Passed in 2013, LCFF provided school districts with more discretion in how to spend state funding and tied certain grant revenue streams to a district’s concentration of English language learners and low-income students. The changes also provided a boost to state education spending to the tune of $18 billion by the next fiscal year, according to the study.

“A $1,000 increase in district per-pupil revenue from the state” in grades 10-12 led to a 5.3 percent increase in overall high school graduation rates, according to the study. For poor children and African-American children, the improvement in graduation rates was even more significant: 6.1 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. 

“These changes closely track with the staggered timing of LCFF implantation,” according to the study.

LCFF’s effect was also borne out by standardized testing scores, with “average gains in mathematics and, to a smaller extent, in reading for all children.” And again, these improvements were more significant among “children from low-income families.”

And students were not the only beneficiaries of LCFF. Increases in district funding from LCFF resulted in lower student-to-teacher ratios and “significant increases in per-pupil expenditures, average teacher salaries and instructional expenditures.” For example, the study found that a 10 percent increase in “district per-pupil revenue” led to a 2.7 percent increase in average teacher salary, which “may enable the school and district to attract and retain a higher quality teaching workforce.”

Additionally, the study has good news for those worried that LCFF would result in administrative bloat. “We did not see evidence that the increase in district revenue disproportionately increased administration salaries,” wrote the authors. They concluded that “overall levels of spending have increased roughly proportional to their pre-LCFF proportions.”

Nevertheless, some critics of LCFF aren’t sold. Bill Lucia, president and CEO of EdVoice, labeled the study “fake news,” arguing in the Mercury News that the study’s standardized testing data essentially amounted to an invalid apples-and-oranges comparison. He also noted that “the vast majority of poor students are ‘below proficient’ with little or no change over the past several years.”

Assemblywoman Garcia is a rising powerbroker and queenmaker

Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia is mere months away from assuming the chairmanship of the Legislative Women’s Caucus. 

The position already wields great power from its bully pulpit, but the bipartisan caucus appears set for a makeover after November will likely sweep in a large voting bloc of Democratic women to consolidate power in the Assembly.

Exactly how many women is unknown until the votes are counted. But a conservative estimate, based on a CalWatchdog analysis, suggests Garcia and Democratic women could control at least 25 percent of the votes in the Assembly.

In the four years since being elected — and after surviving a sharp learning curve having come from no background in elected office — the Bell Gardens Democrat rose in stature by focusing largely on ethics and women’s issues, with a knack for forcing to the forefront what she says are taboo topics.

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• “In a significant shift in how it grades public schools, California is crafting new report cards with the goal of capturing a more detailed snapshot of what each campus accomplishes. Critics call the new accountability measures an avalanche of confusing numbers and jargon that downplay test scores, obscure schools’ failings and make it impossible for parents to tell how well schools are serving their kids,” writes The San Jose Mercury News.

• “A new survey … has found Californians, like much of the nation, are divided by race when it comes to their views of police profiling and excessive use of force,” writes Capital Public Radio.

• “After a marathon day of testimony, California coastal commissioners voted to deny a controversial proposal to develop one of the largest open private parcels of land on the Southern California coast,” reports the Los Angeles Times.

• After a surprisingly long and excruciating fight over number and location of debates, California’s U.S. Senate candidates have decided on one. The Sacramento Bee has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone ’til December. 

Gov. Brown:

• In Los Angeles today to sign environmental legislation. The Los Angeles Times has more (though not much more).  

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mfleming

New follower: @CapitolAlert

New bill rekindles old human egg fight

Good morning! Happy Monday. Our top story is about a new bill rekindling the old human egg fight.

California women interested in profiting from their eggs — often handsomely — have long availed themselves of private opportunities to do just that. Now, they could have another chance to do so on the medical research market under a new bill.

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• “In wake of Stanford sexual assault case, lawmakers once again pitch mandatory prison time,” writes the Los Angeles Times. 
• “A surge in Democratic voter registration has cut Republicans’ advantage in Orange County to less than 6 percentage points and has doubled the number of Democratic cities over the past year,” writes The Orange County Register.
• Fight over a campaign-funded slate mailer posing as a newspaper heads to federal court. OC Weekly has more. 
• “Bilingual education back on the ballot 18 years after voters rejected it,” writes The Sacramento Bee.

Assembly:

• In at 1 p.m. 

Senate:

• In at 1 p.m. Packed Appropriations agenda starting at 10 a.m.

