As of Monday morning, two Democratic candidates were locked in a statistical tie for the second spot in the November run-off, with another candidate very close behind. Board of Equalization member Betty Yee was 351 votes ahead of  Assemblyman John A. Perez – 751,691 to 751,340. That’s a lead of 0.0001 percent.

Both have 21.7 percent of the 3.5 million votes counted for far. Each hold a slim lead over longshot GOP candidate David Evans. He has 740,576 votes, or 21.3 percent.

Republican Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin is comfortably atop the field after running up the score in her hometown. Under California’s top two primary system, two Republicans could make it to the November runoff, leaving the state’s 7.7 million Democrats without a candidate.

Too close to call: 926,000 ballots yet to be counted

But before Republicans pop the champagne, election officials must review 926,069 unprocessed ballots, including nearly three-quarters of a million late absentee ballots. With so many ballots left to count, it’s anyone’s race to win. After all those late absentee and provisional ballots are counted, more likely than not, the race will remain as close as it is today.

That’s because the counties with the most unprocessed ballots are almost evenly split among the three candidates. And those top six counties account for roughly 54 percent of all unprocessed ballots statewide. In Perez’s favor, Los Angeles County continues to hold the largest cache of unprocessed ballots, where he bested Yee by 5 percent. Yee did better in Bay Area counties, which are a combined equivalent to Los Angeles.

California recounts: A short history

In 2011, California Watch’s Lance Williams scoured the archives, maintained by Dave Leip’s online atlas, and compiled the state’s definitive history of close elections.

The closest statewide candidate race occurred in 1990, when former Republican Rep. Dan Lungren defeated San Francisco District Attorney Arlo Smith, a Democrat, by 28,906 votes to become attorney general. According to Williams, Smith considered a recount of the 0.39 percent margin of victory.

Lungren’s “landslide” win wasn’t the closest election in the modern era. According to Williams, a 1988 transportation bond measure, which was supported by Gov. George Deukmejian, lost by 355 votes — out of more than 5.2 million cast. That’s a 0.006 percent margin of victory.

In both of those close contests, the losing side did not request a recount, and according to California Watch’s 2011 research, there had never been a statewide recount in California’s history up to that point.

The following year, California experienced two recounts in statewide propositions. In July 2012, a Bay Area surgeon requested a recount for Proposition 29, a $1-per-pack cigarette tax increase that was defeated by voters. In December of that year, a recount was requested for Proposition 37, a food labeling initiative that was also defeated.  Neither outcome changed with the recounts.

Could the current race for controller, which might be decided by a fraction of a percent, be the very first recount in a statewide candidate race?

Get ready for a recount

Odds are there will be at least a partial recount. Under California’s Election Code, Section 15620:

“If an election is conducted in more than one county, the request for the recount may be filed by any voter within five days, beginning on the 29th day after the election, with the elections official of, and the recount may be conducted within, any or all of the affected counties.”

The key wording: “The recount may be conducted within, any or all of the affected counties.” That means that if the current margin holds, it’d be in the best interest of both losers to request targeted recounts in a select group of counties.

Democrats hold recount advantage

The biggest obstacle to a possible recount is financial — the requester foots the bill. Consequently, Perez, who raised the most money in the primary, is more likely than Evans, who spent less than $1,000 on his campaign, to have the financial means for a recount. Yee, too, could likely raise cash from her supporters to pay for a recount. She’d remain the highest-ranking Asian woman in California if elected as the state’s CFO.

Either way, with two candidates and unlimited party resources, Democrats have the advantage in almost every possible recount scenario, but one.

If one Democrat makes it into the second spot once the results are final, will California Democrats allow the loser to request a recount and thereby risk delivering victory to Evans?

Yee’s 351-vote lead over Perez is microscopic in an election involving millions of votes. If that margin remains even close to the same after the remaining ballots are processed, this race ain’t over even when it’s over.

The former assistant U.S. treasury secretary, who is best known for his role in the controversial 2008 Wall Street bailout, criticized Democrat Gov. Jerry Brown for a record that has left millions of Californians unemployed and in poverty.

“Jobs and education. Jobs and education. That’s my platform, ” Kashkari said in a keynote address to the Sacramento Business Review at Sacramento State University. “Our schools, employment rate, and small business climate are ranked near the bottom, and we have the highest poverty rate in the country. The status quo our leaders defend is absolutely devastating for millions of our neighbors.”

