The law firms – Gibson Dunn and Van Dermyden Maddux – concluded in a four-page summary of its findings that “it is more likely than not” that Mendoza engaged in “unwanted flirtatious or sexually suggestive behavior” toward six women who worked at the Capitol over the past decade. But the firm’s investigation cleared Mendoza of the harshest overall allegation he faced: the claim he fired three staff members in September in an attempt to squelch an investigation into his conduct. The probe found no evidence linking the firings and the filing of a report with the Senate Rules Committee that alleged Mendoza had repeatedly asked a young Senate fellow to come home with him to “look at resumes.” The investigation also found — except for one women who was kissed on the cheek — no evidence of physical contact between Mendoza and the women he hit on; and no evidence of retaliation against those who rejected his advances.

The Sacramento Bee broke the story last fall of allegations against Mendoza involving three former employees. Within a few days, state Senate President Kevin de Leon moved out of the Sacramento-area home he shared with Mendoza when the two Los Angeles County Democrats were in legislative session.

De Leon, who is running for U.S. Senate, has insisted he was unaware of any improper conduct by Mendoza, who is currently on paid leave.

The investigation included 51 interviews with 47 individuals. Mendoza, who is married and has four children, was among a few people interviewed twice. Last night, he issued a statement calling the investigation inadequate and a rush to judgment.

Report backs claim he gave alcohol to minor

While the report on Mendoza was far less damning than the allegations against Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, D-Pacoima, and Assemblyman Matt Dababneh, D-Woodland Hills – who resigned late last year after being accused by several women of sexual misconduct – it contradicts Mendoza on the most serious harassment allegation against him. In 2008, according to then-19-year-old Jennifer Kwart, Mendoza provided the underage intern with alcoholic drinks from the minibar in a suite at a San Jose hotel that was hosting the California Democratic Party state convention. Kwart says Mendoza made plain he expected sex, leading her to concoct a family emergency and leave the following morning.

Unlike his responses to some of the allegations made against him, Mendoza dismissed Kwart’s claims as “completely false.” The lawyers hired by the Senate Rules Committee concluded otherwise, finding that it was “more likely than not” that Mendoza “offered and subsequently had alcoholic drinks with the intern in the hotel suite” and “engaged in unwanted flirtatious and sexually suggestive conversation with the intern.”

Mendoza, 46, a former elementary-school teacher, served as an Assembly member from 2006 to 2012. He was elected to the Senate in 2014 and was expected to coast to re-election this November. Even if the Senate chooses not to oust him, the allegations will be a headache for Mendoza going forward. The Los Angeles Daily News reported earlier this month that Rio Hondo College board trustee Vicky Santana, a risk manager with the Los Angeles County Probation Department, would definitely challenge Mendoza. The report also said Montebello Mayor Vanessa Delgado had pulled papers and was considering running. Both Santana and Delgado are Democrats.

UPDATED AT 1:45 P.M.

Seven weeks since stories about Harvey Weinstein in the New York Times and the New Yorker triggered a wave of sexual harassment allegations around the nation, California state lawmakers are on edge both about their pasts and what the future may hold.

Allegations about four named current and ex-lawmakers and a fifth unnamed one have been publicly reported. But lawmakers who faced past accusations of wrongdoing and thought they were past the risk of fallout could be in for a rude surprise if Assembly and Senate practices are changed and the results of previous disciplinary hearings and investigations are disclosed.

Going forward, all harassment allegations are going to be investigated independently – breaking with a system that long seemed to value keeping dirt hidden as much or more than having a healthy Capitol working environment. The Assembly will hold a hearing Tuesday on new policies and the Senate is likely to in coming weeks.

Four accused lawmakers identified; the fifth still not revealed

Here are the accused and where they stand:

Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, D-Pacoima. Bocanegra resigned Monday — a month to the day after the Los Angeles Times broke the story that Bocanegra had been secretly reprimanded in 2009 for an incident in which he allegedly groped and stalked Elise Flynn Gyore at a time when both were legislative staffers. Since then, six more women have come forward with allegations of improper behavior by Bocanegra. He initially said he would resign in September 2018 at the end of the next legislative session, but that didn’t placate critics who said he should quit now or be kicked out if he refused to leave. Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Lakewood, had promised Bocanegra would be “immediately” expelled if an independent investigation confirmed the allegations against him.

Former Assemblyman Steve Fox, D-Palmdale. On Oct. 18, the Sacramento Bee reported that it had obtained a copy of a settlement reached in April in which the Assembly agreed to pay $100,000 to Nancy Kathleen Finnigan, who worked for Fox as legislative director in 2013, during his only term in office. Finnigan alleged Fox had exposed himself to her and then fired her when she complained about his behavior. Finnigan’s suit was filed in 2014, when she first publicly accused Fox of sexual harassment, discrimination and retaliation. Fox denied the allegations and dismissed her as a disgruntled ex-employee.

