The poll was based on 691 registered voters, as well as 517 voters likely to vote in the primary. The top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the Nov. 6 general election.

Newsom, the current lieutenant governor, received 21 percent of the vote, with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Republican businessman John Cox contending for second place with 11 percent and 10 percent of the vote, respectively; well within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Of potential interest to the battle for second place could be President Trump’s recent decision to endorse Cox. While it could potentially mobilize Republican support, it could just as easily backfire and turn away moderates.

California Treasurer John Chiang, who was hoping to become the state’s first Asian-American governor, and Huntington Beach State Assemblyman Travis Allen, who has brashly courted Trump supporters, stand at 6 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

When it comes to issues that could swing voters in congressional races, the Trump administration’s tax overhaul and attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act hold the most cache. Almost half of poll respondents opposed the December tax overhaul, with 52 percent being less likely to re-elect their representative if they supported the changes. And six out of 10 residents support the ACA; similarly, 54 percent would be less likely to vote for a representative trying to repeal Obamacare.

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom appears comfortable with borrowing from Bernie Sanders’ playbook and embracing single-payer health care in his bid to succeed Gov. Jerry Brown in the June open primary and the November general election.

That’s a key takeaway of campaign watchers from the past month of the California gubernatorial campaign. Perhaps the signature moment: Newsom taunting “defeatist Democrats” in a San Diego debate last week – a clear shot at his main Democratic rivals, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Treasurer John Chiang, who both support expanded state health care but are leery of single-payer’s potential cost.

The emergence of the former San Francisco mayor as an outspoken advocate of single-payer amounts to a triumph for the California Nurses Association, the leading champions of Senate Bill 562 – which commits the state to providing health care for all residents without providing key details on how that would be achieved. Despite the lack of details, the bill – known as the Healthy California Act and co-sponsored by Sens. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Garden, and Toni Atkins, D-San Diego – passed the Senate on a 23-14 vote last June.

But Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Paramount, incensed the nurses union later in June when he shelved the bill, declaring it “woefully incomplete.” Rendon cited its failure to identify how it would pay the estimated $400 billion that SB562 would cost per year – more than triple the state’s general fund budget. He also faulted the measure for violating spending limits in the state Constitution and for not making the case on how California would get many needed federal waivers to proceed.

In January, Rendon repeated his criticisms, saying there had been no progress in making SB562 into a serious legislative proposal.

But with polls showing national Democrats consider single-payer health care a high priority, Newsom is eager to take advantage of their enthusiasm. Yet while it may help him in the short term in the run-up to the June primary, it is unclear whether backing SB562 will be popular with the broad electorate in the long term.

A May 2017 poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 65 percent of adults surveyed support single-payer health care – but that the number plunged to 43 percent when those being surveyed were told substantial new taxes would be needed. A follow-up PPIC poll in September found just 32 percent of likely state voters backed single-payer.

Rendon recall bid fails without collecting a single signature

Another sign that single-payer support may have its limits has been the collapse of an effort to recall Rendon that was launched last summer after he blocked the advance of SB562. The bid received national attention after an Associated Press story depicted it as one more sign of how divided California Democrats had become.

But the recall campaign unceremoniously ended in early February, with organizers saying they were now focused on defeating Rendon’s bid for re-election – not on recalling him. To force a recall vote, 23,000 petition signatures would have to be gathered. According to the Los Angeles Times, the most recent official report on the recall campaign filed with the state showed no signatures had been gathered.

Public and private polls for months have generally shown Newsom to be leading Villaraigosa, with Chiang, former Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin (a Democrat) and Republican candidates Travis Allen, a Huntington Beach assemblyman, and Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox substantially behind them. But the last poll by PPIC, released Feb. 7, showed a statistical dead heat, with Newsom getting 23 percent and Villaraigosa 21 percent – within the poll’s margin of error.

State Sen. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens, has introduced a bill to overhaul California’s health care system to create a single-payer model, the latest example of the Golden State bucking the Trump agenda and taking a “go it alone” approach.

