By John Seiler

We’ll have to see how the evening goes. But so far, the Top Two has not proved the revolutionary move to moderation that its backers hoped.

In a key race in Orange County, early returns show that incumbent Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, R-Costa Mesa, is finishing first in the new 74th Assembly District. Republican challenger Leslie Daigle, whose candidacy was supported by Top Two sponsor Charles Munger, among others, is finishing third, meaning she’s out. In second place is Robert Rush, a Democrat. So the November runoff will be as in the past: the Republican easily trouncing the Democrat.

The 74th was supposed to be more “moderate” than Mansoor’s previous district, the 68th, which includes more conservative inland area. The 74th includes more of Orange County’s coastal area. Many onlookers believe, Daigle, had she won in November, would have been more apt to join Democrats in backing tax increases.

But it turns out there are more anti-tax realists, like yours truly, than were expected.

We’ll see how Top Two fares the rest of the evening…

By Steven Greenhut

The AP headline declared, “Wisconsin voters divided on governor, bargaining,” but that piece reviewing exit polls stood in stark contrast to reality. Voters always are divided to some degree, but Wisconsin voters overwhelmingly rebuked the public-sector unions that had sought to recall reform-minded Republican Scott Walker. As of 9 pm California time, the election was called in his favor as he held an astounding 18 percentage-point lead.

Furthermore, the Republican lieutenant governor was also cruising to victory, as were four Republicans in the state Senate seats targeted by the Democrats and their labor union allies. This is a big victory not just for Wisconsin residents, who will continue to see good-government reforms proceed, but for the rest of the nation, even those of us in California.

Had the public-sector unions succeeded, then serious efforts to rein in pension costs for public-sector workers would have evaporated as politicians would have become too nervous to pursue them. Instead, politicians — a bunch generally driven by little more than a desire to hold and retain office — have learned that it’s possible to take on the unions and not only survive, but to prosper. Gov. Walker has just catapulted to the vice-presidential short list, and provided other things don’t trip him up, he has a promising national political future.

The Wisconsin victory also proves that reform can take place in blue states, in places where the union movement has prospered and where Democratic majorities are an ever-present reality. Wisconsin has for decades been at the heart of the progressive movement and remains a liberal bastion. California, of course, could not these days elect a Republican governor who takes on the unions, but we’re seeing signs that Democratic politicians might emerge who embrace a similar agenda.

Pension reform

In San Jose, Measure B — a serious pension reform measure that reduces benefits for current workers – passed overwhelmingly, with little opposition from the unions, which are gearing up for a legal fight. They know they can’t win in the democratic arena. The measure was leading with 71 percent of the vote in that Democratic city, which along with Scott Walker’s victory suggests that unions are now going to be backpedaling fast. Councilwoman Rose Herrera, the swing vote on the council, is leading in her race to retain her seat, which is more good news for San Jose pension reformers.

In San Diego, pension-reform councilman Carl DeMaio was leading the race for mayor, followed by Democrat Bob Filner, which is the best-possible news. A DeMaio-Filner general-election race will be great for DeMaio.

The likely third-place finisher is Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, one of the least principled politicians in the state. Fletcher claims to be for pension reform but has worked closely with the unions. If he finishes in second, he would be a much more formidable candidate for DeMaio. Fletcher’s career should be kaput if these results hold, given that this establishment Republican quit the GOP after it endorsed DeMaio, something that will make him persona non grata in the GOP. And the pension reform measure pushed by DeMaio, Proposition B, is winning by an overwhelming margin.

And now for some really great news, as Fullerton residents are well on their way to recalling three of the biggest buffoons to hold elected office in the county: council members Don Bankhead, Dick Jones and Pat McKinley. The three Republican pension-spiking, pro-redevelopment tax-hikers came into the figurative crosshairs of local activist Tony Bushala after they disgraced themselves by trying to downplay the horrific beating death of an unarmed homeless man by city police officers.

Also in OC, Assemblyman Allan Mansoor is handily beating the pro-union liberal Republican Leslie Daigle.

Sure, Todd Spitzer, the pro-union Republican who retroactively increased pensions for his deputy buddies as an OC supervisor, won back a seat on the board — but that was predictable given his weak opposition, establishment support and his huge war chest. This will soon be an embarrassment for the principle-lacking OC GOP as Spitzer will almost certainly go back to his old ways of advancing legislation designed to help public-sector unions. He will continue to seek the spotlight and once again the most dangerous place in Orange County will be between Todd Spitzer and a TV camera.

But if the results hold, this will be a great night for taxpayers and a terrible night for those public-sector unions that have been plundering the nation for so long.

By John Seiler

In preparation for next week’s election crunch, I’ve been taking a couple of days off to get in shape with plenty of sleep and bourbon. But something just happened I must report on.

