Darrell Issa sues opponent

Good morning. TGIT. Welcome to December. The election is over, but some of the animosity remains.

Just days ago, Congressman Darrell Issa was determined the winner in a very close re-election race — by far the toughest race of his career. We wrote about the race here.

But instead of going quietly into the sunrise, Issa is suing his Democratic opponent, Doug Applegate, for what he claims were libelous campaign ads.

Issa, the richest member of Congress, is seeking $10 million in damages, and said he’ll donate to charity whatever he’s awarded by the court. The Los Angeles Times/San Diego Union-Tribune has more.

In other news:

• Teacher Shortage: “California school districts have grappled with a teacher shortage for years but the problem has worsened since 2014, with 75 percent reporting a lack of qualified instructors, according to a survey released Wednesday,” reports The Bakersfield Californian.

• San Bernardino Shooting: “But despite piecing together a detailed picture of the couple’s actions up to and including the massacre, federal officials acknowledge they still don’t have answers to some of the critical questions posed in the days after the Dec. 2, 2015, attack at the Inland Regional Center,” writes the Los Angeles Times. 

• Water: “Under a new draft plan, urban water suppliers would have to meet new conservation targets by 2025 based on a variety of factors, including indoor and outdoor water use, commercial and industrial water use, and water lost to leaks.” Capital Public Radio has more. 

• Supermajority: “Democrats who take the oath of office next week in the California Legislature will find their ranks have swelled, with the party now holding a supermajority of seats in both houses. But there are likely to be notable intraparty disagreements on economic issues, none more important than taxes.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone till next week. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @CapitolGab

The Vista Republican, who had been a constant thorn in the side of the Obama administration in recent years as chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee — a position he recently rotated out of — had just a 2,348-vote lead as of Monday afternoon. 

Democrats had made this race a top priority, with a flood of national money and even attention from President Barack Obama himself, buoyed by dreams of either taking back the House or at least seriously cutting into Republicans’ 59-seat advantage — neither of which happened (Democrats did win a handful of seats, however).

It would have been particularly satisfying for Democrats to knock out the person who led congressional investigations into the fatal attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, the troubled roll-out of the federal Obamacare exchange, Lois Lerner and the IRS, and the ATF fiasco called “Operation Fast and Furious,” among other things.

Issa was challenged by Democrat Doug Applegate, a retired Marine Corps colonel with no prior political experience. Applegate was initially thought to have no chance against Issa, the wealthiest member of Congress. But when Issa squeaked through the primary with only 51.5 percent of the vote, it became clear he was in trouble. In the end, Issa did enough to survive. 

“Our campaign overcame a historically difficult environment, $7 million in special interest spending and even President Obama personally campaigning in our district,” said Issa spokesman Jonathan Wilcox. “Congressman Issa stood strong throughout, and his is a victory well-deserved.”

While Orange and San Diego counties report thousands of votes are still uncounted, AP reported the number in Issa’s district was small enough to call the race.

But down the ballot, 10 things stood out.

• Nearly 50,000 people voted for Roger Hernandez, a termed-out Democratic assemblyman from West Covina who had been running for Congress until he suspended his campaign after he was placed under a domestic violence restraining order and was stripped of his committee assignments.

• Congressman Darrell Issa seems to have won re-election. Although it’s still close and the Los Angeles Times had not yet called the race, Issa maintains a nearly 4,000-vote lead over Democrat Doug Applegate. This isn’t noteworthy because Issa was vulnerable and squeaked out a win. It was noteworthy because Issa, the richest member of Congress, wasn’t seen as vulnerable. The Vista Republican, in his 15th year in Congress, has been one of the most high-profile Republicans over the last few years as a constant thorn in the side of the Obama administration. But as national money started flowing to Applegate and an endorsement of Donald Trump appeared to be weighing Issa down, the race tightened.  

• As long as these results hold, Rep. Mike Honda, D-San Jose, will be the only incumbent in California’s 53-person congressional delegation to lose. Fellow Democrat, Ro Khanna of Fremont, finished what he started in 2014, when he first challenged Honda.

• A reminder that California is not as uniformly progressive as it often seems: Voters upheld the death penalty as the maximum sentence for murder. Even more surprising is that a measure to speed up death penalty appeals is clinging to a two-point lead in the returns.

• Republicans appear to have held their seats in the state Senate, beating back a Democratic supermajority. Everything hinges on a Southern California district that extends from Cypress to West Covina to Chino Hills, where Republican Ling Ling Chang, a sitting assemblywoman, is holding an almost two-point lead over Democrat Josh Newman. 