The Healthy California Act would create a universal health care system – including covering residents who are in the country illegally. It’s a measure in response to the looming repeal of the Affordable Care Act in Congress. Since the ACAs passing, California has embraced Obamacare despite continued concerns over access to affordable care.

“We have reached a pivotal moment where there’s a threat to health care,” Lara said. “I felt it was important that we create a different narrative here in California.”

This isn’t the first time such legislation has come into focus, as then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed a single-payer bill back in 2006.

Critics of a “Medicare for all” system cite heavy costs associated with an overhaul, as health care expenditures in California totaled $367.5 billion in 2016, making it the state’s largest industry. Furthermore, with undocumented immigrants being covered, those costs would substantially increase. As the Los Angeles Times explained, employees and their employers would face increased taxes and those revenues would be combined with the funds used for Medicare and Medicaid.

While at this point specifics appear light, it’s important to note that California currently relies on about $22 billion in federal funding every year to cover insurance subsidies.

More broadly, it’s the latest example of California waging a fight against the Trump administration. The state has already stoked high-profile battles to defend so-called “sanctuary city” policies, with major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco vowing to continue to defy federal law by not cooperating with immigration authorities.

A recently published Rasmussen poll found that 41 percent of Republicans say America won’t be hurt if California became a separate country – and given its solo approach in the Trump era, it may already feel that way to those between the coasts.

Drew Gregory Lynch is a CalWatchdog contributor

@_drewgregory

Rep. Tom McClintock — a fierce critic of the Affordable Care Act — privately warned congressional Republicans at a party summit in Philadelphia last week that if they weren’t surefooted in repealing and replacing the landmark 2010 health care law, the GOP would pay a heavy price.

The Elk Grove lawmaker’s private warnings went public when a tape of the discussion was leaked to both the Washington Post and the New York Times.

According to the Post, McClintock said, “We’d better be sure that we’re prepared to live with the market we’ve created [with repeal of Obamacare]. That’s going to be called Trumpcare. Republicans will own that lock, stock and barrel, and we’ll be judged in the election less than two years away.”

The Times used the same quote. McClintock was the first person quoted in both accounts.

There was no response to the leaked tape and the coverage of it on McClintock’s House website or on his official Twitter account.

The seemingly worried tone is at odds with the reputation of bluntness, smarts and self-confidence that McClintock has established since being elected chairman of the Ventura County Republican Party at age 23 soon after graduating UCLA, then gaining a state Assembly seat at age 26. Now 60, McClintock’s political base has shifted to Northern California, where he pursued and narrowly won an open House seat in 2008 and has been easily re-elected ever since.

Congressman could be targeted in next redistricting

But his comments may reflect the reality that Democrats probably will have more influence over redistricting than Republicans in California after the 2020 census and are likely to draw boundaries meant to target vulnerable GOP incumbents. Elk Grove, 20 miles south of Sacramento, could easily be moved into a district with many more Democrats.

In 2010, state voters used Proposition 20 to take control of redistricting from the Legislature and gave it to a newly established, ostensibly nonpartisan state commission. But a 2011 ProPublica report laid out a stealth campaign by Democrats to create new districts favorable to their party. 

McClintock has been an unrelenting critic of the Affordable Care Act since it was first proposed in 2009. In an October 2013 speech on the House floor, he read excerpts of letters and emails from nine constituents who complained of being whipsawed by the health law.

“I would beg the president to read his correspondence and listen to the millions of Americans who are losing their affordable health insurance as a result of Obamacare: who are seeing their health care premiums skyrocket, or their hours cut back at work, or who are losing their jobs or the health plans they liked and that he promised they could keep,” the New York native said.

Besides McClintock’s worries about GOP lawmakers being saddled with a badly crafted “Trumpcare,” other Republicans heard on the tape expressed fears that there had been too much rhetoric about how easy it would be to come up with a better replacement. There was sharp criticism of a proposal to give households a large tax credit for health insurance because that would mean families would have to pay large premiums up front. Another concern was the shakiness of the GOP claim that its replacement would be sure to cost far less than the ACA.

