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	<title>2018 elections &#8211; CalWatchdog.com</title>
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		<title>Roll Call: 5 California House incumbents at risk of election defeat</title>
		<link>https://calwatchdog.com/2017/11/28/roll-call-5-california-house-incumbents-risk-election-defeat/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Reed]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2017 16:22:45 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dana Rohrabacher]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darrell Issa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ed Royce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeff Denham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Knight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California House Republicans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2018 elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roll Call analysis]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://calwatchdog.com/?p=95280</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The latest update of Roll Call’s Inside Election analysis says five California House incumbents face difficult re-election bids, and they’re all Republicans. This reflects national polls that suggest Democrats may regain]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignright  wp-image-92743" src="https://calwatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Darrell-Issa-2.jpg" alt="" width="342" height="221" srcset="https://calwatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Darrell-Issa-2.jpg 700w, https://calwatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Darrell-Issa-2-300x194.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 342px) 100vw, 342px" />The latest update of Roll Call’s </span><a href="http://media.cq.com/electionguide/house/CA/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Inside Election</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> analysis says five California House incumbents face difficult re-election bids, and they’re all Republicans. This reflects </span><a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">national polls</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> that suggest Democrats may regain control of the House in 2018 because of the unpopularity of President Donald Trump. Tens of millions of dollars in super PAC funds are expected to go to these Republicans&#8217; challengers.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, is rated as a toss-up to win a 10th term. His 49th District covers north and northwest San Diego County and south Orange County. Last election, Issa defeated lawyer and retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate by 1,621 votes – the smallest margin of victory of any House race in 2016.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Applegate is</span><a href="http://www.applegateforcongress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;"> running again </span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">and is joined by at least three fellow Democrats: San Juan Capistrano environmental lawyer </span><a href="http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-levin-runs-20170308-story.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mike Levin</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, Rancho Santa Fe businessman </span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-darrell-issa-challenger-paul-1499807312-htmlstory.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Paul Kerr</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> and Del Mar native </span><a href="https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2017/11/16/sara-jacobs-qualcomm-founder-kin-is-4th-democrat-to-challenge-issa-in-2018/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sara Jacobs</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, a former official in the Obama State Department and the granddaughter of Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs. Levin has a </span><a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=CA49" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">solid lead</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in fundraising, according to the most recent reports.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Issa has sought to distance himself from Trump and to present himself as more of a moderate, but his Vista office has been the target of </span><a href="http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/communities/north-county/sd-no-weekly-demonstrations-20170830-story.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">dozens of protests</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> over the past year.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Huntington Beach, is rated as being in a “tilt GOP” race – defined by Roll Call as an essentially even race in which Rohrabacher may have a very small edge to win his 16th term in the House. Rohrabacher’s 48th District covers most of coastal Orange County and some inland communities.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rohrabacher won 58 percent to 42 percent in 2016 over Democrat Suzanne Savary, a retired USC professor and business owner. But he’s since had a rough year in the national media over his unusual enthusiasm for Russia and friendships with Russian officials. A Nov. 21 New York Times story noted that “the Kremlin likes him so much it gave him a </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/21/us/politics/dana-rohrabacher-putin-trump-kremlin-under-fire.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">code name</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Several Democrats are expected to challenge Rohrabacher in 2018. The one who appears to have generated the most </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/06/20/he-broke-ground-in-stem-cell-research-now-hes-running-for-congress/?utm_term=.e59aadb31f49" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">excitement </span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">among national party officials is </span><a href="https://hansforca.com/home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hans Keirstead</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, a Laguna Beach resident who is a stem cell pioneer and entrepreneur. But Keirstead trails Laguna Beach businessman Harley Rouda in fundraising, </span><a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=CA48" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">according to</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> the most recent reports.</span></p>
<h3>Multiple Democrats line up to challenge each incumbent</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Three other California House GOP incumbents are rated as having 2018 “lean” in their direction – meaning that while a very close race is likely, they appear to have a slight advantage.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton, is seeking a 14th term. His 39th District is centered in central northeast Orange County, with some communities in south Los Angeles County and a sliver of San Bernardino County. In 2016, he won by 14 percent over Democrat Brett Murdock, a former Brea mayor.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">He’s also likely to face several Democratic challengers. The list includes former Obama administration official Sam Jammal, philanthropist Gil Cisneros, pediatrician Mai Khan and Villa Park health insurance executive Andy Thorburn, who has a </span><a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=CA39" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">huge lead</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in fundraising because he </span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-new-challenger-for-rep-ed-royce-kicks-1501622135-htmlstory.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">loaned his campaign</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> $2 million.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rep. Steve Knight, R-Palmdale, is seeking a third term. His 25th District covers northern Los Angeles County and a chunk of Ventura County. In 2016, he won by 6 percent over Democratic attorney Bryan Caforio, who is </span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-another-democratic-challenger-for-rep-1511216793-htmlstory.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">running again</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">. There are several other Democrats running, but it is Caforio and anti-homelessness activist Katie Hill who have gotten the most financial support. Caforio </span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-two-democratic-challengers-raise-as-1508172151-htmlstory.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">raised more funds</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> than Knight over a recent three-month stretch, and Hill raised nearly as much. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, is seeking his fifth term. In 2016, he won his seat in the 10th District in the northern San Joaquin Valley by 2.4 percent over farmer Michael Eggman. At least </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2018" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">eight Democrats</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, including former House candidate TJ Cox, are running against Denham. </span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/11/vc-josh-harder-is-running-for-congress-in-californias-10th-district.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Josh Harder</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">, a venture capitalist, has a </span><a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?id=CA10" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;">huge early lead</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> in fundraising, with Cox a distant second.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Denham has already been targeted with</span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-former-congresswoman-s-pac-is-running-1502415514-htmlstory.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="font-weight: 400;"> harsh TV ads</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> paid for by a super PAC linking him to bankers associated with the Great Recession, which hit the Central Valley particularly hard.</span></p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">95280</post-id>	</item>
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