The political career of Fox, 64, who has worked as a teacher and lawyer, may not be over. His 2012 win of a long-GOP-held Assembly seat was considered flukish, and he lost by more than 20 percent to Republican Tom Lackey in his 2014 re-election bid. But in 2016, while Lackey defeated Fox again, his margin of victory was only 6 percent.

Assemblyman Devon Mathis, R-Visalia. On Oct. 20, anonymous allegations that had surfaced on a website run by conservative activist Joseph Turner claiming that Mathis had sexually violated a passed-out staff member were printed in the Fresno Bee. Mathis denied the allegations and on Nov. 15 was cleared by the Sacramento Police Department, which said detectives were “unable to substantiate” if a crime had occurred.

The Assembly Rules Committee, however, has hired a private attorney to investigate allegations of improper behavior, according to Mathis’ hometown paper, the Times-Delta.

State Sen. Tony Mendoza, D-Artesia. Starting with a Nov. 9 story in the Bee, three young women have come forward with allegations of improper behavior, including a 19-year-old intern hoping for a permanent job on his staff who was invited by Mendoza to come to the Sacramento-area home he lives in part-time to “review resumes.” The twist: Mendoza until recently shared the home with state Senate President Kevin de Leon, who denied knowing of any wrongdoing by his former roommate. Mendoza, like Fox, has denied wrongdoing. De Leon has not said what his intentions are if a pending independent inquiry finds the allegations against Mendoza credible.

The fifth accused lawmaker has so far not been identified. On Oct. 19, Sacramento lobbyist Pamela Lopez told CNN that a current member of the Legislature – a “big man” – had trapped her in the restroom of a Sacramento bar in 2016 and masturbated in front of her.

Lopez has been urged by activists to name the lawmaker but has so far declined to do so.

“I have sought counsel from community members and constituents. After much discussion and reflection, the most prudent decision to avoid another costly special election in Los Angeles and ensure our community is not left without any representation in the state Assembly would be for me to resign at the end of the legislative session,” said Bocanegra in a statement.

According to the L.A. Times, the resignation came after it presented an article to the assemblyman’s office Friday afternoon in which six women accused him of sexual harassment.

It was revealed last month that Bocanegra had been disciplined in 2009 for “inappropriate and unwelcome physical contact” with and “inappropriate and unwelcome verbal remarks” directed at a legislative staffer at an after-work event.

Elise Flynn Gyore said Bocanegra, who was then chief of staff for then-Assemblyman Felipe Fuentes, “menaced me that evening,” groping her and following her in a threatening manner.

Bocanegra was first elected to the Assembly in 2012, then narrowly defeated in 2014. He then won in a rematch in 2016.

Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, announced this week that all harassment investigations in his chamber will be handled by an outside legal firm. De Leon also announced that he was moving out of a house he shared with Sen. Tony Mendoza, the Artesia Democrat who is the latest legislator accused of inappropriate behavior.

California’s state government has been dealing with a sexual harassment scandal after 140 influential women who have worked in and around the Capitol published an open letter in mid-October stating that they have “endured, or witnessed or worked with women who have experienced some form of dehumanizing behavior by men with power in our workplaces.”

Signed by six sitting legislators, the letter decried such behavior “in a state that postures itself as a leader in justice and equality.” The California Legislative Women’s Caucus was even more pointed, as its statement alleged “a lack of accountability and remorse” and a “pervasive culture of sexual harassment within California politics.” The statement claimed that “the Legislature’s own zero-tolerance policies are not enforced.”

A couple of prominent legislators have been caught up in the scandal. First, longtime Capitol staffer Elise Flynn Gyore said that she was treated like “prey” and then groped by Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, D-Pacoima, in 2009, when he was a staffer. The Assembly Rules Committee investigated and disciplined Bocanegra, but didn’t release the details to a group of 11 women who sought such information when he was running for office with widespread party backing.

Bocanegra recently has apologized for the incident, but the details raise questions about an institution that some people say values secrecy over accountability. It’s also led to criticism of Sen. Nancy Skinner, a Berkeley Democrat known for her strong stance for women’s rights, who chaired the Assembly Rules Committee at the time of the incident. KPIX-TV in the Bay Area contacted one of the women who signed the letter asking for the file on the harassment complaint, but she said that “Nancy Skinner never responded to their request.”

Now Mendoza is in the spotlight. Southern California Public Radio reported that Mendoza “fired three employees after they reported his alleged inappropriate behavior toward a young female colleague, according to an attorney representing one of the staffers.”

