About 1,200 California Republicans are held their annual spring convention at the Sacramento Hyatt Regency this weekend and the star Saturday wasn’t featured speakers like Congressmen Darrell Issa of Vista or Devin Nunes of the San Joaquin Valley or high-profile media types like radio host Hugh Hewitt. It was state Sen. Janet Nguyen of Garden Grove, who wasn’t even planning to come to the event until asked at the last moment by state GOP leaders.

The invite was triggered by what happened Thursday. Nguyen, a Vietnamese refugee, took to the state Senate floor to criticize former California politician Tom Hayden, who died recently. It led to her being forcibly removed for being out of order.

Many Vietnamese-Americans see U.S. anti-Vietnam War activists like Hayden and his former wife, Jane Hayden, as sympathetic with the ruthless communist government in North Vietnam that took over South Vietnam in 1975 after a long civil war, triggering a mass exodus that brought hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese refugees to the United States and Orange County in particular.

The symbolism of having Nguyen being forced off the Senate floor resonated with convention goers, who loudly applauded her delivery of the Pledge of Allegiance, the Sacramento Bee reported. She said she was trying to convey the sentiments of her constituents about Hayden, and noted that, “In the country I came from, that’s not allowed.”

“I stand with Janet” jacket lapels were everywhere at the Hyatt, the San Jose Mercury News reported. The paper said the lapels were the idea of Shawn Steel, an Orange County Republican who is the former chairman of the California GOP.

GOP delegates hope for best with Trump

Beyond the cheers for Nguyen, the main takeaway from Saturday’s speeches and events was the evidence of a general readiness to accept and root for President Donald Trump despite his series of controversies – but also quite a bit of ambivalence.

“It’s too early to tell,” Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, R-Oceanside, told the Sacramento Bee said. “I think his Supreme Court pick is outstanding. I think his picks of Kelly, Mattis, Tillerson … and DeVos are very good.

“One thing I’d say I have a question with is his [opposition] to the Trans-Pacific Partnership [trade agreement]. When I listen to Trump talk about it he puts it strictly along the lines of a business negotiation. [It’s] much more than a business negotiation. It was an alliance to recognize the influence of China in the next 50 … years from now.”

Former Assembly member and gubernatorial candidate Tim Donnelly of Twin Peaks told the San Francisco Chronicle that the California GOP should follow Trump’s lead and go unconventional, using social media instead of traditional media.

“The way that we win a state like California is to blow up the narrative and smash the paradigm,” he said. “We have to bring people in — not on being Republican or Democrat but on being proud Californians.”

Sunday may be quieter than Saturday as the state GOP holds its formal general session to hear and vote on committee reports. There are fewer scheduled events than day one and two before the convention concludes.

Interrupting Nguyen’s remarks on the late Tom Hayden, state Sen. Ricardo Lara, D-Bell Gardens, “gave the floor to Sen. Bill Monning, D-Carmel, who said she was out of order. Nguyen continued to speak for several minutes, even as Lara repeatedly asked her to take a seat, before eventually ordering the sergeants to remove her,” the Sacramento Bee reported. 

Lawmakers appeared to have expected a more placid event remembering Hayden, a storied and controversial former state senator who famously objected to the Vietnam War. “Nguyen, who was brought to the United States as a Vietnamese refugee when she was a child, said she wanted to offer ‘a different historical perspective’ on what Hayden and his opposition to the war had meant to her and other refugees,” the Los Angeles Times observed.

Dan Reeves, chief of staff for Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles, explained the dust-up by warning that Lara was merely following parliamentary procedure. “Nguyen was told that she could not make her remarks when she did because Hayden had never impugned her, but that she would be allowed to speak on condition of the file at the end of session,” as the Bee noted.

Sharp comparison

Nevertheless, Republicans did not hesitate to cast the brusque treatment of Nguyen as a more galling and unjustifiable example of the recent action taken on the floor of the U.S. Senate to cut short the remarks of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. “Outraged, the Senate GOP Caucus began circulating video footage and repurposing the popular hashtag #shepersisted — created after U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren was silenced while trying to read a letter from Coretta Scott King, Martin Luther King Jr.’s widow, on the Senate floor,” according to the San Jose Mercury News. 

California Republicans have worked to reverse trends over the past decade showing a growing demographic disadvantage among nonwhite residents, with Nguyen’s constituency a relative bright spot. “Vietnamese voters in Orange County have been consistently Republican, and this is true for foreign-born Vietnamese who are 13-points more Republican,” Capitol Weekly noted. “But among U.S.-born Vietnamese, this flips to a 20-point Democratic advantage. The data also shows that racially polarized voting among these populations is strongest among first-generation voters, and dissipates as voters get into third and fourth generations where the factors of ethnicity and national heritage are more diluted.”

