The Senate was less of a question, given that Democrats have a full supermajority in the upper house. As it turned out, the Senate passed the measure – and a companion bill that strengthens air-pollution reporting requirements – with all Democrats in support, as well as one Republican, Tom Berryhill of Modesto, who gained a concession (reduction of a firefighting fee for rural areas) he had sought.

But the Assembly vote wasn’t even close, as seven Republicans – including Republican Leader Chad Mayes of Yucca Valley – voted in favor of the extension. The other six Republicans were Catharine Baker of Walnut Creek, Rocky Chávez of Oceanside, Jordan Cunningham of San Luis Obispo, Heath Flora of Modesto, Devin Mathis of Visalia and Marc Steinorth of Rancho Cucamonga.

Mayes defended his vote, first by expressing how tired he is of partisanship, then noting that he supports cap and trade because “we believe markets are better than Soviet-style regulations.” He also posted on Twitter a large photo of Ronald Reagan with a recent quotation from former Reagan Secretary of State George Schultz: “Passing this bill on a bipartisan basis … is something Ronald Reagan … would be proud.” But despite his appeal to conservative icons, conservative activists and commentators were furious at the vote.

In a column Tuesday, Jon Fleischman, publisher of the Republican website Flashreport, ridiculed Mayes’ contention that the cap-and-trade system is a free-market approach to climate change: “Apparently Mayes believes that when the government creates Soviet-style limits on resources but leaves people with the freedom to exist in a world of artificial scarcity on their own terms, that is not command and control.”

Conservative former Assemblyman Tim Donnelly noted in an email blast that eight GOP legislators “voted for a (63 cents) per gallon gas tax, handing Gov. Jerry Brown another victory and a massive slush fund to spend on things like high-speed rail.” That number comes from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office, which concluded that the cap-and-trade system could add 63 cents to a gallon of gasoline by 2021 if carbon credits sell for a high price.

Under cap and trade, established in 2012 by the California Air Resources Board and authorized by the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, the state caps allowable greenhouse-gas emissions by manufacturers. That cap then is reduced by 3 percent a year. Manufacturers who cannot reduce their carbon emissions immediately bid for “credits” in an auction system. The goal is to force companies to invest in low-carbon technologies, but the costs of the credits and those investments are expected to drive up costs in the meantime.

Some business groups backed the program, viewing it as a less-onerous means to achieve climate-change goals than the heavy-handed regulatory alternative. Some environmental and social-justice groups opposed the plan, which they view as going too easy on corporations. But few doubt that its passage will increase gas, food and electricity prices.

The issue is a hot button now, given that Republicans are targeting Democratic Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, because of his vote in favor of Senate Bill 1, a recently passed law that increases gasoline taxes by 12 cents or more a gallon and which also increased vehicle-license fees to pay for transportation projects. Most Republican legislators objected to a cap-and-trade driven gas-price hike so soon after this tax increase.

Because of the relatively large number of Republican votes for the cap-and-trade extension, the Democratic Assembly speaker “was able to let three of his targeted members, who are occupying seats the GOP would like to pick back up, either not vote at all or vote no,” added Fleischman. He called it a “a big strategic blunder” for the Assembly GOP.

It’s unclear whether the GOP legislators will suffer a political price for their vote. Berryhill is termed out of his Senate seat. “Because of the manner in which the party is currently run and funded, those legislators who voted for the bill will not be punished in any way by the party,” said Tom Del Beccaro, former California Republican Party chairman. “However, as (former Assemblyman) Eric Linder proved with his liberal voting record and loss due to low Republican turnout, Republican voters will be less likely to turn out for Republicans next fall.”

The Republicans who voted for the bill seem undeterred. Some of them joined Gov. Jerry Brown at a celebratory press conference after the bill’s passage. “We didn’t come here to Sacramento to just be Republicans and to hate on Democrats,” said Mayes. “We came here to Sacramento to make people’s lives better.”

Chávez noted that “we’re a very small component of the world on this but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be leaders on something that’s threatening the world.”

It remains to be seen whether the GOP, which was making political hay out of the recent gas-tax vote, can keep up its political momentum now that so many of its members voted for bill that may raise gas prices by far more than 12 cents a gallon.

Steven Greenhut is Western region director for the R Street Institute. Write to him at sgreenhut@rstreet.org.