Mendoza denies the allegations and apologized if he “ever communicated or miscommunicated anything that made an employee feel uncomfortable.” He also says the firings were based on work performance. The Sacramento Bee broke the news this week about allegations from a second intern. She claims that Mendoza took her to his hotel suite at the California Democratic Party convention and acted inappropriately toward her. Mendoza’s spokesperson told the Bee that that the woman’s recounting of what took place was “completely false.”

And the Senate president has received criticism, with some “wondering how de Leon – who chairs the Senate committee that investigates allegations of sexual harassment – could have been unaware of the reports and investigation into his roommate,” reported the San Jose Mercury News. De Leon denies knowing anything about the reports.

The scandal comes against the backdrop of Alabama’s Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore, who is facing sexual misconduct allegations – a nationally publicized story that’s being depicted by Moore and some of his supporters as a “witch hunt.” And, of course, sexual harassment allegations have been roiling the entertainment industry.

For California political observers, the big questions are whether the Capitol has fostered an insular environment that promotes, or at least tolerates, sexual misbehavior – and whether de Leon’s new rules have a chance of fixing that situation.

Specifically, the new approach will remove the Senate Rules Committee from dealing with harassment allegations. “Instead, an independent outside legal team will investigate any and all allegations and make findings and recommendations to resolve and, where appropriate, discipline,” according to the committee’s statement this week. “The Senate’s Rules Committee and Senate Democratic Women’s Caucus will work jointly and expeditiously to retain a highly qualified team of counsel and investigators to fulfill this obligation.”

The committee stated that the process “will be designed to protect the privacy of victims and whistleblowers, transparency for the public, and adequate due process for all parties involved.” The “general findings will be made public” even if some names and details will be withheld based on the discretion of “victims and whistleblowers.” This will apply to all current complaints. The committee has also asked the women’s caucus to make recommendations for reform and has retained a human-resources consulting firm to review its policies.

Yet some critics believe that by bringing in an outside legal firm that this could establish attorney-client privilege and shield key facts from the public. But others believe the rules will help Capitol staffers, who are at-will hires who can be fired for any reason, to feel more comfortable lodging a complaint. “The short-range plan is to pull this out of the current system where people really don’t feel their complaints will be handled appropriately,” Sen. Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, told Capital Public Radio. She is on the rules committee.

Even if the new process succeeds in dealing more forthrightly with particular harassment claims, it might just be the first step in dealing with broader problems within the Capitol.

Steven Greenhut is Western region director for the R Street Institute. Write to him at sgreenhut@rstreet.org.

The far-reaching reverberations from the Harvey Weinstein sexual harassment scandal continue to roil the state Capitol more than two weeks after 147 women released a

On Tuesday, the Los Angeles Daily News published an editorial that said the only sitting lawmaker known to have been formally rebuked for sexual harassment – Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, D-Los Angeles (pictured) – should resign.

“While Bocanegra has apologized for his conduct, we believe the best way for him to serve the public at this point is to resign from office,” the Daily News editorial concluded.

The Los Angeles Times story that revealed Bocanegra’s rebuke could also portend headaches for Democratic lawmakers who knew about the incident that got him in trouble but who either kept quiet or actively helped Bocanegra’s career. The story was based on an interview with his victim, Elise Flynn Gyore, who provided a copy of the Assembly Rules Committee letter rebuking Bocanegra.

The incident that led to the complaint to the Rules Committee came at a 2009 Sacramento event in which Bocanegra – then the chief of staff for then-Assemblyman Felipe Fuentes, D-Los Angeles – allegedly reached down the blouse of Gyore, then a staffer for state Sen. Ron Calderon, D-Montebello. Bocanegra also acted in a way Gyore characterized as stalking.

A subsequent Sacramento Bee story detailed how Bocanegra’s rebuke didn’t get in the way of his political ascent. He was elected to the Assembly in 2012. Among those who helped him with donations or endorsements: then-Assemblyman Isadore Hall, D-Compton, who served on the Assembly Rules Committee while it reviewed the allegations against Bocanegra, and then-Sen. Calderon, whom Gyore said knew about what Bocanegra had done.

Hall went on to serve in the state Senate before losing a bid for Congress last year. In January, Hall was appointed by Gov. Jerry Brown to the California Agricultural Labor Relations Board, with an annual salary of $142,095. Hall, 45, is expected to seek elected office again in coming years.

Calderon was convicted in 2016 of federal corruption charges and is now serving a 42-month prison sentence.

Gyore is now chief of staff for Sen. Richard Roth, D-Riverside, who has been among the leading advocates in the Legislature for holding lawmakers accountable for their bad behavior.

