While the rest of us nurse our election night hangovers, the partner with GoCo Consulting is usually on his way to a registrar of voters office to monitor ballot counting for a race that remains undecided. In 2007, Camp oversaw the recount in which Janet Nguyen flipped the results to become Orange County’s youngest county supervisor. As rare as recounts are, that alone makes him an expert witness.

Here at CalWatchdog.com, we’re closely monitoring the too close to call race for state controller. We were the first to predict that the race was likely headed for a recount. As of Wednesday, June 25 at 4:00 a.m., Board of Equalization member Betty Yee holds an 865-vote lead over Asm. John A. Perez, with just three counties and a grand total of 6,167 ballots left to count in the state. Lake County, which holds 98 percent of the remaining ballots, will decide which Democrat claims the final spot in the November run-off against Republican Ashley Swearengin, who finished first and already is guaranteed one of the two slots on the ballot.

But before that happens, a recount is all but certain. To help explain the ins and outs of a recount, Camp shares his five observations on recounts. 

1. There’s no rhyme or reason to it.

If someone says they have a strategy for winning a recount, Camp says they’re lying to you.  “There’s no rhyme or reason to it,” he says. “Recounts are a crap shoot no matter what.” That’s especially true at a statewide level, where you can pick and choose which counties to recount. “What do you do?” In the controller’s race, Camp says Perez might theoretically start recounting in Los Angeles where he did the strongest. Then again, Camp could easily make the argument for the opposite strategy. That’s because…

2. Human error is the biggest factor.

Human error is the single biggest factor in a recount, according to Camp. “There’s no bias, it’s usually just incompetence,” he says. Statistically speaking, mistakes are inevitable. And changes aren’t due to malicious acts by registrars of voters. With 4 million votes, a few hundred tabulated ballots is well within the realm of statistical possibilities. How do you know which registrar of voters — which county– is more likely to have experienced errors, and more importantly, which candidate benefited from those errors? Camps says you don’t.

Recounts are rare, but the best information we have comes from a study by the Center for Voting and Democracy, which analyzed statewide recounts from 2000-2009. According to the study, “In the five cases in which the total votes cast were above two million, the margin shift was on average 0.016% of the vote (fewer than one for every 6,400 votes cast).”

3. Start: We’re down. Stop: We’re ahead.

At a statewide level, California’s recount procedures allow candidates to pick and choose where and when the recount happens. “You can start in a certain county, and then stop,” Camp says. That means candidates could go into a county, start counting, hope the results flip, and then stop their recount. Of course, then the previous winner could restart their own recount in another county and hope the results once again flip back.

4. Recounts are completely unfair.

All of this picking and choosing makes recounts in California unfair. “It’s completely unfair unless they do a re-canvass of the whole state,” Camp says. That would be expensive, and under state law, it’s the requester who must pay. Perez raised more money for his controller campaign, but Yee is an important voice for the state’s Asian American community, which could raise the necessary funds to keep her competitive with Perez.

5. Practice the phrase, ‘Your honor’

Because recounts are “completely unfair,” Camps concludes, “It all gets challenged in court.” That means this race ain’t over even after it’s over and recounted. And that could be very bad for Democrats. An extended recount and ensuing court battle will only exacerbate the divide between Perez and Yee supporters.

Whichever Democrat wins will be deemed illegitimate by the losing side. Asian Americans, who see their influence waning, will be especially jaded if they believe Perez stole it in a recount.

“It’s time to step away for a while, and spend more time with my family and stay a little closer to home helping my community, as an active private citizen,” he said, according to his prepared remarks. “I know it’s cliché to say I am not running so I can spend more time with my family. Everybody says that. But the truth is, that is a major factor in my decision today.”

The son of an immigrant fieldworker turned mayor of Santa Maria, Maldonado has long been considered the Republicans’ best chance to reach out to the state’s growing Latino population, which is projected to become the state’s largest “race or ethnic group” in March. In 2000, although just a freshman state assemblyman, Maldonado was given a prominent speaking role at the Republican National Convention.

2009 tax vote damaged Maldonado’s rising star

Maldonado’s promising career stalled later in the decade with his 2009 vote for “the largest tax increase in California history.”

“It’s not surprising that Maldonado never caught fire with the voters on this campaign because of his deplorable record of raising taxes,” said Jon Fleischman, the publisher of the conservative website FlashReport.org.

In addition to struggling with the party’s conservative base, Maldonado’s candidacy failed to gain traction with the state’s top Republican donors. His last major campaign contribution reported to the Secretary of State’s Office occurred 60 days ago. According to campaign finance reports for the first half of 2013, the former state senator had raised $314,222, of which 60 percent had been spent on campaign consultants.

In September, Maldonado’s campaign went through a major staff shakeup as he ditched his expensive Washington D.C.-based campaign consultants in favor of a more grassroots operation that included Jimmy Camp, considered “one of the most highly respected Republican organizers in California.”

Tim Donnelly only GOP candidate now — but not for long

The announcement temporarily leaves Asm. Tim Donnelly, a favorite of the state’s Tea Party activists, as the only Republican challenger to Governor Jerry Brown. Donnelly, who thanked Maldonado for his years of service to the state, said that Maldonado’s decision provides voters with a stark contrast to Brown.

“With nearly 2 million Californians still out of work and California’s economy suffering, we remain focused on our message that’s resonating with voters – a real choice at the top of the ticket this fall,” Donnelly said. “Our goal in this primary has always been to clear the field, so that we can focus on our primary opponent, Jerry Brown. With the field narrowing, we intend to continue doing just that.”

However, Donnelly isn’t expected to remain the only Republican candidate for very long. Maldonado’s departure from the race could bolster the chances of moderate Republican Neel Kashkari, a former Bush administration Treasury Department official who managed the TARP financial bailout.

“I admire @abelmaldonado’s career of public service and know he has a lot more to contribute to California in the future,” Kashkari tweeted shortly after the announcement.

Kashkari, who is expected to formally announce his campaign soon, has made the state’s growing economic inequality a central theme of his tour throughout the state.

“Kashkari is packaging Republican issues in a way that’s designed to appeal to people who wouldn’t normally vote for Republicans,” observes UT San Diego columnist Steven Greenhut, who was impressed by Kashkari’s passion in a recent interview.

Jerry Brown well-positioned against all challengers

No matter which Republican candidate makes the November run-off, he is unlikely to defeat the Democratic incumbent. According to a Field Poll in December, Brown enjoys a 58 percent approval rating. By comparison, Brown’s predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger left office with an approval rating of just 22 percent.

Brown’s numbers are so strong that some have jokingly speculated that Brown could win a Republican Party primary. In the early 20th century, California gubernatorial candidates could run in both primaries.

“Ask yourself, if Jerry Brown, the powerful incumbent governor, were in a Republican primary today might he fare well against the Republican field?” posits Joel Fox, the editor of Fox & Hounds and president of the Small Business Action Committee. “The gubernatorial candidate many Republicans might think is the safest bet in the November election just may be Jerry Brown.”

Other candidates for governor include the Green Party’s Luis J. Rodriguez, who released a new campaign video Wednesday.