Women make up more than half of California’s population, but only about one-fourth of the Legislature. 

And in November, that’s unlikely to change too much, according to a CalWatchdog analysis.

While an October surprise, outside factor or just particularly good or bad campaigning could change the course of race that appears to be a sure thing, primary results, incumbency advantages, voting trends and partisan makeup of a district can be useful in making educated guesses.

Currently, out of 120 legislative seats, there are 30 held by women — an additional seat is vacant now, having been held by the late Republican Senator Sharon Runner, who died unexpectedly earlier this month.   

There could be as many as 49 women in the Legislature next year, but it is likely that they’ll hover around the same amount as this year.  

In the Senate, women could have as few as five seats and as many as 13 — realistically, the number will likely be around eight to 10 seats. In the Assembly, women will occupy at least six seats and as many as 36, but that number will likely be somewhere between 15 and 24 seats. 

What we know for sure

Republican Senators Jean Fuller, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates and Democratic Senators Connie Leyva and Holly Mitchell are not up for re-election and will definitely be returning next year, as the Senate is on staggered four-year terms.

In the Assembly, every seat is up for re-election every two years, although five seats will definitely stay occupied by women — either because the incumbent is running unopposed (or facing a write-in challenge) or because the incumbents are facing another woman in the general election. Those five seats are held by: Democrats Cheryl Brown, Cristina Garcia and Autumn Burke and Republicans Catharine Baker and Young Kim. 

Because of either term limits or the seat being vacated by an incumbent running for another position, eight seats held by women will be replaced by men as no women advanced from the primary in these races. Those are the seats currently held by Republican Assemblywomen Beth Gaines, Kristin Olsen, Shannon Grove and Ling Ling Chang and one Democrat, Toni Atkins, as well as two Democratic senators, Carol Liu and Fran Pavley.

Runner’s Senate seat will also be filled by a man.

There is only one definite pickup: An Assembly seat held by termed-out Democrat Luis Alejo.  

Seats where we likely know the outcome

Again, nothing is guaranteed until the final votes are tallied, but these nine seats are safe bets.

While the Assembly seat of Speaker Emeritus Toni Atkins will be filled with a man as mentioned above, the San Diego Democrat is expected to offset that loss by filling a seat being vacated by a man in the Senate. 

Because of the advantages of incumbency, district voting trends and favorable lopsided primary results, these eight female legislators will likely keep their seats: In the Senate, it’s Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson (the current chair of the Women’s Caucus) and Cathleen Galgiani, and in the Assembly, it’s Democrats Jacqui Irwin, Susan Talamantes Eggman, Shirley Weber and Lorena Gonzalez with Republicans Melissa Melendez and Marie Waldron.

One female incumbent in trouble 

The only incumbent woman who is on very shaky ground is Democrat Patty Lopez. Lopez finished second in the primary, down 17.2 percentage points to the man she surprisingly knocked out of office in 2014, fellow Democrat Raul Bocanegra.

Best pickup chances

In the race to replace Sen. Mark Leno, who is termed out, Jane Kim led the primary against fellow Democrat Scott Wiener 45.3 percent to 45.1 percent. It’s obviously a close race, but it is a good chance for a woman to pick up a seat.

In a less competitive race, Democrat Cecilia Aguiar-Curry finished first in the primary against Republican Charlie Schaupp in a heavily Democratic district to replace Assemblyman Bill Dodd, D-Napa, who is running for Senate.

Democrat S. Monique Limón finished the primary with a formidable lead against Edward Fuller, who claims no party preference, 65.9 percent t0 34.1 percent. If elected, Limón would replace Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams. 

In the race to replace termed-out, Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez — who is currently under a three-year restraining order for alleged domestic violence — Blanca Rubio appears likely to win. Rubio, a Democrat, will face Republican Cory Ellenson in a heavily-Democratic district.

Two wildcards 

Two seats where women have decent chances to pickup seats, although the odds are slightly tipped against them, are the Senate races to replace termed-out Republican Bob Huff and incumbent Democrat Jim Beall.

Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang saw an opening in the Huff race and decided to vacate her Assembly seat after only one term. However, she finished the primary with only 44 percent, with two Democrats splitting the 56 percent majority. 

