In fact, most of the larger defeats over the last year or so have been due to intraparty fighting. It was mostly moderate Democrats who last year weakened landmark environmental legislation, SB350. This year, they struck again when they initially killed a measure expanding overtime protections for farmworkers.  

In those instances, the moderates formed a majority with Republicans, which means both share the blame (or praise). But while Republicans often get blamed, the truth is that there aren’t enough Republicans to block most votes. It was Democrats solely who twice sank a Democratic bill expanding parental leave — once by a Democratic majority on a policy committee (possibly due to a grudge) and then a revived version was vetoed by the Democratic governor, Jerry Brown.  

What it takes

Democrats need to flip two seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate to get a supermajority — and it’s possible. With a supermajority, Democrats would have the power to increase taxes, override gubernatorial vetoes (which rarely happens) and change legislative rules without Republican votes.

Most bills require a simple majority, which means Democrats have more than enough votes most of the time. But a united bloc can be elusive in a state as large and diverse as California, where different members have different needs based on their districts.  

“Taxes and rules, that’s about it,” said Steve Maviglio, a prominent Democratic strategist in California. “And it’s rare that either party is a monolith. If Democrats win in competitive districts, they often will get a pass on tough votes anyway.”

They don’t always get a pass though. For example, Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown, an Inland Empire Democrat, faces tremendous opposition from a more liberal opponent in her re-election bid, largely due to votes that have riled environmentalists. Just as the opposing party tries to weed out incumbents in moderate districts, the more ideologically “pure” try to weed out centrists within the party.

The Democratic dividing line

The moderate caucus is mostly people of color, like Assemblywoman Brown. According to Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who specializes in Latino issues, economic issues will be the dividing line in the Democratic Party — between moderate Democrats of color in blue-collar districts and wealthy, coastal liberals (mostly white and particularly in the Bay Area), who have outsized influence over policy in the state.

For example, the farmworker overtime bill was largely supported by members along the coast, despite most of the farms being inland. The bill was killed in the summer by the Republican/Moderate coaltion, but enough moderates (and one Republican) switched to support in the last days of the legislative session. 

“There’s a growing economic argument that is going to be made as we grow poverty, as income inequality continues to divide, as housing affordability becomes more and more out of reach and as our education program continues to disproportionately hurt kids of color — all of these are major substantive policy issues, which are fundamentally about the economy — there’s a growing disparity between white progressives and moderate Democrats of color,” Madrid said. “That’s going to be the dividing line.”

Bad for Democracy?

If Republicans do get relegated to superminority status, their reduced role could have greater implications for the fate of Democracy. 

“It’s not good for the health of a two-party system, since it marginalizes Republican members of the respective chambers,” said Mark Petracca, chair of the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine. “This marginalization means less buy-in to the policy making process and can result in even greater political polarization.”

Opportunity for Republicans

No matter how many Republicans are left in the Legislature after Tuesday (after all, they may hold or pick up seats as well), there’s an opportunity to regain some influence over policy making. They can work with the moderate Democrats on issues like education reform and economic development and improvement, as the strength of the moderates is proportionate to the size of the Republican caucus. They need each other, at least on certain issues, according to Madrid. 

“But they’re going to have to get out of their ideological box and come up with new and better ideas that address a changing California,” Madrid said of Republicans.

Veto overrides

While a supermajority does give one party in the Legislature the power to override a gubernatorial veto, it’s not likely to happen, at least not while there’s a Democratic governor. According to the One Voter Project, Republicans did propose the last attempted veto override, in 2012, which failed. The last successful override was in 1979, when Jerry Brown was governor the first time.

While the bill received nearly unanimous support in the Legislature — the measure was in response to the Brock Turner case, where the former Stanford University swimmer received a few months in county jail and probation after sexually assaulting an unconscious woman — law and order is a basic tenet of Republican ideology.

“All victims of sexual assault deserve equal treatment regardless of socio-economics, education or immigration status,” the Orange County Congresswoman wrote to Gov. Brown. “However, the reality is that the law can and has failed victims by giving well-connected and affluent predators like Brock Turner an advantage with an alumni judge who will neglect the crime and ultimately disregard the victim.”

In the letter, Sanchez also highlighted her work on the House Armed Services Committee, where she pushed for policies that cracked down on how the military deals with sexual assaults. 

“As the highest-ranking woman on the Armed Services Committee and the founder and chair of the Congressional Women in the Military Caucus, I understand from testimonies that sexual assault can happen anywhere, anytime and by anyone,” Sanchez wrote.

The Times called it

Earlier Thursday morning, the Los Angeles Times published a story headlined: “Hurting for support in her own party, Rep. Loretta Sanchez tilts her Senate campaign to the right.” Only a few hours later the letter to Brown was released to the news media. 

Sanchez has made it no secret that she is hoping to ride a coalition of Latinos, some Democrats, independents and Republicans to victory over the Democratic establishment candidate, Attorney General Kamala Harris, who is the frontrunner. There is no Republican in the race as the two women seek to replace Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, who is retiring. 