Women make up more than half of California’s population, but only about one-fourth of the Legislature. 

And in November, that’s unlikely to change too much, according to a CalWatchdog analysis.

While an October surprise, outside factor or just particularly good or bad campaigning could change the course of race that appears to be a sure thing, primary results, incumbency advantages, voting trends and partisan makeup of a district can be useful in making educated guesses.

Currently, out of 120 legislative seats, there are 30 held by women — an additional seat is vacant now, having been held by the late Republican Senator Sharon Runner, who died unexpectedly earlier this month.   

There could be as many as 49 women in the Legislature next year, but it is likely that they’ll hover around the same amount as this year.  

In the Senate, women could have as few as five seats and as many as 13 — realistically, the number will likely be around eight to 10 seats. In the Assembly, women will occupy at least six seats and as many as 36, but that number will likely be somewhere between 15 and 24 seats. 

What we know for sure

Republican Senators Jean Fuller, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates and Democratic Senators Connie Leyva and Holly Mitchell are not up for re-election and will definitely be returning next year, as the Senate is on staggered four-year terms.

In the Assembly, every seat is up for re-election every two years, although five seats will definitely stay occupied by women — either because the incumbent is running unopposed (or facing a write-in challenge) or because the incumbents are facing another woman in the general election. Those five seats are held by: Democrats Cheryl Brown, Cristina Garcia and Autumn Burke and Republicans Catharine Baker and Young Kim. 

Because of either term limits or the seat being vacated by an incumbent running for another position, eight seats held by women will be replaced by men as no women advanced from the primary in these races. Those are the seats currently held by Republican Assemblywomen Beth Gaines, Kristin Olsen, Shannon Grove and Ling Ling Chang and one Democrat, Toni Atkins, as well as two Democratic senators, Carol Liu and Fran Pavley.

Runner’s Senate seat will also be filled by a man.

There is only one definite pickup: An Assembly seat held by termed-out Democrat Luis Alejo.  

Seats where we likely know the outcome

Again, nothing is guaranteed until the final votes are tallied, but these nine seats are safe bets.

While the Assembly seat of Speaker Emeritus Toni Atkins will be filled with a man as mentioned above, the San Diego Democrat is expected to offset that loss by filling a seat being vacated by a man in the Senate. 

Because of the advantages of incumbency, district voting trends and favorable lopsided primary results, these eight female legislators will likely keep their seats: In the Senate, it’s Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson (the current chair of the Women’s Caucus) and Cathleen Galgiani, and in the Assembly, it’s Democrats Jacqui Irwin, Susan Talamantes Eggman, Shirley Weber and Lorena Gonzalez with Republicans Melissa Melendez and Marie Waldron.

One female incumbent in trouble 

The only incumbent woman who is on very shaky ground is Democrat Patty Lopez. Lopez finished second in the primary, down 17.2 percentage points to the man she surprisingly knocked out of office in 2014, fellow Democrat Raul Bocanegra.

Best pickup chances

In the race to replace Sen. Mark Leno, who is termed out, Jane Kim led the primary against fellow Democrat Scott Wiener 45.3 percent to 45.1 percent. It’s obviously a close race, but it is a good chance for a woman to pick up a seat.

In a less competitive race, Democrat Cecilia Aguiar-Curry finished first in the primary against Republican Charlie Schaupp in a heavily Democratic district to replace Assemblyman Bill Dodd, D-Napa, who is running for Senate.

Democrat S. Monique Limón finished the primary with a formidable lead against Edward Fuller, who claims no party preference, 65.9 percent t0 34.1 percent. If elected, Limón would replace Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams. 

In the race to replace termed-out, Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez — who is currently under a three-year restraining order for alleged domestic violence — Blanca Rubio appears likely to win. Rubio, a Democrat, will face Republican Cory Ellenson in a heavily-Democratic district.

Two wildcards 

Two seats where women have decent chances to pickup seats, although the odds are slightly tipped against them, are the Senate races to replace termed-out Republican Bob Huff and incumbent Democrat Jim Beall.

Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang saw an opening in the Huff race and decided to vacate her Assembly seat after only one term. However, she finished the primary with only 44 percent, with two Democrats splitting the 56 percent majority. 

