Two months ago, Republican operatives feared that presidential nominee Donald Trump would destroy their chances to

Now things look much brighter for the party after a rough stretch for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The Senate appears less at risk because the fact that Trump is the GOP nominee doesn’t seem to be held against GOP incumbents. Gerrymandering appears to have left the House Republican majority safe, perhaps until 2022, after the next census.

But in California, at least, the assumption remains the Trump will drag down GOP candidates in congressional races. That’s why the state Democratic Party is seeking in seven swing districts to target Republicans who are “running on the Trump ticket,” according to a party statement last week as it launched the WrongForCA.com website and related social media efforts.

Four of the Republicans are incumbents: Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, Darrell Issa, R-Vista, Steve Knight, R-Lancaster, and David Valadao, R-Hanford.

The other three are businessman Justin Fareed, seeking the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps in the Santa Barbara area; businesswoman Denise Gitsham, who’s going against Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, who is targeting Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove

Michael Soller, communications director for the California Democratic Party, likened Trump’s candidacy to a “sick joke.”

The best hope of sinking a GOP incumbent may be in Issa’s district, which straddles north San Diego County and south Orange County and appears to be moving leftward from its traditional Republicanism. Issa only got 51 percent of the vote in the June primary and has a higher-profile opponent than in past elections, former Marine Lt. Col. Doug Applegate. Running against a poorly funded, little-known Democrat in November 2014, Issa took 60 percent of the vote. The former chairman of the House oversight committee has endorsed Trump, while also making clear his lack of enthusiasm for the New York billionaire.

In November 2014, Denham won with 56 percent of the vote. Knight won with 53 percent and Valadao with 58 percent.

GOP could take first CA Democratic House seat since 1998

Of the other three races, the most surprising is the battle for the seat of the retiring Capps. The Cook Political Report moved the race between Fareed and Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal from “solid Democrat” to “leaning Democrat” last week after Carbajal’s campaign released a seemingly credible Tarrance Group poll showing Fareed up 46 percent to 43 percent.

But as the Cook analysis noted, California Republicans have not won a congressional district represented by a Democrat since 1998. That was when then-Assemblyman Steven T. Kuykendall, R-Rancho Palos Verdes, defeated Janice Hahn of the dynastic Los Angeles political family for a seat that had previously been held by Jane Harman, who ran for governor in 1998. Harman defeated Kuykendall in 2000, making him the only House incumbent to lose that year.

Hanh succeeded Harman in 2011.

It’s what Republicans fear and Democrats embrace: How the controversial presumptive nomination of Donald Trump as the GOP’s presidential candidate will affect races further down the ballot.

Democrats are hoping to tie Trump around the necks of Republican candidates throughout the state, particularly among Latino voters who have so far largely rejected Trump in polling — and the ads are just beginning. 

Democratic PACs announced one such ad yesterday for a coastal congressional race, while another ad has been floating around online for an Assembly seat in Los Angeles County. 

Much of Trump’s strength is derived from his “outsider” status — a strong personality untainted by Washington. He’s mastered the art of winning headlines by making brash statements often seen as anti-immigrant and misogynistic. 

But it’s those outlandish comments that may make it hard to paint a fellow member of the GOP with the same brush, absent an endorsement, which neither of the two attacked candidates have done. 

“The problem for them is Trump is not transferable that way,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who specializes in Latino issues. “No one believes someone is a Trump Republican. Trump’s whole rise is that he’s not a typical Republican nor a typical politician. Very little evidence to suggest this will work.”

Ads

The House Majority PAC and CHC BOLD PAC are spending almost $300,000 in an ad campaign attacking Republican Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian as a Trump-like, anti-immigrant demagogue.

The ad supports Democrat Salud Carbajal. Both men are running to replace the retiring Democratic Congresswoman Lois Capps in a district that runs from Santa Barbara to north of Morro Bay. 

The district is more than one-third Latino, but has a close partisan split — Democrats have 39.79 percent of registered voters to Republicans’ 33.65 percent, with 22.87 percent declining to state. 

In Los Angeles County’s South Bay, former Democratic Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi is trying attacks like www.hadleytrump.com against the man who knocked him out of the Legislature in 2014, Republican David Hadley. Slightly different than the Achadjian ad, Muratsuchi is attacking Hadley for not denouncing Trump.

Hadley won by only 1 percent of the vote in the 21-percent Latino district. Democrats have nearly an 8 percent voter registration advantage, with 22.74 percent declining to state a preference. 

“These ads are exactly what Trump exposes Republicans to in swing districts,” said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, who launched a campaign to stop a Trump nomination earlier this year. “Hadley’s answer is savvy though. I’m not convinced there’s a huge liability for ‘refusing to denounce’ him in general. But Trump will surely get trounced in (Hadley’s) district.”

Polling

A Field Poll last month showed 83 percent of Latino voters in the state had an unfavorable view of Trump, with even 69 percent of white voters having an unfavorable view (which is the most favorable of all the ethnicities).

And tying a candidate to an unpopular figure is a successful technique, to the extent that it can drive voter turnout. In 1996, President Bill Clinton tied his Republican challenger, Sen. Bob Dole, to former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. The Trump connection will be successful to the extent that it can drive voter turnout. 

“When it comes to motivating Hispanic turnout, Trump is the greatest gift that Democrats could want,” said John J. Pitney, Jr., a Roy P. Crocker professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.

John Seiler:

Let the cry go up across the land: Stop Maldonado!

Taxpayer traitor Abel Maldonado now is running for U.S. Congress. It was just two years ago that, as a state senator, he sold taxpayers down the river by proving the key Republican vote for the record $13 billion tax increase of then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger-Shriver-Kennedy. Maldo even had given his solemn word that he never would increase taxes.

As a reward, Arnold appointed Maldo to the vacant seat of lieutenant governor, a job that shouldn’t even exist.

Maldo — the California Benedict Arnold — even has the chutzpah to say: “Washington needs people who are independent and bipartisan and who are fiscally responsible, and I think I’ve demonstrated that.”

In fact: Washington already has too many tax-increase traitors like him. He’s not “independent,” but sold out to become Arnold’s chauffeur. He’s fiscally irresponsible. Which he amply has demonstrated.

Republicans need to make sure they put up someone someone decent — a real fiscal conservative and anti-tax activist — to defeat Maldo in the primary. If Maldo ends up on the November 2012 ballot, then all efforts should be made to re-elect the Democratic incumbent, Lois Capps.

Treason should have a price.

Feb. 26, 2011