Gov. Brown: 

• No public events scheduled.

Tips: matt@calwatchog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @APLaurieKellman

Millennials matter in elections

Happy Cinco de Mayo. It’s also Thursday.

Are California millennials a political bellwether?

“With Donald Trump riding high in statewide polls and Bernie Sanders committed to seeing through his youth-fueled campaign all the way to the convention, California has become a large and unlikely test case for how millennials might vote in the general election — both in terms of ideology and simple turnout.”

“Although anecdotal evidence has shaped a popular view of millennials as a dejected and politically disconnected generation, some data analysis has complicated that picture,” writes CalWatchdog.

In other news:

• It’s official: Starting June 9, you need to be at least 21 years old to smoke and vape in California. LA Weekly has more.
• The state Supreme Court will hear arguments Thursday on Gov. Jerry Brown’s  sentencing-reform ballot initiative. The Los Angeles Times has more. 
• A new analysis of education statistics shows California ranking 45th in 2015 in  reading and math assessments for Grades 4 and 8. Less than 30 percent of California 4th and 8th graders were at or above proficient levels in math or reading. The San Jose Mercury News has more. 
• Progressive groups say CalChamber’s annual ‘job killer’ list killing good legislation and has too much influence over state lawmakers, reports the Los Angeles Times. Some of the groups complaining are SEIU, Planned Parenthood and Sierra Club. 

Assembly:

• In at 9 a.m. 

Senate: 

• In at 9 a.m.. Full day of budget hearings. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events scheduled.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @clarklee @judibeecher

National Sunshine Week — an effort to increase and encourage government transparency — has come and gone in California while multiple types of state secrecy continue to draw fire from lawmakers and citizens.

Budgeting has topped the list of recent complaints. “The state of California spends nearly a quarter trillion dollars annually, but taxpayers aren’t allowed to see where that money goes,” warned OpenTheBooks.com, which has demanded state officials release its line-by-line state vendor payments. “This information should be available through California’s open records law, but the last two controllers, John Chiang and currently Betty Yee, told us: stop asking because the records aren’t accessible,” the organization’s founder and CEO claimed.

“The Controllers of California – John Chiang and Betty Yee – aren’t arguing against the law. Instead, they’re ignoring the law and a transparency revolution that is sweeping this country at all levels of government. The Controllers don’t cite a single provision of the California Open Records Act or a legal exemption to justify their behavior, and they aren’t fulfilling their fiduciary duty under the law to ‘assist us’ in gathering the public records.”

Chiang has tried to build a reputation as a relatively pro-transparency reformer. He proposed a law, introduced as Assembly Bill 2833 by Assemblyman Ken Cooley, D-Rancho Cordova, “that would require alternative investments such as hedge funds to publicly disclose their fees to public pension plans,” as the San Francisco Chronicle reported. “The state has committed to contribute $96 million this year toward the university [of California]’s unfunded pension liability. Yet, last year alone, UC’s pension plan paid out $97 million in fees to the hedge fund managers who are delivering mediocre returns for the plan, according to our analysis.”

String of controversies

But in recent months, transparency and accountability have become watchwords for reform across a host of flashpoint issues in California politics and policy.

In education, trouble with the state’s community college system has led its governing board to “begin searching for a replacement for the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges, Western Association of Schools and Colleges,” as the Sacramento Bee reported. “The organization, which regulates two-year schools in California, Hawaii and American territories in the Pacific, has been under fire for an inconsistent, oblique and overly punitive accreditation process.”

“The general fund amount is $122.6 billion, up by 6 percent over this year. Other special funds and spending outside the Legislature’s direct control bring the expected total to $170.7 billion,” the San Francisco Chronicle noted. “The rocket fuel behind these sums is the state’s volatile capital gains tax, paid by the wealthy in good times. It’s a feast or famine levy that rides with economic swings and right now it’s coining money for Sacramento.”

Fire from both sides

But while Brown’s budget upped the ante on public schools, basic entitlements and the Golden State’s rainy-day fund, his unyielding insistence on guarding against the economic worst left his party’s liberal ambitions unfulfilled once again. “Advocates for the poor cheered the governor’s proposed increases to cash aid for the aged, blind and disabled — the first time such grants would go up in 10 years,” as the Los Angeles Times reported, but “anti-poverty advocates said they were disappointed that there was no proposed increase to CalWorks, which provides cash payments to the working poor.” Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles, praised Brown for “historic investments in our children’s education that will make a tremendous difference,” according to the Sacramento Bee. But he complained that “we still have to take a closer look at strengthening our health care system for the poor and developmentally disabled that has been starved for far too long.”