California: Home to nation’s highest poverty rate

Kashkari has never held public office and spent 2013 making the usual rounds meeting with the state’s prominent political leaders, elected officials and donors. But it’s his unconventional focus on poor and working class Californians left behind in the economic reovery that has many Republicans excited about Kashkari’s prospects.

“I’ve spent the last year talking with Californians about the challenges facing families, communities and small businesses across the state to determine how I can help give others the same opportunities America has given my family,” said Kashkari, who has spent a night in a homeless shelter and days with farm workers. “Today, the gift of a good education and the opportunity it creates are out of reach for millions of struggling Californians.”

Kashkari has repeatedly pointed to the state’s poverty rate, the country’s highest, as evidence of Brown’s failed record. In November, Brown downplayed the state’s record poverty rate in an interview on National Public Radio’s, “All Things Considered.”

“California is a magnet,” said Brown, a former Jesuit seminarian. “People come here from all over the world — close by from Mexico and Central America and further out from Asia and the Middle East. So California beckons and people come. And then, of course, a lot of people who arrive are not that skilled and they take lower paying jobs, and that reflects itself in the economic distribution.”

Brown added, “So, yeah, it’s there. But it’s really the flip side of California’s incredible attractiveness and prosperity.”

Some political analysts say Brown’s overly rosy picture could be his biggest vulnerability in 2014.

“Californians think the state’s economy is stuck in neutral and that the prospects for future economic growth are dim at best,” writes Bloomberg columnist Lanhee Chen, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “And if he continues to ignore Californians’ interest in real plans to improve the jobs picture, Brown may find himself fighting for his political life later this year.”

Kashkari’s unique authenticity

Kaskari’s authentic style has distinguished him from previous GOP statewide candidates.  

“Kashkari is packaging Republican issues in a way that’s designed to appeal to people who wouldn’t normally vote for Republicans,” observes UT San Diego columnist Steven Greenhut, who was impressed by Kashkari’s passion in a recent interview.

The son of immigrants from India, Kashkari grew up in Akron, Ohio, before attending the prestigious Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. In 2006, President George W. Bush appointed Kashkari to the Department of Treasury, where he helped write legislation to address the 2008 financial crisis. It’s Kashkari’s role as an architect of the controversial Troubled Asset Relief Program, a $700 billion bailout to Wall Street bankers, that has already become a central criticism of his candidacy.

Donnelly, Brown united in attack on TARP

A spokeswoman for conservative Assemblyman Tim Donnelly of Twin Peaks, a Republican also running for governor, welcomed Kashkari to the race with a jab at his record as “the bailout chief.”

“Neel Kashkari was responsible for taking nearly $1 trillion of taxpayer money and giving it to his cronies in the banking industry,” said Jennifer Kerns, manager and spokeswoman for the Donnelly campaign. “We’ll be educating voters about the impact that Mr. Kashkari’s policies have had on Californians. There isn’t a ‘tarp’ big enough to hide his record.”

Donnelly’s criticism was echoed by a similar attack from Brown’s campaign — perhaps the only issue on which the Tea Party favorite agrees with the incumbent Democrat.

“He was a banker at Goldman Sachs, and then his one public policy act was to hand $700 billion to Wall Street banks,” Dan Newman, an advisor to Brown, told Capitol Public Radio. “So it’s hard to imagine how that makes one qualified to be governor of California.”

While his opponents believe he is vulnerable on the issue, Kashkari doesn’t think so. The Kashkari campaign is quick to point out that the Wall Street bailout program recouped all the money spent and earned a $13 billion profit for taxpayers.

“If we could break the back of the worst economic crisis our country has faced in 80 years, then I know we can break the back of the crisis that is destroying opportunity for California families and kids,” Kashkari said in a statement.”If we could get Republicans and Democrats to work together in Washington, D.C., then I know we can get them to work together in Sacramento.”

Brown big favorite to win reelection

Last week, the GOP primary field winnowed as former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonado suspended his campaign. No matter which Republican candidate makes the November run-off, he is unlikely to defeat the Democratic incumbent. According to a Field Poll in December, Brown enjoys a 58 percent approval rating. By comparison, Brown’s predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, left office with an approval rating of just 22 percent.

In addition to the major party candidates, author Luis Rodriguez and anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan are candidates representing the Green and Peace & Freedom Parties, respectively.

This will be the first gubernatorial campaign under the state’s new Top Two rules. Although candidates can identify themselves with a party, they don’t have to. The June primary will reduce the field to just two candidates for the November ballot. Assuming Brown gains one slot, the second slot will be fought over by Kashkari, Donnelly, Rodriguez, Sheehan and other potential candidates.