But down the ballot, 10 things stood out.

• Nearly 50,000 people voted for Roger Hernandez, a termed-out Democratic assemblyman from West Covina who had been running for Congress until he suspended his campaign after he was placed under a domestic violence restraining order and was stripped of his committee assignments.

• Congressman Darrell Issa seems to have won re-election. Although it’s still close and the Los Angeles Times had not yet called the race, Issa maintains a nearly 4,000-vote lead over Democrat Doug Applegate. This isn’t noteworthy because Issa was vulnerable and squeaked out a win. It was noteworthy because Issa, the richest member of Congress, wasn’t seen as vulnerable. The Vista Republican, in his 15th year in Congress, has been one of the most high-profile Republicans over the last few years as a constant thorn in the side of the Obama administration. But as national money started flowing to Applegate and an endorsement of Donald Trump appeared to be weighing Issa down, the race tightened.  

• As long as these results hold, Rep. Mike Honda, D-San Jose, will be the only incumbent in California’s 53-person congressional delegation to lose. Fellow Democrat, Ro Khanna of Fremont, finished what he started in 2014, when he first challenged Honda.

• A reminder that California is not as uniformly progressive as it often seems: Voters upheld the death penalty as the maximum sentence for murder. Even more surprising is that a measure to speed up death penalty appeals is clinging to a two-point lead in the returns.

• Republicans appear to have held their seats in the state Senate, beating back a Democratic supermajority. Everything hinges on a Southern California district that extends from Cypress to West Covina to Chino Hills, where Republican Ling Ling Chang, a sitting assemblywoman, is holding an almost two-point lead over Democrat Josh Newman. 

• But in the Assembly, Republicans lost three seats, dipping below one-third of the chamber. In the Los Angeles South Bay, David Hadley was knocked out by former Democratic Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi. In Orange County, Young Kim trails former Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva. And in the Inland Empire, Eric Linder is losing to Sabrina Cervantes.

• While no Senate incumbents of either party were defeated, five incumbent Assembly members either lost or trail. That includes the Republicans, Linder, Kim and Quirk-Silva, along with two Democrats who lost intraparty challenges. Cheryl Brown, the Inland Empire incumbent, lost to Eloise Reyes in a proxy war between environmentalists and unions that opposed Brown and Big Oil and charter schools that supported her. In the San Fernando Valley, Patty Lopez was ousted after the Democratic Party endorsed her challenger, former Democratic Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra, who also had major support from outside business interests.

• Orange County, the traditional Republican stronghold, voted for Hillary Clinton for president. According to The Orange County Register, the county hadn’t supported a Democrat for president since the Great Depression. That result reflects a consistent slide in Republican registration in the county, which has persisted for decades.

• Speaking of Orange County, Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez lost her home county in the U.S. Senate race by 9.6 points. Sanchez has represented Orange County in Congress since she was first elected in 1996.

• And speaking of the U.S. Senate race, more that 1.1 million people sat it out. The race made headlines after the June primary, when no Republicans advanced to the general election — a byproduct of the state’s relatively new primary system where the top two candidates advance regardless of party. Sanchez lost to Attorney General Kamala Harris, a fellow Democrat.

While her ascendancy will need to be formalized with a vote of caucus members after November’s election, the vice chair, which Garcia is, has almost always become chair. The position already wields great power from its bully pulpit, but the bipartisan caucus appears set for a makeover after November sweeps in a large voting bloc of Democratic women to consolidate power in the Assembly.

Exactly how many women is unknown until the votes are counted. But a conservative estimate, based on a CalWatchdog analysis, suggests Democratic women will likely occupy between 16 and 28 seats in the Legislature next session, compared to 19 now.

The biggest gains will be in the Assembly where Democratic women could control at least 25 percent of the votes, with Garcia taking a lead role in the recruitment efforts.

In the four years since being elected — and after surviving a sharp learning curve having come from no background in elected office — the Bell Gardens Democrat rose in stature by focusing largely on ethics and women’s issues, with a knack for forcing to the forefront what she says are taboo topics.

Garcia made recent headlines for calling out a male colleague accused of domestic violence and for championing a bill redefining rape in the aftermath of the controversial sentencing of a former Stanford swimmer who sexually assaulted an unconscious woman and another eliminating sales tax on tampons and other feminine hygiene products. 

