Two months ago, Republican operatives feared that presidential nominee Donald Trump would destroy their chances to

Now things look much brighter for the party after a rough stretch for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The Senate appears less at risk because the fact that Trump is the GOP nominee doesn’t seem to be held against GOP incumbents. Gerrymandering appears to have left the House Republican majority safe, perhaps until 2022, after the next census.

But in California, at least, the assumption remains the Trump will drag down GOP candidates in congressional races. That’s why the state Democratic Party is seeking in seven swing districts to target Republicans who are “running on the Trump ticket,” according to a party statement last week as it launched the WrongForCA.com website and related social media efforts.

Four of the Republicans are incumbents: Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, Darrell Issa, R-Vista, Steve Knight, R-Lancaster, and David Valadao, R-Hanford.

The other three are businessman Justin Fareed, seeking the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps in the Santa Barbara area; businesswoman Denise Gitsham, who’s going against Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, who is targeting Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove

Michael Soller, communications director for the California Democratic Party, likened Trump’s candidacy to a “sick joke.”

The best hope of sinking a GOP incumbent may be in Issa’s district, which straddles north San Diego County and south Orange County and appears to be moving leftward from its traditional Republicanism. Issa only got 51 percent of the vote in the June primary and has a higher-profile opponent than in past elections, former Marine Lt. Col. Doug Applegate. Running against a poorly funded, little-known Democrat in November 2014, Issa took 60 percent of the vote. The former chairman of the House oversight committee has endorsed Trump, while also making clear his lack of enthusiasm for the New York billionaire.

In November 2014, Denham won with 56 percent of the vote. Knight won with 53 percent and Valadao with 58 percent.

GOP could take first CA Democratic House seat since 1998

Of the other three races, the most surprising is the battle for the seat of the retiring Capps. The Cook Political Report moved the race between Fareed and Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal from “solid Democrat” to “leaning Democrat” last week after Carbajal’s campaign released a seemingly credible Tarrance Group poll showing Fareed up 46 percent to 43 percent.

But as the Cook analysis noted, California Republicans have not won a congressional district represented by a Democrat since 1998. That was when then-Assemblyman Steven T. Kuykendall, R-Rancho Palos Verdes, defeated Janice Hahn of the dynastic Los Angeles political family for a seat that had previously been held by Jane Harman, who ran for governor in 1998. Harman defeated Kuykendall in 2000, making him the only House incumbent to lose that year.

Hanh succeeded Harman in 2011.

Sitting state senator passes

Sad news today: State Sen. Sharon Runner has died.

The Lancaster Republican has battled health issues for sometime, having survived a double lung transplant in recent years. She announced earlier this year that she would not run for re-election.

“Sharon Runner’s life was one of service,” California Republican Party Chairman Jim Brulte told The Sacramento Bee. “Whether it was establishing a Christian day school to help educate children, serving first in the California State Assembly and then in the California State Senate, or fighting for initiatives to protect families in California – Sharon was committed to the people of her community and our great state.”

• After shooting an unarmed teenager last month, Fresno PD took a rare step Wednesday by releasing body camera footage of the incident. The Los Angeles Times has more. 
• Newly uncovered court documents allege Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones — a Republican who is challenging Rep. Ami Bera, R-Elk Grove, for his seat in Congress — made unwanted sexual advances toward a subordinate. The Sacramento Bee has more.   
• Sending a 550-person delegation to Ohio for the Republican National Convention is neither easy nor cheap, reports Capital Public Radio. 
• “Last week, a coalition of California Central Valley water districts sued the Bureau of Reclamation in the latest installment of the litigation wars over the delta smelt.  The new lawsuit, filed in federal district court in Fresno, and coming on the heels of the Governor Brown administration’s announcement to release an additional annual 200,000 acre-feet of water for the smelt, challenges the Bureau’s recent issuance of an environmental impact statement purportedly assessing the effects that the smelt-inspired water cutbacks have had on the San Joaquin Valley,” writes the Pacific Legal Foundation.

Legislature:

• Gone ’til August

Gov. Brown:

• On vacation

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But will his resignation quiet the political and social unrest in the city, or will others follow, like Mayor Ed Lee, who is surrounded by allies’ controversy, or Fire Chief Joanne Hayes-White, who has been plagued by questions about her leadership and judgement? 

