here on this site.

CalWatchDog.com gives you the news a year before it happens. Come back, y’all.

March 24, 2011

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Joseph Perkins
Joseph Perkins, now assistant editor of the Orange County Register Opinion Pages, started his career as an editorial writer for the Wall Street Journal. After serving on the White House Staff of former Vice President Dan Quayle he wrote for the San Diego Union-Tribune where he authored a nationally-syndicated column. Before writing for CalWatchdog.com, Mr. Perkins was also Business Editor for San Diego Magazine.
Chris Reed
Chris Reed is a regular contributor to Cal Watchdog. Reed is an editorial writer for U-T San Diego. Before joining the U-T in July 2005, he was the opinion-page columns editor and wrote the featured weekly Unspin column for The Orange County Register. Reed was on the national board of the Association of Opinion Page Editors from 2003-2005. From 2000 to 2005, Reed made more than 100 appearances as a featured news analyst on Los Angeles-area National Public Radio affiliate KPCC-FM. From 1990 to 1998, Reed was an editor, metro columnist and film critic at the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin in Ontario. Reed has a political science degree from the University of Hawaii (Hilo campus), where he edited the student newspaper, the Vulcan News, his senior year. He is on Twitter: @chrisreed99.
Brian Calle
Brian Calle is Editor-in-Chief of CalWatchdog.com and the Opinion Editor for the Orange County Register. His work has appeared in Bloomberg, Fox News, Forbes, Real Clear Politics, Human Events, Real Clear Markets and City Journal, among other websites and publications. Find him on Twitter: @briancalle
John Seiler
John Seiler has been writing about California for 25 years. That includes 22 years as an editorial writer for the Orange County Register and two years for CalWatchDog.com, where he is managing editor. He attended the University of Michigan and graduated from Hillsdale College. He was a Russian linguist in U.S. Army military intelligence from 1978 to 1982. He was an editor and writer for Phillips Publishing Company from 1983 to 1986. He has written for Policy Review, Chronicles, LewRockwell.com, Flash Report and numerous other publications. His email: writejohnseiler@gmail.com

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