Both bills passed the Legislature and await a final decision from Gov. Jerry Brown. But to her, the legislative victories are just as important as the cultural changes. 

“I’ve been talking about periods the whole year,” Garcia told CalWatchdog in August over ice cream in Sacramento. “Why does it have to be taboo? It’s women’s health.”

Queenmaker

One of Garcia’s biggest goals with the women’s caucus outside of policy will be to build a bench of viable Democratic women candidates, particularly women of color, to compete for governor. There are only 11 women of color in the Legislature at the moment (several of whom are termed out in November), but many of the presumptive newcomers are Latinas.  

There’s no reason the first female governor in the state’s history would need to come through the Legislature, but it’s not a bad launch pad. Garcia didn’t dispel the notion she may make a run for governor at some point, but she said she’s satisfied doing what it takes to make a female Democratic governor possible. 

“If we don’t have a farm, we’re never going to climb,” Garcia said. “The men aren’t doing it for us, so we have to do it for ourselves.”

The 2018 gubernatorial field is quickly filling with men, so Garcia is looking to future elections to break the glass ceiling. Garcia knows gubernatorial candidates will want the women’s caucus’ support, but it would come with a price.

“I’ll help you now because I want something later,” Garcia said. “And that something is a woman governor after you.”

Background

In 2012, the unassuming math teacher was sent to Sacramento by voters in an underprivileged district in southeastern Los Angeles County — her only prior political experience was forming a community group in response to widespread corruption in Bell Gardens.

In her first primary, she bested a member of a political dynasty, then-former Assemblyman Tom Calderon. After defeating Calderon, she handily beat her Republican opponent in the general election and has run officially unopposed ever since.

Garcia is quick to condemn what she sees as immoral or unethical actions. A few months ago, she was one of the first legislators to demand the resignation of fellow Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez after allegations of domestic violence surfaced.

In 2013, she was the first sitting legislator to speak out and organize protests against Ron Calderon, a sitting senator, calling for his resignation after allegations surfaced the FBI suspected him of bribery. Calderon would later plead guilty to mail fraud, while his brother, Tom (Garcia’s former opponent), pleaded guilty to money laundering.

When the Kevin Sloat lobbying scandal ripped through the Legislature, Garcia responded with a sweeping ethics package. And currently waiting for Gov. Brown’s signature is a measure to overhaul the Central Basin Municipal Water District amid allegations of wrongdoing. 

But Garcia has had her own ethical faux pas. During her first run for the Assembly, she claimed she had a Ph.D. when she had only completed coursework. She has since admitted the mistake and will defend her dissertation in December.

Chair

Above all, Garcia’s time as chair will be about women and women’s issues, and she’ll have tremendous influence over the legislative focus of the caucus. Her recruitment efforts with the 2016 crop of women candidates will engender a base of loyalists. 

Garcia plans to personally push for early childhood education, but rather than having members support the caucus’ agenda, Garcia plans to have the caucus support members’ agendas — hence the emphasis on electing more Democratic women.

Naturally, Democratic women are more likely to stick together than a bipartisan group would. Plus, Republican women in the Legislature will drop from 12 seats to between five and eight.

Garcia understands power in the Legislature is held in numbers — the tighter and larger the voting bloc, the better — and wants to use it to enable women to accomplish their goals.

“We just have to prop each other up,” Garcia said. “Hold our votes together to push our stuff forward, and hold our votes together to hold things hostage when our stuff is not being taken seriously.”

A bill sponsored by Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, would have added three members to the South Coast Air Quality Management Board, which regulates air quality in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

And while that probably seems as dull as watching paint dry to nearly everyone who just read it, the measure had major implications for Republicans, local governments, business interests, environmentalists and residents of the broad district that has some of the most toxic air in the nation.

De Leon introduced the board-packing plan shortly after Republicans engineered a takeover of the board, swinging the focus from environmentalists to business interests. In December, the board disregarded SCAQMD staff recommendations and instead adopted rules on refineries backed by the oil industry, and in March it ousted the the longtime director who had been seen as anti-business.  

Representatives to the board are local city council members and county supervisors, appointed locally. De Leon’s bill would have added three seats to the 13-member board, appointed by the the Senate Rules Committee (which de Leon chairs), the Assembly speaker and the governor.