A lingering story

The fallout from the ordeal was set to continue into the remainder of the month. The California Senate Republican Caucus has demanded an investigation, with de León adopting a cautiously defensive position. “He said the senator violated parliamentary procedure and that she ignored requests by the presiding officer to follow the rules,” the Mercury News noted, promising “he would speak with Nguyen and Fuller to find out what went wrong” in the incident.

Several twists and turns in the sequence of events may have led to a swift escalation. “Nguyen stood and began her speech in Vietnamese before switching to English,” the Associated Press detailed. “Majority Leader Bill Monning of Carmel she was speaking out of order. Her microphone was shut off, but she continued speaking.” 

Nguyen recently made Sacramento news for invoking her life experience in a different way, abstaining from a vote on the state Senate’s recent resolution condemning the White House’s travel ban applicable to individuals from several predominantly Muslim countries. Nguyen, the Mercury News reported, “said she sympathized with refugees. ‘But in the end,’ she said, ‘the debate is about national security.'” 

Women make up more than half of California’s population, but only about one-fourth of the Legislature. 

And in November, that’s unlikely to change too much, according to a CalWatchdog analysis.

While an October surprise, outside factor or just particularly good or bad campaigning could change the course of race that appears to be a sure thing, primary results, incumbency advantages, voting trends and partisan makeup of a district can be useful in making educated guesses.

Currently, out of 120 legislative seats, there are 30 held by women — an additional seat is vacant now, having been held by the late Republican Senator Sharon Runner, who died unexpectedly earlier this month.   

There could be as many as 49 women in the Legislature next year, but it is likely that they’ll hover around the same amount as this year.  

In the Senate, women could have as few as five seats and as many as 13 — realistically, the number will likely be around eight to 10 seats. In the Assembly, women will occupy at least six seats and as many as 36, but that number will likely be somewhere between 15 and 24 seats. 

What we know for sure

Republican Senators Jean Fuller, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates and Democratic Senators Connie Leyva and Holly Mitchell are not up for re-election and will definitely be returning next year, as the Senate is on staggered four-year terms.

In the Assembly, every seat is up for re-election every two years, although five seats will definitely stay occupied by women — either because the incumbent is running unopposed (or facing a write-in challenge) or because the incumbents are facing another woman in the general election. Those five seats are held by: Democrats Cheryl Brown, Cristina Garcia and Autumn Burke and Republicans Catharine Baker and Young Kim. 

Because of either term limits or the seat being vacated by an incumbent running for another position, eight seats held by women will be replaced by men as no women advanced from the primary in these races. Those are the seats currently held by Republican Assemblywomen Beth Gaines, Kristin Olsen, Shannon Grove and Ling Ling Chang and one Democrat, Toni Atkins, as well as two Democratic senators, Carol Liu and Fran Pavley.

Runner’s Senate seat will also be filled by a man.

There is only one definite pickup: An Assembly seat held by termed-out Democrat Luis Alejo.  

Seats where we likely know the outcome

Again, nothing is guaranteed until the final votes are tallied, but these nine seats are safe bets.

While the Assembly seat of Speaker Emeritus Toni Atkins will be filled with a man as mentioned above, the San Diego Democrat is expected to offset that loss by filling a seat being vacated by a man in the Senate. 

Because of the advantages of incumbency, district voting trends and favorable lopsided primary results, these eight female legislators will likely keep their seats: In the Senate, it’s Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson (the current chair of the Women’s Caucus) and Cathleen Galgiani, and in the Assembly, it’s Democrats Jacqui Irwin, Susan Talamantes Eggman, Shirley Weber and Lorena Gonzalez with Republicans Melissa Melendez and Marie Waldron.

One female incumbent in trouble 

The only incumbent woman who is on very shaky ground is Democrat Patty Lopez. Lopez finished second in the primary, down 17.2 percentage points to the man she surprisingly knocked out of office in 2014, fellow Democrat Raul Bocanegra.

Best pickup chances

In the race to replace Sen. Mark Leno, who is termed out, Jane Kim led the primary against fellow Democrat Scott Wiener 45.3 percent to 45.1 percent. It’s obviously a close race, but it is a good chance for a woman to pick up a seat.

In a less competitive race, Democrat Cecilia Aguiar-Curry finished first in the primary against Republican Charlie Schaupp in a heavily Democratic district to replace Assemblyman Bill Dodd, D-Napa, who is running for Senate.

Democrat S. Monique Limón finished the primary with a formidable lead against Edward Fuller, who claims no party preference, 65.9 percent t0 34.1 percent. If elected, Limón would replace Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams. 

In the race to replace termed-out, Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez — who is currently under a three-year restraining order for alleged domestic violence — Blanca Rubio appears likely to win. Rubio, a Democrat, will face Republican Cory Ellenson in a heavily-Democratic district.

