In a twist as sudden as it was unlikely, Republicans appear poised to make Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., the next Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Though he could face opposition from the House’s conservative caucus, McCarthy’s reputation — and solid positioning in the party ranks — have worked in his favor. As Bloomberg reported, some members have already publicly stated that McCarthy, the second-ranking Republican in the House, was likely to prevail. Their ranks included Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., who has been critical of the sometimes calculating, sometimes conciliatory approach of outgoing Speaker John Boehner, R-Oh., who will leave Congress altogether by next month’s end. “The important question is, will things change? Will they change for the better or we simply replace Mr. Boehner with somebody else who do the same thing?” Mulvaney asked.

Courting conservatives

In an email to colleagues announcing his formal candidacy, McCarthy sought to signal his awareness of the skepticism that has grown up around many House conservatives. “We can’t ignore the differences that exist, but we can and must heal the divisions in our conference with work, time and trust,” he wrote, according to NBC News. “If elected Speaker, I promise you that we will have the courage to lead the fight for our conservative principles and make our case to the American people. But we will also have the wisdom to listen to our constituents and each other so that we always move forward together.”

McCarthy has the benefit of some political innocence. Well before Boehner’s announcement, conservatives had begun to discuss the prospect of voting him out of the Speakership — plans that McCarthy played no role in. That helped endear him to some dissatisfied with Boehner. As one member of the so-called Freedom Caucus told the Hill, “I don’t think he’s plotting. I don’t think he’s trying to aid and abet. I just think he is trying to figure out where everyone is. I volunteered to him that, under the right circumstances, I could vote for him for Speaker.”

A historic shakeup

McCarthy’s run for the spot has triggered a scramble for advantage as top jobs in the GOP chain of command opened up. In addition to a challenge to McCarthy fielded by Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Fla., the race for Majority Leader has “already turned into at least a three-way contest,” Yahoo News reported, “with the No. 3 and No. 4 House Republicans, Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, aggressively pursuing the job, along with the Budget Committee chairman, Tom Price of Georgia.” Although the House’s tea party members have not put forward a candidate of their own, they do not see McCarthy as a choice that will lead to much change in how the party’s legislative strategy moves forward, Yahoo added.

McCarthy, a relatively low-profile member of the party leadership hailing from a state with few other nationally-known Republicans, has been seen as experiencing something of a political windfall. But if he is elected Speaker, he will have his patience and diligence on the Hill to thank. “McCarthy has tended to this flock of House Republicans more than any GOP leader of the past five years,” the Washington Post observed. “He recruited many of the members to run in the 2010 elections that delivered the majority, he has been their adviser and confidant, he works out with them in the House gym and keeps tabs on family members.” Still, if elected, his rise will have been the fastest comparable since the 1800s. “A Speaker McCarthy would represent a sharp shift in the historical trends of the last 125 years. In that time,” the Post noted, “it took an average of almost 23 years in the House to be elevated to speaker, according to a Congressional Research Service report.”

By John Hrabe

National Journal’s The Hotline released its first list of the most competitive U.S. House of Representatives races for the 2012 cycle. These are the 75 seats that National Journal considers “most likely to change hands in November.”

Interesting observations about the rankings:

* California, the state with the largest congressional delegation, had 10 districts make the list, the most of any state.

* New York’s nine races to make the list received a more competitive score. If the states are ranked on a scale of the races, from one to 75, New York races averaged 40.44, compared to 52.2 for the Golden State.

* Three California races are listed in the Top 30: the re-election campaigns of Republican Congressmen Dan Lungren and Brian Bilbray as well as current Republican State Sen. Tony Strickland’s campaign against Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley for the open Ventura County seat in the U.S. House.

The Hotline’s rankings differ slightly from The Nooner’s “12 Most Interesting Congressional Races,” published by Scott Lay at AroundtheCapitol.com. The Nooner’s list included intra-party feuds, whereas National Journal ranked seats most likely to change party hands.

Rankings don’t really mean much to voters. However, they can influence the party congressional committees and PACs, especially as they decide where to allocate national resources. Based on both rankings, expect Bilbray, Strickland and Lungren to be first in line for major national funding.

