The state’s primary system pushes the top two candidates into the general election, regardless of party. As it stands now, Republicans will likely be out of the running after next Tuesday when voters submit their ballots.

If Republicans could coalesce around one candidate, they’d have a shot at one candidate making the November runoff. Republican candidates account for 20 percent of the vote among likely voters, with Sanchez, of Santa Ana, polling at 14 percent. 

However, the five highest-polling Republican candidates are between three and four percent a piece, with each having little incentive to drop out in favor of another. And none of the Republican candidates are well known and have raised little money to increase their name ID.  

“Republicans probably wish that someone could clear the field and unite the party behind one candidate,” said John J. Pitney, Jr., a Roy P. Crocker professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. “But nobody has that power.” 

Harris leads with 30 percent, having the backing of the California Democratic Party. But a large percentage of respondents are undecided —  27 percent said they either hadn’t made up their minds or are not voting — meaning a lot can happen on Tuesday.

Top Two

The top-two system, approved by voters in 2010, theoretically favors more moderate candidates by removing partisan primaries.

While Sanchez is widely viewed as the more centrist candidate, as one of the few remaining members of the fiscally-conservative Blue Dog Democrat coalition, Harris has nearly double the support among those who have declined to state a party preference, 16 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

But neither Harris nor Sanchez are polling well with Republicans, five percent and four percent, respectively. It’s unclear which way voters would lean after June, once the field narrows.

“It’s always a fallacy to extrapolate from a primary to tell what’ll happen in the general,” said Democratic strategist Garry South, who is not working with any of the candidates.

Voters want a dealmaker 

Another poll from last week showed 69 percent of voters prefer someone who “is willing to make compromises to get legislature passed over one who holds true to their beliefs without compromise.”

Despite her liberal philosophy and voting record, Boxer long ago mastered the art of legislating. Even at a time when Congress is getting little done, she managed to broker a deal last year on a highway bill with her ideological opposite, Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla.

Harris does not have legislative experience for voters to draw from. Sanchez has run heavily on her reputation as a dealmaker, having made Congressional Quarterly’s recent list of the 25 most influential women in Washington, for being a “debate shaper and swing vote.”

With her legislative abilities, Sanchez changed how sexual assaults in the military are reported and tracked, thereby increasing accountability and consistently helped secure federal funding for Orange County’s groundwater replenishment system which provides water to millions of residents.

Yet the polls show voters still turning to Harris in larger numbers. South attributed this to Harris’ statewide name recognition, compared to Sanchez’s limited reach to mainly within her congressional district.

“She is a representative of one of the 53 seats in California, nobody knows her in the other 52,” South said, adding that a Democrat on Democrat race in the general could change the dynamic. 

Republicans

Arguably the two most well-known Republicans in the race are two former state party chairmen, Tom Del Beccaro and Duf Sundheim. Ron Unz, who ran for governor against fellow Republican Governor Pete Wilson and is an outspoken critic of bilingual education, seemed to raise his profile substantially during the two debates.

None of the three have raised enough money to compete though. Sundheim has raised $621,000, Del Beccaro has raised $365,000 and Unz has raised almost $52,000. All of that is nominal compared to Harris, who has raised almost $10 million, and Sanchez, who has raised $3.5 million.  

In a state with several expensive media markets and without any noteworthy amount of name ID, the financial shortcomings of the Republican candidates is holding them back.

“Nobody knows who any of them are and none have two nickles to rub together,” said South.

Particularly for a seat that’s rated “Safe Democrat” by The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Republican donors will largely look to spend money elsewhere on more competitive races. 

“Even if they could get a GOP candidate into the top two, that person would still lose the general election,” said Pitney. “The GOP leadership has to focus its very scarce resources on races it might win.”

Unlike the House, where the strength is in building coalitions, individual senators have a lot of power — the place runs almost entirely on unanimous consent. Personal relationships matter and senators don’t respect those they don’t respect or those who can’t keep their promises.

Especially in an increasingly partisan world, the ability to make friends across the aisle is key in the Senate. For example, Boxer was successful on transportation legislation because she was able to find common ground with Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., with whom she disagreed with on almost everything else.

“Relationships are very important in a Senate that runs on consensus,” said Jim Manley, former spokesman for Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Sanchez, an Orange County congresswoman, is running against fellow Democrat Kamala Harris, the state Attorney General and frontrunner in both polling and fundraising, as well as two former state Republican party chairs, Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro.

