Patty Lopez

Time doesn’t heal all intra-party wounds.

Last November, unknown community activist Patty Lopez defeated a fellow Democrat, incumbent Raul Bocanegra, in the 39th Assembly District. It is — without a doubt — the biggest upset in the history of California’s Top Two primary, which was enacted by voters with Proposition 14 in 2010.

Political professionals were left stumped at how Lopez won. In the June 3 primary, Bocanegra beat Lopez by nearly 40 points, the largest margin of any Democrat vs. Democrat primary in Los Angeles County. In advance of the November election, Lopez didn’t report any expenditures or obtain a candidate statement.

It hasn’t taken long for those unresolved questions to turn into vicious smears and an organized effort to unseat Lopez.

Recall?

Before the first-term state lawmaker could introduce her first bill, angry self-described “progressives” were talking of a recall attempt.

“We cannot wait two years down the line for a chance to rectify the results of misplaced trust and uninformed voting,” Rosemary Jenkins, a Democratic activist and chair of the Northeast Valley Green Alliance, wrote at CityWatchLA.com. “By and large, worthy office-holders must pay their dues first, gaining experience through working their way up the ladder. She has not done that.”

Jenkins even branded Lopez as “functionally illiterate. … As a Progressive, I firmly believe in diversity with all its ramifications, but to be an effective legislator at any level requires fluency in the English language and the ability to communicate well.” (boldface in original)

Jenkins offered as grounds for a recall: Lopez has failed to use her taxpayer-funded office to support patronage jobs for Democratic activists.

“Speaking of the Democratic Party, she, as an elected Democrat, is obligated to hire Democrats as her staff members,” Jenkins wrote. “She has been in violation of this regulation.”

Of course, no such regulation exists and likely would be illegal. Although it’s rare, numerous California politicians have hired staffers of the opposing political party for key positions. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger famously hired Democrat Susan Kennedy as his chief of staff. In 2013, then-State Sen. Lou Correa, a Democrat, hired longtime GOP staffer Damon Conklin to serve as a top adviser and lead his communications outreach.

Lopez’s chief of staff is a longtime Democratic staff member, Lourdes Jimenez, who recently worked for Sen. Ben Hueso, D-San Diego. What’s Lopez’s big staffing crime? She hired Ricardo Benitez, a Republican, to a field representative position.

“What Sacramento is finding out about the newly elected Assemblywoman is troubling, to say the least,” Mario Solis-Marich, another blogger angry with Benitez’s hiring, wrote at LAProggressive.com.

‘Smear campaign’

The pettiness and persistence of the attacks has some constituents questioning whether it’s part of a larger smear campaign.

“It appears that a very well-orchestrated smear campaign has been launched against Assemblywoman Patty Lopez disparaging her ethnic origins, gender, and abilities, while insulting the intelligence of the voters of the 39th Assembly District,” Michael Moncreiff, who lives in Rancho Tujunga, recently wrote at CityWatchLA.com. “All these disrespectful remarks are being callously disseminated one month after the Assemblywoman took office and well before she has commenced her legislative work.”

As recently as mid-January, an attack website accused Lopez of “deceiving voters.” However, the website has recently been taken down and no archived copy was available.

The attacks, to a degree, have galvanized support for Lopez.

“She listens to us and is working for our communities instead of the pocketbooks of a few,” Nina Royal, who is active in several community organizations in the district, recently posted on Facebook. “I am confident that she will work hard to make a difference in our District.”

Another community activist in the largely Spanish-speaking district told Hoy Los Angeles, “Ella representa lo que la gente quiere, es la voz de ellos.” In English, “She represents what people want, (she) is the voice of them.”

‘I will make sure that everyone’s voice is heard’

Lopez, who declined CalWatchdog.com’s request for comment on the recall attempt, has said she’s interested in representing all people in her district, not just politically connected party loyalists.

“I am no different from many of my colleagues in the Assembly because I ran for this office to improve the lives of people in my district and in California,” Lopez recently wrote. “And as the new representative of the 39th District in the California Assembly, I will make sure that everyone’s voice is heard.”

She added, “I am still learning how everything works in the Legislature.”

“Overall, the turnout data show that the surface totals, like saying it was 42 percent turnout, belie the fact that turnout is so varied by age and demographics,” Paul Mitchell, vice-president of Political Data, Inc., told CalWatchdog.com.

A new turnout analysis published by Mitchell’s firm shows wide disparities in voter participation throughout the state based on region, age, ethnicity and past voter history. These demographic factors offer a more complete picture of the lowest turnout general election in California’s history.