The races that made Hotline but not the Nooner are: the 3rd race between Democratic incumbent John Garamendi and Republican Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann; the 36th race between Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack and Democrat Raul Ruiz; and the open 47th race between Republican Gary DeLong and Democratic State Senator Alan Lowenthal.

Here’s how National Journal summarized these races.

* CD-3 is a Democratic district held by Democratic Rep. John Garamendi. Almost three-fourths of the district is new to him, but Garamendi’s 52 percent showing in the June all-party primary was a good sign. In previous years with that system, Democrats almost always improved on their primary percentages in November.

* CD-36 is a Republican district held by Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack. Her diverse inland seat has long captured Democratic imaginations, and she only got 52 percent of the vote in 2010. This year, she’ll have to battle presidential-year Hispanic turnout marshaled by Democrat Raul Ruiz, but the seat got slightly more Republican.

* CD-47 is a new Democratic district. Republicans like Gary DeLong, but presidential year turnout in Long Beach makes victory a tricky proposition, though he has a better opportunity than if the seat were filled by an incumbent Democrat.

Other races

The races on the Nooner’s list that didn’t make National Journal’s radar:

* CD21: a Republican leaning Kings County seat, featuring Democrat John Hernandez vs. Republican David Valadao.

And California’s four intra-party feuds. Because of the new Top Two system, the November runoff features two rivals from the same party:

* CD-8  is a Republican seat in San Bernardino County, pitting two Republicans against one another: Paul Cook vs. Gregg Imus.
* CD-35 is a Democratic seat in Ontario, setting two Democrats against one another: Joe Baca vs. Gloria Negrete McLeod.
* CD-31 is a Republican seat in San Bernardino County featuring two Republicans, Bob Dutton vs. Gary Miller.
* CD-30 is a Democratic seat in San Fernando Valley with the Democratic rivals being Howard Berman vs. Brad Sherman.

While the intra-party feuds won’t affect which party controls the House in January, they could affect the partisan makeup of California’s state legislature.  CalWatchDog.com first reported on how the outcome of the 35th congressional race could determine whether Democrats gain two-thirds control of the state Senate. As an even-numbered state senator, Negrete-McLeod would need to resign her senate seat in order to be sworn in as a member of Congress, thereby leaving her senate seat vacant until filled by a special election.

State Sen. Juan Vargas, another even-numbered Democratic congressional candidate, is almost guaranteed to win this November. His victory would create at least one state Senate vacancy.

In the state Legislature, tax increases are subject to a two-thirds vote requirement, a threshold unaffected by vacancies.

In the wake of 9/11, President Bush and Congress micturated their collective pants and imposed the unconstitutional and misnamed “PATROT Act,” really the TRAITOR Act, to destroy our constitutional liberties. Yesterday some Republican congressmen, including newly elected Tea Party types, joined most Democrats in the House in voting against extending the TRAITOR Act another 10 months.

Californian Republicans voting against the TRAITOR Act were:

Dana Rohrabacher

John Campbell

Tom McClintock.

They should be applauded. They defended Americans’ precious freedoms, without which America is just a big East Germany.

And here’s the list of California House Republicans voting for for this Soviet tyranny over our once-free people. Shame on them:

Ed Royce

Gary Miller

Darryl Issa

Mary Bono Mack

Brian Bilbray

Jeff Denham

David Dreier

Elton Gallegly

Wally Herger

Jerry Lewis

Dan Lungern (natch, for the author of the repressive Lungren Law)

Kevin McCarthy

Howard P. “Buck” McKeon

Devin Nunes

Didn’t these Republicans get the message of the Tea Party revolt that Americans want less tyranny, not more? What will it take to wake them up, riots in the streets Cairo-style?

They can redeem themselves by, in the future, voting against renewing the TRAITOR Act and other tyrannies.

Americans need to rally to make sure the TRAITOR Act is deep-sixed and our liberties reclaimed.

Feb. 9, 2011