Two months ago, Republican operatives feared that presidential nominee Donald Trump would destroy their chances to

Now things look much brighter for the party after a rough stretch for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The Senate appears less at risk because the fact that Trump is the GOP nominee doesn’t seem to be held against GOP incumbents. Gerrymandering appears to have left the House Republican majority safe, perhaps until 2022, after the next census.

But in California, at least, the assumption remains the Trump will drag down GOP candidates in congressional races. That’s why the state Democratic Party is seeking in seven swing districts to target Republicans who are “running on the Trump ticket,” according to a party statement last week as it launched the WrongForCA.com website and related social media efforts.

Four of the Republicans are incumbents: Jeff Denham, R-Turlock, Darrell Issa, R-Vista, Steve Knight, R-Lancaster, and David Valadao, R-Hanford.

The other three are businessman Justin Fareed, seeking the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps in the Santa Barbara area; businesswoman Denise Gitsham, who’s going against Rep. Scott Peters, D-San Diego, and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, who is targeting Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove

Michael Soller, communications director for the California Democratic Party, likened Trump’s candidacy to a “sick joke.”

The best hope of sinking a GOP incumbent may be in Issa’s district, which straddles north San Diego County and south Orange County and appears to be moving leftward from its traditional Republicanism. Issa only got 51 percent of the vote in the June primary and has a higher-profile opponent than in past elections, former Marine Lt. Col. Doug Applegate. Running against a poorly funded, little-known Democrat in November 2014, Issa took 60 percent of the vote. The former chairman of the House oversight committee has endorsed Trump, while also making clear his lack of enthusiasm for the New York billionaire.

In November 2014, Denham won with 56 percent of the vote. Knight won with 53 percent and Valadao with 58 percent.

GOP could take first CA Democratic House seat since 1998

Of the other three races, the most surprising is the battle for the seat of the retiring Capps. The Cook Political Report moved the race between Fareed and Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal from “solid Democrat” to “leaning Democrat” last week after Carbajal’s campaign released a seemingly credible Tarrance Group poll showing Fareed up 46 percent to 43 percent.

But as the Cook analysis noted, California Republicans have not won a congressional district represented by a Democrat since 1998. That was when then-Assemblyman Steven T. Kuykendall, R-Rancho Palos Verdes, defeated Janice Hahn of the dynastic Los Angeles political family for a seat that had previously been held by Jane Harman, who ran for governor in 1998. Harman defeated Kuykendall in 2000, making him the only House incumbent to lose that year.

Hanh succeeded Harman in 2011.

California Republicans hit a new low in statewide registration relative to Democrats, whose ranks have surged in the Golden State despite a sour public mood and a less charismatic presidential nominee than in recent election cycles. “The California Democratic Party added about 700,000 voters between January and July of this year, a 10 percent increase,” the Sacramento Bee reported, citing new data from the California Secretary of State. “The Republican Party in California added about 130,000 voters, a 3 percent increase, between January and July. The number of voters not stating a party preference rose by about 70,000, or 2 percent. The number of third-party voters fell by about 90,000, or 10 percent.”

That widened the gap between the parties to a distance not seen in over 10 years — 45 percent for Democrats to 27 percent for the GOP. And though Republicans nationwide have feared that Donald Trump’s anti-establishment campaign could de-register some party faithful, in California, at least, the upsurge in Democrats could not be attributed to switches in affiliation. “Much of the increase in party registration seems to have come from the ranks of those not already registered to vote,” the Bee noted. “Overall, the number of Californians registered to vote increased by about 825,000 between January and July to 18.1 million. That equates to 73 percent of California adults eligible to vote.”

Incumbent problems

Yet in the face of such numbers, the Trump campaign’s unpopularity in California has forced some in-state Republican incumbents into a delicate balancing act. To hedge against Trump’s high-profile spat earlier this month with the Muslim parents of Humyun Khan, an Army captain killed in the Iraq War, Rep. Steve Knight, R-Palmdale, “called Trump’s comments about Khan’s parents ‘deplorable,'” the Los Angeles Times recalled. Meanwhile, “Republican Assemblyman David Hadley of Manhattan Beach penned an opinion piece in the Daily Breeze saying he won’t vote for Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton. Both are locked in tough re-election fights and were called out by Democratic rivals to denounce Trump.”

But the Trump factor has ratcheted up the local stakes most in the race against Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove, who unseated leading Republican Rep. Dan Lungren in 2012. Bera’s challenger this year, Sacramento county sheriff Scott Jones, “stepped into the public spotlight in 2014 when he decried President Obama for the nation’s immigration problems shortly after a twice-deported Mexican national killed two police officers during a Northern California shooting rampage,” the Times noted. But his endorsement of Trump gave Bera an opportunity to hold his feet to the fire on the Khan controversy — a dynamic which has yet to let up.