Villaraigosa, Newsom may face questions over their past scandals

The Bocanegra case has many insiders wondering what California politician might next come under fire for inappropriate behavior or worse. But the increasing focus on politicians’ treatment of and attitudes about women could eventually lead to tough questions for the two Democratic frontrunners to replace termed-out Gov. Brown in the 2018 election.

In 2007, when he was mayor of Los Angeles, Antonio Villaraigosa revealed that he was involved romantically with a much-younger TV journalist, leading to his marriage’s collapse and his divorce in 2010.

The Los Angeles Times reported then that Telemundo reporter-anchor Mirthala Salinas, 35, apparently began her affair with Villaraigosa, 54, while she was covering the mayor for her network.

Villaraigosa got remarried in 2016.

Also in 2007, then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom was involved in a messy office scandal. Alex Tourk, Newsom’s campaign manager and former deputy chief of staff, abruptly resigned “after confronting the mayor about an affair Newsom had with his wife while she worked in the mayor’s office,” the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Ruby Rippey-Tourk had been Newsom’s appointments secretary for two years.

The New York Times gave national coverage to what it described as “a fast-unfolding scandal with all the sex and betrayal of a tawdry novel,” noting that the affair came while Newsom was “in the throes of a divorce.” But after Newsom repeatedly apologized, his political career continued, seemingly unaffected.

In 2008, he got married for a second time.

But down the ballot, 10 things stood out.

• Nearly 50,000 people voted for Roger Hernandez, a termed-out Democratic assemblyman from West Covina who had been running for Congress until he suspended his campaign after he was placed under a domestic violence restraining order and was stripped of his committee assignments.

• Congressman Darrell Issa seems to have won re-election. Although it’s still close and the Los Angeles Times had not yet called the race, Issa maintains a nearly 4,000-vote lead over Democrat Doug Applegate. This isn’t noteworthy because Issa was vulnerable and squeaked out a win. It was noteworthy because Issa, the richest member of Congress, wasn’t seen as vulnerable. The Vista Republican, in his 15th year in Congress, has been one of the most high-profile Republicans over the last few years as a constant thorn in the side of the Obama administration. But as national money started flowing to Applegate and an endorsement of Donald Trump appeared to be weighing Issa down, the race tightened.  

• As long as these results hold, Rep. Mike Honda, D-San Jose, will be the only incumbent in California’s 53-person congressional delegation to lose. Fellow Democrat, Ro Khanna of Fremont, finished what he started in 2014, when he first challenged Honda.

• A reminder that California is not as uniformly progressive as it often seems: Voters upheld the death penalty as the maximum sentence for murder. Even more surprising is that a measure to speed up death penalty appeals is clinging to a two-point lead in the returns.

• Republicans appear to have held their seats in the state Senate, beating back a Democratic supermajority. Everything hinges on a Southern California district that extends from Cypress to West Covina to Chino Hills, where Republican Ling Ling Chang, a sitting assemblywoman, is holding an almost two-point lead over Democrat Josh Newman. 

• But in the Assembly, Republicans lost three seats, dipping below one-third of the chamber. In the Los Angeles South Bay, David Hadley was knocked out by former Democratic Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi. In Orange County, Young Kim trails former Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva. And in the Inland Empire, Eric Linder is losing to Sabrina Cervantes.

• While no Senate incumbents of either party were defeated, five incumbent Assembly members either lost or trail. That includes the Republicans, Linder, Kim and Quirk-Silva, along with two Democrats who lost intraparty challenges. Cheryl Brown, the Inland Empire incumbent, lost to Eloise Reyes in a proxy war between environmentalists and unions that opposed Brown and Big Oil and charter schools that supported her. In the San Fernando Valley, Patty Lopez was ousted after the Democratic Party endorsed her challenger, former Democratic Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, who also had major support from outside business interests.

• Orange County, the traditional Republican stronghold, voted for Hillary Clinton for president. According to The Orange County Register, the county hadn’t supported a Democrat for president since the Great Depression. That result reflects a consistent slide in Republican registration in the county, which has persisted for decades.

• Speaking of Orange County, Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez lost her home county in the U.S. Senate race by 9.6 points. Sanchez has represented Orange County in Congress since she was first elected in 1996.

• And speaking of the U.S. Senate race, more that 1.1 million people sat it out. The race made headlines after the June primary, when no Republicans advanced to the general election — a byproduct of the state’s relatively new primary system where the top two candidates advance regardless of party. Sanchez lost to Attorney General Kamala Harris, a fellow Democrat.

