Peters is still considered hugely vulnerable. While he was on the San Diego City Council from 2000-2008, the city plunged into a financial crisis over decisions to intentionally underfund pension payments for retirees. This led to national ridicule and the 2005 resignation of Mayor Dick Murphy. Peters’ defensive framing of his behavior during the scandal — blaming his staffers and a media allegedly devoted to inventing scandal — flabbergasted even some of his supporters.

After their huge success in the past three House elections, national GOP operatives have been hunting for a San Diego Republican to take on Peters in 2016 in the belief that the centrist Democrat was one of the relatively few incumbents vulnerable in a national election — one in which Barack Obama would no longer help spike voter turnout among minorities and young whites.

Monday afternoon, it appeared they thought they had their man: a San Diego Republican who stomped Peters in the 2008 primary to be San Diego’s city attorney:

National Republicans are in talks with a potential challenger to California Rep. Scott Peters, whose tossup district makes him a perennial target.

San Diego City Attorney Jan Goldsmith is slated to have a phone conversation soon with Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., recruitment chairman at the National Republican Congressional Committee, according to a source with knowledge of the discussion.

The NRCC doesn’t overtly play in primaries, but an aide there said Goldmith is “a candidate of interest” to run against Peters in the 52nd District. The Democrat was one who got away last cycle, as Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate across the country.

“He definitely is a candidate whose bio is appealing to us, and somebody we are interested in talking to,” the NRCC aide said when reached by CQ Roll Call.

Within an hour, Goldsmith’s spokesman ridiculed Congressional Quarterly’s report as simply wrong. His language seemed categorical:

He has, “No plans to run. No plans to make plans. If nominated, he will not accept. If elected, he will seek a recount,” said Gerry Braun, communications director for the San Diego City Attorney’s office.

Borrowing from William F. Buckley’s jokes in his 1965 run for mayor for New York City may make some smile, but the national GOP won’t be happy. So their hunt will resume for a good 52nd district candidate.

Unless Goldsmith changes his mind. In 2008, when the state judge, former Poway mayor and former state assemblyman ran for San Diego city attorney, he defeated incumbent Mike Aguirre and Peters in the primary and then trounced Aguirre in the runoff.

After his 32 percent to 20 percent defeat of Peters in a head-to-head election in 2008, Goldsmith may not see Peters as particularly formidable.

By John Hrabe

National Journal’s The Hotline released its first list of the most competitive U.S. House of Representatives races for the 2012 cycle. These are the 75 seats that National Journal considers “most likely to change hands in November.”

Interesting observations about the rankings:

* California, the state with the largest congressional delegation, had 10 districts make the list, the most of any state.

* New York’s nine races to make the list received a more competitive score. If the states are ranked on a scale of the races, from one to 75, New York races averaged 40.44, compared to 52.2 for the Golden State.

* Three California races are listed in the Top 30: the re-election campaigns of Republican Congressmen Dan Lungren and Brian Bilbray as well as current Republican State Sen. Tony Strickland’s campaign against Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley for the open Ventura County seat in the U.S. House.

The Hotline’s rankings differ slightly from The Nooner’s “12 Most Interesting Congressional Races,” published by Scott Lay at AroundtheCapitol.com. The Nooner’s list included intra-party feuds, whereas National Journal ranked seats most likely to change party hands.

Rankings don’t really mean much to voters. However, they can influence the party congressional committees and PACs, especially as they decide where to allocate national resources. Based on both rankings, expect Bilbray, Strickland and Lungren to be first in line for major national funding.

The races that made Hotline but not the Nooner are: the 3rd race between Democratic incumbent John Garamendi and Republican Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann; the 36th race between Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack and Democrat Raul Ruiz; and the open 47th race between Republican Gary DeLong and Democratic State Senator Alan Lowenthal.

Here’s how National Journal summarized these races.

* CD-3 is a Democratic district held by Democratic Rep. John Garamendi. Almost three-fourths of the district is new to him, but Garamendi’s 52 percent showing in the June all-party primary was a good sign. In previous years with that system, Democrats almost always improved on their primary percentages in November.

* CD-36 is a Republican district held by Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack. Her diverse inland seat has long captured Democratic imaginations, and she only got 52 percent of the vote in 2010. This year, she’ll have to battle presidential-year Hispanic turnout marshaled by Democrat Raul Ruiz, but the seat got slightly more Republican.

* CD-47 is a new Democratic district. Republicans like Gary DeLong, but presidential year turnout in Long Beach makes victory a tricky proposition, though he has a better opportunity than if the seat were filled by an incumbent Democrat.

Other races

The races on the Nooner’s list that didn’t make National Journal’s radar:

* CD21: a Republican leaning Kings County seat, featuring Democrat John Hernandez vs. Republican David Valadao.

And California’s four intra-party feuds. Because of the new Top Two system, the November runoff features two rivals from the same party:

* CD-8  is a Republican seat in San Bernardino County, pitting two Republicans against one another: Paul Cook vs. Gregg Imus.
* CD-35 is a Democratic seat in Ontario, setting two Democrats against one another: Joe Baca vs. Gloria Negrete McLeod.
* CD-31 is a Republican seat in San Bernardino County featuring two Republicans, Bob Dutton vs. Gary Miller.
* CD-30 is a Democratic seat in San Fernando Valley with the Democratic rivals being Howard Berman vs. Brad Sherman.

While the intra-party feuds won’t affect which party controls the House in January, they could affect the partisan makeup of California’s state legislature.  CalWatchDog.com first reported on how the outcome of the 35th congressional race could determine whether Democrats gain two-thirds control of the state Senate. As an even-numbered state senator, Negrete-McLeod would need to resign her senate seat in order to be sworn in as a member of Congress, thereby leaving her senate seat vacant until filled by a special election.

State Sen. Juan Vargas, another even-numbered Democratic congressional candidate, is almost guaranteed to win this November. His victory would create at least one state Senate vacancy.

In the state Legislature, tax increases are subject to a two-thirds vote requirement, a threshold unaffected by vacancies.