Two wildcards 

Two seats where women have decent chances to pickup seats, although the odds are slightly tipped against them, are the Senate races to replace termed-out Republican Bob Huff and incumbent Democrat Jim Beall.

Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang saw an opening in the Huff race and decided to vacate her Assembly seat after only one term. However, she finished the primary with only 44 percent, with two Democrats splitting the 56 percent majority. 

Beall is being challenged by Assemblywoman Nora Campos, a fellow Democrat. Beall narrowly missed a majority in the primary, topping Campos by 22.5 percentage points. Campos is considered the business-friendly candidate, so she’ll have to use that to draw upon Republican support to top Beall.

Toss ups

There are approximately 11 races that look as though they could go either way, with four being vacated by termed-out women. Another four are against male incumbents: Republicans Marc Steinorth, Eric Linder and Travis Allen and Democrat Miguel Santiago.  

Looking for October surprises

And there are 11 other races where women are challenging male incumbents, although these races do not appear as though they’ll be too competitive. 

Photo Credit: HUD.gov

Rent control is on the march in California, addressing years of leases that have increased to as much as 43 percent over the national average for a one-bedroom apartment.

In the last year, rent has increased 6.5 percent in the state.

Is Rent Control the Answer?

The answer for local politicians is rent control; 16 cities now have such policies, but it had been 30 years since the last time any municipality enacted such a thing until Richmond did so August 6.

The state is one of the most expensive for both buying and renting, and more cities across the U.S., mostly on the coasts, are dealing with rent increases that are taking up to a third of some tenants’ annual salary.

In Richmond, rents have jumped an estimated 30 percent since 2011. To cover the administrative costs of the new rent control program, which begins Sept. 4, a fee will be imposed on all owners of rental properties.

But a review of reports and testimony surrounding a bill pending in the statehouse indicates that fees levied on developers is how we got to the ever-rising rents in the first place.

“Pay to Play”

The first report, which now reads as a road map to rent hike disaster, was released in August 2001 by the state Department of Housing and Community Development. Titled “Pay to play,” the report dug into the residential development fees that are now being noted as the primary cause of rent increases:

“California’s high residential development fees significantly contribute to its high housing costs and prices,” the report stated. “Among our sample of California jurisdictions, fees account for an average of 10 percent of the median price of new single-family homes. Fees account for a lower share of housing prices in more expensive housing markets and a higher share in less expensive markets.”

The report also included a simulation, calculating what would happen if development fees were cut. Using Santa Clara County as an example, a 50 percent reduction in development fees at a 45-unit apartment building would take down monthly rent by 4 percentage points, still allowing for a 10 percent return.

It’s hard for a lot of the public to be sympathetic to developers; over the years they’ve been portrayed as desecrators of open woodlands and the ruin of tradition. At the same time, without them, housing would be a mess. And stopping them, even worse.

Plethora of Fees

There are a dozen fees that can be leveled on developers. They include environmental documentation fees, school mitigation fees and something called a plan check fee, which involves a review of a planned building or development. In Long Beach, that can cost up to “85 percent of Building Permit fee per plan check, but not less than $112.58,” according to city documents. In Roseville, a plan check can involve as many as seven city departments for a multi-family project. If time is money, and it is for most developers, that can be a costly delay.

State Sen. Janet Nguyen, R- Garden Grove, introduced Senate Bill 341 in February that would, in part, address the state’s outsized development fees by requiring a periodic assessment of the various fees being charged by municipalities on developers.

Nguyen said in a May hearing of the Senate Standing Committee on Appropriations that the average local development fee in the state is over $22,000 as opposed to $6,000 in other states. And when adjusted for cost of living, California’s property tax rate is the highest in the U.S.

She noted that the last evaluation of the various development fees was done in 1998, “and it is time to update these numbers to find out what effect these fees have on current housing prices.”

But of course there’s a cost to the proposed periodic assessments; a Department of Finance representative said it would be around $300,000 each time.

If passed, Nguyen’s legislation would make California one of the rare states with a regular assessment of developer fees, said Clancy Mullen, vice president of Austin, Texas-based Duncan Associates, which advises municipalities on impact fees.

“Unless there is a push in a legislature to clamp down, these are not looked at with any regularity in states,” said Mullen, whose group compiled a 2012 survey on developer fees in the U.S. “States may pass an enabling act then tweak it from time to time, but there is no regular review. This would be a first.”

Republican Senators Andy Vidak and Anthony Cannella easily won reelection in their Central Valley districts, while Orange County Supervisor Janet Nugyen clobbered former Asm. Jose Solorio by twenty points in a highly-contested open seat. The GOP victories come just eight months after corruption scandals cost California Democrats their super-majority in the State Senate and give Senate Republicans some leverage in votes on taxes and procedural motions in the upper house.

Two years ago, the Senate Democratic Caucus under Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg won every contested race. This time around, Senate Democrats under new leader Kevin de Leon struggled in districts that are considered safe Democratic seats.