Well, maybe not always, as is the case with Assemblywoman Patty Lopez, a pariah in the Democratic Party since she knocked off Raul Bocanegra, a popular incumbent, two years ago. 

Up for re-election in 2016, the party didn’t endorse Lopez (rare for an incumbent absent a scandal), outside interests want nothing to do with her and her Assembly kin are almost nowhere to be found.

But she expects to be back in her office next year, stronger than ever. To her, nothing could be more challenging than her first term.

“I survived,” the thick-accented San Fernando Democrat said with a laugh in a recent interview with CalWatchdog, reflecting on her first term in office. “Believe it or not, the first year was hard.” 

Plagued by inexperience, a lack of connection with many of her colleagues and the loss of her mother, Lopez said the first term was hard just to stay focused. Distractions aside, she managed to author 38 pieces of legislation, 14 of which became law, including one to help conserve Monarch Butterflies and another allowing the use of clotheslines for many residents who want, or need, to save on utility costs.

Her biggest split with the party has been her opposition to high-speed rail, which is set to run straight through her district.

The clothesline bill was emblematic of her primary focus: Constituent services. Lopez reportedly doesn’t spend much time socializing in Sacramento. Instead, she’s at between six to eight community events a week in he district. She keeps only two staffers and an intern in Sacramento, while the large majority of her staff, a dozen or so, stay in her district office where she resolved 312 constituent cases since being in office. 

While all that won’t make her the subject of Robert Caro’s next book, it may be enough for re-election. According to Lopez, it was Bocanegra’s activities outside his district that made voters in his district seek new representation. Instead of campaigning for his own re-election, Bocanegra was on the trail with other candidates trying to help them (media reports suggest Bocanegra was aiming for speaker). 

“I feel like after two years if voters don’t know who you are, they don’t recognize your name, obviously you didn’t spend enough time in the district,” Lopez said of Bocanegra, who was also a one-term Assembly member. “If after two years, if people don’t feel you do anything, they’ll vote for the next person in line.”

Not a politician

Lopez is far from the typical politician. Born in Michoacán, Mexico, Lopez moved to the United States when she was 12. Her mother reportedly didn’t trust the government, so Lopez was not enrolled in school. It wasn’t until her twenties that she got a GED and took English classes. 

Lopez became a citizen in 2000. And while she had a few odd jobs, like working on an assembly line building home security alarms, her experience as an education activist ultimately led her to public office. 

Fearing budget cuts would threaten adult education, and believing Bocanegra, her assemblyman, wasn’t doing anything about it, she challenged him with little money and little support and ended up winning by fewer than 500 votes.

And that’s the short story of how Patty Lopez, who was once adoringly referred to as “The Mexican mom in office,” came to Sacramento.

Bad at fundraising

When a candidate from any party first considers running for office, his or her ability to raise money is the litmus test of viability. The most common criticism of Lopez is that she’s an abysmal fundraiser, something Bocanegra is not.

“Sometimes, they don’t see me as a really strong candidate, because I don’t raise a lot of money,” Lopez said. “I deliver service (to constituents) and I align with the party on major things.”

Democratic Party endorsements are made at the local level, where Bocanegra received 94 percent of the delegate votes in the district. It’s unclear if the party’s concerns were due to Lopez’s viability issue or loyalty to Bocanegra. But according to a party spokesman, the endorsement of a Democratic challenger of a Democratic incumbent is just politics as usual. 

“This race is getting attention because of the top two dynamic but contested Democratic races are nothing new,” said Michael Soller, a spokesman for the California Democratic Party. Soller did provide other examples of the party not backing an incumbent.

“The Democratic Party did her wrong,” said a high-level, Democratic staffer in the Legislature, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “She is everything they are supposed to stand for and they kicked her to the curb — very sad.”

Leadership

Campaign finance records show that a dozen or so legislators have contributed to Lopez, and she said that Assemblymembers Cristina Garcia of Bell Gardens, Susan Talamantes Eggman of Stockton and Adrin Nazarian of Sherman Oaks have offered help on the campaign trail. 

But while both Speaker Anthony Rendon and Majority Floor Leader Ian Calderon endorsed her and contributed to her campaign, neither has attended events with her in the district. 

“This race is a Dem on Dem race where both candidates are good votes for working families and immigrant communities and both have served in the Assembly,” said Rendon spokesman Bill Wong. “That said, the fact that (Rendon) maxed out to her and publicly endorsed her speaks for itself.”  

There’s a difference between endorsing with a max contribution, which doesn’t buy much in the expensive world of campaigns, and going on the trail with a candidate to help raise support and money. And while leadership may have given tepid support, there’s just not a big push to help Lopez stay in office — particularly in an election cycle where the president of the United States endorsed four Democratic legislative candidates.