Harris, Sundheim and Del Beccaro all lack prior legislative experience. Sanchez says she’s the only candidate who is “ready to hit the ground running on Day 1.” While her time in the House would give her a structural advantage (if elected) over other freshman, the issues any of them would be able to fight for would be largely determined by their committee assignments.

Committee Assignments

The Senate as an institution puts a lot of value in seniority — it’s how committee assignments and office space are doled out. It used to be culturally important too, when new senators were expected to stay quiet and learn for a year, although that’s waning in modern times.

Committees are where senators do the vast majority of their work. Bills usually go through committee before heading to the floor. So senators need to either usher their bills through committee themselves or have someone who sits on the committee usher it through for them.

While candidates talk about what they’ll do when they get to Washington, it really comes down to what committees they are assigned to. In fact, instead of going to Washington to change the world and push a laundry list of party priorities — as candidates often talk about on the campaign trail — the first few years are spent getting on the good side of their committee chairs and ranking members, rising in seniority, gaining clout by cosponsoring bills and working with others, becoming an expert in a policy and then finally starting to move legislation through committee.

The leadership determines assignments. Senators will request what committees they want to be assigned to, but the caucus leadership will decide assignments based on expertise and need.

Manley said that Reid, who is retiring, used to spend a great deal of time post-election working with the new senators to fill spots based on where the vacancies were, making sure committees were adequately represented by the different regions of the country, and of course taking into consideration what the new members want — although there were no guarantees.

Senators usually serve on at least three committees, and prior experience is a factor. There’s a good chance that a state attorney general like Harris would be assigned to the Judiciary Committee. And there’s a good chance Sanchez would be assigned to Armed Services or Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committees, since she currently serves on similar committees in the House.

With Boxer leaving, there will be an opening on the Environment and Public Works Committee, which is a prime spot for a Californian as this committee has jurisdiction over roads and environmental policy. So a Californian could make the case for this assignment based on regional representation. And a nod from Boxer could help too.

Boxer will also leave an opening on the Foreign Relations Committee, where senators can boost their foreign policy credentials — a nice launch pad for a presidential run, if any of them feel so inclined (as the saying goes: every senator sees a future president when they look in the mirror).

Former or current members of Foreign Relations are: President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.

History

In the old days, the motto was freshman should be seen and not heard. In fact, the maiden speech was a big deal — freshman wouldn’t speak on the floor for a year.

The tradition has eroded over the years. In 2015, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., waited just a few months into his term to deliver his maiden speech. And Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., made news by actually waiting a year — the only freshman in a class of 13 to do so.

How will experience help?

Besides Sanchez, none of the top candidates have legislative experience. But, according to Manley, Harris’ time as AG gives her other experience, like running a large department and being decisive.

Structurally, Sanchez’s 19 years in the House gives her an advantage over other freshman, since multiple senators are sworn in on the same day. Ties in seniority need to be broken somehow.

Priority is given to former senators, then former members of the House, then former presidents, vice presidents, cabinet members and governors. If none of those apply, then it falls on population of the state. And if that doesn’t work, it goes by alphabetical order.

Sanchez has served with many current senators over the years, since many were elected out of the House. She’s also served on conference committees (when the two chambers come together to work out the differences between the House version of a bill and the Senate version). She’s also served on the Joint Economic Committee, which has members of both chambers on it.

But her experience and existing relationships alone may not get her more respect on the other side of the Capitol. Sanchez would have to prove herself just like the others.

“You either demonstrate you have the chops or not,” said Manley.

Read more: “Sanchez: Don’t Touch the Filibuster“

The deck may be stacked against Republicans in California, but Duf Sundheim isn’t discouraged. The former California Republican Party chairman and small business attorney says that his underdog campaign for U.S. Senate is motivated by a desire to give average people “a voice in their government.”

“The people of California are tired of the professional political class of both parties who make promises that they never keep,” Sundheim said. “For over a decade, we have taken on the establishment of both parties and won.”

If Sundheim’s independent message doesn’t sound like the 2016 GOP presidential contenders, that’s because of the unique electoral landscape in California.

Top 2: Only Democratic options

Next year’s U.S. Senate race will be the first such election under California’s Top 2 Primary, which advances the top two primary candidates to the general election regardless of political party. Although Republicans struck out in every statewide race last November, the party succeeded in getting a candidate through the June primary election and onto the November general election ballot for every partisan statewide race. But only barely.