Beall is being challenged by Assemblywoman Nora Campos, a fellow Democrat. Beall narrowly missed a majority in the primary, topping Campos by 22.5 percentage points. Campos is considered the business-friendly candidate, so she’ll have to use that to draw upon Republican support to top Beall.

Toss ups

There are approximately 11 races that look as though they could go either way, with four being vacated by termed-out women. Another four are against male incumbents: Republicans Marc Steinorth, Eric Linder and Travis Allen and Democrat Miguel Santiago.  

Looking for October surprises

And there are 11 other races where women are challenging male incumbents, although these races do not appear as though they’ll be too competitive. 

Testifying at a recent hearing of the Assembly Committee on Privacy and Consumer Protection and Select Committee on Cybersecurity, Howle said 73 of the 77 agencies she reviewed had inadequate or worse safeguards against hacking. Her three biggest concerns: the state’s court system, the Board of Equalization and the California Public Utilities Commission.

Howle’s remarks were countered by a representative of the Brown administration. The state Department of Technology’s chief information security officer, Michele Robinson, said Howle had exaggerated the state’s problems.

But lawmakers didn’t appear to accept Robinson’s defense of the state’s efforts. Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin, D-Thousand Oaks, told Sacramento TV station KCRA after the hearing that she considered Howle’s warnings “very disturbing. …  We have 160 departments that are holding your private information. So Social Security numbers, addresses, medical information — yes, there is a risk for the typical Californian.”

Here is the key summary of Howle’s 2015 audit:

In the past few years, retailers, financial institutions, and government agencies have increasingly fallen victim to cyber attacks. Most recently, in June 2015 the federal Office of Personnel Management announced that a cybersecurity intrusion had potentially exposed the personal information of approximately 20 million current and former federal employees and other individuals. Given the size of California’s economy and the value of its information, the state presents a prime target for similar information security breaches. Its government agencies maintain an extensive range of confidential and sensitive data, including Social Security numbers, health records, and income tax information. If unauthorized parties were to gain access to this information, the costs both to the state and to the individuals involved could be enormous. However, despite the need to safeguard the state’s information systems, our review found that many state entities have weaknesses in their controls over information security. These weaknesses leave some of the state’s sensitive data vulnerable to unauthorized use, disclosure, or disruption.

But Howle didn’t just offer this general conclusion. She also specifically criticized the Brown administration:

Despite the pervasiveness and seriousness of the issues we identified, the technology department has failed to take sufficient action to ensure that reporting entities address these deficiencies. In fact, until our audit, it was not aware that many reporting entities had not complied with its requirements. To determine whether reporting entities have met the security standards, the technology department relies on a self-certification form it developed that the reporting entities must submit each year. However, the poor design of this form may have contributed to many reporting entities incorrectly reporting that they were in full compliance with the security standards when they were not. Specifically, we received complete survey responses from 41 reporting entities that self-certified to the technology department that they were in compliance with all of the security standards in 2014. However, when these 41 reporting entities responded to our detailed survey questions related to specific security standards, 37 indicated that they had not achieved full compliance in 2014. … The technology department was unaware of vulnerabilities in these reporting entities’ information security controls; thus, it did nothing to help remediate those deficiencies.

According to KCRA, a state task force created last year could turn in the first draft of a state government cybersecurity initiative this month.

The Howle audit knocking the state government’s failure to worry enough about hackers was one of six harsh reports she issued in a three-month span last summer, as CalWatchdog reported. Perhaps the most alarming report found that the state did a poor job tracking mentally ill gun owners, despite a previous 2013 audit that warned about the shortcomings of the state’s efforts.

But Richard Roth, a Riverside Democrat, has refused every pay increase since being elected to the state Senate in 2012, making $90,526 per year in base salary.

Most members of the California Legislature make $100,113 per year, with leadership drawing checks for as much as $115,129. In fact, Roth is the only senator currently paid below the going rate, although there are several like-minded members of the Assembly.

Roth spokesperson Shrujal Joseph told CalWatchdog that Roth believes he has an obligation to perform his duties at the pay rate voters agreed to when he was elected.

“If fortunate enough to be re-elected, Senator Roth will accept the pay that is in effect then, whether it be higher or lower,” said Joseph.

Members of the Assembly

Fullerton Republican Young Kim is the lowest paid member of the Assembly, earning $95,291 annually. Like Roth, she’s refused every pay increase since being elected in 2014 — including one that passed right before she was elected but came into effect afterwards.