“I cant remember the Caucus ever leaving an incumbent unprotected like this unless there was a scandal of some sorts,” said Steve Maviglio, a prominent Democratic strategist. “Then again, Bocanegra was a former member.” 

Money talks

Political parties can contribute unlimited amounts to candidates and outside groups can spend unlimited amounts in independent expenditures — so the lack of both is significant. 

Rendon can usually direct party funds to incumbents, except party rules prohibit funds from going to candidates who aren’t endorsed by the party. And if money talks, then the outside groups have said loud and clear they want Bocanegra.

According to a MapLight analysis of campaign finance records, outside groups of mostly business interests have spent $350,000 against Lopez and $1.4 million in support of Bocanegra, while only a pro-women’s group spent on her behalf — just $10,000. And this is where fundraising matters most: Lopez has raised only $133,000 this cycle to Bocanegra’s $1.07 million — money that goes to advertising and professional staff.

Lopez, for her part, doesn’t think fundraising is the measure by which she should be judged though. She’s been a good Democrat and a help to her constituents and she thinks that should be enough.

And voters will soon decide if that’s true. 

Women make up more than half of California’s population, but only about one-fourth of the Legislature. 

And in November, that’s unlikely to change too much, according to a CalWatchdog analysis.

While an October surprise, outside factor or just particularly good or bad campaigning could change the course of race that appears to be a sure thing, primary results, incumbency advantages, voting trends and partisan makeup of a district can be useful in making educated guesses.

Currently, out of 120 legislative seats, there are 30 held by women — an additional seat is vacant now, having been held by the late Republican Senator Sharon Runner, who died unexpectedly earlier this month.   

There could be as many as 49 women in the Legislature next year, but it is likely that they’ll hover around the same amount as this year.  

In the Senate, women could have as few as five seats and as many as 13 — realistically, the number will likely be around eight to 10 seats. In the Assembly, women will occupy at least six seats and as many as 36, but that number will likely be somewhere between 15 and 24 seats. 

What we know for sure

Republican Senators Jean Fuller, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates and Democratic Senators Connie Leyva and Holly Mitchell are not up for re-election and will definitely be returning next year, as the Senate is on staggered four-year terms.

In the Assembly, every seat is up for re-election every two years, although five seats will definitely stay occupied by women — either because the incumbent is running unopposed (or facing a write-in challenge) or because the incumbents are facing another woman in the general election. Those five seats are held by: Democrats Cheryl Brown, Cristina Garcia and Autumn Burke and Republicans Catharine Baker and Young Kim. 

Because of either term limits or the seat being vacated by an incumbent running for another position, eight seats held by women will be replaced by men as no women advanced from the primary in these races. Those are the seats currently held by Republican Assemblywomen Beth Gaines, Kristin Olsen, Shannon Grove and Ling Ling Chang and one Democrat, Toni Atkins, as well as two Democratic senators, Carol Liu and Fran Pavley.

Runner’s Senate seat will also be filled by a man.

There is only one definite pickup: An Assembly seat held by termed-out Democrat Luis Alejo.  

Seats where we likely know the outcome

Again, nothing is guaranteed until the final votes are tallied, but these nine seats are safe bets.

While the Assembly seat of Speaker Emeritus Toni Atkins will be filled with a man as mentioned above, the San Diego Democrat is expected to offset that loss by filling a seat being vacated by a man in the Senate. 

Because of the advantages of incumbency, district voting trends and favorable lopsided primary results, these eight female legislators will likely keep their seats: In the Senate, it’s Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson (the current chair of the Women’s Caucus) and Cathleen Galgiani, and in the Assembly, it’s Democrats Jacqui Irwin, Susan Talamantes Eggman, Shirley Weber and Lorena Gonzalez with Republicans Melissa Melendez and Marie Waldron.

One female incumbent in trouble 

The only incumbent woman who is on very shaky ground is Democrat Patty Lopez. Lopez finished second in the primary, down 17.2 percentage points to the man she surprisingly knocked out of office in 2014, fellow Democrat Raul Bocanegra.

Best pickup chances

In the race to replace Sen. Mark Leno, who is termed out, Jane Kim led the primary against fellow Democrat Scott Wiener 45.3 percent to 45.1 percent. It’s obviously a close race, but it is a good chance for a woman to pick up a seat.

In a less competitive race, Democrat Cecilia Aguiar-Curry finished first in the primary against Republican Charlie Schaupp in a heavily Democratic district to replace Assemblyman Bill Dodd, D-Napa, who is running for Senate.