During floor debate, proponents argued that the measure was about adding diversity to the almost all-white board that had no Latinos, which defies the demographics of the heavily-Latino region. 

“Needless to say, I’m disappointed,” de Leon told CalWatchdog on Thursday. “Any time people of color are excluded from decision-making processes directly tied to their health and wellbeing, fundamental change is needed. This is a textbook example of institutional racism.”

De Leon added that Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, a Republican who also sits on the SCAQMD board, is termed-out and will soon be replaced by “someone far more progressive on the matter,” likely shifting the balance of power back to the environmentalists. 

However, of the current board’s ethnic composition, and the persistent lack of diversity, belies the fact that it’s largely been in Democratic, or environmentalist, control for years. De Leon did not say whether he’d reintroduce similar measures in the future.

Local control

Many opponents of the measure argued that the bill was a power grab by state policy makers at the expense of local control. And the large bloc of Democrats who either voted no or abstained suggest that the matter is not purely partisan.

“State versus local, that’s what this is about,” said Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist who helped devise the SDAQMD takeover. “It happened to be Republicans, but it was a state/local fight.”

But it was still a big win for Republicans, who are steadily slipping in their share of voter registration throughout the state, face the very real possibility of a Democratic supermajority in the Legislature next year and are not considered a consistent threat in any statewide election. For Republicans, local offices are where they can have a policy impact.

And despite several major policy victories for environmentalists, the defeat of the de Leon measure is a big win for the advocates of economic development. 

John Husing, the chief economist of the Inland Empire Economic Partnership, has been studying Southern California’s economy since 1964. His research suggests a correlation between the rise of poverty and the rise of environmental regulations in the state. Husing argues that while the policies have had a positive impact on air quality in the region, the policies are imbalanced in relation to business development and subsequently drive poverty, which affects health. 

“The whole air-quality, green initiative is having detrimental effect on moving people out of poverty and into the middle class,” Husing said of the SCAQMD region and the neighboring central valley.

Environment v. economy

Environmentalists have often said that any job loss associated with these air-quality policies would be offset by job creation in green sectors. However, Husing says statistics say that isn’t true, at least not in areas with high unemployment, like many communities in the SCAQMD.

Citing data from the California Employment Development Department and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Husing said from 2010 to 2016 the U.S. added 836,000 manufacturing jobs, compared to California which added 42,500 — a mere 5.1 percent. While the growth rate is on pace with with the national average, it lags by over 50 percent behind the state’s share of gross state product.

Husing said that the sluggish growth of manufacturing jobs in the state is attributed to three factors: Companies leaving, companies growing beyond the state’s borders and out-of-state companies refusing to grow in the state.

“Whose affected by that? It’s not the companies,” Husing said. “They’re doing fine some place else. It’s workers whose jobs are never created. … So you’re basically cutting off routes to the middle class for those workers.”

The vote

The measure failed just before the stroke of midnight on Wednesday, 30-36. And while it is seen as a victory for Republicans, the measure was largely defeated by the 14 assemblymembers, all Democrats, who didn’t vote.

Those who didn’t vote were Luis Alejo of Watsonville, Joaquin Arambula of Fresno, Kansen Chu of San Jose, Jim Frazier of Oakley, Rich Gordon of Menlo Park, Adam Gray of Merced (who was not present), Kevin Mullin of South San Francisco and Shirley Weber of San Diego. The six who didn’t vote and live in the region were Ian Calderon of Whittier, Eduardo Garcia of Coachella, Mike Gipson of Carson, Roger Hernandez of West Covina, Chris Holden of Pasadena and Patrick O’Donnell of Long Beach.

Cap-and-trade spending deal reached

Good morning. Welcome to the first day of September and the morning after the last day of legislative session. While the last day was tamer than some years past, the whole thing didn’t slip by without some big actions.

For example, Gov. Jerry Brown and legislators reached an agreement on Wednesday on what to do with around a billion dollars of cap-and-trade revenue.

The deal was announced earlier in the day and was approved by dinner after a longstanding battle between legislative leadership, who had a long list of ways to spend the money, and Brown, who had yet to give his blessing.

“California’s combating climate change on all fronts and this plan gets us the most bang for the buck,” Brown said in a statement when the deal was announced. “It directs hundreds of millions where it’s needed most – to help disadvantaged communities, curb dangerous super pollutants and cut petroleum use – while saving some for the future.” 

