Expected Vidak-Perez runoff would spark national attention

by CalWatchdog Staff | May 28, 2013 8:22 am

May 30, 2013

By Katy Grimes

[1]

Only hours after appearing to win the election outright for State Senate District 16 [2]last week, many in the political media were opining that Andy Vidak had it easy during this special election, but predicted a 2014 re-election bid would be a different game. Tuesday’s election seemed over and done.

Vidak, a 47-year old, third-generation Republican farmer from Hanford, seemed to win 51.9 percent of the vote in the special election over Bakersfield Democrat Leticia Perez for the Senate seat vacated by former Sen. Michael Rubio, D-Bakersfield. Vidak needed 50 percent-plus-one votes to avoid a runoff against Perez.

But by Friday evening, in a stunning announcement that caught California’s political class completely off guard, it appears Vidak will now face a runoff, thanks to provisional ballots[3] that dropped Vidak below the 50 percent threshold. Provisional ballots have been at the center of election dramas in California in recent years.

Senate District 16

Rubio resigned from office in February after accepting a top position with Chevron. But even with a Republican win, a Democratic supermajority would remain in the Senate; Democrats still hold 28 of the 40 Senate seats.

“After Hanford Republican Andy Vidak posted a convincing victory Tuesday over Bakersfield Democrat Leticia Perez in a 16th state Senate special election, Democrats were hoping history can repeat itself — and Republicans were calculating how to solidify Vidak’s future,” the Fresno Bee wrote[4].

A provisional ballot is used when there are questions about a given voter’s eligibility.

According to the California Secretary of State [5]provisional ballots are used when:

* “Voters who are not on the polling place roster for an unknown reason;”

* “Voters who have moved within their county without re-registering to vote;”

* “Vote-by-mail voters who appear in person;”

* “First-time voters”

Another explanation, according to Wikipedia for when provisional ballots are cast is as follows:[6]

* “The voter refuses to show a photo ID (in regions that require one).

*”The voter’s name does not appear on the electoral roll for the given precinct.

* “The voter’s registration contains inaccurate or out-dated information such as the wrong address or a misspelled name.

* “The voter’s ballot has already been recorded.”

The day after the election, Vidak had nearly 52 percent of the vote. Perez was a distant second with 41.7 percent of the vote.

Many speculate Perez did not finish first because she was only recently elected to the Kern County Board of Supervisors, and voters and even Democratic supporters felt she jumped the gun when she decided to run for the vacant Senate seat.

 How did Vidak pull ahead?

With only a truncated timeline, Vidak’s campaign team managed to do just about everything right. And they kept their focus on winning 50 percent-plus-one of the vote.

“Vidak was a good candidate with good name recognition,” Harmeet Dhillon,[7] vice chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told me. “And Chairman Brulte made it clear he was looking for as much support from everyone on the board, and from the counties.”

Vidak had good name recognition because of his 2010 run for Congress, when he narrowly lost his challenge to Democratic Rep. Jim Costa.

And because Vidak ran in this most recent race as a farmer, and not as a politician, many say people in his district trust him.

Dhillon said CRP Chairman Jim Brulte [8]walked precincts and made phone calls to voters, and expected everyone elected to the CRP Board of Directors to do the same. And they did. “We had the Log Cabin Republicans sitting next to Second Amendment people making campaign calls,” Dhillon said. “And the chairman looked to the counties for support as well. We made 1,000 calls one weekend.”

Brulte also did something the CRP has not been able to do in a long time. He authorized an Independent Expenditure Committee for Vidak’s campaign in order to run a television ad[9].

It’s surprising how well Vidak did. Voter registration in the 16th Senate District is approximately 50.7 percent Democratic and 28.6 percent Republican, according to Political Data Inc.[10], a voter collection data company. With the surprising provisional ballots, it will be interesting to see how those numbers have changed.

A runoff between Vidak and Perez, now almost certain[11], is scheduled for July 23. It should bring not only attention from both statewide parties, but national attention as a bellwether election both for Gov. Jerry Brown’s statewide policies and President Barack Obama’s national policies. A major factor in the race has been Obamacare, which California has taken a national lead in implementation [12]at the state level.

A victory by Vidak could be seen as an allergic reaction by voters against Obamacare; while a Perez victory could be a shot in Obamacare’s arm.

Source URL: https://calwatchdog.com/2013/05/28/expected-vidak-perez-runoff-would-spark-national-attention/

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