By John Seiler

We’ll have to see how the evening goes. But so far, the Top Two has not proved the revolutionary move to moderation that its backers hoped.

In a key race in Orange County, early returns show that incumbent Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, R-Costa Mesa, is finishing first in the new 74th Assembly District. Republican challenger Leslie Daigle, whose candidacy was supported by Top Two sponsor Charles Munger, among others, is finishing third, meaning she’s out. In second place is Robert Rush, a Democrat. So the November runoff will be as in the past: the Republican easily trouncing the Democrat.

The 74th was supposed to be more “moderate” than Mansoor’s previous district, the 68th, which includes more conservative inland area. The 74th includes more of Orange County’s coastal area. Many onlookers believe, Daigle, had she won in November, would have been more apt to join Democrats in backing tax increases.

But it turns out there are more anti-tax realists, like yours truly, than were expected.

We’ll see how Top Two fares the rest of the evening…