In the 12th Senate District, Cannella, a first-term Republican, cruised to reelection against Democrat Shawn Bagley, a produce-broker and businessman from Salinas. With 97 percent of precincts reporting, the Republican lawmaker nearly doubled up on his opponent, capturing 62 percent to Bagley’s 38 percent of the vote.

Although Democrats hold a 13-point advantage in voter registration, Cannella built a sizable war chest, which staved off serious challengers. A moderate Republican, Cannella won over independent voters and moderate Democrats by co-sponsoring legislation to allow undocumented immigrants to apply for driver’s licenses. He also pushed national Republicans to adopt comprehensive immigration reform and voted in favor of the Dream Act, a controversial bill to allow undocumented immigrants to obtain conditional permanent residency and in-state tuition benefits.

State Senate 14: Vidak’s impressive win

In the 14th Senate District, early returns showed a potential upset of Vidak, who won the seat in a 2013 special election. But, with 90 percent of precincts reporting, Vidak had established a comfortable 11-point lead over Fresno School Board Trustee Luis Chavez.

Republicans across the state benefited from a combination of low voter turnout and Gov. Jerry Brown’s decision to ignore a serious statewide campaign. However, they have reason to celebrate Vidak’s win as progress in reaching moderate Democrats and independent voters.

On paper, Democrats should win the 14th State Senate race every time. Democrats have 20 point advantage in voter registration in the district that is also half Latino. According to absentee ballot data from Political Data, Inc., this year’s absentee turnout was higher than 2010 and almost as high as 2012.

Vidak, the legislature’s leading critic of high-speed rail, has questioned pay-to-play politics in the contracting process and called for the public to re-vote on the controversial project. He also stood firm in calling for the Senate to expel several members accused of corruption and bribery.

State Senate 34: Nguyen’s Win

In the 34th Senate District, Nguyen, a first generation Vietnamese-American immigrant, withstood a barrage of negative attacks to defeat former Assemblyman Jose Solorio by twenty points. With 99.1 percent of precincts reporting, as of 12:55 a.m., Nguyen had 70,438 votes, compared to 46,867 for Solorio, a trustee on the Rancho Santiago Community College District Board.

Nguyen, the youngest supervisor in Orange County’s history, is headed to Sacramento thanks to a strong turnout by Vietnamese-American voters. Asian turnout among absentee voters, according to data made available by Political Data, Inc., was up significantly in the district, where 80 percent of the district’s Asian voters are Vietnamese. The race was considered to be one of the most competitive legislative races in the state. Surprisingly, Nguyen added to her vote total from the June 3rd primary, when she captured 52 percent of the vote in a three-way race.

Republicans also performed well in the 32nd Senate District, where Downey Councilman Mario Guerra kept Democrat Tony Mendoza on the ropes in a safe Democratic seat. With 97.5% of precincts reporting as of 2:02 a.m., Mendoza had 51.6 percent of the vote, a 3 percent advantage over Guerra.

Senate intra-party feuds

Under California’s Top 2 elections system, the highest vote-getters in the June primary advance to the November election. In two Democratic intra-party feuds, the moderate candidates prevailed in closely-contested races. In the 6th Senate District, Assemblyman Richard Pan defeated fellow Democratic lawmaker Roger Dickinson by roughly six points.

In the 26th Senate District, liberal activist Sandra Fluke was blown out by fellow Democrat Ben Allen. A member of the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School Board, Allen held a nearly 2-1 lead over the women’s rights activist who became a darling of the left after her national spat with conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh. With 84 percent of precincts reporting as of 2:02 a.m., Allen had 61 percent to Fluke’s 38.8 percent. The Torrance-based seat was previously held by moderate Democrat Ted Lieu, who was winning his campaign to replace retiring Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Beverly Hills.

The only Senate contest between two Republicans remained too close to call. With 63 percent of precincts reporting, Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone held a six point lead over former Republican Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia in the 28th Senate District.

Even with the historically low voter turnout, Democrats are expected to once again sweep all the major statewide races. The handful of propositions seem to be reruns of old fights — doctors vs. trial lawyers, insurance companies vs. Consumer Watchdog, tribe vs. tribe. In the state Legislature, the only question is whether Democrats claim a super-majority in both houses, and thus, have the power to raise taxes.

Here at CalWatchdog.com, we’ll be live-blogging this evening’s election results. With little mystery surrounding most of the results, what are some things we’ll be looking for?

1. The chessboard: How effective were party bigwigs with their targeting decisions?

It’s expensive to run for the California State Legislature, where Senate districts are larger than congressional districts. As we previously reported, the 65th Assembly District race between GOP Young Kim and Democrat Asm. Sharon Quirk-Silva is comparable with a governor’s race in New Hampshire. That means in order to compete, candidates need to raise large sums of money from Sacramento. Consequently, most of the targeting decisions for state legislative races are made by a small group of power-brokers in the political parties and legislative leadership in Sacramento.