Farther right

At the same time that they face pressure from the left, California Republicans have also had to contend with a small but growing alternative to their right. While some voters have simply dropped their party affiliation — the state’s 4.2 million “no preference” bloc now amounts to over 23 percent of voters, as CBS San Francisco observed — disaffected Californians on the right have pushed the American Independent registration into a commanding position in the second political tier. “Among third parties, officials said 454,946 voters are registered American Independent, 78,604 voters are registered with the Green Party, 116,628 voters are registered Libertarians and 70,695 voters are registered with the Peace and Freedom party,” according to the station. 

And the American Independents have nominated Donald Trump for president despite Trump not actively campaigning for their support. “The American Independent Party is best known for supporting segregationist George Wallace in the 1968 election where he won five states, a feat that has not been replicated by any third party candidate since,” TPM noted. Despite a periodic insistence that Trump will change California’s political dynamic to the advantage of Republicans, few analysts think the effort will help the state GOP shift its numbers toward greater support.

Sitting state senator passes

Sad news today: State Sen. Sharon Runner has died.

The Lancaster Republican has battled health issues for sometime, having survived a double lung transplant in recent years. She announced earlier this year that she would not run for re-election.

“Sharon Runner’s life was one of service,” California Republican Party Chairman Jim Brulte told The Sacramento Bee. “Whether it was establishing a Christian day school to help educate children, serving first in the California State Assembly and then in the California State Senate, or fighting for initiatives to protect families in California – Sharon was committed to the people of her community and our great state.”

• After shooting an unarmed teenager last month, Fresno PD took a rare step Wednesday by releasing body camera footage of the incident. The Los Angeles Times has more. 
• Newly uncovered court documents allege Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones — a Republican who is challenging Rep. Ami Bera, R-Elk Grove, for his seat in Congress — made unwanted sexual advances toward a subordinate. The Sacramento Bee has more.   
• Sending a 550-person delegation to Ohio for the Republican National Convention is neither easy nor cheap, reports Capital Public Radio. 
• “Last week, a coalition of California Central Valley water districts sued the Bureau of Reclamation in the latest installment of the litigation wars over the delta smelt.  The new lawsuit, filed in federal district court in Fresno, and coming on the heels of the Governor Brown administration’s announcement to release an additional annual 200,000 acre-feet of water for the smelt, challenges the Bureau’s recent issuance of an environmental impact statement purportedly assessing the effects that the smelt-inspired water cutbacks have had on the San Joaquin Valley,” writes the Pacific Legal Foundation.

Legislature:

• Gone ’til August

Gov. Brown:

• On vacation

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By Dave Roberts

If Proposition 36 passes, about 2,800 inmates who have committed multiple felonies and are serving sentences of 25 years to life could be released from prison or re-sentenced to lesser terms. Those criminals were sentenced under California’s “three strikes and you’re out” law, and committed a third felony that falls under the penal code’s non-serious, non-violent categories.

And that concerns Prop. 36 opponents, who spoke at a joint legislative safety committee informational hearing last month.

“The proponents of this initiative like to speak of the pizza thief or the baby formula thief or the bread thief that gets sentenced to 25 to life,” said Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, representing the California Peace Officers Association. “But it’s important to keep in perspective and remember that to get to that point where someone is eligible for a sentence of 25 years to life, they must have been convicted of at least two prior convictions of a serious and violent felony. So they have demonstrated not only a propensity for criminal behavior throughout their lifetime, but they have also demonstrated their own unwillingness to conform to the legal mandates of society.”

California’s three strikes law was enacted in 1994 with the passage of Prop. 184. It applies to criminals who have twice committed serious or violent felonies such as rape, robbery or residential burglary and then go on to commit a third felony, whether it falls into the serious or violent category or not. The minimum term is 25 years to life.

In the debate at the time, the pizza analogy was explained in a 1995 Los Angeles Times article, “Jerry Dewayne Williams was sentenced to prison for 25 years to life Thursday under the state’s ‘three strikes’ law for stealing a slice of pepperoni pizza.”

Currently, there about 9,000 third-strike criminals behind bars, and another 33,000 inmates have two strikes on their records, according to legislative analyst Brian Brown.

Contrary to popular belief, the 25-to-life sentence is not automatic for a third strike felony offense. Only 14 percent of three-strike offenders are actually serving 25-to-life sentences.

“Courts have significant discretion in this area,” said Brown. “Courts have discretion to dismiss prior strikes, or effectively to look at someone who might otherwise be eligible for a third-strike life term and say that in the interests of justice that individual should instead be sentenced to a shorter term. That’s usually done by dismissing one or more of the prior strikes. A person might be eligible for a third strike, but instead get a second strike at twice the normal term.”

Serious felonies

While Prop. 36 would provide similar leniency for many third-strike felons, it would not do so for those who have been convicted of rape, murder or child molestation. And it would still be up to a judge to decide whether a third-striker with a non-serious, non-violent third offense would have his sentence reduced or commuted. Those who pose a risk to public safety would not be eligible for resentencing.

The state budget could save $70 million annually for the first couple of years that Prop. 36 is in effect, increasing thereafter to $90 million annually, according to Brown. He cautioned that actual savings could be higher or lower by tens of millions of dollars per year, depending on how many inmates are resentenced and how many future criminals are convicted of third-strike felonies.