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Voter registration in California is surging at a rate not seen since 1980, reports The San Jose Mercury News. While there are likely many factors at play, the Capitol Weekly reports that much of the credit goes to Facebook. 
• As the primary approaches and voters consider Prop. 50, which would give the Legislature the ability to suspend misbehaving lawmakers without pay, Capital Public Radio looks at how the idea came about.  
• “Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, whose father is awaiting sentencing on two felony counts of election fraud, for years has engaged in a complex series of campaign donations involving his parents and the families of other congressional candidates, federal records show,” writes The Sacramento Bee.
• Los Angeles finally opened its subway line to the ocean over the weekend, but its success will be determined by its functionality, which needs some improvement. The LA Weekly has more. 

Assembly:

• In at 1 p.m. A few Budget subcommittee hearings.

Senate:

• In at noon. Appropriations Committee hearing. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events scheduled.

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Follow us: @calwatchdog.com @mflemingterp

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The first-term Democratic Senator from Massachusetts earned a rousing applause and standing ovation from convention delegates as she blamed the country’s income inequality and decline of the middle class on Ronald Reagan and three decades of Republican economic policies.

“The epicenter of the political earthquake that shook America’s middle class to its core started right here in California — right here with your former Governor Ronald Reagan,” Warren said as convention delegates cheered her on. “For more than 30 years, starting with Ronald Reagan, the Republican leadership latched onto an idea it called trickle-down economics, and then they got to work.”

She continued, “They attacked wages, they attacked pensions, they attacked health care, they attacked unions, they attacked education, they attacked science, they attacked financial regulation.”

Democrats divided on economic policies

Warren’s speech to convention delegates was only one example of the growing divide between moderate, business-friendly Democrats and those considered to be the true champions of progressive causes. At this weekend’s convention, progressive speakers offered subtle quips and direct jabs at party members who have strayed from what they see as party orthodoxy.

President Obama, who is currently pushing for congressional approval of a Pacific Rim trade agreement, wasn’t immune from the criticism.

California Democratic Party Chairman John Burton, a hero of the progressive wing, used his introductory remarks at Saturday’s floor session to criticize the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership as just “another way of saying ‘take jobs away from American workers and send them overseas.'”

Considered the most significant free-trade agreement since the North American Free Trade Agreement signed in 1994, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, known simply as TPP, would reduce tariffs and other trade barriers among the United States and a dozen Pacific Rim countries, including Japan, Australia, Singapore and Malaysia.

“In San Francisco, we used to have a fairly sized garment industry, that’s gone — shipped overseas,” the former state Senator reminded delegates. “We had manufacturing companies, those jobs are gone.”

Burton lamented that new trade deals “help big business, and American workers get screwed and the business guys gets rich.” He also assured delegates that Warren was on their side in the economic split, calling her “the f-ing champion of the American people.”

Rep. Ami Bera targeted by labor

Organized labor made clear that even Democratic elected officials that currently represent swing districts would not be excluded from criticism over the trade deal. Outside of the Anaheim Convention Center, protesting workers held signs singling out Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove, for “railroading working families” with a free-trade agreement that they see as the “fast track to no work.”

“Ami Bera, you’re no good,” a lead protester chanted to the communal reply, “Treat the worker like you should.”

The second-term Congressman narrowly defeated former Rep. Doug Ose last November by less than 1 percent of the vote. He is considered one of the top targets for Congressional Republicans in 2016.

Bera’s trouble at the convention is the second time this month that he’s been in hot water related to the controversial trade agreement. Earlier this month, Bera admitted to plagiarizing an op-ed piece featured in the Sacramento Bee. Republicans wasted no time in capitalizing on that misstep.

“With more evidence of Ami Bera’s cut-and-paste public policy coming to light, the hardworking people in his district have every right to question Bera’s honesty and leadership,” Zach Hunter, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement released earlier this month. “With his history of plagiarism, how can 7th District families trust Ami Bera to shoot straight with them on important issues?”

Tom Steyer dragged into rift

Influential Democratic donor Tom Steyer could soon be dragged into the party’s rift over economic issues.

On Friday, the billionaire climate change activist urged Democrats to support his plan for a statewide ballot measure to impose an oil extraction tax. By Saturday afternoon, Steyer’s critics attacked his silence on the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and questioned his financial ties to the trade deal.