But party leaders don’t always get the targets right. Good candidates on paper can turn out to be lazy, and more than a few oddballs put up a good fight. In addition to the supermajority threshold, we’ll be watching how well both parties allocated resources.

A few months ago, it looked like Republicans were walking away from Assemblyman Jeff Gorell’s Assembly seat. Sacramento rallied behind another GOP candidate in the primary and didn’t immediately embrace pastor Rob McCoy. Then, McCoy got some much-needed financial help from incoming Assembly Republican leader Kristin Olsen. Moderate Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who received more money, is favored to pick up this seat. She’s slightly behind in absentees (down 1 point), but the coastal independent voters should swing her way. McCoy’s ground operation has been strong, but he must account for a 3-point Democratic bump and 5-point GOP drop on Election Day. We’ll know whether Assembly Republicans were wise to invest limited resources in McCoy.

Incoming Assembly GOP leader Kristin Olsen

Conversely, Republicans largely ignored Republican Jack Mobley’s challenge to Assemblyman Adam Gray. A moderate Central Valley Democrat, Gray endeared himself to the state’s business community by occasionally delivering pro-business votes on hot-button issues. But he’s turning out to be a weak incumbent — so weak that Democrats have dropped more than $310,000 in Gray’s depleted campaign coffers.

If Assembly Republicans had targeted Gray earlier, he’d be headed for defeat. But the pro-business Democrat remained low on the priority pick-up list. Gray is the quintessential good-ol-boy like GOP state Sen. Anthony Canella. They even show up on mail together. So, what would be bad news for any other Democrat might not matter for Gray. In the last two weeks, Gray has received roughly a half-million dollars in campaign contributions in the last two weeks of the campaign, including late contributions from big business and big labor.

Gray only holds a margin advantage in absentee ballots. If this race is close, Republicans missed a big opportunity in Merced.

2. Good Ol’ Boys: Can the Asian American GOP women win in Orange County?

In conservative Orange County, a quartet of Asian American Republican women is running for office. “If the quartet runs the table,” writes former CA GOP Chairman and RNC Committeeman Shawn Steel, “it will be the most dramatic demographic change in the party’s elected leadership, and in the process, shatter conventional myths about the Grand Old Party.”

Steel’s wife, Michelle Steel, is running for supervisor in Orange County, technically a non-partisan position. The immigrant from South Korea currently is a member of the state Board of Equalization. She is running against Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, also a Republican.

In the 34th Senate district, OC Supervisor Janet Nguyen is expected to have a very good night against former Assemblyman Jose Solorio. Asian turnout is up, and 80 percent of the district’s Asian voters are Vietnamese. All of that is very good news for Nguyen, a first generation Vietnamese-American immigrant.

Young Kim, GOP candidate in 65th Assembly District

In the 65th Assembly race, Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva is behind in absentees, with numbers lower than 2012. Even a traditional 5-point bump from Election Day voters shouldn’t be enough to close the gap with Republican Young Kim, a first-generation Korean-American immigrant. Another good sign for Kim: Hidden in the absentee numbers are about 900 Democratic Koreans and 850 Independent Koreans that already voted by mail. Those 1,700 votes could be another 2-point boost for Kim, who is already likely ahead 9 points in absentees.

And in the 55th Assembly District race, Republican Ling-Ling Chang, a Taiwanese-American, is heavily favored in this strongly GOP district against Democrat Gregg D. Fritchle.

3. The GOP Blueprint: Does State Sen. Andy Vidak show how to win in a Democratic district?

On paper, Democrats should win the 14th State Senate race every time. Republican Andy Vidak scored an upset win in a 2013 special election. This year, turnout is actually higher than 2010 and almost as high as 2012, based on the absentee returns. Can Vidak really hold off a 16-point Democratic advantage in turnout and a nearly 50 percent Latino electorate? If he does, that’s a starting point for Republican success in California.

Similarly, Republicans have put substantial resources behind Downey Councilman Mario Guerra in a safe Democratic seat. Democrat Tony Mendoza should have an early lead, by roughly 8 points in absentees. If it’s close, Republicans can build here for the future.

4. CTA Brand: Is the teachers union banged in the state superintendent of public instruction and 15th Assembly races?

Democrat Tim Sbranti should be just fine tonight. He’s a Bay Area Democrat running in a solidly Democratic district. Historically, Republicans have struggled to win Bay Area races, even when the candidate is a moderate who matches the district. If Republican Catharine Baker keeps it close, it’s a good indication that the California Teachers Association’s image is suffering badly. The union has invested heavily in Sbranti, and become an issue in the campaign.