So, who voted? Despite their smaller registration numbers, Republicans turned out in higher percentages than Democrats or independent voters. Older Californians showed up at the polls in greater numbers than younger voters. Bay Area counties outperformed Southern California. White and Asian Americans voted in higher numbers than Latinos or African Americans.

Dig a little deeper, and you can identify smaller sub-groups of voters that are a virtual lock to cast their ballots. For example, here’s a fun stat: 90 percent of Republican voters over the age of 65 in Sierra County exercised their franchise in last November’s election.

Age: Older voters show up, younger voters don’t

Before race or ethnicity, age offered the starkest contrast in turnout. Statewide, two-thirds of registered voters over the age of 65 cast their ballots.

“Look at any district and the Age 65-plus cohort had turnout that is about 25 points higher and parallels their turnout in other gubernatorial elections,” Mitchell explained. “In a place like Huntington Beach, you see that age cohort at 72 percent turnout. Even in a low-income community like Santa Ana, nearly two-thirds of those voters cast ballots.”

Younger voters, who rocked the vote for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, weren’t nearly as enthused about the reelection of California’s 76-year-old Democratic governor, Jerry Brown. Just 17 percent of registered voters under the age of 30 voted.

“I think even folks that work with the data all the time were surprised by just how low that number was,” Mindy Romero, director of the California Civic Engagement Project at the University of California, Davis, told KQED. “Youth get very little contact, real contact, from candidates and campaigns. And so it generates even less information, less awareness, less connection with the political process.”

34th State Senate: Lower Latino turnout

In the competitive 34th state Senate district, Republican Janet Nguyen cruised to victory with the help of Asian voters, who overwhelmingly voted by mail. In her battle against former Democratic Assemblyman Jose Solorio, 47 percent of Asian voters turned out for the hotly contested legislative race — 10 points higher than the statewide average for Asian Americans.

Higher turnout by Asian Americans coincided with lower turnout by the district’s more than 102,000 Latino voters. Although a quarter of the district’s registered voters are Latino, this group accounted for 20 percent of the voters in November, moving Latinos from the second largest ethnic group to third, after Asian Americans.

Asian American voters in the 34th State Senate race also had a big preference in how they voted. Among Asian voters that participated in the Orange County-based legislative race, 79 percent cast their ballots by mail, with the remaining 21 percent appearing at a polling place. No other group, based on age, ethnicity or party, came close to this 4-to-1 absentee voting ratio.

Asian American vote-by-mail preference

Although it was highest in the 34th State Senate district, Asian Americans throughout the state overwhelmingly preferred voting by mail, with 70 percent of them preferring that method to voting in person.

On the surface, this preference might seem trivial, a statistic to impress political consultants and data geeks. But it has major implications for the outcomes of races.

Absentee voters make up their minds earlier in the race, affecting how and when campaigns decide to roll out their messages and criticize their rivals. Voters who cast their ballots by mail also contend with a greater number of reasons for their vote to be invalidated, such as a mismatched signature or late-arriving ballot.

State lawmakers have tried to address the issue of late-arriving ballots by extending the deadline for receiving absentee ballots. As of Jan. 1, ballots that are postmarked on Election Day can be received up to three days later.

Online registration produces better turnout

Above all else, past voter history was the easiest way to predict whether you voted in November. Ninety percent of primary voters returned to the ballot box five months later.

Newly registered voters are less likely to vote than experienced voters. But California’s online voter registration program has helped boost turnout.

“If you look at the online registrants by age group and compare it to overall, you’ll find that 18-29 and 30-45 year old online registrants performed 8 points higher than their age groups overall,” Mitchell pointed out. “Asians in those age groups performed 5 points better, and Latinos 7-8 points better.”

Political Data Inc.’s complete voter registration analysis is available here.

“I was a surprise win in the last election,” Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva, D-Fullerton, said in a recent interview of her four-point victory over Republican Chris Norby. “And from the moment I won, there has been an effort to take back this seat.”

Quirk-Silva isn’t exactly giving up her seat without a fight.

As of October 18, the first-term Democrat had spent roughly $2.4 million this year to stave off her Republican challenger, Young Kim. To put that number into perspective, the Democratic governor of New Hampshire has spent roughly the same amount on her competitive re-election campaign, according to recent figures from the Associated Press.

Kim, a former aide to GOP Congressman Ed Royce, is no pauper either, having spent $1.4 million over the same period.