• But in the Assembly, Republicans lost three seats, dipping below one-third of the chamber. In the Los Angeles South Bay, David Hadley was knocked out by former Democratic Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi. In Orange County, Young Kim trails former Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva. And in the Inland Empire, Eric Linder is losing to Sabrina Cervantes.

• While no Senate incumbents of either party were defeated, five incumbent Assembly members either lost or trail. That includes the Republicans, Linder, Kim and Quirk-Silva, along with two Democrats who lost intraparty challenges. Cheryl Brown, the Inland Empire incumbent, lost to Eloise Reyes in a proxy war between environmentalists and unions that opposed Brown and Big Oil and charter schools that supported her. In the San Fernando Valley, Patty Lopez was ousted after the Democratic Party endorsed her challenger, former Democratic Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, who also had major support from outside business interests.

• Orange County, the traditional Republican stronghold, voted for Hillary Clinton for president. According to The Orange County Register, the county hadn’t supported a Democrat for president since the Great Depression. That result reflects a consistent slide in Republican registration in the county, which has persisted for decades.

• Speaking of Orange County, Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez lost her home county in the U.S. Senate race by 9.6 points. Sanchez has represented Orange County in Congress since she was first elected in 1996.

• And speaking of the U.S. Senate race, more that 1.1 million people sat it out. The race made headlines after the June primary, when no Republicans advanced to the general election — a byproduct of the state’s relatively new primary system where the top two candidates advance regardless of party. Sanchez lost to Attorney General Kamala Harris, a fellow Democrat.

Two months ago, Republican operatives feared that presidential nominee Donald Trump would destroy their chances to

Now things look much brighter for the party after a rough stretch for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The Senate appears less at risk because the fact that Trump is the GOP nominee doesn’t seem to be held against GOP incumbents. Gerrymandering appears to have left the House Republican majority safe, perhaps until 2022, after the next census.

But in California, at least, the assumption remains the Trump will drag down GOP candidates in congressional races. That’s why the state Democratic Party is seeking in seven swing districts to target Republicans who are “running on the Trump ticket,” according to a party statement last week as it launched the WrongForCA.com website and related social media efforts.

Four of the Republicans are incumbents: Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, Darrell Issa, R-Vista, Steve Knight, R-Lancaster, and David Valadao, R-Hanford.

The other three are businessman Justin Fareed, seeking the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps in the Santa Barbara area; businesswoman Denise Gitsham, who’s going against Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, who is targeting Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove

Michael Soller, communications director for the California Democratic Party, likened Trump’s candidacy to a “sick joke.”

The best hope of sinking a GOP incumbent may be in Issa’s district, which straddles north San Diego County and south Orange County and appears to be moving leftward from its traditional Republicanism. Issa only got 51 percent of the vote in the June primary and has a higher-profile opponent than in past elections, former Marine Lt. Col. Doug Applegate. Running against a poorly funded, little-known Democrat in November 2014, Issa took 60 percent of the vote. The former chairman of the House oversight committee has endorsed Trump, while also making clear his lack of enthusiasm for the New York billionaire.

In November 2014, Denham won with 56 percent of the vote. Knight won with 53 percent and Valadao with 58 percent.

GOP could take first CA Democratic House seat since 1998

Of the other three races, the most surprising is the battle for the seat of the retiring Capps. The Cook Political Report moved the race between Fareed and Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal from “solid Democrat” to “leaning Democrat” last week after Carbajal’s campaign released a seemingly credible Tarrance Group poll showing Fareed up 46 percent to 43 percent.

But as the Cook analysis noted, California Republicans have not won a congressional district represented by a Democrat since 1998. That was when then-Assemblyman Steven T. Kuykendall, R-Rancho Palos Verdes, defeated Janice Hahn of the dynastic Los Angeles political family for a seat that had previously been held by Jane Harman, who ran for governor in 1998. Harman defeated Kuykendall in 2000, making him the only House incumbent to lose that year.

Hanh succeeded Harman in 2011.

Sales tax on tampons is here for another year

Good morning. Happy Hump Day — happy, unless you were hoping to be able to purchase slightly cheaper tampons and diapers in the near future, in which case it’s not a happy day. 

In fact, Gov. Jerry Brown vetoed a package of bills on Tuesday that would have eliminated sales tax on tampons and diapers, among other things.

In total, Brown killed seven niche tax cuts totaling around $300 million in revenue, arguing the tax cuts should be done as part of the annual budget discussions, not individually without taking into account the broader implications.  