(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

Having failed to deliver during a special legislative session Gov. Jerry Brown called last year, Sacramento Democrats and Republicans squared off on Medi-Cal and infrastructure spending this week.

A large health care hole has developed in the current state budget, driven by the increased Medi-Cal enrollment under the rules set by the Affordable Care Act. But no consensus has formed around how to fix it. “The administration, lawmakers and health plans continue to be deadlocked on Brown’s proposal to expand a tax on health plans to help generate about $1 billion for Medi-Cal,” the Sacramento Bee noted. “Republican critics say the new tax would saddle millions of health plan customers with higher costs. But administration officials have warned that the lack of a replacement tax would force offsetting health care cuts in the governor’s budget,” while some Democrats have joined Republicans in questioning the wisdom of a refashioned tax, the Bee added.

The current tax supplying Medi-Cal with funding will expire in June. “The governor’s chief adviser, Nancy McFadden, has cautioned against relying on the extra tax money coming in,” the Associated press reported. “Even as more people enroll, the program faces a shortage of doctors since reimbursement payments were slashed by 10 percent during the recession.”

Meanwhile, on infrastructure, the governor’s office has also faced an uphill climb. “Brown proposed a mix of taxes, fees and cap-and-trade money that he said would generate about $3.6 billion annually,” as the Bee noted. “But Republicans have vowed to reject any plan that includes a tax increase, and negotiations remain on idle.” Because tax increases require a two-thirds vote of support in the Legislature, Republicans have been able to flex their muscle. But some hopes have centered around a proposal by State Sen. Jim Beall, D-San Jose. His plan “would raise an additional $4.5 billion a year for highway maintenance projects and $1.5 billion for mass transit improvements, such as BART extension lines to Livermore and Richmond,” without allocating any spending to the state’s high-speed rail endeavor, according to the San Jose Mercury News.

Persistent divides

In addition to the two dominant issues they must confront, legislators have placed education, the environment, guns and water in their crosshairs, according to the AP. “But lawmakers will again be confronted with the Democratic governor’s ‘less is more’ spending approach when he releases his budget proposal, due by Jan. 10,” the wire observed. “Democratic leaders are already beating the drums for more spending, pointing to legislative analyst Mac Taylor’s estimate that the state will have $3.6 billion more this year than assumed,” wrote Dan Walters at the Mercury News. “The Assembly’s incoming speaker, Anthony Rendon, wants a heavy state commitment to expand prekindergarten education, a longtime goal of children’s advocates, who contend that it will improve academic achievement.”

But analysts expected Gov. Brown’s new budget proposal to pour cold water on the kinds of ambitions his party rank and file have pushed for again. Brown “will release his budget proposal for the coming year Thursday, amid a strong state economy and fiscal experts’ predictions that tax revenue will continue to surpass estimates from last June,” the Bee reported. “If Brown’s past budget proposals are any clue, the Democratic governor will warn that it all could quickly go south. The fourth-term governor’s spending plan is unlikely to include big new policy proposals.

Federal funds

Schools and universities from the smallest unified school district to the top-tier university systems in the state issued more bonds in 2015 than they had i

A CalWatchdog analysis of data for the year shows 465 securities issuances from education entities. Some were refunding issuances — refinancing existing bonds — but the majority were general obligation bonds, which rely on taxation for repayment.

Most of the issuances came from school districts, charter schools and education districts, while 64 were directly tied to a single community college district or public university system.

A driving factor in the boost in issuances is the increase in real estate values in much of the state, said Kevin Carlin, a San Diego-based public interest attorney with a public works construction background.

“There is a limit in bond measure (regulations) that says you can’t issue more than a certain percentage of assessed value in a district. So once you get maxed out on the value limit, you have to wait for those limits to go up.”

The voter-approved bonds are part of a continued spending surge on education in the state.

In November, voters will decide on $9 billion in school construction bonds. It’s the first statewide education bond measure since 2006. The issue is propped up by big money from the construction and engineering industries and so far has drawn little opposition. The measure was qualified for the ballot via a push from the California Building Industry Association.

Bond measures are easier to pass now than they were before 2000, when Proposition 39 allowed for passage with 55 percent of the vote rather than two-thirds, as before, said Mike Turnipseed, a watchdog in Kern County.