Jones countered that some of that cost would actually be shifted to the state’s 58 counties, which would be hit with the court and jailing expenses for the 2,800 criminals seeking resentencing. These costs would come on top of “the influx of 3,000 inmates to an already overburdened local detention population in each county that has already had to see early releases in many counties because of the realities of realignment,” he said.

But Jones is more concerned about the type of people who would be released under Prop. 36. Although it specifies that they must have committed a non-serious, non-violent third offense under the penal code to be eligible for early release, that still leaves many crimes that most people would consider serious and violent. These include elder abuse, child abuse likely to cause injury or death, involuntary manslaughter, vehicular manslaughter, injuring a peace officer while attempting to escape, possession of a weapon of mass destruction, sexual exploitation by a doctor or psychiatrist, felony spousal abuse, human trafficking, arson, stalking, threatening a witness or juror, or solicitation for murder.

“Those things, while they would defy our common sense definition of ‘non-serious, non-violent,’ are legally non-serious, non-violent,” said Jones.

Crime reduction

The sheriff argued that the three strikes law has been very effective, reducing crime by nearly 50 percent in the 15 years after it was enacted compared to the 15 years prior.

“That’s not a coincidence,” he said. “Crime has been down even with diminishing law enforcement resources during this period of time. Studies have shown that approximately six percent of the people are responsible for 60 percent of the crime. It only stands to reason that if you remove from society these six percenters, as I call them, you will have an impact on the over-represented and over-productive level of crime that they commit. That’s what three strikes has done successfully for almost 20 years.

“Let’s face it, in every society there’s going to be a group of people, a segment of the population, that chooses crime as a career. That’s their choice. We can do nothing about that. If we allow them to continue in that career unabated without consequence, without removing them from society and without protecting the rest of law-abiding society from them, that’s our choice. That’s why I choose to urge everyone to maintain and vote no on Proposition 36.”

District attorneys

Also speaking against Prop. 36 was Sutter County District Attorney Carl Adams, who is president of the California District Attorneys Association. Only a handful of county district attorneys support Prop. 36, he said.

The vast majority of DA’s who are opposed “want to remove the worst offenders from society for the sake of our communities,” said Adams. “And we want to do it no matter what it costs. And we want to do it no matter what the impact is on prison populations. As a matter of fact, if we are going to talk about prison reductions at all, these are the 9,000 people we want to keep in prison. This is the top of the list, folks. These third strikers are the ones we build prisons for. Because putting these people in prison protects our citizens, protects our communities and keeps other people from having to suffer that serious or violent felony for the third time in the criminal’s history.”

Arguments in favor

The strongest argument in favor of Prop. 36 was made by Elsa Chen, an associate political science professor at Santa Clara University who has been studying the effects of three strikes for 16 years. She argued that public safety would actually be improved by releasing third-strikers. This is because they are older on average than most prisoners and less likely to commit crimes when they get out. In addition, by taking up space in overcrowded prisons, they pressure authorities to release younger prisoners who may be more likely to return to crime after they’re released.

“Therefore, implementing Proposition 36 is unlikely to lead to higher rates of crime,” said Chen. “In fact, its passage might free up space for more serious and violent offenders by not filling up our prisons with aging non-serious, non-violent offenders.”

Other benefits of Proposition 36, according to Chen, include: 1) Reducing racial disparities in sentencing wherein African Americans are 47 percent more likely to be sentenced to three strikes than whites. 2) Reducing geographical disparities where district attorneys and judges in counties with a higher proportion of Republicans or Latinos are more likely to impose three strikes sentences.

But, unlike other Prop. 36 proponents, Chen acknowledged that three strikes has led to a decrease in some crimes, although not the nearly 50 percent reduction that Jones and others claim.

“Three strikes laws in general appear to be associated with slightly accelerated declines in robbery, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft,” she said. “But there was no effect on murder, rape or aggravated assault.”

But her arguments and those of other Prop. 36 supporters did not persuade Senator Tom Harman, R- Huntington Beach, to abandon three strikes.

“I’m absolutely convinced that it’s working,” he said. “It’s what the people want. I am a little skeptical of the fiscal analysis suggesting there may be substantial savings. I kind of doubt that’s really going to happen. It’s the old story: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We’ve seen a 50 percent reduction in our crime rates in California. Yes, there have been somewhat similar reductions in other states. But I see no reason to try to modify the existing law and try to make it a little more lenient. Let the local DA in the various different counties do it that way if that’s what they want. I don’t think we need a statewide change to this law, which has had such a dramatic effect. The people that weren’t discussed too much here today, the victims both past and future, are of great concern to me. If we can do something to help prevent additional crimes from being perpetrated on future victims I’m fully supportive of that.”

Passage of Prop. 36 looks likely. An Oct. 21 USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll shows 63 percent in favor and 22 percent opposed. An Oct. 11 California Business Roundtable poll shows 72 percent support.