“As I said last year, tax breaks are the same as new spending — they both cost the general fund money,” Brown wrote in his veto message. “As such, they must be considered during budget deliberations so that all spending proposals are weighed against each other at the same time.”

“This is even more important when the state’s budget remains precariously balanced,” Brown added. Brown has repeatedly cautioned against new spending programs, believing that an economic downturn is near, which many say the state is not well-prepared for.

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• “Nearly two-thirds of California voters support a gun-control initiative on the November ballot, about the same percentage of people who say they don’t have a firearm in their home, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll conducted by SurveyMonkey,” reports the Los Angeles Times.
• “State officials received the green light Tuesday for a $2-billion bond project designed to provide new housing for homeless Californians suffering from mental illness,” reports the Los Angeles Times.
• “In the latest twist in a contentious House race, the ex-wife of a Democratic congressional candidate has come forward to endorse the man whom she once accused of stalking, harassment and posing ‘grave danger’ to her and her family.” Politico has more. 
• The proponents’ claims that passing Prop. 55 “prevents $4 billion in new cuts to our schools,” was rated mostly false by Politifact California/Capital Public Radio.

Legislature:

• Gone ’til December.

Gov. Brown:

• Signing a spending plan for $900 million in cap-and-trade revenue at 11:30 a.m. in Fresno. The Sacramento Bee has more.  

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @madds_smithy

Brown signs farmworker overtime bill

Good morning. Even though the legislative session has concluded, there’s still legislative intrigue as the governor decides what bills will become law. 

In fact, by 2022, California’s agriculture workers will have the same overtime pay structure as most other employees in the state after Gov. Jerry Brown signed the measure into law on Monday.

Farmworkers currently earn overtime pay past 60 hours in a work week and past 10 hours in a work day. But starting in 2019, the threshold will lower incrementally until 2022 when workers will earn time-and-a-half pay beyond 40 hours in a week and eight hours in a day under the new law.

Democratic supporters often argued that passing this measure was a matter of “fairness,” while detractors, mostly Republicans, said farming isn’t like other professions, as it’s susceptible to uncertainty caused by weather delays, perishable goods, seasonal schedules and external price setting. 

CalWatchdog has more.  

In other news:

• Republican Congressman Darrell Issa’s challenger, “retired Marine Colonel Douglas Applegate — a Southern California Democratic House candidate who was endorsed Monday by Attorney General Kamala Harris — was accused of ‘stalking,’ harassing and threatening his ex-wife, who was granted two temporary restraining orders, according to court records on file in Orange County, California,” writes Politico.
• “Former California Assemblyman Tom Calderon, a member of a now disgraced California political dynasty, was sentenced Monday to a year in federal custody for laundering bribes taken by his brother,” reports the Los Angeles Times.

• “California is using more renewables and less natural gas this summer. Improving drought conditions are playing a role. Power generated from natural gas dropped 20 percent this summer compared to June through August of last year.” Capital Public Radio has more.

• Prop. 53 — which would require voter approval for any project financed with at least $2 billion in revenue bonds — could have far-reaching consequences … or not. CalWatchdog has more.  

Legislature:

• Gone ’til December.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @JohnRieth7

A case can be made that former House government oversight committee chairman Darrell Issa, the eight-term Vista Republican and wealthy tech tycoon, may even be an underdog to former Marine Col. Doug Applegate, his Democratic opponent, based on June primary results and the likelihood of a stronger Democratic turnout in November.

Issa, 62, represents the state’s 49th Congressional District. It spans from Del Mar to Dana Point, with the largest chunk of voters in Oceanside and Carlsbad, and is perceived as Republican territory. In 2014, Issa coasted to re-election with 60 percent of the vote against an unknown, poorly funded Democrat.

But in the June 8 primary, Issa won only 51 percent of the vote. Former Marine Col. Doug Applegate won 45 percent, with an independent candidate running as a marijuana advocate pulling the remaining votes. In the San Diego County vote — about 65 percent of the district — Issa only won 49 percent to 48 percent.

Issa downplayed the result, saying turnout was unusually strong in Democratic precincts for a primary. 

Quirky Republicans on San Diego coast

However, Issa is vulnerable on other grounds as well. Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine, is a good fit for his east San Diego County district with his social and religious conservatism. But such GOP candidates don’t play well on the wealthy coast, where social conservatism isn’t as important to many Republican voters as being simultaneously pro-business and good on the environment. Moderate Republicans such as San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and longtime county Supervisor Ron Roberts fit this mold.  