“The threshold was changed, and today, over 80 percent of bond proposals are approved,” he said. “If cities want to issue bonds, it takes the two-thirds approval, but not schools.”

With the bond issuances come big projects. Add to that numerous funding mechanisms. The state’s School Facility Program earlier this year signed off on $113.6 million for 22 districts to use for various voter-approved projects. The program helps school districts with matching funds or to reimburse districts for finished endeavors.

Higher education spending grows faster than enrollment

At California State University in Sacramento, where enrollment grew 2 percent between 2003 and 2014, a $91 million science building has been approved.

The University of California Board of Regents approved spending $7 million for what will eventually be a $150 million research building for the Riverside campus. It will house 40 to 50 new faculty members. Enrollment at UC Riverside has increased 2 percent since 2012. Full-time employee ranks, meanwhile, have grown 20 percent.

“The only way to best serve our students and California is to grow our faculty,” UCR Chancellor Kim A. Wilcox told a subcommittee of the Regents at a September meeting.

The Milpitas School Board in San Jose agreed to pay architectural firm Gould Evans $2.2 million for the design of an elementary school. The school board is set to purchase 6.7 acres from the city for $21 million.

The school district in Oakland this month issued a request for proposals to upgrade kitchens in 16 schools with a budget of $15 million.

Meantime, schools and colleges continue to hire.

The City College of San Francisco will bring on 55 new full-time faculty and 46 administration workers.

University of California regents in July approved salary increases to executives. One executive, UC Berkeley Chancellor Nicholas Dirks, received a 3 percent increase to $516,446 annually.

RELATED:  Developer lobby promoting $9 billion education bond

Between 2001 and 2014, California voters approved $146.1 billion in bond debt for school and college districts, according to a study published in July by the California Policy Center.

“The idea that people are forming is this assumption that property values will skyrocket forever,” said Kevin Dayton, the author of the study. “That way it won’t be so painful for the kids to pay it off as adults. But this is all built on predictions and we have no idea if this will come true.”

The bond debt comes in addition to the billions of dollars handed over to school districts from the passage of Proposition 30 in 2012 which included an additional levy on income over $250,000 as well as a ¼ cent increase in the state sales and use tax.

The revenue is earmarked for education. To date, $13.1 billion has been raised through the taxes.

Many of the schools are spending the money on salaries and benefits, according to the state’s Proposition 30 tracking site. For example, at Harnett Community College District, $5.3 million went to salaries and benefits while $103,000 went to athletics, art, diesel mechanics and a theater group, Western Stage.  

The figures cover the 2012-2013 school year; the usage report for the 2013-2014 year is not completed yet.

Steve Miller can be reached at 517-775-9952 and avalanche50@hotmail.com. His website is www.Avalanche50.com

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, one of the world’s largest pension funds, has found itself in the spotlight. Recently, state Democrats ensured that CalSTRS divested from coal and guns. But diminishing returns on investment have grown the pension fund’s unfunded obligations, according to a report issued by an independent auditor. “As of June 30, 2015, the net pension liability for the State Teachers’ Retirement Plan increased by $8.9 billion to $67.3 billion due to lower investment returns during fiscal year ended June 30, 2015 as compared to last year,” the report noted.

Drawing fire

Critics pounced on the news, characterizing it as effectively an off-ballot issuance of debt equal to what’s on offer this coming November. (“On school construction, a proposed $9 billion bond issue has qualified for the November ballot,” as George Skelton observed at the Los Angeles Times.) “The $9 billion addition is as real as any other debt. Arguably it’s more real because, as the Stockton decision demonstrated, bankruptcy courts are more likely to cut bond obligations than pension obligations,” warned Govern for California co-founder David Crane, referencing the recent high-profile determination that the city of Stockton would not renegotiate pension deals in order to help it emerge from bankruptcy.

“Including interest, this $9 billion debt will devour more than $20 billion that would otherwise benefit schoolchildren. Looked at another way, just one year’s interest on this debt is almost as large as the expected growth in state support for education in the current budget year.”

An uncertain future

But the debt forecast for 2016 has been uncertain. The school construction bond measure has run up against opposition from powerful forces to the left of center. Gov. Jerry Brown, for instance, “is opposed to more bond debt,” as Skelton noted. “And teachers unions don’t want a school bond on the November ballot to compete against their anticipated tax increase proposal.” The CTA, for instance, has so far opted not to take a position on the $9 billion bond. “But the union is working on an initiative to stop the scheduled expiration of some temporary taxes that voters approved in 2012 with Proposition 30,” according to the San Jose Mercury News. “Various proposals are in the works to raise at least $5 billion a year by extending some of those taxes.”