Beall is being challenged by Assemblywoman Nora Campos, a fellow Democrat. Beall narrowly missed a majority in the primary, topping Campos by 22.5 percentage points. Campos is considered the business-friendly candidate, so she’ll have to use that to draw upon Republican support to top Beall.

Toss ups

There are approximately 11 races that look as though they could go either way, with four being vacated by termed-out women. Another four are against male incumbents: Republicans Marc Steinorth, Eric Linder and Travis Allen and Democrat Miguel Santiago.  

Looking for October surprises

And there are 11 other races where women are challenging male incumbents, although these races do not appear as though they’ll be too competitive. 

By Katy Grimes

Stop the presses! A really good Republican bill just passed the Assembly 63-0. What? How?

AB 527 by Assemblywoman Beth Gaines, R-Rocklin, would repeal the existing exemption of the Western Climate Initiative, Inc., and its appointees, from the Bagley-Keene Open Meeting Act when performing their duties.

Thus far, WCI, Inc. an arm of the California Air Resources Board registered in Delaware, has been operating in secrecy.

Immediately after its passage, a very happy Gains explained more about her bill to me.

“First, the bill prohibits the Air Resources Board from making a payment to WCI, Inc., the out of state company charged with implementing California’s cap-and-trade, unless the Air Resources Board certifies that WCI, Inc. complies with the provisions of the California Open Meetings Act and Public Records Act insuring that all meetings and actions are subject to public scrutiny.”

“Secondly, it makes WCI, Inc. subject to audit by the California State Auditor. In the event of an audit, ARB may not make any payments to WCI, Inc. unless WCI, Inc. complies with the audit.”

What is the WCI, Inc.?

According to their website, WCI, Inc. was created to develop a compliance tracking system that tracks both allowances and offsets for the CARB’s can and trade program. WCI, Inc. will also administer allowance auctions; and conduct market monitoring of allowance auctions and offset certificate trading.

According to Gaines, existing law imposes conditions on the Western Climate Initiative, Inc., which is a nongovernmental entity created to assist the state board in the implementation of the act.

The Bagley-Keene Open Meeting Act, requires that all meetings of a state body be open and public. But the law creating the WCI, Inc. exempted the corporation, and its appointees from the Bagley-Keene Open Meeting Act.

Gaines’ bill would repeal that exemption.

Interestingly,  WCI, Inc. was coincidentally registered in Delaware.

A little CARB History

In November 2011, the California Air Resources Board  formed WCI, Inc., a non-profit corporation, formed to provide administrative and technical services to support the implementation of state and provincial greenhouse gas emissions trading programs.

According to their website, WCI, Inc. will develop a compliance tracking system that tracks both allowances and offsets; administer allowance auctions; and conduct market monitoring of allowance auctions and offset certificate trading.

The Board of Directors is made up of public officials from Quebec and British Columbia, and public officials from the State of California.

California officials include:

Matt Rodriguez, Secretary for Environmental Protection, Mary Nichols, Chairman of the California Air Resources Board, Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkelely, and Kip Lipper, senior staff member to California State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, and D-Sacramento, often called the “41st senator,”  and referred to as the godfather of California’s environmental bills.

No environmental legislation passes, or gets killed in the Legislature, without Lipper’s approval.

“Lipper is officially classified as an “environmental consultant” to the state Senate.  Any environmental bill that has come out of the Legislature in the last decade has only done so because Lipper allowed it, or because he made it happen,” I wrote in CEQA reforms blow smog over state. “When a bill becomes ‘Lipperized,’ it is altered into a far different bill than the original. Or the bill will die in a committee upon Lipper’s orders.”

And Lipper is now on the WCI, Inc. Board of Directors.

According to bill analysis:

Existing law sets out the authority and duties of the California State Auditor in conducting audits and surveys of specified entities. Existing law authorizes and provides access to the California State Auditor and his or her authorized representatives to examine and reproduce various records of any agency of the state. This bill would require a contract between the state and the Western Climate Initiative, Incorporated, to be subject to audit by the California State Auditor.

Bringing in the State Auditor is a great idea. The Air Resources Board could use a dose of this transparency as well.

“The Air Resources Board, with the authority of AB 32, The Global Warming Solutions Act, has already started down the path of abuse of power,” Gaines said recently on her Assembly website. “I have always been opposed the high cost and ambiguity of AB 32, but now that it is being fully implemented my primary goal is to expose the outrageous cost to job creators in this state.”