Same story in the race for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Incumbent Tom Torlakson, a strong support of the union, has benefited from a big IE from the union.

5. Top Down-Ticket Democrat: Which Democratic constitutional officer receives the highest vote total?

There’s talk that California’s aging U.S. Senators won’t seek reelection next time around. Gov. Jerry Brown won’t be able to run for a fifth term, leaving the state’s top positions open for the next generation of Democrats.

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris seem to get all the buzz. But we’d be willing to bet Controller John Chiang, who is seeking the job of state treasurer, pulls in the most votes of any statewide candidate after Brown. Chiang’s earned a reputation as an effective fiscal watchdog. In 1998, then-Controller Gray Davis polled in last place in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Al Checchi and Rep. Jane Harmon were the early favorites. But Davis won the primary, then the general election.

Chiang could be the darkhorse Democrat that becomes the next governor or U.S. senator.

In 2012, the Senate Democratic Caucus ran the tables, winning every contested race. With Fran Pavley, Richard Roth and Cathleen Galgiani added to his caucus, Senate President President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, had a veto-proof, two-thirds majority.

They could do what they wanted, even pass tax increases, with any Republican objections  ignored.

But before that supermajority could be put to use, Senate Republicans were given a victory they hadn’t earned at the ballot box. In February 2013, Senator Michael Rubio, D-Bakersfield, abruptly resigned to take a job with Chevron. In the ensuing special election, Republican Andy Vidak of Hanford upset Leticia Perez.

Rubio resignation began Democrats’ downward spiral

Rubio’s resignation was the beginning of a downward spiral for Senate Democrats. In quick succession earlier this year, three members of the Senate Democratic Caucus, Ron Calderon of Montebello, Rod Wright of Inglewood  and Leland Yee of San Francisco, faced high-profile scandals that brought about their suspensions and ended Senate Democrats’ super-majority in the 2013-14 session.

This November, Democrats have no room for error, as favorable demographics and incumbent advantages have Senate Republicans poised to reclaim one-third control of the State Senate. In order to reach their expected 14-seat minority, Senate Republicans need to defend two Central Valley incumbents and win an open seat in Orange County, which is rated a toss-up by most political analysts.

Cannella appeals to immigrants

Despite declining statewide voter registration, Republicans have done well in recent elections appealing to moderate Democrats and decline-to-state voters in the conservative Central Valley. Four years ago, Senator Anthony Cannella, R-Ceres, beat then-Assemblywoman Anna Caballero by three points in an open seat being vacated by Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Turlock.

This year, Cannella faces a much weaker opponent in Democrat Shawn Bagley, a produce-broker and businessman from Salinas. Although Democrats hold a 14-point advantage in voter registration, Cannella will likely use his more than $900,000 warchest to tell voters about his moderate record in Sacramento.

Cannella co-sponsored legislation to allow undocumented immigrants to apply for driver’s licenses. He’s pushed Congress to adopt comprehensive immigration reform and voted in favor of the Dream Act, to allow undocumented immigrants to obtain conditional permanent residency and in-state tuition benefits.

Vidak: State’s leading high-speed rail critic

While Cannella has worked to broaden the GOP’s base, Vidak has appealed to moderate Democrats and independents on the issue of high-speed rail. The Legislature’s leading high-speed rail critic, Vidak has questioned pay-to-play politics in the contracting process and called for a re-vote of the public, which in 2008 green-lighted the project by passing $9.9 billion in bonds in Proposition 1A.

This November, Vidak must again overcome a 17 percentage point Democratic registration advantage, as he faces Fresno School Board Trustee Luis Chavez.  If the primary is any indication, Vidak is well-positioned to defeat Chavez, who managed just 38 percent of the vote in the heavily Democratic district to Vidak’s 62 percent.

Nguyen: GOP’s opportunity to gain seat

With the effects of redistricting finally taking effect for even numbered State Senate seats, Republicans are guaranteed to pick up one seat, the 28th Senate district, in the Coachella Valley. The race remains too close to call, but the top three candidates, Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone, former Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia and Indio Councilman Glenn Miller, are all Republicans.

The best pick-up opportunity for Senate Republicans lies in Orange County, where County Supervisor Janet Nguyen takes on former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, now a trustee on the Rancho Santiago Community College District Board. On Tuesday, despite having a second Republican candidate in the race, Nguyen earned 51.8 percent of the vote in the 34th Senate District. The district has an even split between Asian and Latino voters.

GOP long-shots, but on the table

Two more seats are long-shots for Republicans, but will likely remain on the table in November. In Alameda and Santa Clara county, GOP candidate Peter Kuo will face Democratic Assemblyman Bob Wieckowski, who escaped a bitter primary with former Assemblywoman and convicted shoplifter Mary Hayashi. Also impressing political analysts, former Downey Mayor Mario Guerra pulled in 44 percent of the vote in a heavily Democratic district.

