Since 1998, Republican candidates for governor in California have gotten 38 percent, 42 percent, 56 percent, 41 percent and 40 percent in the general election. Will that figure be 0 percent in this November’s race?

That is the consensus of state pundits and analysts with former Sacramento Rep. Doug Ose becoming the third GOP candidate seeking to replace termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown, joining Huntington Beach Assemblyman Travis Allen and Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox. Unless one of the three Republicans breaks out as the strong favorite of the expected 40 percent GOP share of June primary voters, there is a good chance that the November election will pit Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom against former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa – two Democrats.

“It gets very hard to do the math to find some scenario where a Republican gets enough votes to slip into the runoff,” Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, told the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s a math problem. It makes a Dem-on-Dem race more likely if you continue to split the Republican vote.”

“I think Doug Ose’s heart is in the right place … but he further dilutes the field,” Bill Whalen, a fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, told the Los Angeles Times. “If all the Republicans stay in, it’s mutually assured destruction.”

In the most recent major poll – released by the Public Policy Institute of California in late November – Newsom had 23 percent, Villaraigosa 18 percent, Cox 9 percent, state Treasurer John Chiang 9 percent and Allen 6 percent.

Ose told the Chronicle that the state GOP establishment privately hailed his decision to join the race. Like Ose, Cox is a wealthy businessman who can self-fund his campaign if necessary. But Cox has never held office. Allen, meanwhile, has little name recognition and has struggled to raise funds.

Allen hammers Cox for not voting for Trump in 2016

Cox is launching a statewide radio ad campaign this week targeting Newsom for high state taxes. Allen, meanwhile, is bidding to become the breakout GOP candidate by emphasizing his leadership of one attempt to overturn the unpopular gas tax hike approved by the Legislature last year and his support for President Donald Trump.

In their first debate on Jan. 4 in Mentone – before Ose joined the race – Allen slammed Cox over and over for voting for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson in the 2016 presidential election.

“If you didn’t vote for the Republican nominee for president in 2016, you supported Hillary Clinton,” Allen said, according to an L.A. Times account. “If you’re not voting for Trump, you’re voting for crooked Hillary.”

Cox has said he shunned Trump in 2016 not because of Trump’s various controversies that campaign season but because of his history of voting for Democrats. Cox expresses regret for backing Johnson and says he is now a Trump admirer. Ose has been a consistent supporter of Trump.

Polls suggest the U.S. Senate race in November will have only Democratic candidates as well. With no high-profile GOP candidate yet in the picture and hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer deciding against running, incumbent Dianne Feinstein seems poised for a November showdown with Senate President Kevin de León.

Chronicle senior political writer Joe Garofoli suggested the lack of Republican candidates for the state’s two top elections could hurt GOP turnout. But November ballot measures affecting taxes, guns and public education could still generate substantial Republican interest – especially the bid to repeal the gas tax hike and an attempt by Democrats to roll back parts of Proposition 13 to allow for annual tax hikes on commercial properties.

The first-term Democratic Senator from Massachusetts earned a rousing applause and standing ovation from convention delegates as she blamed the country’s income inequality and decline of the middle class on Ronald Reagan and three decades of Republican economic policies.

“The epicenter of the political earthquake that shook America’s middle class to its core started right here in California — right here with your former Governor Ronald Reagan,” Warren said as convention delegates cheered her on. “For more than 30 years, starting with Ronald Reagan, the Republican leadership latched onto an idea it called trickle-down economics, and then they got to work.”

She continued, “They attacked wages, they attacked pensions, they attacked health care, they attacked unions, they attacked education, they attacked science, they attacked financial regulation.”

Democrats divided on economic policies

Warren’s speech to convention delegates was only one example of the growing divide between moderate, business-friendly Democrats and those considered to be the true champions of progressive causes. At this weekend’s convention, progressive speakers offered subtle quips and direct jabs at party members who have strayed from what they see as party orthodoxy.

President Obama, who is currently pushing for congressional approval of a Pacific Rim trade agreement, wasn’t immune from the criticism.

California Democratic Party Chairman John Burton, a hero of the progressive wing, used his introductory remarks at Saturday’s floor session to criticize the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership as just “another way of saying ‘take jobs away from American workers and send them overseas.'”

Considered the most significant free-trade agreement since the North American Free Trade Agreement signed in 1994, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, known simply as TPP, would reduce tariffs and other trade barriers among the United States and a dozen Pacific Rim countries, including Japan, Australia, Singapore and Malaysia.

“In San Francisco, we used to have a fairly sized garment industry, that’s gone — shipped overseas,” the former state Senator reminded delegates. “We had manufacturing companies, those jobs are gone.”

Burton lamented that new trade deals “help big business, and American workers get screwed and the business guys gets rich.” He also assured delegates that Warren was on their side in the economic split, calling her “the f-ing champion of the American people.”

Rep. Ami Bera targeted by labor

Organized labor made clear that even Democratic elected officials that currently represent swing districts would not be excluded from criticism over the trade deal. Outside of the Anaheim Convention Center, protesting workers held signs singling out Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove, for “railroading working families” with a free-trade agreement that they see as the “fast track to no work.”

“Ami Bera, you’re no good,” a lead protester chanted to the communal reply, “Treat the worker like you should.”

The second-term Congressman narrowly defeated former Rep. Doug Ose last November by less than 1 percent of the vote. He is considered one of the top targets for Congressional Republicans in 2016.

Bera’s trouble at the convention is the second time this month that he’s been in hot water related to the controversial trade agreement. Earlier this month, Bera admitted to plagiarizing an op-ed piece featured in the Sacramento Bee. Republicans wasted no time in capitalizing on that misstep.

“With more evidence of Ami Bera’s cut-and-paste public policy coming to light, the hardworking people in his district have every right to question Bera’s honesty and leadership,” Zach Hunter, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement released earlier this month. “With his history of plagiarism, how can 7th District families trust Ami Bera to shoot straight with them on important issues?”

Tom Steyer dragged into rift

Influential Democratic donor Tom Steyer could soon be dragged into the party’s rift over economic issues.

On Friday, the billionaire climate change activist urged Democrats to support his plan for a statewide ballot measure to impose an oil extraction tax. By Saturday afternoon, Steyer’s critics attacked his silence on the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and questioned his financial ties to the trade deal.

“Today CA Democratic Party Chair John Burton joined progressive leaders such as Senator Elizabeth Warren in opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” said Sabrina Lockhart, communications director for Californians for Energy Independence. “Tom Steyer, by far the party’s biggest donor, has not stated his position on the TPP, perhaps because he is still invested in Farallon, which stands to benefit from the TPP.”

She added, “This is odd given he is positioning himself as the party’s progressive, environmental leader, and criticisms from groups like the Sierra Club that the trade agreement is weak on the environment.”