In a new report issued by Forward Observer, Golden State Democrats were found to drop over $100 million since the 2010 passage of Proposition 14, the initiative that set up the Top Two primary system. The measure created a so-called “jungle” primary system, where the top two candidates square off in the general election, regardless of whether they’re both members of the same party.

In the report, Democrat-on-Democrat spending dwarfed what Republicans shelled out when running against other Republicans. “For every dollar spent or raised by Republicans in these intra-party contests,” Forward Observer concluded, “$3.26 was raised or spent by Democrats.”

The finding struck a significant contrast with provisional conclusions by political analysts that low-information voters didn’t discriminate much among candidates from the same party.

Kevin Drum used that judgment to argue in Mother Jones that “jungle” primaries didn’t much impact California politics:

“In 2012, for example, researchers polled voters using both a traditional ballot and a top-two ballot. There was no difference in the results. One reason is that most voters knew virtually nothing about any of the candidates. Were they moderate? Liberal? Wild-eyed lefties? Meh. Voters weren’t paying enough attention to know.”

In a report drawing similar conclusions from a host of recent studies, the Los Angeles Times determined Californians weren’t any more likely to vote for relatively less ideologically extreme candidates, one of the rationales advanced by “jungle” primary advocates.

Voters “were just as apt to support candidates representing the same partisan poles as they were before the election rules changed — that is, if they even bothered voting,” according to the Times.

“To summarize, our articles find very limited support for the moderating effects associated with the top-two primary,” said Washington University’s Betsy Sinclair, as quoted in the Times, which noted her research summarized six research papers.

A surge of outside money

Further complicating the political narrative for state Democrats, Forward Observer found their outsized intra-party campaign spending came in substantial part from Independent Expenditure committees, or IEs.

Another factor is the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2010 decision, Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission, which took a permissive approach to outside political spending. Since then, liberals and progressives have worried IEs would throw the balance of electoral power to wealthy private interests and, ostensibly, the Republican Party.

As Silicon Valley critic Andrew Gumbel put it, money-in-politics activists worry most about “the under-the-radar stuff that happens away from the media spotlight, often in smaller jurisdictions or in other states. The advent of super-PACs and unlimited independent expenditures makes it possible for billionaires to play a much longer game and to reap far greater successes as long as they are patient.”

In California, the data have provided a different story, with IEs fueling intra-party competition among Democrats most of all. “IEs raised or spent $30.9 million in Democrat-vs-Democrat campaigns and $10.1 million in Republican-vs-Republican campaigns,” Forward Observer calculated.

Notably, the findings underscored earlier research on the impact of IEs in California’s “jungle” primaries. As CalWatchdog.com previously reported:

“Out of 52 same-party races across elections for California’s state Senate, Assembly and House of Representatives, Democrats faced Democrats in 36 contests, while Republicans went head to head in 16 match-ups. Democrats poured $69 million into those three dozen races, while Republican totals reached just over $20 million, according to information drawn from the offices of the state Fair Political Practices Commission and the Secretary of State’s Office, as well as the Federal Election Commission.”

A consistent pattern

Lest analysts think that IEs have distorted other prevailing trends in campaign spending, Forward Observer’s calculations also revealed that money raised or spent by campaign committees themselves also fit the pattern followed by IEs.

Campaign committees, Forward Observer noted, were responsible for “$72.4 million in Democrat-vs-Democrat campaigns and $21.6 million in Republican-vs-Republican campaigns. This was true across both election cycles and across all three chambers – the California Assembly, Senate, and the U.S. House of Representatives.”

Since its passage in 2010, the Top Two system still has run through only two election cycles. But so far, it has fulfilled proponents’ prediction that formerly one-party races, in which the November election was a mere formality, would be replaced by tough competition between two candidates from the same party.

The findings, released by Forward Observer, paint a surprising picture of California politics in the wake of the 2012 election changes. By constitutional amendment, Proposition 14 scrapped the traditional party primary system, as citizens embraced arguments that the new approach would help insurgents and better represent voter choice.

A noteworthy byproduct of the open primary system though appears to be that the opponents who spent the most to defeat Democrats in same-party races were fellow Democrats.

Numbers contradict usual assumptions

According to research by Forward Observer, out of 52 same-party races across elections for California’s state Senate, Assembly and House of Representatives, Democrats faced Democrats in 36 contests, while Republicans went head to head in 16 match-ups. Democrats poured $69 million into those three dozen races, while Republican totals reached just over $20 million, according to information drawn from the offices of the state Fair Political Practices Commission and the Secretary of State’s Office, as well as the Federal Election Commission.

Democrats, researchers concluded, outspent or outraised Republicans in same-party general elections by over three times — $3.42 in Democrat dollars for every $1 Republican.

Moreover, independent expenditures on behalf of Democrats well exceeded those made on behalf of Republicans. Elections where Democrats squared off caused almost $20 million to be raised or spent, while Republican dogfights attracted slightly more than $7 million.

The substantial sums represent outlays made over the course of only two election cycles, 2011-2012 and the current 2013-2014 campaign.

2011-2012 cycle not what might be expected

Forward Observer tallied the cash totals at play in each subset of races leading up to the 2012 elections. Research revealed that, among same-party Assembly races, Democrats raised $18.75 million across ten contests, while Republicans raised $8.4 million across seven. In both cases, those figures included independent expenditures.

Among same-party state Senate races, Democrats raised nearly $4 million between Democrats over two races — again inclusive of independent expenditures. (No Republicans went head to head in a 2012 state Senate race.)

During the six same-party contests between Democrats seeking congressional seats, meanwhile, candidates raised over $26 million. Republican candidates in the same situation raised just $6.3 million.

2013-2014: same pattern shaping up

Because this election cycle is not yet over, fundraising numbers have reached lower totals for the same classes of same-party contests. Among eight same-party Assembly races featuring Democrats, candidates raked in $8.4 million, inclusive of independent expenditures, prior to the middle of the month. Republicans facing one another in four same-party Assembly races, by contrast, have raised just over $1 million in total, including independent expenditures.

Regarding same-party Senate races, Democrats once again outpaced Republicans within the same time frame, with a haul of $5.5 million versus nearly $2 million, independent expenditures included.

Finally, in current Congressional races, Democrats have maintained their sizable edge in total funds raised and independent expenditures. Across five same-party contests for Congress, Democrats generated $8 million in funding prior to Sept. 15 of this year. Across two such races, by the same date, Republicans have so far amassed less than $3 million.