Time to work toward 100 percent renewables?

Good morning! TGIF. It’s inauguration Day. So, in honor of the festivities, whether you’re watching in adoration of the incoming president, in morbid curiosity, or just plain ol’ hate watching, we’ll keep it short this morning.  

• Environment: “It’s time to talk 100% renewable energy, California Senate leader says,” writes the Los Angeles Times. 

• NFL: “The Oakland Raiders have made good on a threat that loomed over hometown fans for months, filing paperwork Thursday to move the National Football League team to Las Vegas.” SF Gate has more. 

• Trump: “Scientists in California have named a newly discovered moth species after President-elect Donald Trump, saying the white and yellow scales on the insect’s head are reminiscent of Trump’s blond hairdo.” Capital Public Radio/AP have more. 

• Pensions: “San Diego county and city pension funds have nearly $7 billion less in the bank than they need to cover benefits already earned by current and former employees, a deficit that’s risen 90 percent in just two years, new reports show.” Voice of San Diego has more.

• Obamacare politics: “Democratic legislators took their pro-Obamacare message on the road Thursday, convening a hearing in Bakersfield to examine the repercussions of repealing the Affordable Care Act. The state Senate health committee pointedly held its hearing in the Central Valley — far afield form the state Capitol and the home districts of most members in attendance, but the home turf of key Republican members of California’s congressional delegation including House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone till Monday. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @JonathanArambel

Bullet train report prompts renewed criticism, investigations

Good morning. The bullet train faces renewed scrutiny after a report surfaced suggesting massive cost overruns. 

According to the Los Angeles Times, a “confidential estimate by federal regulators that the cost of California’s bullet train project could jump significantly has prompted critics of the $64-billion Los Angeles-to-San Francisco rail effort to call for new investigations and proponents to disclaim reports that project costs are growing.”

“State officials have accused The Times of mischaracterizing its findings. In a letter to members of the Legislature, the California High-Speed Rail Authority accused The Times of incorrectly using internal deliberations to suggest cost overruns and delays that are not borne out by facts.”

“But critics of the project said the federal analysis validates their concerns that the state will be saddled with multibillion-dollar unbudgeted costs for the foreseeable future.”

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Trump: “California’s expectations for Donald Trump’s presidency are in the cellar, with little more than a third of voters believing it will be a success, a new Hoover Institution Golden State Poll shows. But a plurality of voters holds more positive than negative views about some of Trump’s more controversial positions, including his call to restrict immigrants from certain countries, end sanctuary cities and to deport undocumented immigrants.” Politico has more. 

• ACA repeal: PolitiFact CA checks the accuracy of Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon’s claim that an ACA repeal could cost the state 200,000 jobs. Here’s a hint: You can’t measure the impact without knowing what the replacement is. In fact, CalWatchdog wrote something similar recently.

• Musical chairs: “As top California Democrats plot their future career moves, a critical piece of information is missing: Will Sen. Dianne Feinstein seek re-election? Speculation about the 83-year-old senator’s plans took on new urgency this year, as ambitious statewide politicians decide whether to run for governor with Gov. Jerry Brown termed out. News that Feinstein was fitted with a pacemaker last week reignited the parlor game, with California political circles discussing anew what the procedure might mean for the veteran lawmaker as she evaluates her options.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• 2018: “Peter Thiel, the Silicon Valley billionaire and outspoken Donald Trump supporter, is considering a 2018 bid for California governor, according to three Republicans familiar with his thinking.” Politico has more. 

Legislature:

• Assembly in at 1 p.m., Senate in a 2 p.m. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @TomSchatzCAGW

CA sales tax dips, tax burden rises

Good morning! It’s Friday. Let’s get down to business. 