“Comparing June vote totals to November is like comparing preseason to the playoffs,” Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, told the Los Angeles Times. “It’s a completely different election with a completely different turnout universe.”

In the 32nd Senate District, Guerra needs to overcome a nearly 2-to-1 voter registration disadvantage. Even without a long-shot victory in the Whittier-based district, Senate Democrats will lose a seat in November, when Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, is expected to win a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. That would produce a new race next year for a replacement.

District 12

Candidate		Votes	Percent
	Luis Chavez (Party Preference: DEM)	17,296	37.6%
*	Andy Vidak (Party Preference: REP)	28,718	62.4%

District 28

100.0% ( 422 of 422 ) precincts partially reporting as of June 6, 2014, 10:29 a.m.

Candidate		Votes	Percent
	Philip Drucker (Party Preference: DEM)	16,177	18.8%
	Anna Nevenic (Party Preference: DEM)	13,084	15.2%
	William “Bill” Carns (Party Preference: REP)	4,379	5.1%
	Bonnie Garcia (Party Preference: REP)	16,894	19.6%
	Glenn A. Miller (Party Preference: REP)	16,792	19.5%
	Jeff Stone (Party Preference: REP)	18,737	21.8%

District 34

100.0% ( 482 of 482 ) precincts partially reporting as of June 5, 2014, 6:20 p.m.

Candidate		Votes	Percent
	Jose Solorio (Party Preference: DEM)	23,851	33.7%
	Janet Nguyen (Party Preference: REP)	36,577	51.8%
	Long Pham (Party Preference: REP)	10,244	14.5%

District 32

100.0% ( 494 of 494 ) precincts partially reporting as of June 5, 2014, 6:20 p.m. 

Candidate		Votes	Percent
	Carlos R. Arvizu (Party Preference: DEM)	1,046	2.0%
	Sally Morales Havice (Party Preference: DEM)	5,917	11.3%
	Tony Mendoza (Party Preference: DEM)	16,706	31.9%
	Irella Perez (Party Preference: DEM)	5,545	10.6%
	Mario A. Guerra (Party Preference: REP)	23,135	44.2%

 

By John Hrabe

California’s Department of Parks and Recreation has been holding onto $54 million in surplus funds for the past decade. The agency didn’t bother to tell anyone at the state Department of Finance about their secret stash.

Oops.

Parks agency director, Ruth Coleman, resigned on Friday, but not before firing her second-in-command, Acting Chief Deputy Director Michael Harris. In May, former deputy parks director Manuel Lopez resigned after he approved $271,000 in secret vacation buybacks.

The scandal looks bad because it is bad. My CalWatchDog.com colleague Katy Grimes has uncovered that employees were “keying in the post-it notes amounts, which were used for the buyout requests to avoid a paper trail.” No government officials should hide information from auditors or mislead the public about anything– let alone something as important as its finances.

But, let’s not forget one important fact: the agency saved the money. Coleman confirms that “no taxpayer money is missing and that no funds were embezzled.” If that turns out to be true, there are far greater scandals occurring every day with government agencies that wastefully spend our money. And because those stories have become so commonplace, the public ignores them.

Steinberg: Ready to Spend the Surplus

State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, promised that the Legislature was ready to spend the money. “The Senate will also examine how to ensure that these found dollars can be used for the highest benefit for California’s taxpayers,” he said in a press release.

On the very same day, Steinberg was defending the legislature’s approval of $4.6 million in pay raises for its employees. “Steinberg’s chief assistant, Kathryn Dresslar, was among those who received pay raises, a 10 percent increase to $183,480 a year,” the Associated Press reported; 110 of the employees that received raises already make more than $100,000 per year. I reiterate: On the same day that Steinberg was criticizing the state parks department for saving $54 million in taxpayer funds, he was explaining why he gave out pay raises to state employees.

Does that make sense to anyone? The director who saved taxpayer money loses her job, and the politicians that approved extravagant pay raises for their staff now get to spend the windfall.

Oh, the lying and dishonesty, you say. The legislature’s track record of openness and public disclosure is no better than the parks department. Last year, the Legislature fought Assemblymember Anthony Portantino, D-La Cañada Flintridge, in his quest for full disclosure of the legislature’s spending records. At least, state parks lied about saving money.

Only in California is it scandalous when a government agency doesn’t spend taxpayer money. Think about that: It’d have been better politically if the agency had frivolously spent the money rather than secretly stockpile it. If the parks department had spent the money on executive pay raises or renovations of its mansions, there’d be no scandal. Coleman wouldn’t have resigned.

Motivation to Hide

So, why did the agency hide the money? The Mercury News reported, “One parks department official who requested anonymity said it appears there was an error in accounting formulas years ago, and that as the money accumulated in the funds, staff members did not want to admit the mistake, possibly for fear that the finance department would take the money away.”

