All eyes on SoCal state Senate race

Good morning! TGIT. Just to piggy back on one thing we wrote yesterday, the only thing standing in the way of a Democratic supermajority in the Legislature is one Southern California Senate seat. 

Democrats are halfway there as the last barrier between them and a two-thirds majority in the Assembly officially crumbled on Tuesday, after the Associated Press determined Democrat Sabrina Cervantes had knocked off Republican incumbent Eric Linder in the Inland Empire.

But to completely enjoy the benefits of a supermajority, Democrats will have to win one more seat in the Senate as well, which means Democrat Josh Newman has to overcome a few thousand vote deficit against Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang.

Currently, Chang leads Newman by about 2,600 votes, a number that changes daily as ballots are still being counted. On Wednesday, Chang’s lead was around 5,000 votes.

The district is split between Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties, with Orange having the largest swath of voters. 

Orange County estimates that there are still 162,778 ballots left uncounted countywide out of 374,397 post-Election Day. 

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• “Federal election officials on Wednesday released an accounting from GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter itemizing dozens of apparently personal outlays by the congressman’s campaign — expenses he has now reimbursed to the tune of $60,000. The list resembles a suburban family budget including utilities, a dentist, a nail salon, Albertsons, Costco, Walmart, Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Trader Joe’s and Abercrombie & Fitch — and also 32 airline transactions, a hotel in Italy and the Arizona Grand Resort.” The San Diego Union-Tribune has more. 

• “When Nancy Pelosi travels from her home in San Francisco to her job in Washington as House Democratic leader, she flies over millions of voters whom Democrats relied on for decades but who rejected the party this year. The Democrats’ shellacking in the election — below-expectations gains in the House plus the White House loss and minimal wins in the Senate — produced party grumbling that the 76-year-old California liberal may not be the best messenger to lead those once-core Democratic voters back into the fold.” The San Jose Mercury News/AP has more. 

• “When the California State Senate convenes next month, Sen. Connie Leyva, D-Chino, says that she plans to introduce legislation to ban all registered sex offenders from school campuses without exception,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

• “CalPERS on Wednesday declared that the Sierra County town of Loyalton has defaulted on its debt to the giant pension fund, a move that means the state is poised to scale back retirees’ pension benefits,” reports The Sacramento Bee. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

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Women make up more than half of California’s population, but only about one-fourth of the Legislature. 

And in November, that’s unlikely to change too much, according to a CalWatchdog analysis.

While an October surprise, outside factor or just particularly good or bad campaigning could change the course of race that appears to be a sure thing, primary results, incumbency advantages, voting trends and partisan makeup of a district can be useful in making educated guesses.

Currently, out of 120 legislative seats, there are 30 held by women — an additional seat is vacant now, having been held by the late Republican Senator Sharon Runner, who died unexpectedly earlier this month.   

There could be as many as 49 women in the Legislature next year, but it is likely that they’ll hover around the same amount as this year.  

In the Senate, women could have as few as five seats and as many as 13 — realistically, the number will likely be around eight to 10 seats. In the Assembly, women will occupy at least six seats and as many as 36, but that number will likely be somewhere between 15 and 24 seats. 

What we know for sure

Republican Senators Jean Fuller, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates and Democratic Senators Connie Leyva and Holly Mitchell are not up for re-election and will definitely be returning next year, as the Senate is on staggered four-year terms.

In the Assembly, every seat is up for re-election every two years, although five seats will definitely stay occupied by women — either because the incumbent is running unopposed (or facing a write-in challenge) or because the incumbents are facing another woman in the general election. Those five seats are held by: Democrats Cheryl Brown, Cristina Garcia and Autumn Burke and Republicans Catharine Baker and Young Kim. 

Because of either term limits or the seat being vacated by an incumbent running for another position, eight seats held by women will be replaced by men as no women advanced from the primary in these races. Those are the seats currently held by Republican Assemblywomen Beth Gaines, Kristin Olsen, Shannon Grove and Ling Ling Chang and one Democrat, Toni Atkins, as well as two Democratic senators, Carol Liu and Fran Pavley.