The June 2014 primary for state controller ended in a virtual four-way tie between two Democrats and two Republicans. Most political analysts believe that the Republican candidates, including an unknown candidate that spent $100 on a four-word ballot statement, were aided by the historically low turnout.

It won’t take much for Democrats to improve on those numbers. Historically, voter turnout is higher in presidential election years than in gubernatorial election years. Moreover, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ insurgent challenge to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination could further boost turnout among CA Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by 2.68 million voters.

Early polling show the effects of that favorable electoral landscape for Democrats. A Field Poll of more than 1,000 registered voters taken from September 17 to October 4 found Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez safely in second place to frontrunner Attorney General Kamala Harris. Sundheim and his fellow Republican candidates, Asm. Rocky Chavez and former California Republican Party Chairman Tom Del Beccaro, managed only single digits.

“Both Harris and Sanchez are better known and are much more favorably regarded among the state’s likely voters than any of the three Republicans,” wrote Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. “As the election nears, this may create as much interest to who finishes second as to who wins the primary, since it will likely determine whether the fall general election will be a traditional Democrat vs. Republican affair or one that pits two Democrats against one another.”

Builds on Kashkari’s rhetoric

In an effort to prevent an all-Democrat November U.S. Senate showdown, Sundheim has built on the rhetorical foundation laid by 2014 GOP gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari to appeal to independent voters by focusing on jobs and poverty. Sundheim says the state has “suffered and economic earthquake,” which has left millions in poverty.

“We have seen one of the greatest accumulations of wealth in history, but 8.9 million Californians live in poverty,” he said, referring to an issue first raised by Kashkari’s gubernatorial campaign. “There are more people living in poverty in California than there are people in Nevada, Hawaii and Oregon combined.”

He added, “Now the fastest growing path to the middle class is a government job.”

Sundheim has shared this message and his experience as a federal court mediator and volunteer settlement judge beyond the partisan political chicken dinner circuit. The Stanford graduate has a track record of reaching across the aisle and working with Democrats that share his passion for improving the state. In 2012, Sundheim supported Democratic San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed’s pension reform proposals, which were overwhelmingly approved by voters.

Shultz, Chambers Campaign Co-Chairs

In his initial fundraising report, Sundheim announced that he’s raised more than $240,000 — an impressive figure without any loans and only three weeks after his announcement.

“We will have the money we will need not only to compete, but to win,” he said.

Sundheim’s confidence comes with a list of big name endorsements, including former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz and Cisco’s John Chambers.

“I’ve had the pleasure of knowing and working with Duf for two decades, and I’ve seen how much he cares about the future of California and is inclusive of every one of its citizens,” said Chambers. “We need strong, principled leaders in Washington, DC who can bring together people from all political perspectives to craft workable solutions to our country’s most pressing problems. Duf Sundheim is that kind of leader.”

U.S. Senate 2016: Duf Sundheim Campaign Announcement

The 2016 election, according to the Associated Press, will be “a free-for-all among a new generation of California Democrats.” With the help of California’s Top 2 Primary, California Republicans even have an outside chance of capitalizing on that anticipated Democratic free-for-all. If multiple Democrats split the primary vote, two Republicans could make the runoff and win the seat that’s been held by Boxer for two decades.

That very long-shot nearly happened in the 2014 race for state controller. Democrats Betty Yee and Speaker of the Assembly John Perez nearly lost out to Republicans David Evans and Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin. After finishing second to Swearengin in June, Yee ultimately won in November.

Democrats confident in diverse bench

As CalWatchdog.com reported yesterday, “Boxer’s retirement is the beginning of the changing of the guard in state politics.” California Democrats’ oldest guard, party Chairman John Burton, 82, confidently predicted Democrats would hold the seat in 2016.

“As difficult as it is to imagine California without Barbara Boxer looking out for us in the U.S. Senate, we’re confident California Democrats will have plenty to choose from when it comes to electing their next U.S. Senator,” Burton, an old San Francisco liberal, said in a statement.

So, who are those Democrats ready to take over as Boxer’s successor? Possibly the strongest candidate is one of her former staff members, a man who has gone on to have a successful political career in his own right.