The spending plan comes at an interesting time for the cap-and-trade program, as the last two quarterly auctions have fallen flat, greatly missing revenue targets, and the program itself faces legal challenges as opponents argue it’s an illegal tax.

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Legislators paid awkward tribute to one of their brethren who is under a restraining order for allegedly beating his wife, with one noting how “proud” she was of his ability to walk through the backlash. CalWatchdog has more.
• The Los Angeles Times puts a cap on the two-year session with the biggest wins and losses.
• “Offering a ray of hope in the struggle to save a tiny fish enmeshed in California’s water disputes, state officials say they have found a way to move around river water to produce more food for hungry or starving Delta smelt,” writes The San Jose Mercury News. 
• “Controversy around displaying the confederate flag has hit Fresno where an artist says he’s being unfairly banned from showing a painting at the county fair,” according to Capital Public Radio.
• “Legislation to overhaul California’s public utilities regulator stalled in the final hours of the legislative session as its backer said the Senate Republican leader blocked a vote,” writes The Sacramento Bee. 

Legislature: 

• Gone ’til December. It’s all politics now, writes The Sacramento Bee. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

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New follower: @CalMarijPolicy

And while the tributes range in length and tone — one legislator joked (?) about his romantic feelings for Assemblywoman Nora Campos — none were as awkward as the one for termed-out Roger Hernández, who was recently placed under a restraining order from his now-ex-wife and was subsequently stripped of his committee assignments.

Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, D-San Diego, was the first of around a half dozen Democrats to pay kind words to the West Covina Democrat, whom she had known since election night 2000.

Gonzalez spoke of Hernández’s focus on immigrant communities and low-wage workers.

“This body will miss your work,” Gonzalez said.

Remember when he stole a member’s mic?

Gonzalez opened her remarks with a joke about Hernández’s relationship with Assemblyman Matthew Harper, R-Huntington Beach. Last July, Hernández had security remove Harper’s microphone at a committee hearing on increasing the minimum wage after repeatedly talking over Harper and calling a vote to end debate. Videos suggested that even the clerk and deputies seemed confused by Hernández’s requests.

“Seargents have already turned off Mr. Harper’s microphone, so we’re going to do OK,” Gonzalez said.

Harper declined to speak on Wednesday when jokingly asked.

“Thank you for your wisdom, Mr. Harper,” said Assemblyman Kevin Mullin, D-South San Francisco, who was presiding.

Proud

Assemblywoman Shirley Weber had the most awkward exchange with Hernández, however, when she said she was “proud” to see how he’d handled himself over the past year.

In April, Hernández was placed under a temporary restraining order from his then-wife, Susan Rubio, after allegations of domestic violence surfaced during divorce proceedings.

Rubio alleged Hernández assaulted her 20 times over a three-year period, detailing eight alleged incidents in court that included being choked with a belt, being beat with a broom while on the ground and being threatened with a knife after having been accused of an affair.

Hernández has not been charged with a crime but was placed under a three-year restraining order earlier this summer. Hernández has denied the allegations, and even compared Rubio to former Olympic ice skater Tonya Harding, who hired a thug to whack the knee of another skater, Nancy Kerrigan.

It’s not the first time Hernández was in trouble. In 2012, an ex-girlfriend accused him of domestic violence, although charges were never filed. That same year, Hernández was arrested for drunk driving in a state vehicle, but was acquitted by a jury on one charge, while the jury was hung on another. And in 2015, allegations of political money laundering against Hernández were dropped by the Fair Political Practices Commission after two key witnesses were unable to testify — one had serious medical issues while the other passed away.

“You’ve taken a lot this year,” Weber said. “You’ve taken a lot over the years. And I’m always so proud to see you stand.”

Weber added that she thought of Hernández as courageous on tough issues, a man of “tremendous love and respect” and reiterated her appreciation for his toughness during his personal turmoil. Hernández recently dropped a bid for Congress amid the allegations.

“Many of us struggle with all the issues of life and we crumble as a result of it, but you did not,” Weber said. 

Controversial language dropped from Title IX bill

Good morning and welcome to Thursday. While all eyes will be on the Legislature’s appropriations committee meetings today and the hundreds of bills they’ll be deciding the fate of, one bill found new life yesterday. 