Runner’s Senate seat will also be filled by a man.

There is only one definite pickup: An Assembly seat held by termed-out Democrat Luis Alejo.  

Seats where we likely know the outcome

Again, nothing is guaranteed until the final votes are tallied, but these nine seats are safe bets.

While the Assembly seat of Speaker Emeritus Toni Atkins will be filled with a man as mentioned above, the San Diego Democrat is expected to offset that loss by filling a seat being vacated by a man in the Senate. 

Because of the advantages of incumbency, district voting trends and favorable lopsided primary results, these eight female legislators will likely keep their seats: In the Senate, it’s Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson (the current chair of the Women’s Caucus) and Cathleen Galgiani, and in the Assembly, it’s Democrats Jacqui Irwin, Susan Talamantes Eggman, Shirley Weber and Lorena Gonzalez with Republicans Melissa Melendez and Marie Waldron.

One female incumbent in trouble 

The only incumbent woman who is on very shaky ground is Democrat Patty Lopez. Lopez finished second in the primary, down 17.2 percentage points to the man she surprisingly knocked out of office in 2014, fellow Democrat Raul Bocanegra.

Best pickup chances

In the race to replace Sen. Mark Leno, who is termed out, Jane Kim led the primary against fellow Democrat Scott Wiener 45.3 percent to 45.1 percent. It’s obviously a close race, but it is a good chance for a woman to pick up a seat.

In a less competitive race, Democrat Cecilia Aguiar-Curry finished first in the primary against Republican Charlie Schaupp in a heavily Democratic district to replace Assemblyman Bill Dodd, D-Napa, who is running for Senate.

Democrat S. Monique Limón finished the primary with a formidable lead against Edward Fuller, who claims no party preference, 65.9 percent t0 34.1 percent. If elected, Limón would replace Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams. 

In the race to replace termed-out, Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez — who is currently under a three-year restraining order for alleged domestic violence — Blanca Rubio appears likely to win. Rubio, a Democrat, will face Republican Cory Ellenson in a heavily-Democratic district.

Two wildcards 

Two seats where women have decent chances to pickup seats, although the odds are slightly tipped against them, are the Senate races to replace termed-out Republican Bob Huff and incumbent Democrat Jim Beall.

Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang saw an opening in the Huff race and decided to vacate her Assembly seat after only one term. However, she finished the primary with only 44 percent, with two Democrats splitting the 56 percent majority. 

Beall is being challenged by Assemblywoman Nora Campos, a fellow Democrat. Beall narrowly missed a majority in the primary, topping Campos by 22.5 percentage points. Campos is considered the business-friendly candidate, so she’ll have to use that to draw upon Republican support to top Beall.

Toss ups

There are approximately 11 races that look as though they could go either way, with four being vacated by termed-out women. Another four are against male incumbents: Republicans Marc Steinorth, Eric Linder and Travis Allen and Democrat Miguel Santiago.  

Looking for October surprises

And there are 11 other races where women are challenging male incumbents, although these races do not appear as though they’ll be too competitive. 

Now there’s a fresh sign that environmentalists’ clout may be on the wane. De Leon has stunned green groups by endorsing a moderate incumbent — Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown, D-San Bernardino — who opposed the push for a sharp cut in gasoline use over another prominent Inland Empire Democrat, attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes. As Calwatchdog reported earlier this year, Brown was indirectly blasted by one of de Leon’s leadership team, Sen. Connie Leyva, D-Chino, who said she was backing Brown’s opponent because “she was a principled human being.”

In a strange twist, the document making the rounds in media circles showing de Leon’s endorsement of Brown contends that Leyva and all his fellow Senate Democratic leaders agree with him.