“Four years ago, voters approved Proposition 30, which raised the income tax significantly on the wealthiest Californians and raised the sales tax a tiny bit on everyone,” Capital Public Radio recently recalled. “That quarter-of-a-cent increase equated to paying an additional $0.01 on a $4 coffee; $1 on a $400 television; and $100 on a $40,000 car.” 

But on Election Day 2016, that changed. “Voters extended Proposition 30’s income tax increases in [November’s] presidential election with Proposition 55 — but that initiative allowed the Prop. 30 sales tax hike to expire.”

The shift means California’s sales tax is the state’s only tax to be decreased this year, from 7.5 percent to 7.25 percent.

As the U-T reported, “Some local jurisdictions tack on their own assessments, so residents in certain areas will still pay more than the statewide rate.” In certain parts of the state, like the San Francisco Bay Area, voters allowed substantial increases. 

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Health Care: “As Washington grapples with health care policy again, the head of the 185,000-member National Nurses United is turning her attention to a seemingly unlikely advocate for a single-payer system. ‘The one I’m counting on the most is Trump,’ RoseAnn DeMoro said. DeMoro, who serves as executive director of both the Oakland-based National Nurses United and the California Nurses Association, told POLITICO California on Thursday that she is ‘disgusted’ with Democrats like House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and believes that the president-elect may actually get action.” Politico has more. 

• Minimum wage: “San Diego is cracking down on several restaurants that city officials say are adding surcharges in misleading and illegal ways to help cover increased labor costs from the minimum wage hike that took effect Jan. 1.” The San Diego Union-Tribune has more. 

• Budget: “But recent events in California and the nation suggest the fiscal proposal Brown unveils next week could be his most circumspect to date, even after voters in November approved billions of dollars in additional taxes,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

• Obamacare: “House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has written to Gov. Jerry Brown and the leaders of other states soliciting their input for replacing Obamacare.” The Sacramento Bee has more. 

Legislature:

• Back on Monday. 

Gov. Brown:

• On vacation in Hawaii until Sunday, according to The Sacramento Bee. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @hilljobs

Short-term pain with ACA repeal

Good morning! TGIT. Republicans in Washington appear poised to repeal the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, some time after Donald Trump is sworn in as president.

With premiums on the rise and consistently poor polling, repeal is music to the ears of many, as evidenced by every federal election since the measure was passed in 2010. But California would suffer major economic consequences if Congress repeals the ACA without an adequate replacement, according to a new study by the UC Berkeley Labor Center. 

A partial repeal (as a full repeal still seems out of reach) would cause Californians to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions of dollars in annual federal funding and kick millions out of coverage. Some of the losses would be offset by gains elsewhere, but it’s impossible to give a complete analysis of the offsetting effects without Republicans’ replacement plan.

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Budget: “California’s state auditors recently released an unflattering look at the state’s finances, part of their annual report. Issued several years in arrears, the assessment showed nearly $2 billion in deficit spending for the 2011-2012 fiscal year, piling more borrowed money onto what Gov. Jerry Brown has called a figurative ‘wall of debt.’” CalWatchdog has more. 

• CPUC: “Gov. Jerry Brown has chosen two of his closest advisors on environmental and climate change issues to fill positions on the California Public Utilities Commission, the powerful state agency that regulates energy companies and the telecommunications industry.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• Trump Transition: “Abel Maldonado, California’s former lieutenant governor, the Central Coast’s former assemblymember and state senator, and Santa Maria’s former mayor, was in Florida on Wednesday, reportedly interviewing with President-elect Donald Trump to discuss a possible appointment as Secretary of Agriculture.” Santa Barbara Independent has more. 

• Lobbying: The Sacramento Bee looks at how a top Democratic donor pushed a major environmental bill through the Legislature. 

Legislature:

• Gone till January. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @LGullyborn

Republicans in Washington appear poised to repeal the ACA, better known as Obamacare, some time after Donald Trump is sworn in as president. With premiums on the rise and consistently poor polling, repeal is music to the ears of many, as evidenced by every federal election since the measure was passed in 2010.

