Jean Fuller kept on a Senate Republican leader

Good morning. Happy Hump Day. 

Senate Republicans in Sacramento unanimously re-elected Jean Fuller as leader on Tuesday. The Bakersfield Republican has led the caucus since August 2015. 

Last month, Chad Mayes, the Republican leader in the Assembly, was also re-elected. Both Fuller and Mayes will be tasked with steering their caucuses through a particularly difficult time for California Republicans. 

The November election relegated Republicans in the Legislature to mostly the role of bombthrowers and bystanders. By gaining a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of the Legislature, Democrats can approve taxes and add constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican support.

(Of course, that requires complete Democratic unity, which is often more elusive than it may seem at first glance.) 

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news: 

• “Close to 30 percent of the Bay Area’s residents aren’t able to make ends meet as they contend with high housing costs, suggesting poverty is more widespread in the region than official reports indicate, according to a study published Wednesday.” The San Jose Mercury News has more. 

• “After failing to pass new funding to tackle the state’s housing affordability crisis last session, two state senators are trying again. Sen. Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) and Sen. Jim Beall (D-San Jose) have re-introduced legislation to add a $75 fee to real estate transactions, which is expected to generate hundreds of millions a year for low-income housing construction, and place a $3-billion bond to finance low-income housing before voters in 2018, respectively.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• “California lawmakers will consider a proposal next year to block the state’s pension funds from investing in a controversial oil pipeline that is planned to cross North Dakota’s Standing Rock Sioux Reservation,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

• “In brief remarks about the subject, Brown said Monday that it would be difficult for the U.S. to ‘go rogue’ on climate change. He went further Tuesday in a broadcast discussion with former Vice President Al Gore, predicting a ‘negative and very powerful’ backlash throughout the world should Trump continue to voice his denials and impede the environmental progress of the last eight years.” The Sacramento Bee has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @gfolchi

“I am honored and humbled that my Republican colleagues have elected me to continue serving as Senate Republican Leader,” Fuller said in a statement. “I am committed and focused on issues that help Californians – jobs and affordability.”

Last month, Chad Mayes, the Republican leader in the Assembly, was also re-elected. Both Fuller and Mayes will be tasked with steering their caucuses through a particularly difficult time for California Republicans. 

The November election relegated Republicans in the Legislature to mostly the role of bombthrowers and bystanders. By gaining a two-thirds supermajority in both houses of the Legislature, Democrats can approve taxes and add constitutional amendments to the ballot without Republican support. (Of course, that requires complete Democratic unity, which is often more elusive than it may seem at first glance.) 

Fuller took the caucus’ reins from Bob Huff, who was forced from the Legislature by term limits in November. In fact, it was losing Huff’s seat, located mostly in north Orange County, that gave Democrats the supermajority.

Democrat Josh Newman, a political newcomer, defeated then-sitting Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang, a Republican, to win the seat. 

U.S./Mexico water negotiations closely watched

Good morning. Happy Hump Day. A deal between the U.S. and Mexico on how to apportion Colorado River water in drought conditions expires next year and negotiators are in overdrive to renew the pact before President Barack Obama leaves office on Jan. 20.

The talks are being closely watched by California officials. The Golden State relies heavily on Colorado River water, with an entitlement to 4.4 million acre-feet a year. That’s enough to supply nearly 9 million households, though a big chunk of the supply is used to irrigate the hundreds of square miles of agricultural fields in Imperial County (pictured) and the Coachella Valley.

Why the rush? Because U.S. and Mexican officials believe a new deal is crucial to preserving fragile Colorado River supplies. 

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• “California officials are pushing back on SEIU Local 1000’s plans for a one-day strike next week, warning employees that they could be subject to disciplinary action if they participate in what the state regards as an unlawful walkout,” writes The Sacramento Bee.

• “The state Supreme Court last week agreed to hear an appeal of a groundbreaking ruling that allows cuts in the pensions earned by current state and local government workers, including judges,” reports Capitol Weekly. 

• “A San Francisco supervisor is proposing more money for lawyers to defend immigrants who face possible deportation under a Trump administration. KCBS radio reports that San Francisco Supervisor David Campos will introduce legislation Tuesday setting aside $5 million from the city’s budget to help pay for lawyers to represent people in deportation proceedings.” The Los Angeles Times/Associated Press has more. 

• And in case you missed it: What a Democratic supermajority in the Legislature in the upcoming session may mean for the state. CalWatchdog has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @richardsstarr

Democratic supermajority in Legislature

Good morning. Happy Tuesday, also known informally around the CalWatchdog newsroom as “Almost Thanksgiving.” We have a bit of breaking news this morning: Democrats appear to have achieved a supermajority in the state Legislature.