“I support Eloise Reyes. Period. Somehow the pro tem must have misunderstood my position, although I thought I was quite clear,” Leyva told The Los Angeles Times.

Whatever the logistical problems with de Leon’s endorsement, it amounts to a striking rejection of environmentalists’ argument that they know Brown’s district better than she does. This view was voiced again this week by one of Reyes’ consultants, Leo Briones, who told the Times, “Cheryl Brown can have every special interest and every Sacramento politician … but she still is a legislator that does not represent progressive values or her district when it comes to issues of working families, of consumers, of guns and public safety and the environment.”

Green official: Brown a ‘nice person,’ bad lawmaker

This argument was offered by a high-profile environmentalist in a January Sacramento Bee story that rubbed some minority lawmakers the wrong way:

“There’s no doubt Ms. Brown, who’s a very nice person, has not been representing her constituents when it comes to environmental issues, particularly clean-air issues,” Sierra Club California director Kathryn Phillips told the Bee. “She’s collected too much money from the oil industry and let that guide too many of her votes.”

As Calwatchdog reported then …

Phillips, who works out of Sacramento, is a white UC Berkeley graduate who used to work for the Environmental Defense Fund. Brown, who turns 72 next week, has been a fixture in the Inland Empire African-American political establishment for more than three decades. She co-founded a weekly publication that focuses on black issues in 1980 and has worked on a wide variety of African-American causes in western San Bernardino County.

Assemblyman Sebastian Ridley-Thomas, D-Los Angeles, told the Bee he didn’t care for how environmentalists were treating his fellow African-American lawmaker. “I think it’s a tone-deaf approach. … The environmental community, and the broader environmental coalition, needs to figure out whether or not it’s going to be a collaborator and … work with black California on policy, and shared political goals, or if it will be an adversary.”

Ridley-Thomas is a vocal supporter of de Leon’s efforts to have a Superfund-type cleanup of the Exide battery plant in Vernon.

Chu’s bill to ask state voters if California should become the third state to opt out of changing the clocks once in the spring and once in the fall to maximize after-work daylight hours in warmer months won its first committee vote this month. He is optimistic about his chances.

The reason the move has to be ratified by state voters instead of just being imposed through the legislative process is because daylight savings time is mandated in California by a 1949 ballot measure. Proposition 12 was sold to voters with expansive arguments — that it would reduce juvenile crime, industrial accidents and car wrecks, and help agriculture and save water.

Chu questions such claims and notes that daylight savings time could lead to more energy use because of air conditioners being used by 9-5 workers who get home while it’s still hot. He also cites evidence that time changes are associated with accidents and health problems.

One argument cited by daylight savings fans in northern, colder states doesn’t hold here, especially in Southern California. It’s that since it’s cold most of the year and the sun goes down by 4 p.m. for several months a year, residents get a chance to maximize their time to go outside while it’s warm. 

Why Hawaii, Arizona disdain time change

But California has one of the nation’s mildest climates, at least among the most populated communities near the coast. And the closer one gets to the equator, the less difference there is between length of day in the summer and in the winter.

These arguments explain why Hawaii has never had daylight savings time since achieving statehood and why Arizona lawmakers voted to opt out of daylight savings in 1968 in their warm state — though Arizonans also emphasized the point Chu makes about air conditioning.

The bill, AB385, passed a Senate committee on a 9-2 vote, overcoming criticism from Sen. Connie Leyva, D-Chino, who said she looked forward every spring to the arrival of daylight savings. Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Lakewood, told the Sacramento Bee that he liked the “variety” provided by daylight savings.

The state Senate Appropriations Committee will take up the bill next, but a hearing has not been scheduled yet.

AB385 passed the Assembly unanimously last year. But that was when it was a mundane measure addressing how local governments deal with solid waste. Chu gutted and amended the bill to use it as a vehicle to target daylight savings. The new version will get a new Assembly vote at some point in coming weeks, unless Rendon decides to use his authority as speaker to sideline it.