Treasurer John Chiang leads field of potential challengers

On paper, State Treasurer John Chiang, who worked for Boxer early in his career, might be the strongest candidate to succeed her in 2016.

“Senator Boxer has been a stalwart champion for environmental, social, and economic justice,” Chiang said in a statement. “It was an honor to work with Senator Boxer, and I wish her the very best.”

Chiang, the son of Taiwanese immigrants, doesn’t get top billing from political insiders, in part, because he’s been willing to buck the Capitol establishment. When state lawmakers failed to pass a balanced budget on time in 2011, Chiang withheld their paychecks, a move that was heralded by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. As state controller, he also opened up the state’s books by publishing payroll data for hundreds of thousands of public employees.

Those decisive actions have helped Chiang appeal to moderate Republicans and independent voters. It also explains why he received the most votes in the November election after Gov. Jerry Brown. In 2014, Chiang raised more money than either Attorney General Kamala Harris or Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, both of whom receive more hype as Boxer’s potential successor.

Do Harris, Newsom have a pact?

The first names mentioned by the inside-the-Beltway crowd, Harris and Newsom, are sending signals that they won’t run against each other for Boxer’s seat. The two constitutional officers, who share political consultants, SCN Strategies, put their unity on full display earlier this week. Newsom was sworn in for his second term as lieutenant governor by “his good friend” Harris.

Of the two, Harris is expected to run for U.S. Senate, giving Newsom a clear path to governor in 2018. That’s subtly reinforced by their campaign websites. There’s no mention of the AG’s office on Harris’ campaign homepage, KamalaHarris.org, while Newsom’s still mentions he’s lieutenant governor.

But Harris could run into trouble in her campaign for U.S. Senate. Although she cruised to reelection in 2014, she had a competitive race in 2010, when she narrowly defeated Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley. After leading in the polls, Cooley plummeted when he publicly admitted that he’d “double dip,” collecting a pension and his paycheck.

Steyer, Villaraigosa also formidable challengers

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, another strong contender, is sending mixed signals about his interest in the race. Bloomberg’s Jonathan Allen reported the 61-year-old Democrat is “seriously considering” a run.

But according to the Wall Street Journal, “A person close to Mr. Villaraigosa said a Senate campaign was unlikely for the former mayor. ‘The only seat he cares about is running for governor. He has been a legislator and he’s been an executive, and if he wanted to continue his political career, it would only be as an executive,’ the person said.”

Another Democrat playing it coy is billionaire Tom Steyer. In the 2014 midterm elections, Steyer’s Next Gen Climate PAC spent $74 million on liberal candidates. Politico reported last month that liberal activists at a League of Conservation Voters event in New York City were encouraging Steyer to consider a U.S. Senate campaign. “Tom has consistently said that he will consider the best ways to have the biggest impact,” Chris Lehane, Steyer’s political consultant, wrote in an email to Politico.

GOP candidates: Sundheim, Del Beccaro

Among the first Republicans to react to Boxer’s retirement news was San Diego County Republican Party Chairman Tony Krvaric.

“Being a far left Senator, Barbara Boxer never met a tax increase, regulation, or intrusion on personal freedom she didn’t support,” said Krvaric, one of the state’s most successful GOP party leaders. “Californians deserve a Senator who understands the needs of the average citizen — not out-of-touch San Francisco elites.”

That, at least momentarily, signaled the possibility that California’s top Republican official, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, might be considering the race. However, Faulconer quickly said he wasn’t interested. Other Republicans who’ve thrown cold water on a bid: former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Rep. Darrell Issa.

That leaves two former chairmen of the California Republican Party as the only Republicans who are exploring bids: Tom Del Beccaro, a Bay Area author and attorney who served as CA GOP chairman from 2011 to 2013; and Duf Sundheim, another Bay Area lawyer who served as party chairman from 2003–2007.

“If I did run, I would run a very different campaign,” Sundheim said in a statement announcing his intent to explore the race. “What I am exploring is whether such a campaign is viable.  My plan is to go around the state, listen to the dreams people have for themselves, their family and their community and then decide.”

Other potential candidates include Democrat Steve Westly, a former California state controller; and Republicans Neel Kashkari, who lost to Brown for governor last year; Meg Whitman, the Hewlett-Packard CEO who lost to Brown in 2010; and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

According to the Los Angeles Times, unnamed sources close to Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, a Democrat, said she isn’t interested in running.