On Friday, CalWatchdog.com suggested Rob McCoy, the Republican candidate in the contested 44th Assembly District, was being written off by the Assembly Republican Caucus. That was supported by grumblings from GOP sources and campaign finance reports showing the Ventura County pastor at a substantial financial disadvantage to Democrat Jacqui Irwin, a Thousand Oaks councilwoman and two-time mayor.

But political campaigns can change in an instant — or however long it takes to complete a wire transfer.

Shortly after our story posted Friday, McCoy’s campaign to succeed Assemblyman Jeff Gorell, R-Camarillo, received a “Herculean” campaign haul: $224,500 in contributions. The overwhelming majority of those funds, $200,000, came from three Republican central committees in Riverside, San Bernardino and San Luis Obispo counties.

In addition to party funds, McCoy received contributions from Assemblyman Brian Dahle, R-Redding, the New Majority CA and even a $2,000 check from Kevin Sorbo, the star of the 1990s television hit, “Hercules.”

Funding to remain competitive

The largest contribution to McCoy’s campaign on Friday was a $132,000 check from the Republican Central Committee of San Luis Obispo. The party committee has acted as one of the primary financial vehicles for state Republicans in the past few campaign cycles. The committee’s largest contributor is GOP super-donor Charles Munger Jr. Recently the party has accepted checks from Farmers Group, Motor Vehicle Software Corporation, Anthem Blue Cross and the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation.

Other contributions made to McCoy on Friday included $34,000 checks from the San Bernardino County Republican Party and the Riverside County Republican Central Committee.

Since Oct.  1, McCoy’s campaign has reported $293,975 in campaign contributions. That means in the first four days of October, McCoy raised more money than during the entire primary campaign. According to state campaign finance records, McCoy raised $277,762 through the first six months of the year.

McCoy grateful to Olsen-led GOP Caucus

The big money moves are an indication the Assembly Republican Caucus is committed to holding the Ventura County-based seat.

McCoy told CalWatchdog.com on Friday he’s grateful to have the full backing of Asssemblywoman Kristin Olsen, the Modesto Republican slated to take over as leader of the caucus later this year.

“Running for this office as a conservative, Kristin Olsen has been a tremendous help,” McCoy said. He described Olsen as “one of the best” in Sacramento. “I’m thankful for her support. She’s been nothing but helpful.”

That help included a $4,100 max-out contribution over the summer, which has yet to appear on campaign finance disclosure reports. Olsen’s contribution didn’t show up in the state’s campaign finance database because it occurred in the five-week window between the semi-annual campaign report and the 24-hour election cycle reporting period, which began Aug. 6.

Today, Oct. 6, marks the deadline to file campaign reports for contributions received from July 1 to Sept. 30.

Irwin’s $1.3 million campaign bankrolled by Democratic Party, unions

McCoy’s recent cash infusion couldn’t come soon enough and is needed to combat the $1.3 million campaign of his Democratic rival, Irwin.

According to her pre-election report filed late Sunday night, she received $447,990 in campaign contributions from Democratic Party committees since Jan. 1. Much of those funds can be traced back to the state’s powerful labor unions.

As CalWatchdog.com previously reported, the Democratic State Central Committee of CA received a $1.59 million cash infusion on Sept. 19. On just that day, state Democrats cashed $1.15 million from the unions, representing teachers, firefighters, engineers and nurses.

In addition to money transferred through the state party, labor unions have contributed tens of thousands of dollars directly to Irwin’s campaign account. Irwin’s campaign disclosure form reads like a “who’s who” of big union players, including max-out contributions from AFSCME, the California School Employees Association, the California State Council of Laborer’s PAC, the California Teachers Association, Los Angeles County Firefighters Local 1014, SEIU United Long Term Care Workers Local 6434, Service Employees International Union Local 1000, the State Building & Construction Trades Council of California and the United Nurses Association

Such massive support from public employee unions indicates Irwin is likely to fall in lock step with liberal Democrats on pension reform, tax increases and budget cuts.

“She has demonstrated leadership in protecting pensions, investing in law enforcement and concern for working people, while other cities were implementing drastic cuts,” longtime Democratic activist and union leader Hank Lacayo said in his endorsement of Irwin earlier this year. “She has proven that we can trust her to fight for seniors, children and working families as a member of the California Assembly.”

With the election just four weeks away, the McCoy-Irwin battle has become a bellwether on the future of the California Legislature and the GOP desire to break the Democrats’ Assembly supermajority.

“I am absolutely confident that I’ll be elected speaker,” Brulte told the San Jose Mercury News in Dec. 1994, shortly after the GOP claimed a majority in the lower house in the November election. “Whether it takes a day or a week or a month, we’ll just keep coming back until we elect a speaker.”

But Brulte was never to be speaker. Democratic Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, perhaps the only California political strategist more skilled than Brulte, maneuvered to retain the speakership.

“Brulte is like Moses,” consultant Harvey Englander said at the time, according to Dick Rosengarten’s CalPeek. “He leads his people to the promised land, but won’t be allowed to enter.”

