Last June, I wrote a column forecasting which tax increase measures might be on the Nov. 2016 ballot given the conversations going on then.

Time for an update.

As is nearly always the case in the political world, situations and strategies change. What’s being discussed most heavily today is not necessarily what will be pushed to the ballot for voters to decide in 2016.

By measuring fact, rumor and innuendo, I’ll offer my reading of the top five tax possibilities for the Nov. 2016 ballot.

First, a word about those that did not make the list this time. Previously, a soda tax was on the list, but that possibility seems to have faded for the moment.  Instead, advocates are considering labeling sodas with more information about the sugar content.

There is a constant buzz about restructuring the entire tax system and that has been heightened by the introduction of Senate Bill 8, by state Sen. Bob Hertzberg, D-Van Nuys. The bill would re-do the tax system, cut some tax rates and introduce a service tax.

Hertzberg hasn’t developed the plan in full as yet. Both the Left and the Right have attacked the idea. However, he also is working closely with the Think Long Committee for California, which has the resources to qualify a measure for the ballot. As of now, the idea is not ready for consideration.

To the list, then:

5. OIL SEVERANCE TAX. Previous Ranking #3.

Whether the oil severance tax initiative moves forward depends on one man – hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer. He said he would rather work through the legislative process, but the bill would be unlikely to pass the Legislature.

Steyer also is said to be interested in promoting an initiative that would require a two-thirds vote in local communities to approve fracking for oil. While he has the resources to do more than one measure, the odds are he would focus on just one, if any.

4. SURPLUS! NO NEW TAXES. Previous ranking: Unranked

Okay, this is obviously not a tax-increase measure. However, with the recent announcement of an unexpected $1 billion in the state treasury many experts predict the state budget will have a surplus of $2 billion dollars or more. Under such conditions, some observers suggest new taxes won’t fly with the voters, so why try?

A lot will depend on the fiscal situation heading into next year’s budget. But even if the economy holds steady and the budget is in good shape, it is hard to imagine there won’t be at least one tax-increase measure on next year’s ballot. Still, the chances are more likely today than they were a year ago that a surplus could stall the tax-increase movement.

3. SPLIT ROLL. Previous ranking: #2

There still is an ongoing grassroots effort to promote a split-roll property tax requiring business property to be taxed on a different basis than residential property. While that’s going on, big players have yet to commit to funding such an initiative.

Certainly, there would be big money spent to oppose such a measure. So both sides are considering the issue carefully. The school establishment would have to step up to support a split roll and consider how a property tax on the same ballot with an extension of the Proposition 30 taxes would play.

Also, a state school bond measure may be on the ballot, attracting attention from the school folks. A couple of sources tell me a little air has come out of the split-roll effort. So while it certainly hasn’t gone away, it drops to #3.

2. CIGARETTE TAX: Previous ranking: #4

The possibility of a cigarette tax on the ballot has moved up simply because some of the items in front of it moved down in the rankings. There really hasn’t been a change in the emphasis of a cigarette tax by proponents.

They will try the legislative route, but if unsuccessful will consider going to the ballot, where they were very close to passing a measure the last time they tried. In 2012, Proposition 29 failed, but by a narrow margin of 50.3 percent to 49.7 percent.

1. EXTENSION OF PROPOSITION 30. Previous ranking: #1

No change here. Many insiders believe Proposition 30, the $7 billion tax voters passed in 2012, would be the easiest tax to pass since it is already levied. Especially if the sales tax piece is removed, many voters would not directly feel the tax’s pinch. That would leave only the tax increases on high-incomes, including the 13.3 percent top tax on millionaires.

All the spending interests may not be happy, since schools get most of the money. But extending Prop. 30 still stands as the most likely tax measure to be on the ballot. The biggest question: What will Gov. Jerry Brown say about continuing the “temporary tax”?

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With the rising conversation about extending Proposition 30‘s temporary taxes, I asked state Treasurer John Chiang if he would advise that the taxes be continued. Chiang said a promise was made that the taxes would be temporary and circumstances would have to change, such as the economy tanking, to justify continuing the taxes.

A Democrat, Chiang spoke to the Town Hall Los Angeles Thursday, reviewing his actions as state controller, a post he held for eight years before being elected treasurer last November; and reporting that California went from dire fiscal circumstances to the “most robust economic recovery on the planet.”

However, Chiang said all was not rosy. Even with paying down the debt, he said current debt numbers were higher than historic norms, public sector health care and pension liabilities were issues that could not be ignored and affordable housing was important for the state’s economic health.

Last week Chiang joined Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, in support of proposals aimed at helping ease the housing crisis. The proposals call for a new fee on real estate transaction recording documents and an expansion of the low-income housing tax credit for builders.

In answer to a question, Chiang said he would study if an increase in the property tax homeowner exemption would also aid in home ownership.

No split-roll

As to business property, Chiang did not support a split-roll property tax that would tax commercial property differently from residential property “at this time.” Doing so would be a major change to Proposition 13, the 1978 tax-limitation measure. Currently, Prop. 13 treats all property the same, limiting taxes to 1 percent of assessed value, with a maximum increase of 2 percent a year.

However, he suggested reforms could be necessary in the rules on change of ownership of business property.

The state’s economy recently moved up to be ranked seventh largest in the world and last week the Fitch rating agency upgraded California’s credit rating to an A+. But Chiang warned a drop in the business cycle could suddenly produce a gap in the state’s finances.

Chiang praised voters for passing Proposition 2, the rainy-day fund measure in the last election, to cushion any revenue shortfalls. But he said more must be done to protect California’s economy. He said business regulation must be reduced and the state tax structure must be reformed.

Chiang spoke about an acquaintance who runs a shrimp company who had to deal with four or five government agencies’ regulations. That process must be streamlined, said the treasurer.

I asked Chiang if he had consulted with state Sen. Robert Hertzberg, D-Van Nuys, on his tax restructuring proposal, Senate Bill 8. It includes a $10 billion tax on services, with reductions to some other taxes.

Chiang said he had not heard from Hertzberg on the bill, but it was important the discussion generated by the Hertzberg proposal go forward; that state tax policies needed to be updated.