Six other members of the Assembly refused one pay increase, earning $97,197. Four are Republicans: Catharine Baker of San Ramon, Shannon Grove of Bakersfield, David Hadley of Torrance and Tom Lackey of Palmdale. Two are Democrats: Ken Cooley of Rancho Cordova and Jacqui Irwin of Thousand Oaks.

California Citizens Compensation Commission

Pay for legislators, and constitutional officers like governor and attorney general, is determined annually by the California Citizens Compensation Commission, which will meet again on April 27. The CCCC also determines benefits.

The CCCC is a seven-member panel, appointed by the governor, which is supposed to represent different segments of the community and different areas of expertise, including one member with expertise in compensation (like an economist); one representing the general public (like a homemaker/retiree/person of median income); one representing the nonprofit world; one who is an executive at a large CA employer; one who represents small business; and two labor representatives.

According to Tom Dalzell, the CCCC chairman, it’s unclear if another raise will be in order as he hasn’t “begun to think about it,” but noted the sacrifice many legislators make by leaving lucrative careers for public office. And in general, pay is considered one of the biggest lures of top talent.

Dalzell, who is a business manager for the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1245 and occupies one of the CCCC’s labor seats, said that in determining whether to increase, freeze or reduce pay, the CCCC considers the state budget, the consumer price index and survey data on local elected officials.

Pay Scale History

California has the highest paid state legislators in the country, according to the National Conference of State Legislators. They are also paid well above the state’s median income of around $61,084.

On the whole, base salary for legislators has increased since 2005. To be more precise, legislators have received six increases, three freezes and two reductions since 2005. To be even more precise, base salary went from $99,000 in 2005 to the $100,113 base salary it is today — after salaries had been frozen between 1999 to 2005.

The two reductions were largely orchestrated by the former chairman Charles Murray, a holdover appointee from the Schwarzenegger administration. Murray stepped down almost a year ago to the day.

The six increases: 2005 – 12 percent increase; 2006 – 2 percent increase; 2007 – 2.75 percent increase; 2013 – 5 percent increase; 2014 – 2 percent increase; 2015 – 3 percent increase.

The two decreases: 2009 – 18 percent reduction; 2012 – 5 percent reduction.

And the three freezes were in 2008, 2010 and 2011.

As readers can probably imagine, the decreases were unpopular in Sacramento. In fact, one former legislator fought a cut — the 18 percent reduction in 2009 that slashed salaries from $116,208 to $95,291 — by appealing to both Brown and the California Victim Compensation and Government Claims Board.

Neither appeal was successful.

On Friday, CalWatchdog.com suggested Rob McCoy, the Republican candidate in the contested 44th Assembly District, was being written off by the Assembly Republican Caucus. That was supported by grumblings from GOP sources and campaign finance reports showing the Ventura County pastor at a substantial financial disadvantage to Democrat Jacqui Irwin, a Thousand Oaks councilwoman and two-time mayor.

But political campaigns can change in an instant — or however long it takes to complete a wire transfer.

Shortly after our story posted Friday, McCoy’s campaign to succeed Assemblyman Jeff Gorell, R-Camarillo, received a “Herculean” campaign haul: $224,500 in contributions. The overwhelming majority of those funds, $200,000, came from three Republican central committees in Riverside, San Bernardino and San Luis Obispo counties.

In addition to party funds, McCoy received contributions from Assemblyman Brian Dahle, R-Redding, the New Majority CA and even a $2,000 check from Kevin Sorbo, the star of the 1990s television hit, “Hercules.”

Funding to remain competitive

The largest contribution to McCoy’s campaign on Friday was a $132,000 check from the Republican Central Committee of San Luis Obispo. The party committee has acted as one of the primary financial vehicles for state Republicans in the past few campaign cycles. The committee’s largest contributor is GOP super-donor Charles Munger Jr. Recently the party has accepted checks from Farmers Group, Motor Vehicle Software Corporation, Anthem Blue Cross and the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation.

Other contributions made to McCoy on Friday included $34,000 checks from the San Bernardino County Republican Party and the Riverside County Republican Central Committee.

