A group of moderate California Republicans that wants the party to rebrand itself as both pro-business and pro-environment and show a willingness to work with Democrats on some issues is back in the news this week. Led by Assemblyman Chad Mayes (pictured), R-Yucca Valley, and supported by former Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the New Way California group announced the launching of a website devoted to transforming the state GOP.

“There isn’t an overnight fix,” former Assembly GOP Leader Kristin Olsen of Modesto, a New Way board member, told the Sacramento Bee. “This is a slow journey that requires us to get out into communities.”

New Way officials cited the recent news that the GOP had fallen to third in state political registration behind Democrats and decline-to-state voters as evidence of the need for a new approach.

But Mayes, Olsen and their allies may have an even more uphill challenge than they think. A prototypical “New Way California” deal that Mayes cut last year when he was Assembly GOP leader arguably hasn’t yielded any dividends. He helped Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown round up eight Republican state lawmakers so an extension of the state’s cap-and-trade program until 2030 could receive the two-thirds support it needed – in keeping with Mayes’ thesis about the party needing to alter its direction.

But Mayes’ move triggered a firestorm among Republican activists who cited a state Legislative Analyst’s Office letter from March 2017 forecasting that cap-and-trade could lead to a 63-cents-per-gallon increase in gas prices by 2021. He was deposed as Assembly GOP leader within weeks after cutting the deal with Brown.

Meanwhile, the big concession Mayes secured in return for lining up Republican votes for cap-and-trade flopped with voters. That concession: the Legislature’s vote to place what would become Proposition 70 on the June 5 primary election ballot. The complex measure could have given state GOP lawmakers a chance to kill new funding for the embattled state bullet-train project in 2024 by requiring that the use of cap-and-trade pollution emission fees be approved with two-thirds votes of both the Assembly and the Senate.

Gov. Brown joined the state Chamber of Commerce in backing the ballot measure. But after it was savaged by other Democrats as a stealth effort to protect polluters, Proposition 70 lost 65 percent to 35 percent.

Recall showed anger over approval of higher fuel taxes

Further undercutting Mayes’ push for a rebranded GOP was another June 5 development: the recall of state Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, by a 59 percent to 41 percent landslide. The recall effort was triggered by Newman’s vote last year for a 10-year, $52 billion increase in vehicle fuel taxes and fees to fund road and transit projects and improvements.

This is widely seen by political analysts as evidence that the California Republicans’ most traditional policy position – a sharp opposition to higher taxes – continues to be potent.

This is also evident in the ease with which a Republican-led effort to repeal the tax hikes gathered enough signatures to make the November ballot.

Some Democrats depict the campaign as benefitting from a coincidental rise in gasoline prices during signature gathering in the winter and spring. But Republicans point to a recent poll showing a majority of state voters are ready to scrap the tax hike and say Californians are as inclined as ever to oppose higher taxes that affect everyone – as opposed to Proposition 55, the successful 2016 ballot measure that renewed “temporary” income tax hikes on the very wealthy.

The Republican candidates – Assemblyman Travis Allen of Huntington Beach and Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox – reflect the GOP consensus that the project is a boondoggle that’s unlikely to ever be completed. But the major Democratic hopefuls – Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Treasurer John Chiang and former Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin – have all indicated they would continue with rail project, albeit with little of the enthusiasm shown by present Gov. Jerry Brown.

While the new business plan was depicted by the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s new CEO, Brian Kelly, as a constructive step toward salvaging the project, the plan’s key details were daunting:

The estimated cost of the project, which has yo-yoed from $34 billion to $98 billion to $64 billion, changed once again. The business plan abandoned the previous $64 billion estimate for an estimate of $77 billion – accompanied by a warning that the cost could go as high as $98 billion.

Even at the lower price tag, the state didn’t have adequate funds to complete a first $20 billion-plus bullet-train segment linking populated areas. The present plan for a Central Valley route has an eastern terminus in a remote agricultural field north of Shafter. That’s because the $9.95 billion in bond seed money that state voters provided in 2008 has only been buttressed to a relatively slight degree by additional public dollars from cap-and-trade pollution permits.

The business plan cites the possibility of additional federal funds beyond the $3.3 billion allocated by Washington early in the Obama administration. It doesn’t note, however, that domestic discretionary spending has plunged in recent years amid congressional concern about the national debt blowing past $20 trillion.

The business plan also promotes the possibility of outside investors. It doesn’t mention that such investors have passed on the project for years because state law bars the California High-Speed Rail Authority from offering them a revenue or ridership guarantee.

From 5 years behind schedule to 10 years behind

The initial operation of a bullet-train link serving California residents went from five years behind schedule, in the estimate of the Los Angeles Times, to 10 years behind schedule. The business plan said the project would begin operations no sooner than 2029.

The potential immense cost overrun of the bullet train segment in the mountains north of Los Angeles was fully acknowledged for the first time. A 2015 Times story laid out the “monumental” challenge.

Democratic candidates to succeed Brown have chosen to focus on housing, single-payer health care, immigration and criticism of President Donald Trump in most early forums and campaign appearances. But front-runners Newsom and Villaraigosa in particular seem likely to be pressed on how they can square their claims to be experienced, tough-minded managers with support for a project which seems less likely to be completed with every passing year.

Proposition 70 on the June primary ballot also will keep the bullet train on the campaign’s front burner, to some extent. It was placed on the ballot as part of a 2017 deal cut by the governor to extend the state’s cap-and-trade program until 2030. If Proposition 70 passed, it would require a one-off vote in 2024 in which cap-and-trade proceeds could only be used for specific needs with two-thirds support of each house of the Legislature. Republicans may be able to use these votes to shut off the last ongoing source of new revenue for the high-speed rail project.