With its two fundraising powerhouses, the campaign for the 65th Assembly District is on track to be one of the most expensive races — at any level — in the country. Combined spending by both candidates, the two political parties and various independent expenditure committees is on pace to exceed $5.2 million.

Spending on the race had already surpassed the $4.7 million mark on October 18, when the candidates had another half-million dollars at their disposal in cash on hand. Those preliminary figures also don’t account for other late expenditures expected to be spent on this weekend’s get out the vote efforts.

Big labor, big business fund Quirk-Silva’s campaign

Just two years ago, Maplight estimated each member of the California State Assembly, on average, raised $708,371, an average of $970 every day during the 2012 cycle. So, where is all of this additional money coming from?

On Quirk-Silva’s side, the funds can be traced back to both big business and big labor through party committees. Of the $2.65 million raised for her campaign, nearly $2 million has come from either the California Democratic Party or various Democratic central committees throughout the state. Those Democratic committees have accepted large checks from special interest groups that routinely lobby the Legislature, including insurance companies, defense contractors, oil companies and labor unions.

Kim’s campaign, which has raised $1.8 million, owes a third of its support to the California Republican Party, which has relied heavily on political activist and physicist Charles Munger Jr. for its support.

Race to decide Assembly supermajority

Both sides have invested big money in the race that could decide whether Democrats hold a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house, and thus have the votes to raise taxes without any GOP defections. And understandably, tax issues have taken center stage in the race.

In its early endorsement of Kim, the Orange County Register highlighted her position on taxes. “Ms. Kim is the better choice when it comes to protecting taxpayers and restoring the beleaguered California economy,” the paper wrote. “In her bid to serve the residents, she has focused on fixing the education system, making California more business-friendly, improving public safety and dealing with California’s crippling water and infrastructure issues.”

Taxpayer groups have also played an active role in the campaign. Eariler this month, Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, took umbrage with a mail piece from the Quirk-Silva campaign that implied an endorsement.

The first-term Orange County Democrat put her name alongside the taxpayer organization’s name, stating their shared support for Proposition 2, the Rainy Day Budget Stabilization Fund Act. The not-so-subtle goal of the slick mailer was to associate Quirk-Silva with the state’s most trusted taxpayer group, which has endorsed Kim. Coupal described it as “the most unusual attempt at deception we’ve seen this election.”

Neither side forgetting grassroots

The questionable tactics by Quirk-Silva’s campaign demonstrate the challenge that Democrats have in holding the seat. Although Democrats have a 1.7 percentage-point advantage in voter registration, the district is considered a “lean Republican” seat, according to the ATC Partisan Index, which ranks districts based on their competitiveness in the 2014 election.

The GOP’s hope for reclaiming the seat stems from a candidate who delivered a strong showing in the June primary. Kim, a first-generation Korean-American immigrant, earned the highest vote percentage of any GOP legislative challenger in the June 3rd primary, garnering 55 percent of the vote in the Democratic district.

She won voters over with her powerful immigrant success story.

“As many immigrant families did, my parents worked hard and struggled, but they also instilled in me the value of individual responsibility and living within a person’s means,” Kim wrote in a personal narrative featured in the Orange County Register earlier this year.

Kim’s message appears to be resonating with Asian voters, who have returned their absentee ballots at a slightly higher rate from two years ago. According to absentee ballot data from Political Data Inc., Asian absentee voting is up a point from 2012, while early voting by Latinos is down a point. The net gain of two points for Asian voters over Latino voters is expected to benefit Kim.

Republicans are also optimistic about the party breakdown of returned absentee ballots. Of the 27,372 absentee ballots that have been returned, 45 percent have been from Republicans, an 8 percentage-point advantage over Democrats, according to Political Data’s ballot tracker. That’s an improvement from 2012, when Republicans held a 6 percentage-point edge in absentee ballots.

Enticing volunteers with Korean BBQ

But don’t think that Kim’s advantage in early voting has made her complacent. On Thursday afternoon, Kim’s campaign enticed Republican activists to participate in the final weekend’s “Get Out The Vote” efforts by offering Korean BBQ.

“We need as many volunteers as possible to contact voters and tell them to cast their ballots for Young Kim, and I’m hoping you can join us,” Kim’s campaign wrote in its latest email alert to supporters. “Our office will be open 9a-9p every day between now and Election Day, with 3-hour shifts of canvassing and phone banking.”