Since Oct.  1, McCoy’s campaign has reported $293,975 in campaign contributions. That means in the first four days of October, McCoy raised more money than during the entire primary campaign. According to state campaign finance records, McCoy raised $277,762 through the first six months of the year.

McCoy grateful to Olsen-led GOP Caucus

The big money moves are an indication the Assembly Republican Caucus is committed to holding the Ventura County-based seat.

McCoy told CalWatchdog.com on Friday he’s grateful to have the full backing of Asssemblywoman Kristin Olsen, the Modesto Republican slated to take over as leader of the caucus later this year.

“Running for this office as a conservative, Kristin Olsen has been a tremendous help,” McCoy said. He described Olsen as “one of the best” in Sacramento. “I’m thankful for her support. She’s been nothing but helpful.”

That help included a $4,100 max-out contribution over the summer, which has yet to appear on campaign finance disclosure reports. Olsen’s contribution didn’t show up in the state’s campaign finance database because it occurred in the five-week window between the semi-annual campaign report and the 24-hour election cycle reporting period, which began Aug. 6.

Today, Oct. 6, marks the deadline to file campaign reports for contributions received from July 1 to Sept. 30.

Irwin’s $1.3 million campaign bankrolled by Democratic Party, unions

McCoy’s recent cash infusion couldn’t come soon enough and is needed to combat the $1.3 million campaign of his Democratic rival, Irwin.

According to her pre-election report filed late Sunday night, she received $447,990 in campaign contributions from Democratic Party committees since Jan. 1. Much of those funds can be traced back to the state’s powerful labor unions.

As CalWatchdog.com previously reported, the Democratic State Central Committee of CA received a $1.59 million cash infusion on Sept. 19. On just that day, state Democrats cashed $1.15 million from the unions, representing teachers, firefighters, engineers and nurses.

In addition to money transferred through the state party, labor unions have contributed tens of thousands of dollars directly to Irwin’s campaign account. Irwin’s campaign disclosure form reads like a “who’s who” of big union players, including max-out contributions from AFSCME, the California School Employees Association, the California State Council of Laborer’s PAC, the California Teachers Association, Los Angeles County Firefighters Local 1014, SEIU United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434, Service Employees International Union Local 1000, the State Building & Construction Trades Council of California and the United Nurses Association

Such massive support from public employee unions indicates Irwin is likely to fall in lock step with liberal Democrats on pension reform, tax increases and budget cuts.

“She has demonstrated leadership in protecting pensions, investing in law enforcement and concern for working people, while other cities were implementing drastic cuts,” longtime Democratic activist and union leader Hank Lacayo said in his endorsement of Irwin earlier this year. “She has proven that we can trust her to fight for seniors, children and working families as a member of the California Assembly.”

With the election just four weeks away, the McCoy-Irwin battle has become a bellwether on the future of the California Legislature and the GOP desire to break the Democrats’ Assembly supermajority.

“I am absolutely confident that I’ll be elected speaker,” Brulte told the San Jose Mercury News in Dec. 1994, shortly after the GOP claimed a majority in the lower house in the November election. “Whether it takes a day or a week or a month, we’ll just keep coming back until we elect a speaker.”

But Brulte was never to be speaker. Democratic Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, perhaps the only California political strategist more skilled than Brulte, maneuvered to retain the speakership.

“Brulte is like Moses,” consultant Harvey Englander said at the time, according to Dick Rosengarten’s CalPeek. “He leads his people to the promised land, but won’t be allowed to enter.”

Assembly Republican Leader-Elect Kristin Olsen

The stakes are much lower, but Kristin Olsen might be heading down the same path as “Speaker” Brulte.

In July, Assembly Republicans selected Olsen as their next leader — but delayed the transition until after the November election. In the interim, she’s been referring to herself as leader. “Assembly Republican Leader-Elect Kristin Olsen was first elected to the California State Assembly in November 2010 and overwhelmingly re-elected to her second term in November 2012,” the first sentence of the Modesto Republican’s biography reads.

There’s just one problem: The position doesn’t exist.

Non-existent position: Leader-Elect

Scan the Standing Rules of the State Assembly and you won’t find the position of “Assembly Republican Leader-Elect” anywhere. (Minority Floor Leader only rates seven mentions.)

