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	<title>declinists &#8211; CalWatchdog.com</title>
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		<title>End game on bullet train: No $, no project &#8212; and no prospects for $</title>
		<link>https://calwatchdog.com/2013/11/26/end-game-on-bullet-train-no-no-project/</link>
					<comments>https://calwatchdog.com/2013/11/26/end-game-on-bullet-train-no-no-project/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Reed]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Nov 2013 13:00:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics and Elections]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Waste, Fraud, and Abuse]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerry Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Proposition 1A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rail authority]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[declinists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arnold Schwarzenegger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bullet train]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bullet train boondoggle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California High-Speed Rail Authority]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Reed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CHSRA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dan Richard]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Sacramento Superior Court Judge Michael Kenny&#8217;s issued a double-whammy ruling Monday. He barred the use of bond funds for the state bullet-train project until it had adequate funding and complete]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-51622" alt="train_wreck_num_2-203x300" src="http://calwatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/train_wreck_num_2-203x300.jpg" width="203" height="300" align="right" hspace="20" />Sacramento Superior Court Judge Michael Kenny&#8217;s issued a <a href="http://www.mercurynews.com/california-high-speed-rail/ci_24598004/high-speed-rail-financing-struck-down-by-judge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">double-whammy ruling</a> Monday. He barred the use of bond funds for the state bullet-train project until it had adequate funding and complete environmental reviews for its first 300-mile segment. He also blocked the already-authorized sale of $8.6 billion in rail bonds until they had proper vetting by a state committee that is supposed to assess whether issuance of the bonds was &#8220;reasonable and necessary,&#8221; not the incredibly cursory review that they got.</p>
<p>The first ruling was predictable, unless you were one of those who wondered whether Kenny <a href="http://calwatchdog.com/2013/11/07/friday-hearing-will-judge-have-the-guts-to-shut-down-bullet-train/" target="_blank">&#8220;had the [deleted]&#8221;</a> to make the logical follow-through on his Aug. 16 ruling that the project&#8217;s business plan was illegal. The second ruling was a jaw-dropper, in that the government &#8220;bond validation&#8221; process is usually so pro forma. Sharp insider types I heard from Monday said they literally could not remember any government bond anywhere in the U.S. being thwarted this way.</p>
<p>But even though the Associated Press <a href="http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CALIFORNIA_HIGH_SPEED_RAIL_CAOL-?SITE=CASON&amp;SECTION=STATE&amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;CTIME=2013-11-25-15-49-13" target="_blank" rel="noopener">account of Kenny&#8217;s decisions</a> made it seem possible that the project could be back on track with &#8220;months,&#8221; it&#8217;s just not so.</p>
<p>The completion of environmental reviews is hugely daunting. As pointed out by Michael J. Brady, the attorney for Kings County and other plaintiffs, &#8220;It&#8217;s taken [the state five years to get environmental clearance for] 28 miles, so how long will it take them to do 300 miles?&#8221;</p>
<p>Unfortunately, there could be shenanigans that cleared the way for the approvals, such as state and federal exemptions.</p>
<h3>The money can&#8217;t be funny: $25 billion shortfall not finessable</h3>
<p>But the funding shortfall can&#8217;t be finessed. The state began with a $9.95 billion in bond seed money from 2008&#8217;s Proposition 1A. Then it got $3.4 billion in federal funds from the Obama administration. Since then, it&#8217;s either spent or committed to spend about $7 billion of those funds. The $6 billion or so left is $25 billion short of what the state estimates the first segment will cost to build.</p>
<p>Judge Kenny ruled Aug. 16 that state law required the state to have solid financing in place before construction could begin. He reaffirmed that view Monday. And in between, in a peculiar state filing, Attorney General Kamala Harris didn&#8217;t disagree, offering a &#8220;remedies&#8221; brief that <a href="http://calwatchdog.com/2013/10/12/state-offers-no-remedies-for-bullet-train-plans-legal-flaws/" target="_blank">offered no remedies</a> for the project&#8217;s financial deficiencies.</p>
<p>So as a practical matter, we have a project that doesn&#8217;t have a legal funding plan, and it&#8217;s not just a rogue judge who thinks so, it&#8217;s the state&#8217;s top law-enforcement official &#8212; someone who backs the bullet train and has for years.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-53720" alt="patty.murray" src="http://calwatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/patty.murray.jpg" width="220" height="270" align="right" hspace="20" />But <em>can</em> it have a legal funding plan?</p>