After weeks of opposition from religious colleges and their supporters, state Sen. Ricardo Lara announced he would drop provisions from a bill that would have made it more difficult for faith-based institutions to receive Title IX exemptions.

The Bell Gardens Democrat said he wrote Senate Bill 1146 to protect LGBT students who may not be treated equally at religious colleges by putting roadblocks in the way for institutions making admission, housing and accommodation decisions based on traditional views about sexuality. 

But after pushback from religious colleges who claim the bill forces them to violate long-established standards of conduct, as well as making them vulnerable to lawsuits, Lara said SB1146 required a second look.

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Around 1,341 people die annually from bad air in the Los Angeles area, making it the deadliest air in the country, according to a new study. The Orange County Register has more. 
• “Critics of Gov. Jerry Brown’s nearly $16 billion plan to bore two massive tunnels under the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta won a state audit of its ongoing costs on Wednesday, though state officials don’t expect the audit to delay the project,” reports The San Jose Mercury News/AP.
• The sponsor of a bill to would extend job protection for workers on parental leave plans to revive the bill before the end of the legislative session after it died in June at the hands of West Covina Democrat Roger Hernández. “Two months prior, (the sponsor) had issued a public letter demanding that Hernández take a leave of absence from the Legislature pending resolution of spousal-abuse charges filed in April,” writes the Santa Barbara Independent.
• “Orange County supervisors have unleashed a frontal assault on the California Shield Law, which protects journalists from disclosing unpublished information and is vital to the news gathering process in our democracy,” writes Voice of OC. 

Legislature:

• The Appropriations committees in both chambers convene today to clear out hundreds of bills from the “suspense file,” the beginning of which is done in near secrecy, writes the Los Angeles Times.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

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Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @provpophealth

Assembly challenger tries to make campaign issue of unreleased tax returns

Good morning and TGIF.

The Democratic challenger in an Orange County Assembly race is going after the incumbent, Republican Young Kim, for not releasing her tax returns — just like Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, is doing to Donald Trump, the billionaire Republican presidential nominee.

But there’s two differences: While releasing tax returns is a time-honored tradition in presidential elections (as is fighting over them), it’s not common for legislative candidates. And unlike Trump, both candidates’ salary information is mostly available online.

The campaign of Sharon Quirk-Silva — the Democrat who Kim knocked out of office in 2014 — said Kim’s refusal to release her tax returns raises questions about her commitment to transparency: What is she hiding?

Of course, the campaign also concedes it doesn’t necessarily believe Kim’s hiding anything. Matthew Reilly, a Quirk-Silva spokesman, told CalWatchdog that “our politics are being dragged down by people who aren’t on the up and up,” but said he didn’t have much reason to believe Kim isn’t on the “up and up.”

“I don’t know,” Reilly said. “I assume that she is, but I don’t know.”

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• The headline says it all: “Mayor of Stockton arrested for playing strip poker with teens and secretly recording it.” The Washington Post has more.
• Legislators and law enforcement have reached a deal on a bill that would curb abuses of civil asset forfeiture — a practice where law enforcement can take citizens’ possessions without a conviction or even an arrest. The Los Angeles Times has more. 
• With efforts to extend climate change policies stalling in the Legislature, Gov. Jerry Brown is considering moving the fight to the 2018 ballot, according to the Los Angeles Times.
• “Assemblyman Roger Hernández, who was booted from his committee posts this summer after a judge issued a domestic violence restraining order against him, continues to draw per diem payments for travel-related expenses to Sacramento despite being absent from work and on medical leave,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

Assembly:

• Gone ’til Monday. 

Senate:

• Gone ’til Monday. 

Gov. Brown: 

• In El Cajon at 11 a.m. attending the memorial service of SDPD officer Jonathan de Guzman. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @BIG_ASS_FANS

First, the West Covina Democrat made his official Twitter account private sometime in July, and then on Monday he went on medical leave for a week or two to start the last month of the legislative session.

A spokesperson for the West Covina Democrat did not immediately respond to requests for comment, but both his office and the office of Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Paramount, confirmed to The Sacramento Bee on Monday that Hernandez requested medical leave that would likely extend through this week and much of next week.