At 3:39 pm today, I got a robocall on my cell that ended, “Paid by Leslie Daigle.” She’s running in the new 74th Assembly District against incumbent Allan Mansoor. Both are Republicans. I live in the district. My mailbox has been choked daily with two mailers from Daigle, one from Mansoor. She’s getting major funding from wealthy “moderate” Republicans.

The ad was a short spiel by Stanton Councilman David Shawver. Shawver himself is notorious for being the candidate government union goons pushed for Orange County supervisor in 2006 against anti-tax John Moorlach, who trounced Shawver with 70 percent of the vote.

Shawver is a big backer of the massive Measure J tax increase in Stanton. According to the statement he signed, “Measure J allows continued funding for public safety services by providing nearly $1.2 million annually in needed local funding.”

Of course, what they could do is cut cop and firefigher salaries and benefits, along the lines of the 9 percent drop in median incomes in California the past five years. Measure J, essentially, funds high cop and firefighter pay, perks and benefits — at the expense of struggling private-sector taxpayers.

In the robocall I just got, Shawver attacked Mansoor for voting in the Assembly to “take money from our local communities and give it to the state government.”

Translation from the Shawver mendacity: Mansoor voted to end redevelopment, which saved the state $1.5 billion in other budget cuts or tax increases. Redevelopment essentially robs poor and middle-class people of their property and gives it to crony capitalist developers. One of the few good things to happen to this state in recent years is that, because of the budget crunch, redevelopment ended.

So if Daigle replaces Mansoor in the Assembly, by the admission of her own ad she will back robbing the poor and middle-class property owners to reward the crony capitalists.

Under the new Top Two system, to really lose, Daigle has to finish third next Tuesday, after Mansoor and the Democratic candidate, whose name isn’t worth remembering. If Mansoor prevails eventually in November, it’s possible the Republican party will survive in California. Mansoor is anti-tax increase and takes the side of the middle-class taxpayers that form the backbone of the party.

But if Daigle survives on Tuesday, then beats Mansoor in November, the California GOP will begin Cheyne-Stokes respiration and should be given its last rites.

By Steven Greenhut

If you wonder why the GOP is having such hard times, one need only look at the goings-on in Orange County, where Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh is pulling out all the stops to ensure the election to the board of supervisors of Todd Spitzer, the former Assemblyman who is a close union ally and someone who proudly increased pensions for his deputy sheriff union friends and then stood by that action right until he started getting political heat for doing so.

Baugh declared that no Republican who gets union support will get his or the party’s support, yet he is lending much support to Spitzer who continues to funnel past union money into his current election account. That technicality is enough for Baugh to turn a blind eye to a candidate who spent his career doing all the things that Baugh rails against. Baugh likes Spitzer and dislikes his board opponent, Deborah Pauly, so he is helping Spitzer.

But hypocrisy and lack of principle have a way of backfiring. Baugh recently sent out a letter to the GOP Central Committee making this case in another race:

“There has been significant activity in the 74^th Assembly District where our endorsed incumbent Allan Mansoor is running for re-election.  … It seems that Allan’s opponent, Leslie Daigle, has not been honest with us or the voters.  Do you remember when she came to our party asking for an endorsement for her city council race in Newport Beach?  At the time, she represented that she did not vote for 3@50 in Newport Beach, and she said that she supported defined contribution plans – not defined benefit plans.  Interesting . . . we actually learned that she voted for retroactive 3@50 defined benefits plans for firemen!  That wasn’t enough for her.  She turned around and then gave the same retroactive 3@50 defined benefit for lifeguards.  That’s right – two different votes supporting 3@50.  …”

Certainly, I agree with Baugh that Daigle is a liberal, tax-hiking, pension-spiking candidate and Mansoor is a pretty solid guy. But how can Baugh be so angry at Daigle for doing something even less egregious than that done by his close ally, Todd Spitzer? After all, Daigle voted for non-retroactive pension increases and Spitzer led the charge for a county-wide retroactive pension spike. Spitzer, by the way, is atrocious on civil liberties issues, a law-and-order, big-government guy with at least as much baggage as Daigle, although they are nightmares in different ways.

The OC Register editorial board noticed this as well. (Although I write a column for the Register and have written occasional editorials, I did not have anything to do with this one.) Wrote the Register:

“It is reassuring, after so many years of sounding alarms about the looming carnage pensions can inflict on government budgets, that more people are holding elected officials accountable for misguided votes, but the criticism should be consistently applied.”

Actually, Baugh is not being unprincipled, he seems to be applying this basic principle: If he likes you or dislikes your opponent, he will forgive any past votes and even current indiscretions. If he dislikes you or likes your opponent, he will hold you to a very high standard.

Welcome to the modern OC GOP.

MAY 20, 2012