<p>Theoretically, sure. But realistically, I don&#8217;t see how, and I don&#8217;t just say that as a project hater. Consider the possibilities:</p>
<p>&#8212; The congressional spigot has been turned off. In the sequester era, domestic discretionary funding is <a href="http://calwatchdog.com/2013/03/10/did-the-bullet-train-die-in-sequester-fallout-maybe-hallelujah/" target="_blank">squeezed to the max</a>. And another point that is rarely made is that it&#8217;s not just House Republicans who want federal funds for California&#8217;s bullet train eliminated. It&#8217;s also Senate Budget Chairwoman Patty Murray, D-Wash., who has fought to end this Golden State pork <a href="http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/sep/21/senate-panel-oks-limited-funds-for-high-speed-rail/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">for years</a>.</p>
<p>&#8212; The state doesn&#8217;t have the money for the project. <a href="http://www.hjta.org/california-commentary/happy-talk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cheerful Mac Taylor</a> may choose to simply ignore the state&#8217;s pension and retiree health-care obligations in evaluating the state&#8217;s finances, but not everyone is that obtuse.</p>
<p>&#8212; Private investors aren&#8217;t forthcoming. As the very first business plan for the project noted, they expected the state government to share their investment risk. But that&#8217;s <a href="http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2010/mar/19/bullet-train-reality-check/all/?print" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not legal under Prop. 1A</a>, because it amounts to a guarantee of a subsidy if revenue falls short.</p>
<h3>So who could come to rescue? Maybe the real Big Red</h3>
<p>So how could the initial operating segment be built? I don&#8217;t see anything that&#8217;s got even a 0.5 percent chance &#8212; except for The Beijing Scenario.</p>
<p>Three years ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger acted as if it were a realistic possibility that China might want to help pay for California&#8217;s bullet-train project, and this Bloomberg News article <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-15/china-says-can-offer-complete-package-for-california-high-speed-trains.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">went along with his premise</a>. In discussions with a New York Times reporter, Chinese authorities seemed to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/08/business/global/08rail.html?pagewanted=all&amp;_r=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">encourage Arnold</a>.</p>
<p>It never came to pass. But the buzz as to why Beijing might want to play sugar daddy to a cute U.S. chick was entertaining and faintly plausible.</p>
<p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-53722" alt="red-china" src="http://calwatchdog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/red-china.jpg" width="263" height="192" align="right" hspace="20" />Having the United States&#8217; economic archenemy help build a huge, futuristic project in the richest, most populous and most famous U.S. state could be a gigantic image and public-relations windfall for China. It could make China look potent and high-tech and the U.S. impotent and pathetic.</p>
<p>But it didn&#8217;t happen in 2010 and I struggle to see any way it could happen now. For all the obvious reasons: $25 billion is a huge gift for anyone, even an economic superpower; it wouldn&#8217;t play well domestically in China, where a rising middle class would prefer the money be spent to reduce pollution and gridlock; it could backfire on PR grounds if critics portrayed it as a wealthy nation being played for a fool by an even-wealthier nation.</p>
<p>But there&#8217;s also this: After <a href="http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Apr/21/tp-bullet-train-the-insanity-escalates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">all the insanity</a> of the past five years from the California High-Speed Rail Authority &#8212; the <a href="http://joshuapundit.blogspot.com/2011/11/californias-latest-insanity-bullet.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lies</a>, the deceit, the <a href="http://www.calwhine.com/now-playing-in-sacramento-jerry-browns-bullet-train-rated-ui-for-utter-insanity/1641/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">self-delusion</a>, the <a href="http://la.curbed.com/archives/2013/03/cali_bullet_train_breaking_the_rules_losing_big_supporters.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener">braying and bluster</a> of authority board chair Dan Richard &#8212; who on Earth would want to be the authority&#8217;s partner?</p>
<p>Beijing is not dumb. Or at least not dumb enough to want to subsidize a project as ridiculously flawed as the California bullet train.</p>
<p>So join me in a toast to the demise of the dreaded state high-speed rail system. Yum. That Vanilla Coke Zero really hits the spot.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll always remember where I was on Nov. 25, 2013, when I first heard that the bullet train died.</p>
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