Sanchez has drawn several high-profile Republican endorsements. And the Times article focused on recent boasting of her record against “Islamic extremists” on a conservative radio show, a recent trip to Shasta Lake (in the deeply red, proposed State of Jefferson) to discuss water issues and a joint appearance at Camp Pendleton with conservative firebrand Darrell Issa, the Vista congressman. 

Mark Petracca, chair of the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine, said the play to the right seems “desperate” and is “highly unlikely” to work for fears of Republican undervoting.

“It’s intended to attract GOP voters who do not have a dog in the fight,” Petracca said. “(GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump) is losing the state right now at least handily and there’s no excitement at the top of the ticket to mobilize GOP voters on Election Day. Is Loretta going to get them out to vote for her? Highly unlikely.”

Will it work?

In fact, of all the groups she’s hoping to win, she’s only performing strongly among Latinos, although there’s plenty of time to change that as the campaign ramps up. Harris led among the rest, according to a July poll from the Public Policy Institute of California.

However, Sanchez has a history of upsets. Sanchez was first elected to Congress two decades ago after defeating Republican Congressman Bob Dornan, who was heavily favored. But Sanchez walks a fine line now, trying to win Republicans while not alienating Latinos and Democrats in an extremely partisan era when the space between the two sides widens each day.

But there’s two differences: While releasing tax returns is a time-honored tradition in presidential elections (as is fighting over them), it’s not common for legislative candidates. And unlike Trump, both candidates’ salary information is mostly available online.

The campaign of Sharon Quirk-Silva — the Democrat who Kim knocked out of office in 2014 — said Kim’s refusal to release her tax returns raises questions about her commitment to transparency: What is she hiding?

Of course,  the campaign also concedes it doesn’t necessarily believe Kim’s hiding anything. Matthew Reilly, a Quirk-Silva spokesman, told CalWatchdog that “our politics are being dragged down by people who aren’t on the up and up,” but said he didn’t have much reason to believe Kim isn’t on the “up and up.”

“I don’t know,” Reilly said. “I assume that she is, but I don’t know.”

Quirk-Silva provided five years of tax returns showing her and her husband’s salaries, which were also largely available online because both have been public employees for years.

Reilly did not respond to requests for tax returns from other legislative candidates he works with.

What about Kim?

A spokesman for Kim, Bryan Shroyer, provided only one year of Kim’s tax returns — 2015 — which also showed information that was largely available online — her Assembly salary and benefits.

It also suggested that her husband, Charles Kim, did not draw an income last year, which Shroyer confirmed: “He spent 2015 working as a volunteer for several community organizations.” Charles Kim’s resume, which can be found online, shows years of community activity, with many appointments and volunteer positions. 

“We’re not going to play (Quirk-Silva’s) game,” said Shroyer. “Every tax return would continue to show exactly what is already public record. Her salary, interest earned, and holdings are all listed on her Statement of Economic Interests filed with the secretary of state. This is just silly.”

Prior to coming to the Legislature, Kim worked as a congressional staffer for Republican Congressman Ed Royce — she made around $80,000 working for him in 2013. In between her time with Royce and being elected to the Legislature Kim ran what she previously described as a consulting firm for small businesses, which generated only a little income. 

Ironically, Kim is the lowest paid member of the Assembly, having refused every pay increase since assuming office in 2015.

Why are we even talking about this?

The practice of releasing tax returns in presidential campaigns dates back to 1952 when another famous Orange County resident, Richard Nixon, suggested he’d release his own tax returns to quell concerns about his finances in an effort to stay on Dwight Eisenhower’s presidential ticket.

Although his Democratic opponents released their tax returns, Nixon ultimately did not (at least until four years later). But the practice became common in the early 1970s, and then in 1978, it became required that presidential and vice presidential candidates make public certain financial information. However, while expected, releasing tax returns is still not a requirement. 

“There’s much less history of this in a legislative race,” said Mark Petracca, chair of the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine. “The candidate who asks/demands that an opponent releases his or her returns really has nothing to lose by asking.”

“If the opponent does not release, that can be made into a political issue; if the opponent releases and
there’s something untoward in the filing, that can be made into political hay as well,” Petracca said. “Finally, if the opponent releases and there’s no there there — nothing out of the ordinary — then everyone just moves on.” 

“So it costs nothing to insist that they be released. The burden here falls squarely on the opponent and their calculation about whether they are better off releasing or holding back,” Petracca said.

This seat matters

This is one of the most important races in California this cycle — it will help decide the balance of power in the Legislature. Democrats need to pickup only two Assembly seats and one Senate seat to attain a supermajority, where they would be free to increase taxes, among other things, without Republican input.

This seat will also affect the influence of the women’s caucus by potentially adding another member to the Democratic women’s voting bloc. While Kim is a member of the women’s caucus, the legislative focus of the caucus is often divided along party lines.