It’s what Republicans fear and Democrats embrace: How the controversial presumptive nomination of Donald Trump as the GOP’s presidential candidate will affect races further down the ballot.

Democrats are hoping to tie Trump around the necks of Republican candidates throughout the state, particularly among Latino voters who have so far largely rejected Trump in polling — and the ads are just beginning. 

Democratic PACs announced one such ad yesterday for a coastal congressional race, while another ad has been floating around online for an Assembly seat in Los Angeles County. 

Much of Trump’s strength is derived from his “outsider” status — a strong personality untainted by Washington. He’s mastered the art of winning headlines by making brash statements often seen as anti-immigrant and misogynistic. 

But it’s those outlandish comments that may make it hard to paint a fellow member of the GOP with the same brush, absent an endorsement, which neither of the two attacked candidates have done. 

“The problem for them is Trump is not transferable that way,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who specializes in Latino issues. “No one believes someone is a Trump Republican. Trump’s whole rise is that he’s not a typical Republican nor a typical politician. Very little evidence to suggest this will work.”

Ads

The House Majority PAC and CHC BOLD PAC are spending almost $300,000 in an ad campaign attacking Republican Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian as a Trump-like, anti-immigrant demagogue.

The ad supports Democrat Salud Carbajal. Both men are running to replace the retiring Democratic Congresswoman Lois Capps in a district that runs from Santa Barbara to north of Morro Bay. 

The district is more than one-third Latino, but has a close partisan split — Democrats have 39.79 percent of registered voters to Republicans’ 33.65 percent, with 22.87 percent declining to state. 

In Los Angeles County’s South Bay, former Democratic Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi is trying attacks like www.hadleytrump.com against the man who knocked him out of the Legislature in 2014, Republican David Hadley. Slightly different than the Achadjian ad, Muratsuchi is attacking Hadley for not denouncing Trump.

Hadley won by only 1 percent of the vote in the 21-percent Latino district. Democrats have nearly an 8 percent voter registration advantage, with 22.74 percent declining to state a preference. 

“These ads are exactly what Trump exposes Republicans to in swing districts,” said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, who launched a campaign to stop a Trump nomination earlier this year. “Hadley’s answer is savvy though. I’m not convinced there’s a huge liability for ‘refusing to denounce’ him in general. But Trump will surely get trounced in (Hadley’s) district.”

Polling

A Field Poll last month showed 83 percent of Latino voters in the state had an unfavorable view of Trump, with even 69 percent of white voters having an unfavorable view (which is the most favorable of all the ethnicities).

And tying a candidate to an unpopular figure is a successful technique, to the extent that it can drive voter turnout. In 1996, President Bill Clinton tied his Republican challenger, Sen. Bob Dole, to former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. The Trump connection will be successful to the extent that it can drive voter turnout. 

“When it comes to motivating Hispanic turnout, Trump is the greatest gift that Democrats could want,” said John J. Pitney, Jr., a Roy P. Crocker professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.

The Ohio governor represents an important swing state. As a member of Congress, he chaired the House Budget Committee, where he was considered the architect of the deal that balanced the federal budget. And he was instrumental in the major welfare reform legislation of the 1990s.

He shies away from talking too much about social issues, the Republicans’ Achilles Heel. He even polls well in the general — the only Republican topping Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. 

Yet, he’s struggled to matter in the race. His only primary victory so far has been his home state and he has relatively few delegates. In fact, he still hasn’t surpassed Marco Rubio’s delegate count, even though the Florida Senator has been out of the race since mid March.

However, recent polling in California, where 172 delegates are up for grabs, shows Kasich with 20 percent of support (just behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz, but way behind business tycoon Donald Trump). The overall goal, with an outright win out of reach, is to push the nomination to an open, national GOP convention this summer.

“The only adult in the room”

Assembly Republican Leader Chad Mayes offered the same praise that Kasich has drawn throughout the contest, that Kasich is “the only adult in the room.”

“Gov. Kasich is ready to be president on Day One,” Mayes said while introducing Kasich at the CAGOP convention Friday night. “He can unite the party and win the White House. Republicans, he is our best choice.”

Does he unite the party?

Electability matters to voters, but the supporters of every candidate believe their guy or gal is electable. 

Kasich’s biggest knock is his acceptance of the Medicaid expansion offered through Obamacare, which Republican governors refused largely rejected.

“‘Now, when you die and get to the meeting with St. Peter, he’s probably not going to ask you much about what you did about keeping government small,'” Kasich said to an Ohio legislator at the time who was making an anti-government expansion argument. “‘But he is going to ask you what you did for the poor. You better have a good answer.’ ”

However, that decision has haunted him, said Republican strategist Rob Stuzman, who is part of an effort to stop Trump from winning the nomination by trying to get either Kasich or Cruz over the top.

“The knock on him throughout the race are the things he’s down in Ohio in expanding the size government that have held him back from a lot of conservative support that he probably would have had earlier in his career,” Stutzman said. 

Heidi Leupp, from Hillsborough, said she supports Kasich because of both his executive and legislative experience. She sees a winner, someone who polls well against the likely Democratic nominee, but is also popular in his own state. 

“Although he’s an outsider now, he does know how Washington works,” Leupp said. 

In a contentious primary season that’s been dominated by “mud-slinging,” Kasich has stayed above the fray, which Leupp finds attractive. But, she concedes, that both limits the amount of media attention he receives and differs from the tone of much of the electorate. 

“He doesn’t call people names, he doesn’t get into the mud, and because of that, he might not get the media exposure the mud-slingers get,” Leupp said. “But for the thoughtful voter, who looks at issues and looks at experience and looks at electability — which might be the most important thing — he is the perfect candidate.”

Kasich

To reporters on Friday, Kasich admitted that “it isn’t working out right now,” but pointed to a recent string of second-place finishes as dramatic improvement. 

“I was invisible until about eight weeks ago,” Kasich said. He added he believed people ultimately want to be positive, unified and feel good about future. “That’s why I win in the general — it’s starting to resonate.”

Even when reporters tried to trip him up with questions on abortion, Kasich defended his pro-life position and record while saying “you have to respect people who don’t agree with you on this issue.”

“I don’t intend to spend a lot of time focusing on (social issues),” Kasich said. “I intend to talk about what I think is the greatest crisis we have today, which is the lack of economic growth.”