What it means

The legislative session ends with August, meaning Hernandez could have potentially cast his last vote, depending on how much time the termed-out legislator ultimately misses.

But as it stands now, he’ll make it back for the end-of-session flurry of votes where his vote could make the difference between success and failure on either liberal priorities or bills requiring a two-thirds majority, like a Democratic transportation package.

Hernandez is running against Rep. Grace Napolitano for the Norwalk Democrat’s seat in Congress, although the protracted scandal has likely hurt his chances in a race that was always going to be difficult. Since the domestic violence allegations began to surface, his fundraising has struggled and many of his allies fled.

Hernandez was accused by his wife, Baldwin Park City Councilwoman Susan Rubio, from whom he is getting divorced, of assaulting her 20 times over a three-year period, which included choking her with a belt, beating her with a broom while she lay on the ground and threatening her with a knife after accusing her of an affair. 

Tweeting beyond the curtain

A small band of the Twitterati ripped Hernandez for making his official Twitter account private (it was done within the last month or so).

Why would a public official running for Congress have a protected Twitter account? Shame on @Roger_Hernandez pic.twitter.com/rgTyF4HBGF

— Carol Dahmen (@sactotrixie) August 1, 2016

@sactotrixie @Roger_Hernandez Because it's no longer about what he's running FOR, but what he's running FROM….

— Ryan Endean (@ryanendean) August 1, 2016

Past allegations

Hernández has been accused of wrongdoing before. In 2012, an ex-girlfriend accused him of domestic violence, although charges were never filed due to insufficient evidence. 

That same year, Hernández was arrested for drunk driving in a state vehicle, but was acquitted by a jury on one charge, while the jury was hung on another. 

And in 2015, allegations of political money laundering against Hernández were dropped by the Fair Political Practices Commission after two key witnesses were unable to testify — one had serious medical issues while the other had passed away. 

Women make up more than half of California’s population, but only about one-fourth of the Legislature. 

And in November, that’s unlikely to change too much, according to a CalWatchdog analysis.

While an October surprise, outside factor or just particularly good or bad campaigning could change the course of race that appears to be a sure thing, primary results, incumbency advantages, voting trends and partisan makeup of a district can be useful in making educated guesses.

Currently, out of 120 legislative seats, there are 30 held by women — an additional seat is vacant now, having been held by the late Republican Senator Sharon Runner, who died unexpectedly earlier this month.   

There could be as many as 49 women in the Legislature next year, but it is likely that they’ll hover around the same amount as this year.  

In the Senate, women could have as few as five seats and as many as 13 — realistically, the number will likely be around eight to 10 seats. In the Assembly, women will occupy at least six seats and as many as 36, but that number will likely be somewhere between 15 and 24 seats. 

What we know for sure

Republican Senators Jean Fuller, Janet Nguyen, Pat Bates and Democratic Senators Connie Leyva and Holly Mitchell are not up for re-election and will definitely be returning next year, as the Senate is on staggered four-year terms.

In the Assembly, every seat is up for re-election every two years, although five seats will definitely stay occupied by women — either because the incumbent is running unopposed (or facing a write-in challenge) or because the incumbents are facing another woman in the general election. Those five seats are held by: Democrats Cheryl Brown, Cristina Garcia and Autumn Burke and Republicans Catharine Baker and Young Kim. 

Because of either term limits or the seat being vacated by an incumbent running for another position, eight seats held by women will be replaced by men as no women advanced from the primary in these races. Those are the seats currently held by Republican Assemblywomen Beth Gaines, Kristin Olsen, Shannon Grove and Ling Ling Chang and one Democrat, Toni Atkins, as well as two Democratic senators, Carol Liu and Fran Pavley.

Runner’s Senate seat will also be filled by a man.

There is only one definite pickup: An Assembly seat held by termed-out Democrat Luis Alejo.  

Seats where we likely know the outcome

Again, nothing is guaranteed until the final votes are tallied, but these nine seats are safe bets.

While the Assembly seat of Speaker Emeritus Toni Atkins will be filled with a man as mentioned above, the San Diego Democrat is expected to offset that loss by filling a seat being vacated by a man in the Senate. 