Stay tuned…

On Sunday afternoon, Democratic Assemblyman John A. Perez, who finished just 481 votes behind Board of Equalization member Betty Yee in the June 3rd primary, formally requested a recount in the controller’s race. Perez’s recount, which will begin in Kern and Imperial counties, could ultimately span 15 counties and decide which Democrat will face Republican Ashley Swearengin in the November run-off.

“Never in California history has the vote difference between two candidates for statewide office been so narrow, 481 votes or 1/100th of one percent, out of more than four million ballots cast,” Perez said in a statement released by his campaign. “It is therefore of the utmost importance that an additional, carefully conducted review of the ballots be undertaken to ensure that every vote is counted, as intended.”

Perez’s call for a “carefully conducted review of the ballots” is careful indeed. He’s requested a partial recount in 15 counties where he out-performed Yee. That’s in accordance with state law, which allows any voter to request a partial recount that is targeted at the precinct level.

Although the recount can be limited to select precincts, “all of the ballots in all of the requested counties would have to be recounted and the compilation of the recount in those counties would have to lead to a different candidate winning the contest before the results would be recertified,” according to the Secretary of State. 

Yee accuses Perez of “cherry-picking only 15 counties”

Yee’s campaign balked at the partial recount slanted in Perez’s favor.

“Cherry-picking only the 15 counties that he won, and sorting the precincts within the counties to reflect his strongest areas, indicates that he has no interest in a fair and impartial recount,” Yee said.

CalWatchdog.com’s analysis of the county recount list shows Perez’s margin over Yee, ranging from a high of 31 percent in Imperial to a low of just 1 percent in Orange.

1. Kern +10 Perez
2. Imperial +31 Perez
3. San Bernardino +8 Perez
4. Fresno +3 Perez
5. San Mateo +2.5 Perez
6. Orange +1 Perez
7. Ventura +5 Perez
8. Los Angeles +5 Perez
9. Riverside +6 Perez
10. Stanislaus +5 Perez
11. Tulare +7 Perez
12. Napa +8 Perez
13. Kings +9 Perez
14. Lake +7 Perez
15. Merced +9 Perez

The targeted recount can be stopped at any time, because Perez is footing the bill. A statewide recount could cost several million dollars. According to the Secretary of State’s office, if Perez begins to pick up votes, Yee’s campaign could at “any time during a recount and for 24 hours after it concludes” request her own recount, “as long as it does not include any precincts that were recounted as part of a prior request.”

That could be in the cards, based on statements from Yee’s campaign, which has criticized the unfair nature of the recount process. “No recount is going to be fair that doesn’t include more counties,” Parke Skelton, Yee’s campaign consultant told KQED’s John Myers by phone Sunday afternoon.

Independent election experts agree with Yee’s complaint, but acknowledge that under state law, Yee’s only recourse is to request her own recount.

“It’s completely unfair unless they do a re-canvass of the whole state,” Jimmy Camp, a Republican political consultant and expert on ballot counting, told CalWatchdog.com last month. “Recounts are a crap shoot no matter what.”

Perez’ strategy: Searching for invalidated votes

So, what is the Perez campaign’s recount strategy?

In addition to limiting the recount to counties he won, Perez requested a review of all unopened, rejected vote-by-mail and provisional ballots as well as precinct rosters.

“I am also seeking to review all voted ballots that were not counted in the official canvass, including unopened rejected vote-by-mail (‘VBM’) ballots and provisional ballots, and any relevant information related to those ballots, including, but not limited to, all VBM and provisional ballot envelopes containing each uncounted or rejected ballot, all precinct rosters, and any other materials related to the uncounted or rejected ballots,” Perez wrote in his recount request to the Secretary of State.

That falls in line with the predictions of an election expert CalWatchdog.com consulted last month. “One of the goals of any recount would be to get more of your supporter ballots counted,” Paul Mitchell, vice-president of Political Data, Inc., a company that specializes in election data, told CalWatchdog.com. “So, this could mean going into counties where there is a large potential for ballots that were disqualified because of signature problems, and digging through those to find any that can be challenged.”

It’s unlikely such a strategy will prove fruitful in Los Angeles County. Perez’s campaign already closely scrutinized the counting of late absentee and provisional ballots in his home county. Even Perez’s campaign acknowledged Los Angeles as a lower priority, ranking it eighth in the order of recount counties.

Potential to flip outcome, but unlikely

What are the chances that the outcome will change?

In recent years, California has seen two recounts in statewide propositions. In July 2012, a Bay Area surgeon requested a recount for Proposition 29, a $1-per-pack cigarette tax increase defeated by voters. In Dec. 2012, a recount was requested for Proposition 37, a food labeling initiative that was also defeated. Neither outcome changed with the recounts.