Democrat S. Monique Limón finished the primary with a formidable lead against Edward Fuller, who claims no party preference, 65.9 percent t0 34.1 percent. If elected, Limón would replace Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams. 

In the race to replace termed-out, Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez — who is currently under a three-year restraining order for alleged domestic violence — Blanca Rubio appears likely to win. Rubio, a Democrat, will face Republican Cory Ellenson in a heavily-Democratic district.

Two wildcards 

Two seats where women have decent chances to pickup seats, although the odds are slightly tipped against them, are the Senate races to replace termed-out Republican Bob Huff and incumbent Democrat Jim Beall.

Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang saw an opening in the Huff race and decided to vacate her Assembly seat after only one term. However, she finished the primary with only 44 percent, with two Democrats splitting the 56 percent majority. 

Beall is being challenged by Assemblywoman Nora Campos, a fellow Democrat. Beall narrowly missed a majority in the primary, topping Campos by 22.5 percentage points. Campos is considered the business-friendly candidate, so she’ll have to use that to draw upon Republican support to top Beall.

Toss ups

There are approximately 11 races that look as though they could go either way, with four being vacated by termed-out women. Another four are against male incumbents: Republicans Marc Steinorth, Eric Linder and Travis Allen and Democrat Miguel Santiago.  

Looking for October surprises

And there are 11 other races where women are challenging male incumbents, although these races do not appear as though they’ll be too competitive. 

Patty Lopez

Time doesn’t heal all intra-party wounds.

Last November, unknown community activist Patty Lopez defeated a fellow Democrat, incumbent Raul Bocanegra, in the 39th Assembly District. It is — without a doubt — the biggest upset in the history of California’s Top Two primary, which was enacted by voters with Proposition 14 in 2010.

Political professionals were left stumped at how Lopez won. In the June 3 primary, Bocanegra beat Lopez by nearly 40 points, the largest margin of any Democrat vs. Democrat primary in Los Angeles County. In advance of the November election, Lopez didn’t report any expenditures or obtain a candidate statement.

It hasn’t taken long for those unresolved questions to turn into vicious smears and an organized effort to unseat Lopez.

Recall?

Before the first-term state lawmaker could introduce her first bill, angry self-described “progressives” were talking of a recall attempt.

“We cannot wait two years down the line for a chance to rectify the results of misplaced trust and uninformed voting,” Rosemary Jenkins, a Democratic activist and chair of the Northeast Valley Green Alliance, wrote at CityWatchLA.com. “By and large, worthy office-holders must pay their dues first, gaining experience through working their way up the ladder. She has not done that.”

Jenkins even branded Lopez as “functionally illiterate. … As a Progressive, I firmly believe in diversity with all its ramifications, but to be an effective legislator at any level requires fluency in the English language and the ability to communicate well.” (boldface in original)

Jenkins offered as grounds for a recall: Lopez has failed to use her taxpayer-funded office to support patronage jobs for Democratic activists.

“Speaking of the Democratic Party, she, as an elected Democrat, is obligated to hire Democrats as her staff members,” Jenkins wrote. “She has been in violation of this regulation.”

Of course, no such regulation exists and likely would be illegal. Although it’s rare, numerous California politicians have hired staffers of the opposing political party for key positions. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger famously hired Democrat Susan Kennedy as his chief of staff. In 2013, then-State Sen. Lou Correa, a Democrat, hired longtime GOP staffer Damon Conklin to serve as a top adviser and lead his communications outreach.

Lopez’s chief of staff is a longtime Democratic staff member, Lourdes Jimenez, who recently worked for Sen. Ben Hueso, D-San Diego. What’s Lopez’s big staffing crime? She hired Ricardo Benitez, a Republican, to a field representative position.

“What Sacramento is finding out about the newly elected Assemblywoman is troubling, to say the least,” Mario Solis-Marich, another blogger angry with Benitez’s hiring, wrote at LAProggressive.com.

‘Smear campaign’

The pettiness and persistence of the attacks has some constituents questioning whether it’s part of a larger smear campaign.

“It appears that a very well-orchestrated smear campaign has been launched against Assemblywoman Patty Lopez disparaging her ethnic origins, gender, and abilities, while insulting the intelligence of the voters of the 39th Assembly District,” Michael Moncreiff, who lives in Rancho Tujunga, recently wrote at CityWatchLA.com. “All these disrespectful remarks are being callously disseminated one month after the Assemblywoman took office and well before she has commenced her legislative work.”

As recently as mid-January, an attack website accused Lopez of “deceiving voters.” However, the website has recently been taken down and no archived copy was available.

The attacks, to a degree, have galvanized support for Lopez.