However, a partial repeal would cause Californians to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs, billions of dollars in annual federal funding and kick millions of people out of coverage. Some of the losses would be offset by gains elsewhere, but it’s impossible to give a complete analysis of the offsetting effects without Republicans’ replacement plan.

What we know

Even with Republican majorities in Congress and a Republican president, a full repeal of the ACA is unlikely, due to a 60-vote threshold in the Senate that would require at least a handful of Democratic votes.

UC Berkeley Labor Center analysts used a 2015 partial-repeal bill that was ultimately vetoed by President Barack Obama to estimate the effects. Under that bill, California would lose $20.5 billion annually in federal funding for low-income subsidies and expanded Medi-Cal coverage.

As a result of that lost funding, 3.7 million Californians would lose Medi-Cal coverage, while another 1.2 million would lose subsidies, which may or may not make coverage unaffordable. 

Offsets

The billions in lost federal funds would be offset by smaller gains elsewhere, like $6.3 billion in tax cuts to California insurers and high-income earners. A repeal could also remove the requirement to have coverage, saving $1.3 billion in penalties for the uninsured. 

The study estimates approximately 250,000 jobs would be lost from repeal. However, approximately 41,000 jobs would be created through tax cuts, as well as through eliminating fees on insurers, penalties to companies for not providing coverage and penalties for the uninsured.

Popularity

Polling and electoral results have repeatedly shown the law to be unpopular with the public nationally, and Californians are facing an expected average increase in premiums by 13.2 percent next year. 

Nationally, the public is divided on the law. In November, 45 percent of adults had an unfavorable impression of the law, compared to the 43 percent who had a favorable impression, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll.

Republicans have incrementally seized power in Washington on a repeal platform ever since Democrats passed the ACA in 2010 with their own congressional majorities and president, Barack Obama. In 2010, Democrats lost the House. In 2014, they lost the Senate. And in 2016, they failed to regain the Senate and lost the White House.

How Obamacare repeals would affect some Californians

Good morning. Happy Monday. It seems like both the country and state are in a holding pattern until January when Trump will be sworn in, a new Congress starts and the California legislative session begins. 

Democrats in the Legislature have made it clear in recent weeks that everyone should expect fights with the feds over immigration, while Republicans in D.C. are prioritizing an Obamacare repeal. But details are sketchy. 

One thing is for sure: Even though Republicans have taken control of D.C. on an anti-Obamacare platform, there could still be many upset people, depending on how the replacement system is structured. 

In fact, Bakersfield.com/Kaiser Health News talked to some of those upset people in the Bakersfield district of House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. But no matter what happens, there will be people both upset and pleased. 

In other news:

• Fate of the CA GOP: “Many say the party needs to soften its posture on undocumented immigrants and social issues in order to attract more Latino, Asian and young voters. Others, particularly in the GOP’s traditional voter base, counter that Trump’s victory nationwide is proof that a stronger stance is called for. At stake is the very relevance of the Republican Party in California.” The Orange County Register has more. 

• Mismanagement of a gov’t program?: “The Metropolitan Water District’s massive $340-million turf rebate program — which helped thousands of Southern Californians rip out their lawns in favor of drought-tolerant landscaping — was plagued by poor planning and oversight by the agency, a new audit found.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• Racial profiling: “Police officers in California will soon track the race of those they pull over for traffic stops or encounter in the street, according to proposed guidelines released Friday by Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

• Drought: “October was wet, November dry. And December? The soft but steady rains this weekend were enough to push the Sacramento region to 155 percent of normal precipitation for the season. … And there’s more to come. … So what does that mean for California’s drought, now entering a sixth year? While Northern California has seen a wet start to winter, the situation is more complicated across the state. Central and Southern California continue to experience unusually dry conditions. And even in the north state, it’s not clear how the rest of the rainy season will shape up.” The Sacramento Bee has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone till January. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @SpokeAna