Because of the advantages of incumbency, district voting trends and favorable lopsided primary results, these eight female legislators will likely keep their seats: In the Senate, it’s Democrats Hannah-Beth Jackson (the current chair of the Women’s Caucus) and Cathleen Galgiani, and in the Assembly, it’s Democrats Jacqui Irwin, Susan Talamantes Eggman, Shirley Weber and Lorena Gonzalez with Republicans Melissa Melendez and Marie Waldron.

One female incumbent in trouble 

The only incumbent woman who is on very shaky ground is Democrat Patty Lopez. Lopez finished second in the primary, down 17.2 percentage points to the man she surprisingly knocked out of office in 2014, fellow Democrat Raul Bocanegra.

Best pickup chances

In the race to replace Sen. Mark Leno, who is termed out, Jane Kim led the primary against fellow Democrat Scott Wiener 45.3 percent to 45.1 percent. It’s obviously a close race, but it is a good chance for a woman to pick up a seat.

In a less competitive race, Democrat Cecilia Aguiar-Curry finished first in the primary against Republican Charlie Schaupp in a heavily Democratic district to replace Assemblyman Bill Dodd, D-Napa, who is running for Senate.

Democrat S. Monique Limón finished the primary with a formidable lead against Edward Fuller, who claims no party preference, 65.9 percent t0 34.1 percent. If elected, Limón would replace Democratic Assemblyman Das Williams. 

In the race to replace termed-out, Democratic Assemblyman Roger Hernandez — who is currently under a three-year restraining order for alleged domestic violence — Blanca Rubio appears likely to win. Rubio, a Democrat, will face Republican Cory Ellenson in a heavily-Democratic district.

Two wildcards 

Two seats where women have decent chances to pickup seats, although the odds are slightly tipped against them, are the Senate races to replace termed-out Republican Bob Huff and incumbent Democrat Jim Beall.

Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang saw an opening in the Huff race and decided to vacate her Assembly seat after only one term. However, she finished the primary with only 44 percent, with two Democrats splitting the 56 percent majority. 

Beall is being challenged by Assemblywoman Nora Campos, a fellow Democrat. Beall narrowly missed a majority in the primary, topping Campos by 22.5 percentage points. Campos is considered the business-friendly candidate, so she’ll have to use that to draw upon Republican support to top Beall.

Toss ups

There are approximately 11 races that look as though they could go either way, with four being vacated by termed-out women. Another four are against male incumbents: Republicans Marc Steinorth, Eric Linder and Travis Allen and Democrat Miguel Santiago.  

Looking for October surprises

And there are 11 other races where women are challenging male incumbents, although these races do not appear as though they’ll be too competitive. 

State senator’s death doesn’t give Democrats supermajority

Good morning! It’s Friday, phew.

While the sudden death of a Republican senator Thursday morning seemingly gives Senate Democrats a two-thirds majority in the chamber, the state’s Constitution prevents it from having any effect, a Senate Rules Committee spokesman confirmed.

Sen. Sharon Runner died Thursday morning, ending a longtime battle with scleroderma — a condition that forced the Lancaster Republican from office in 2012 and required a double lung transplant that same year. Voters sent Runner back to the Senate in 2015 in a special election, but she decided not to run again in 2016.

Senate Democrats are one seat away from being in a supermajority — a two-thirds majority that would allow them to approve tax increases, gubernatorial veto overrides and constitutional amendments without Republican votes.

But staff of Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon, who also chairs the Rules Committee, confirmed that the threshold is a fixed number of votes (27) based on the number of seats (40), not the number of sitting senators (39). There are currently 26 Democratic senators.

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• “It wasn’t just generous spring rains filling north-state reservoirs that had California’s urban water districts pushing back so hard against mandatory water cuts this year. All those brown lawns and shorter showers have cost them millions in customer revenue,” writes The Sacramento Bee. 
• Thousands of incarcerated felons may soon be allowed to vote in California elections, reports the Los Angeles Times.
• After being placed under a three-year restraining order from his wife, being stripped of his committee assignments, and seeing six endorsers flee from his side in his run at Congress, Assemblyman Roger Hernandez is now feeling the pain in his pocketbook — he raised only $8,849 last quarter. The Los Angeles Times has more.  
• Teachers unions and the California Hospitals Assn. are very concerned with extending a tax on the rich that would benefit them — about $28 million worth of concern. The Los Angeles Times has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone ’til August.

Gov. Brown:

• On vacation.

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