However, those results weren’t nearly as close as the current state controller’s race. A study by the Center for Voting and Democracy analyzed statewide recounts from 2000-2009. According to the study, “In the five cases in which the total votes cast were above two million, the margin shift was on average 0.016% of the vote (fewer than one for every 6,400 votes cast).”

With more than 4 million votes cast in the controller’s race, that tiny margin, 0.016 percent of the vote, would be 646 votes. As Yee’s campaign consultant has pointed out, that figure should be expected to be spread among not just Yee and Perez, but all six candidates who were on the ballot for controller.

“It would be strange indeed for Perez to pick up every vote in a recount with multiple candidates,” Skelton, Yee’s consultant, has said.

Known as the incumbent rule, derived from a 1989 article by Nick Panagakis, incumbents who poll under 50 percent are expected to lose late deciding voters. In recent years, data guru and FiveThirtyEight blogger Nate Silver has questioned the rule as it applies to polling. However, the 50 percent threshold still offers a guide to incumbents that must work in November.

Fox tops list of Democrats in trouble

Topping the list of seven Democratic incumbents in danger of losing their seats this fall is Assemblyman Steve Fox, D-Palmdale. The first-term incumbent barely eked out a victory in 2012 — only pulling ahead of his GOP opponent after late absentee and provisional balloting. Fox will face a tough challenge this November from Palmdale Councilman Tom Lackey, the top vote-getter in Tuesday’s primary.

Lackey’s first place finish is all the more impressive because two other Republican candidates were on the ballot. GOP candidates accounted for nearly two-thirds of all votes in a district that has a GOP registration of less than half a percent.

Earlier this year, a former employee of Fox’s law office alleged that the Democratic lawmaker forced employees in his taxpayer-funded state office to perform work at his private law practice. Fox denies the allegations and says he looks forward to clearing his name in court.

Los Angeles Democrats dogged by ethics issues

Fox isn’t the only Los Angeles Democrat to be dogged by ethics issues. Assemblyman Roger Hernandez, D-West Covina, is currently under investigation by the Fair Political Practices Commission for allegations of money laundering during his 2010 campaign. Hernandez finished first in Tuesday’s election, but was only 2,000 votes ahead of county probation commissioner Joe Gardner.

The 48th Assembly district is considered a safe Democratic seat, according to the ATC Partisan Index, which ranks districts based on their competitiveness in the 2014 election. Gardner, who also ran in 2012, has made Hernandez’ misbehavior a central issue in the campaign.

While a member of the Assembly, Hernandez was arrested for driving under the influence. He beat those charges in court, in addition to getting dismissed allegations of domestic violence filed in a civil lawsuit by Carolina Taillon.

According to the Los Angeles Times, “The lawsuit alleges that on one occasion, Hernandez told Taillon that ‘the Speaker of the Assembly had called a medical team to come to the building because defendant Hernandez felt like he was going to die after using cocaine.'”

Strong immigrant GOP challengers:  Young Kim, Pedro Rios

While some Democratic lawmakers are struggling by their own undoing, the re-election of Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva, D-Fullerton, looks bleak due to a strong challenge in the 65th Assembly district. Small businesswoman Young Kim, a former aide to GOP Congressman Ed Royce, was the top performing candidate.

Kim also received more votes than any other GOP Assembly challenger in the state, garnering 55 percent of the vote in a Democratic district. “As many immigrant families did, my parents worked hard and struggled, but they also instilled in me the value of individual responsibility and living within a person’s means,” Kim wrote in the Orange County Register earlier this year.

A first-generation Korean American immigrant, Kim has raised nearly a half-million dollars from her network of supporters in Orange County. She’s also gained key support from legislative leaders who want to reclaim a seat once held by GOP Assemblyman Chris Norby.

Another GOP Assembly candidate with an immigrant’s tale is Pedro Rios, who illegally crossed into the United States from Mexico when he was 9 years old. “I remember walking quite a bit, and then a car picked me up,” Rios told the Bakersfield Californian in 2012. “It is a dangerous journey … I was scared.”

Below is the list of Assembly members, ranked by percent of Tuesday’s primary vote. Also shown is the number of votes.

Assembly District 36: Steve Fox

Assembly District 32 : Rudy Salas

Assembly District 61: Jose Medina

Assembly District 65: Sharon Quirk-Silva

Assembly District 57: Ian Calderon

Assembly District 48: Roger Hernandez

 Assembly District 66: Al Muratsuchi