This unorthodoxy may be why Issa’s use of the government oversight committee to go after the Obama administration on many issues may have provided red meat for Republican candidates across the nation, but didn’t appear to resonate as well in the 49th district. It has seen a decrease of 10,000 registered GOPers since 2012.

Meanwhile, in Applegate, local Democrats have a candidate who hits a San Diego County sweet spot. The county has more active and retired military residents than any other county in the U.S. and his background as both a military lawyer and command officer is sure to play well. Camp Pendleton, the giant Marines base, is the largest employer in the 49th district.

The contrast with Applegate’s history and Issa’s tumultuous, brief stint in the Army is ready-made for attack ads. Among other issues, he was accused of car theft by a fellow soldier.

Applegate, 62, has  lived in north San Diego County since 1981.

Despite his pluses, some GOP strategists downplay Applegate’s chances. Nearly 40 percent of the district’s registered voters are Republican, with 31 percent Democrats and 24 percent decline-to-state. Only 13 percent of district voters are Latinos, the group most likely to be upset with Issa’s increasingly enthusiastic support for Trump.

Issa’s net worth is the highest in Congress — a minimum of $299 million, according to official documents. He will not be outspent by Applegate.

But strange things have happened in presidential elections in San Diego County local races. In 2012, President Obama’s coattails lifted Rep. Bob Filner to victory in the San Diego mayor’s race despite ample evidence that Filner was a loose cannon with an anger problem and a vengeful streak. Filner resigned in 2014 after being accused by more than 20 women of improper advances and of allegedly trading administrative approvals for favors from developers.

But Applegate doesn’t have such baggage, and his emergence has such Issa critics as Daily Kos overjoyed.

Not that long ago, the Vista Republican was on top of the political world.

Through his former perch atop the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Issa stood as the face of GOP opposition against President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Issa’s investigations into the fatal attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, the troubled roll-out of the federal Obamacare exchange, Lois Lerner and the IRS, and the ATF fiasco called “Operation Fast and Furious” all helped earn him the distinction of Conservative of the Year, as well as countless national media appearances.

And now, just two and a half years later, Issa is in one of the toughest political fights of his 15-year career, according to his hometown paper, having squeaked through the primary election earlier this month with just 51.5 percent of the vote.

Observers say the challenge is overstated. And Issa’s camp isn’t worried, noting that while the race was close, it still ended with Issa on top — a forecast of what’s to come.

“While the election night number was what it was, I think a longer look at the whole story shows that we withstood — rather than was walloped by — the registration surge, heavy Dem turnout and no competitive GOP race,” said Issa spokesman Jonathan Wilcox.

The threat

Issa has fallen in stature since he rotated out of his Oversight chairmanship. And the rise of Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has led to a surge in voter registration to oppose him.

Many believe Trump’s unpopularity (70 percent of Americans see him unfavorably, according to a recent poll) will hurt GOP incumbents all over the country. And Issa endorsed the business and reality television tycoon a month before the primary.

“Darrell Issa is only in trouble if a Trump fiasco drags down the entire Republican ticket everywhere, the House flips, and a swarm of locusts descends,” said Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego. “If November is simply normal political circumstances or even a fairly bad year to be a Republican, he is still safe.”

His challenger

Issa’s Democratic challenger, Doug Applegate, a retired Marine Corps colonel, exceeded low expectations against Issa, who has the benefit of incumbency, party identification in a right-leaning district, a national profile and all the money — both through fundraising and his personal fortune — that he’ll ever need to retain the seat.

The district splits the San Diego and Los Angeles media markets, two of the most expensive in the country. Applegate will need a lot more than the almost $14,000 he has in his campaign account to build his name recognition and to offset whatever messaging Issa can produce with the $3.7 million he is sitting on. 

“Likely Republican”

The primary results were not lost on political handicappers. Sabato’s Crystal Ball out of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics downgraded the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. But Issa is still predicted to retain the seat despite the downgrade.

“Ultimately, Issa should be fine,” wrote Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “Remember, a ‘Likely’ rating means that one side is still clearly favored over the other.”

Democrats smell blood

The 49th Congressional district is a heavily military district that includes Camp Pendleton and much of north San Diego County and deep south Orange County.

Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district 40 percent to 31 percent. This time four years ago, Republicans were 43 percent of the registered voters in the district, compared to 29 percent for Democrats.

According to the right-leaning Newsmax, national Democrats see Issa as vulnerable. But it wasn’t that long ago when Issa was seen as weak following a 16-day partial government shutdown in 2013. He won the following re-election by 20 percentage points.