“Today CA Democratic Party Chair John Burton joined progressive leaders such as Senator Elizabeth Warren in opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” said Sabrina Lockhart, communications director for Californians for Energy Independence. “Tom Steyer, by far the party’s biggest donor, has not stated his position on the TPP, perhaps because he is still invested in Farallon, which stands to benefit from the TPP.”

She added, “This is odd given he is positioning himself as the party’s progressive, environmental leader, and criticisms from groups like the Sierra Club that the trade agreement is weak on the environment.”

Elizabeth Emken says it is a good time to be a Republican. She’s running for California’s 7th Congressional district, currently held by freshman Rep. Ami Bera, a Democrat.

If Emken’s name sounds familiar it is because she was the GOP’s U.S. Senate nominee in California in 2012 against Democrat Sen. Diane Feinstein.

‘Unring the bell on Obamacare’

Health care is a passionate issue for Emken. “America has some of the finest hospitals, physicians and nurses the world has ever known,” she told me during a recent interview. “We also have a health care system that is struggling with issues of affordability and access.”

“The Obama administration will blame big bad insurance companies,” Emken said. “The irony is it may ‘cover everyone,’ but it will further bifurcate. Prior to 2009, we were working out health care and insurance issues. We were starting to deal with the base inequities between large and small insurance plans, by pushing to open up competition. The competitive pressure problem will only be fixed when we take on the tax code. But President Obama has no desire to deal with the debt, deficit or tax code – because no political good can come from fixing the tax code.”

Currently, Emken explained, employers are encouraged by the federal tax system to be the purchasers of health insurance. Individual persons do not get the tax deduction for insurance. Attempting to contain costs, employers have opted for the various forms of managed care.

“The Supreme Court ruling [approving the program] brought Obamacare’s hidden taxes to the light of day,” Emken said. “With a price tag double what the Democrats promised and growing exponentially every day, the ‘Affordable Care Act’ may be the most ironic title for a major bill in the history of Congress.

Repeal

Emken wants what she calls “Obama’s dishonest attempt at health care reform” to be repealed before its regulations and price controls further damage the availability and quality of health care. “It should be replaced with policies that target specific health market concerns: quality, affordability and access,” she said. “We need a transformational realignment that moves us back toward a system that is affordable and once again, at its core, consists of a medical provider, and a patient, in an exam room.

“Obamacare has undermined positive health care reforms that have been under way since the late 1990s and its skyrocketing costs have become a major deterrent to America’s corporate stability. Even more alarming for individual taxpayers and families, congressional budget analysts are now estimating that nearly 6 million Americans — most of them middle class — will have to pay a penalty for not getting health insurance once Obamacare is fully in place.”

Emken plans on taking this issue to Bera, a medical doctor who campaigned in 2012 as “Dr. Ami Bera.” He beat Rep. Dan Lungren, the Republican incumbent and former California attorney general. Taking back the seat is a key goal of state and national Republicans for retaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

“I’ve not found one doctor who likes Obamacare,” Emken said. Bera has supported Obamacare, and voted against the repeal, according to his official Congressional website.

The campaign

Emken called it a time of a lack of jobs. “Small business is feeling crushed,” she said. “The anti-business environment is really felt in my district.”

Emken said smaller businesses in particular are struggling with current healthcare issues, as well as staggering regulations. “There’s a malaise of sorts,” she said. “There’s a disbelief that government can or will fix anything.”

Emken said that what sets her apart from Bera, and her Republican opponents, is her experience and family. “People are desperate for leaders who know what their families are going through,” she said. “And, they believe government is part of the problem.”

Emken worked in management, financial analysis and corporate operations at IBM as an efficiency and cost cutting expert, helping streamline operations, eliminate waste, and save the company millions of dollars.

After her son was diagnosed with autism, Emken began a second career as an executive with Autism Speaks, advocating for developmentally disabled children

She led the national charge, fighting for transparency and accountability on how the National Institutes of Health would spend autism research dollars. Her efforts produced a portfolio analysis of autism spending that would have to withstand public scrutiny — a policy Emken said should apply throughout the entire government.

Senate race 2012

Emken’s U.S. Senate race was particularly interesting because Feinstein refused to debate Emken. Feinstein acted as if the 2012 race for the U.S. Senate was a coronation, and was the only U.S. Senator running for reelection who would not debate her opponent. Voters in California were denied key questions that Emken would have brought to Feinstein about the forthcoming Obamacare implementation.

Emken hopes Bera will debate her, and said she would like the Sacramento Bee to host a debate forum during the primary.

2014 race