Schools themselves have not been immune from criticism. Seeking a culprit for the derelict condition of many state schools, U-T San Diego blamed “the Legislature’s decision during the Great Recession to suspend the state mandate requiring that districts spend at least 3 percent of their budgets on maintenance.”

“Some districts essentially gave up on such maintenance and have not ramped up maintenance to old levels now that school funding has rebounded. When there is little money in the operating budget for maintenance, some districts — including San Diego Unified — have used borrowed bond money to pay for routine upkeep.”

The controversy over the responsibility of school unions and public pensions for accumulating debt has played out at a time when the costs of CTA’s political influence have increased. “The CTA has become a force in Sacramento by pouring millions into influencing ballot measures and electing lawmakers, then millions more lobbying legislators after they take office,” the Mercury News recalled. “The union’s formidable political operation — spending about $200 million on campaigns and lobbying in the last 15 years — is funded by roughly 300,000 classroom teachers who pay approximately $1,000 each in annual union dues.” In 2016, the union will face two landmark lawsuits — one that has reached the Supreme Court, and another, in California, where the Vergara lawsuit is on appeal.

A populist wave

In a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, conducted online by SurveyMonkey, Californians disagreed on why they worried about the future, but agreed that it was worrisome. “By more than 2 to 1, voters both nationally and in California say they are more worried than hopeful about changes in the country’s morals and values,” the Los Angeles Times reported. “By nearly the same margin, more worry than express hope about the changing national economy. And by 5 to 1, they say they are worried about how the nation’s politics have changed.”

The concerns reinforced the strong impression that Donald Trump has made on Golden State Republicans. Trump ranked first among their preferences for the presidential nomination, winning 20 percent support to Ben Carson’s 19 percent. Trump’s campaign success has largely been attributed to the rise of a populist and nationalist strain on the right.

“Pessimism is particularly profound among white voters, especially those without a college education,” the Times noted. “In California, fewer than 1 in 4 non-college-educated whites say the country is on the right track, and 70 percent say they are worried about the way the economy has changed. Nationally, the worried share among the group is even higher, 74 percent.”

White woes

Some analysts have pointed to data suggesting that the demographic group faces severe challenges. A new study making waves in the national press has revealed an unprecedented, sharp decline in the health and welfare of middle-aged white Americans.

“The mortality rate for white men and women ages 45-54 with less than a college education increased markedly between 1999 and 2013, most likely because of problems with legal and illegal drugs, alcohol and suicide, the researchers concluded. Before then, death rates for that group dropped steadily, and at a faster pace,” according to the Washington Post. “Half a million people are dead who should not be dead,” one co-author, a Nobel laureate, told the Post. “About 40 times the Ebola stats. You’re getting up there with HIV-AIDS.”

Data from the Dornsife/LA Times poll suggested that inland Californians stood closer to that precipice than those gathered along the coast. “In coastal regions, 44 percent of voters were satisfied with California’s economy; inland, just 30 percent, the Times noted. “Thirty-three percent of voters with a college education said they were getting ahead financially, while just 13 percent of those with a high school degree or less said they were. Conversely, just 12 percent of college-educated voters said they were falling behind financially, but 25 percent of those with no more than a high school degree said they were sliding backward.”

The politics of government

Many respondents singled out the role of government as a problem. While almost two thirds said “unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy is a major problem in the United States,” about 40 percent “cited over-regulation of the free market as a bigger issue in the country” and “said that the government gets in the way of their opportunities,” USC observed.

Yet while Republicans have not been able to translate that unease into widespread change in their party’s fortunes, Democrats focused on economic anxiety have used that issue to tug their party to the left. As key activists on the left recently told The Guardian, “a key gathering of activists in California in 2013 laid the groundwork for the transformation now reverberating through the party.” Frustrated by president Obama’s willingness to trim the growth of social security, their “meeting in a San Jose hotel room of groups also including MoveOn.org, Working Families, Progressives United and Social Security Works was an informal spin-off from the annual Netroots Nation conference.”

“Having successfully fought their own president and defended the pension rights of millions of Americans, the activists decided to go on the offensive and try to convince other Democrats to begin talking about expanding social security instead.”