From the Standing Rules of the California State Assembly:

“Organization of Party Caucuses

“13.1. Within two days after the general election held in November of each even-numbered year, the caucus of the political party having the greatest number of Members in the Assembly, and the caucus of the political party having the second greatest number of Members, each shall meet for the purpose of selecting their officers for the next regular session. The rules and procedures of each caucus shall be determined by that caucus, but may not be inconsistent with these rules.”

Only the speaker of the Assembly is presumed to retain office and act as “the senior member elect” for the body’s organizational session.

There’s a good reason “leader-elect” positions don’t exist. A minority leader for the next session can’t be chosen by a previous Legislature. Moreover, the member could lose reelection — however unlikely — or leave office for some other reason before the next Legislature convenes.

Why this matters: Olsen can’t get comfortable

Why does any of this matter? Isn’t Olsen’s coronation in November a mere formality?

First, it’s a reminder that Olsen can’t get too comfortable. Come November, Olsen’s legislative class could be the smallest group within the Assembly GOP Caucus. In 2012, as reported by CalWatchdog.com, Assembly GOP Leader Connie Conway skipped town for a special interest junket to Maui, while Republicans lost a swing seat during the late absentee and provisional ballot phase. Olsen and the GOP Caucus are now desperately working to reclaim the 36th Assembly seat from Assemblyman Steve Fox, D-Palmdale.

Olsen’s unlikely to repeat that mistake. To her credit, the well-liked lawmaker has been aggressively campaigning on behalf of her caucus, much like Brulte did in 1994. This month, she released a Spanish-language radio ad on the state’s water crisis. And she’s refined her pitch to California voters who’ve long given up on the GOP.

“We need to unify our party and all Californians around core principles that will re-energize our state,” Olsen said last month, in a sit-down with CalWatchdog.com Editor-in-Chief Brian Calle.

Assembly District 44: Potential Caucus Disruption

But for all of her hard work, the Assembly GOP Caucus has basically written off an important target in Ventura County.

In July, VC Star reporter Timm Herdt first theorized Olsen’s selection as “leader-elect” was a bad sign for Pastor Rob McCoy, a well-liked community leader running in the 44th Assembly District against moderate Democrat Jacqui Irwin, a Thousand Oaks councilwoman and two-time mayor:

“[Olsen’s selection as leader] could bode ill for 44th Assembly District Rob McCoy, who will no doubt be looking for as much financial assistance as he can get from Sacramento as he competes in that battleground district. But it remains to be seen whether a Conway-led leadership team will give the race a high priority.

“During the primary, Conway took the unusual step for a caucus leader of contributing funds to McCoy’s Republican opponent, businessman Mario de la Piedra. That suggests she may have had some doubts about McCoy’s viability as a general-election candidate. The fact that Conway is still going to call the shots on allocating election resources probably means that McCoy is going to have to persuade the outgoing leader that he can beat Democrat Jacqui Irwin with the help of Republican allies in Sacramento.”

Based on campaign reports, Herdt’s assessment is proving true. Olsen hasn’t given a penny to McCoy, who could use help if Republicans are to retain Assemblyman Jeff Gorell’s seat. According to AroundtheCapitol.com, Irwin has raised $823,887 since the June 30 report, compared to $375,441 for McCoy.

McCoy’s message resonates with McClintock country

In the past year, Democrats have posted sizable registration gains in the Ventura County-based 44th Assembly District. According to the Secretary of State’s 60-Day Voter Registration report, Democrats hold a 5 percentage-point advantage in voter registration.

However, the district’s registration figures gloss over the fiscally conservative tendencies of this area. For years, the district sent to Sacramento anti-tax icon Tom McClintock, now a U.S. congressman.

McCoy has tapped into that fiscally conservative soul of the district by proposing to eliminate “boondoggles like high-speed rail.” While Irwin’s been up on the air with a positive spot, McCoy’s been working the ground with community coffees and precinct walks. He’s also made an issue of new taxes. According to the Los Angeles Register, McCoy “rules out the new taxes Ms. Irwin proposes, declaring that Californians are ‘taxed enough already.'”

In June, the two Republican candidates combined for 55 percent of the vote. The November election is expected to be a similarly low turnout affair. That gives the Calvary Chapel minister a chance and brings us back to “Assembly Republican Leader-Elect” Olsen.

If McCoy pulls an upset in November, in the process he could upset Olsen’s caucus.