Here’s the real scandal: every other state agency that spent surplus funds to prevent the money from returning to the general fund. Does anyone really believe that the state parks department was the only agency to have a surplus in the past decade?

Any California agency with surplus funds probably rushed to spend its budget before the end of the year.  That’s what happened in Missouri. Earlier this year, an audit revealed, “Some Missouri agencies rushed to spend money on items not immediately needed as their annual budgets drew to a close.”

Any state agency that wasn’t already engaging in this behavior will do so in the future. The parks department scandal, and its ensuing investigations, will encourage state agencies to squander funds at the end of the year.

State Parks Never Closed

Moreover, there were no harms to hiding the money. The department threatened budget cuts would close state parks, but that never panned out. According the Los Angeles Times, “Closures were averted because donors, nonprofits and other government agencies stepped forward with additional funding.” In other words, the people that enjoy state parks paid for the state parks. Park patrons, environmentalists and nonprofit groups should pay more for a government service from which they enjoy the greatest benefits.

In dire economic times, California’s poor, working class and unemployed can’t afford to take a weekend camping trip to a state park. Gov. Jerry Brown expects this group to pay more taxes to keep the state parks open. Proposition 30 raises the state sales tax by a quarter percent, a regressive tax on the poor and working class.

By all means, investigate state parks, and keep reading Katy Grimes’ great work on the topic. But maybe, just maybe, politicians should be more outraged by the government agencies and departments that are wasting money every day, not the one agency that secretly hid their surplus from the free-spending state Legislature.

Scandals Hidden in Plain Sight

Every day, stories are hidden in plain sight. Take press coverage from this Saturday, the day that the state parks scandal broke, when there were no fewer than a dozen links to the story. On the same day, there were plenty of stories that demonstrate government waste and fiscal mismanagement by agencies that mislead the public.

Let’s start with California’s high-speed rail boondoggle. The California High-Speed Rail Authority has found no shortage of ways to waste taxpayer money. The agency initially spent $9 million on an outreach contract with Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide to use tax dollars to influence public opinion of the project. The agency rejected French rail company SNCF proposal to “identify a profitable route, hold down building costs, develop realistic ridership forecasts and attract private investors.”

Time and time again, the agency has lied to the public about the project’s cost, ridership estimates and economic benefits. Last year, the San Jose Mercury News debunked the agency’s bogus claim that the project would create a million jobs. Of course, that’s wasteful spending and misinformation that even high-speed rail proponents can’t dispute. Most Californians don’t understand why the state is spending $8 billion on “a train to nowhere” as it cuts school funding.

Next up, the ongoing municipal bankruptcy scandals. CalWatchDog.com contributor Steven Greenhut’s Saturday column focused on the $220 million of debt that has been racked up by the City of San Bernardino. City attorney James Penman initially claimed that city officials were provided false and misleading budget documents.

Wasteful Spending Across the State

Sacramento Valley: In Saturday’s edition of the Sacramento Bee, there’s a story about the renovation of the Hotel Berry. Buried in the story, “The Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency contributed $10.1 million to the Hotel Berry renovation.” That’s money straight from government coffers that goes into the pockets of wealthy developers. Crony capitalism at its worst. Sacramento’s redevelopment experts are the same group that approved a $6 million subsidy of the infamous “mermaid bar,” while illegitimately seizing the property of Moe Mohanna.

Earlier this year, prior to their demise, redevelopment agencies rushed to approve billions of dollars in wasteful spending in order to use up the money before the state could get its hand on it. The Orange County Register’s Teri Sforza reported that Orange County alone spent $1.85 billion in government funds.

Bay Area: Zusha Elinson of the Bay Citizen has a piece in Saturday’s San Francisco Chronicle about thousands of dollars in bonuses fraudulently awarded to San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency officials. “Muni paid thousands of dollars in bonuses to top executives for meeting or exceeding on-time performance goals, even as the agency inflated its on-time rates by as much as 18 percent,” she writes.

There are dozens of stories like this one each month, and hundreds more that go unreported. A few weeks ago, the San Mateo County violated the county’s pay restrictions in order to hand out a pay raise. “The San Mateo County Board of Supervisors unanimously authorized the new head of the county’s employee retirement system to make 5 percent more than the maximum annual pay of $183,600 for his position,” the Mercury News reported. This is a routine practice by local government agencies, especially cities and schools districts.

Orange County: Head down to Orange County, where former CalOptima Chairman Ed Kacic is accused of steering government contracts worth “millions of dollars to a private foundation that he heads.” OC Supervisor Janet Nguyen told the Register, “When you start an investigation, you start discovering things that you never knew.” Nguyen told the Register that there are more than 3,000 emails to review.

In California, government secrecy and deception are standard operating procedures. Usually, it’s to cover up reckless spending, not a $54 million surplus.