To become law, the measure needs to be approved by two-thirds of the Assembly and two-thirds of the Senate, then by signed by Gov. Jerry Brown. If that happens quickly enough, it could join one of the most crowded ballots in state history, with 18 or more initiatives expected to be put before voters in November.

A 2014 Rasmussen national poll of 1,000 Americans found 43 percent opposed to continuing with daylight savings. In an online, unscientific poll this February on the Sacramento Bee website, over 80 percent of voters backed California ending daylight savings.

Daylight savings ‘literally creates chaos’

Chu’s proposal is winning attention. A recent article by Riley McAtee on The Ringer — a Los Angeles-based website run by former Grantland boss Bill Simmons — argued that daylight savings was an established public health risk.

Obviously, humanity has to count time — it’s one way we make order of our chaotic existence. But daylight saving time runs opposite to this idea: It …  literally creates chaos: Car crashes, workplace accidents, and even heart attacks are more likely to occur on the first Monday after daylight saving time than on most other days of the year. And it doesn’t even save energy or help farmers, both of which are common misconceptions. Why the hell are we even observing this tradition? …

So, congratulations to California for questioning societal norms and pushing us toward a more efficient future. It’s nice that in a world that increasingly feels like “House of Cards,” there’s a pocket of political activity that more resembles “The West Wing.” Take a bow, Assemblyman Kansen Chu. This is the type of sweeping reform that young political activists everywhere dream of.

Photo credit: Breitbart.com

Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown, a moderate African-American Democrat from San Bernardino seeking her third term, has brushed back the first challenge to her re-election by Eloise Reyes, a Colton attorney strongly backed by environmental groups. Brown easily won her local party chapter’s “pre-endorsement,” getting 70 percent of an informal vote at a recent Democratic Party gathering in San Bernardino — undercutting greens’ claims she was out of touch with her constituents.

In comments to the Riverside Press-Enterprise after her triumph, Brown appeared to directly respond to the notion she didn’t know her district:

“I’ve always believed that the Democratic Party is the party of inclusion that seeks to represent all voices in the community,” Brown said. “I’ve listened closely to the community, voted on legislation with my conscience, and understand the awesome responsibility that has been given to me to represent the Inland Empire as an assembly member.”

The Brown-Reyes fight threatens to open up a rift between African-American lawmakers and environmental groups. Sierra Club California director Kathryn Phillips’ comments to the Sacramento Bee in a Jan. 12 story about Brown were seen as condescending in some quarters.

“There’s no doubt Ms. Brown, who’s a very nice person, has not been representing her constituents when it comes to environmental issues, particularly clean-air issues,” Phillips told the Bee. “She’s collected too much money from the oil industry and let that guide too many of her votes.”

Black icon defended against Sierra Club gripes

Phillips, who works out of Sacramento, is a white UC Berkeley graduate who used to work for the Environmental Defense Fund. Brown, who turns 72 next week, has been a fixture in the Inland Empire African-American political establishment for more than three decades. She co-founded a weekly publication that focuses on black issues in 1980 and has worked on a wide variety of African-American causes in western San Bernardino County.

Assemblyman Sebastian Ridley-Thomas, D-Los Angeles, responded to green criticism of Brown most sharply:

“I think it’s a tone-deaf approach,” Ridley-Thomas said, accusing the groups of using “wedge politics.”

 

“The environmental community, and the broader environmental coalition, needs to figure out whether or not it’s going to be a collaborator and … work with black California on policy, and shared political goals, or if it will be an adversary.”

That’s also from reporting by the Bee.

One unexpected twist in this political rumble is the harshness of the indirect, unusually personal potshot taken at Brown by a fellow Inland Empire elected Democrat. In a statement released by the Reyes campaign, state Sen. Connie Leyva, D-Chino, said she supported Brown’s opponent because “she was a principled human being.”

Leyva’s Senate district has considerable overlap with Brown’s Assembly district.