“She listens to us and is working for our communities instead of the pocketbooks of a few,” Nina Royal, who is active in several community organizations in the district, recently posted on Facebook. “I am confident that she will work hard to make a difference in our District.”

Another community activist in the largely Spanish-speaking district told Hoy Los Angeles, “Ella representa lo que la gente quiere, es la voz de ellos.” In English, “She represents what people want, (she) is the voice of them.”

‘I will make sure that everyone’s voice is heard’

Lopez, who declined CalWatchdog.com’s request for comment on the recall attempt, has said she’s interested in representing all people in her district, not just politically connected party loyalists.

“I am no different from many of my colleagues in the Assembly because I ran for this office to improve the lives of people in my district and in California,” Lopez recently wrote. “And as the new representative of the 39th District in the California Assembly, I will make sure that everyone’s voice is heard.”

She added, “I am still learning how everything works in the Legislature.”

For 26 days, Lancaster council member Ron Smith, a Republican, was an Assemblyman-elect, that is until the very last votes were counted in Los Angeles County on Sunday and by 145 votes Smith lost his seat to Democrat Steve Fox.  Smith came out of election night several thousand votes ahead but a huge glut of late provisional ballots cost him the seat.  “There is a political group that has learned how to manipulate the election by playing with provisionals,” huffed Smith.  He’s right; it is called the voters. …

Smith raised and spent about $285,000 on his campaign, but all of that was in the primary.  Once he was the only Republican in the runoff he coasted, assured of election in this “safe” Republican district.  And his opponent Fox, raised only $20,000 and loaned himself another $40,000 – he had no organized state Democratic support.

So what’s the problem? Well, over the summer local Democrats put on a big registration drive in this middle class district, as they did across the state and using the new online registration signed up a whole lot of new voters.

Wrong spot on ballot — and little active campaigning

In 2014, the Republican candidate — Palmdale Councilman Tom Lackey — trounced Fox by more than 20 percent despite continuing gains in Latino and Democratic registration. All he needed to do was run a competent campaign.

There was a heavy California favorite who lost in similar circumstances in 2014, however. This time it was a Democrat — was Raul Bocanegra, an up-and-coming Assembly member who was seen as a future party leader. The LA Weekly has the key details.

It’s easily the political upset of the year in California — Bocanegra, by all accounts California’s Assembly Speaker-in-waiting, every inch the Democratic Party establishment figure, upset by Patty Lopez, a mild-mannered LAUSD employee and political nobody born in Michoacan, Mexico, for whom English is a second language (she speaks with a heavy accent). 

Bocanegra finished nearly 40 points ahead of fellow Democrat Lopez in the June 3 primary. That’s the typical mauling of anyone who runs a campaign from their kitchen table.

He was so certain of his victory that Bocanegra spent only $15,000 on campaign literature promoting himself to voters during the runoff against her — a pittance in L.A. elections. …

Lopez, meanwhile, didn’t file a single campaign finance report until after the election, and it’s unclear how much money, if any, she raised and spent to get her name out to East Valley voters in the district that takes in gentrifying North Hollywood, working-class Pacoima, middle class Mission Hills and horsey Sunland-Tujunga.

So how did Bocanegra lose? The LA Weekly points out that the ballot in his district conveyed the impression that Lopez was the favored Democrat:

Notice how the first five races on the page are all Democrat vs. Republican races, and they all have the Democratic candidate listed above the Republican.

This is a bizarre coincidence – candidate ballot order is assigned randomly (at least it’s supposed to be) and Democrats do not get to be automatically listed above Republicans.

Now, look at the Bocanegra vs. Lopez race, at the bottom of the above page. It’s one of the few Democrat vs. Democrat races on the ballot, under California’s new voting system in which the top-two winners from the primary, even if they’re from the same party, face off in the fall.

And who’s listed in the first position in the race for AD 39, the position which up to this point on the ballot was consistently but inadvertently given to the Democrat, with the Republican continually listed in second position?

Patty Lopez is in the first spot.

This suggests that a good number of voters in the East Valley who were voting straight Democrat — and not really aware of specific candidates — may have automatically filled in the first bubble, for Lopez.

’80 percent of life is showing up’

There’s no doubt that this ballot prompted many voters to back Lopez. But if Bocanegra had campaigned and sent mailers and run even a semblance of a campaign, the word would have gotten out to enough voters that he was the incumbent — and one held in good regard by other local officials and Latino groups.

Instead, like Ron Smith before him, Bocanegra assumed his election was guaranteed, and lost to someone who will lose in 2016 and later be most remembered as the answer to a trivia question.

Morale of the story: As Woody Allen reputedly said, 80 percent of life is showing up. In the general election, Smith and Bocanegra didn’t bother.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!