Assembly Republican Leader-Elect Kristin Olsen

The stakes are much lower, but Kristin Olsen might be heading down the same path as “Speaker” Brulte.

In July, Assembly Republicans selected Olsen as their next leader — but delayed the transition until after the November election. In the interim, she’s been referring to herself as leader. “Assembly Republican Leader-Elect Kristin Olsen was first elected to the California State Assembly in November 2010 and overwhelmingly re-elected to her second term in November 2012,” the first sentence of the Modesto Republican’s biography reads.

There’s just one problem: The position doesn’t exist.

Non-existent position: Leader-Elect

Scan the Standing Rules of the State Assembly and you won’t find the position of “Assembly Republican Leader-Elect” anywhere. (Minority Floor Leader only rates seven mentions.)

From the Standing Rules of the California State Assembly:

“Organization of Party Caucuses

“13.1. Within two days after the general election held in November of each even-numbered year, the caucus of the political party having the greatest number of Members in the Assembly, and the caucus of the political party having the second greatest number of Members, each shall meet for the purpose of selecting their officers for the next regular session. The rules and procedures of each caucus shall be determined by that caucus, but may not be inconsistent with these rules.”

Only the speaker of the Assembly is presumed to retain office and act as “the senior member elect” for the body’s organizational session.

There’s a good reason “leader-elect” positions don’t exist. A minority leader for the next session can’t be chosen by a previous Legislature. Moreover, the member could lose reelection — however unlikely — or leave office for some other reason before the next Legislature convenes.

Why this matters: Olsen can’t get comfortable

Why does any of this matter? Isn’t Olsen’s coronation in November a mere formality?

First, it’s a reminder that Olsen can’t get too comfortable. Come November, Olsen’s legislative class could be the smallest group within the Assembly GOP Caucus. In 2012, as reported by CalWatchdog.com, Assembly GOP Leader Connie Conway skipped town for a special interest junket to Maui, while Republicans lost a swing seat during the late absentee and provisional ballot phase. Olsen and the GOP Caucus are now desperately working to reclaim the 36th Assembly seat from Assemblyman Steve Fox, D-Palmdale.

Olsen’s unlikely to repeat that mistake. To her credit, the well-liked lawmaker has been aggressively campaigning on behalf of her caucus, much like Brulte did in 1994. This month, she released a Spanish-language radio ad on the state’s water crisis. And she’s refined her pitch to California voters who’ve long given up on the GOP.

“We need to unify our party and all Californians around core principles that will re-energize our state,” Olsen said last month, in a sit-down with CalWatchdog.com Editor-in-Chief Brian Calle.

Assembly District 44: Potential Caucus Disruption

But for all of her hard work, the Assembly GOP Caucus has basically written off an important target in Ventura County.

In July, VC Star reporter Timm Herdt first theorized Olsen’s selection as “leader-elect” was a bad sign for Pastor Rob McCoy, a well-liked community leader running in the 44th Assembly District against moderate Democrat Jacqui Irwin, a Thousand Oaks councilwoman and two-time mayor:

“[Olsen’s selection as leader] could bode ill for 44th Assembly District Rob McCoy, who will no doubt be looking for as much financial assistance as he can get from Sacramento as he competes in that battleground district. But it remains to be seen whether a Conway-led leadership team will give the race a high priority.

“During the primary, Conway took the unusual step for a caucus leader of contributing funds to McCoy’s Republican opponent, businessman Mario de la Piedra. That suggests she may have had some doubts about McCoy’s viability as a general-election candidate. The fact that Conway is still going to call the shots on allocating election resources probably means that McCoy is going to have to persuade the outgoing leader that he can beat Democrat Jacqui Irwin with the help of Republican allies in Sacramento.”

Based on campaign reports, Herdt’s assessment is proving true. Olsen hasn’t given a penny to McCoy, who could use help if Republicans are to retain Assemblyman Jeff Gorell’s seat. According to AroundtheCapitol.com, Irwin has raised $823,887 since the June 30 report, compared to $375,441 for McCoy.

McCoy’s message resonates with McClintock country

In the past year, Democrats have posted sizable registration gains in the Ventura County-based 44th Assembly District. According to the Secretary of State’s 60-Day Voter Registration report, Democrats hold a 5 percentage-point advantage in voter registration.

However, the district’s registration figures gloss over the fiscally conservative tendencies of this area. For years, the district sent to Sacramento anti-tax icon Tom McClintock, now a U.S. congressman.

McCoy has tapped into that fiscally conservative soul of the district by proposing to eliminate “boondoggles like high-speed rail.” While Irwin’s been up on the air with a positive spot, McCoy’s been working the ground with community coffees and precinct walks. He’s also made an issue of new taxes. According to the Los Angeles Register, McCoy “rules out the new taxes Ms. Irwin proposes, declaring that Californians are ‘taxed enough already.'”

In June, the two Republican candidates combined for 55 percent of the vote. The November election is expected to be a similarly low turnout affair. That gives the Calvary Chapel minister a chance and brings us back to “Assembly Republican Leader-Elect” Olsen.

If McCoy pulls an upset in November, in the process he could upset Olsen’s caucus.