The linchpin is one Southern California Senate district, where Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang had held a narrow lead over Democrat Josh Newman in the race to replace the former Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, who is termed out. 

But Chang’s lead dwindled daily. On Monday it was less than 200 votes. This morning she trails Newman by more than 800 votes.

We wrote about the importance of this race yesterday. 

In other news:

• Pension costs: “There’s bad news coming down the pike for California municipalities following several days of board meetings for the nation’s largest state-based pension fund. Although no action has been taken, it’s clear the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or CalPERS, might again lower its expected rate of returns on investments. That means cities and other member agencies would have to pay more to make up the shortfall.” CalWatchdog has more. 

• Calexit: “Supporters of a plan for California to secede from the union took their first formal step Monday morning, submitting a proposed ballot measure to the state attorney general’s office in the hopes of a statewide vote as soon as 2018.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• More Calexit: Most “Calexit” advocates do not note how legally difficult the process of secession is. In 2006, the late Justice Antonin Scalia wrote: “I cannot imagine that such a question could ever reach the Supreme Court. To begin with, the answer is clear. If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede.” CalWatchdog has more. 

• Trouble in Silicon Valley: “When it comes to working with the Trump administration, Silicon Valley finds itself in a bit of a bind: It needs to mend fences with an incoming president it derided, without stirring up liberal employees and netizens,” writes The San Jose Mercury News. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December.

Gov. Brown:

• In Modesto for the memorial service of Stanislaus County Sheriff’s Department Deputy Dennis Wallace. 11 a.m., CrossPoint Community Church, 1301 12th st.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @MahmoudAbuAish

The linchpin is one Southern California Senate district, where Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang has a narrow lead over Democrat Josh Newman in the race to replace the former Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff, who is termed out.

While Chang holds a lead, she’s losing ground every day. Last Wednesday, Chang led Newman by around 5,000 votes. The next day, her lead dropped to 3,500 votes.

On Monday, it was less than 200 votes, according to the Secretary of State.

A two-thirds “supermajority” would give Democrats the power to bypass Republican support to pass emergency legislation and put constitutional amendments on the ballot, among other privileges.

“It is important,” said Eric Bauman, vice chairman of the California Democratic Party, noting that there’s a certain level of “bragging rights” that come with the power as well. 

The vote tally changes daily as ballots are still being counted from the election earlier this month. Senate District 29 spans three counties: Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino.

There are around 92,000 ballots uncounted in Orange County, where the bulk of SD29 voters live.

County election officials must report final results to the state by December 9, which will certify the results by Dec. 16. 

Democrats are halfway there as the last barrier between them and a two-thirds majority in the Assembly officially crumbled on Tuesday, after the Associated Press determined Democrat Sabrina Cervantes had knocked off Republican incumbent Eric Linder in the Inland Empire.

But to completely enjoy the benefits of a supermajority, Democrats will have to win one more seat in the Senate as well, which means Democrat Josh Newman has to overcome a several thousand vote deficit against Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang.

Currently, Chang leads Newman by about 3,600 votes, a number that changes daily as ballots are still being counted. On Wednesday, Chang’s lead was around 5,000 votes.

The district is split between Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties, with Orange having the largest swath of voters. Orange County estimates that there are still 162,778 ballots left uncounted countywide out of 374,397 post-Election Day. 

To get a supermajority, Democrats needed to flip two seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate. Republican Assemblyman David Hadley was already deemed to have lost to former Democratic Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi in a Torrance-area district, which, along with Linder’s loss, gave Democrats the desired two-thirds in the Assembly.

If Chang falls too, Democrats would have the power to increase taxes, override gubernatorial vetoes (which rarely happens) and change legislative rules without Republican votes.

Poll: Republican gubernatorial candidates would perform well behind Democrat Newsom

Good morning. Happy Hump Day. Good news for California Republicans: In a field of nine candidates for the 2018 gubernatorial race, they have two of the top three names, according to a poll released Tuesday.

San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Ashley Swearengin, the termed-out mayor of Fresno, placed just behind Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom in a poll of registered voters taken prior to last week’s presidential election, conducted by The Field Poll and the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley. 

Newsom drew 23 percent to Faulconer’s 16 percent and Swearengin’s 11 percent, with six prominent Democrats trailing in the single digits. Although anything can change in politics, Faulconer said early this year that he won’t run for governor, and Tim Clark, a political consultant to Swearengin, told CalWatchdog on Tuesday he didn’t “expect her to run.”

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• “After weeks of fearing the worst, relief washed over vulnerable Republicans hoping to remain part of California’s congressional delegation. Despite a dogged effort by Democrats hoping to capitalize on Donald Trump’s unpopularity in the Golden State, their challengers fell short, leaving most — if not all — of the GOP’s few seats in incumbent hands.” CalWatchdog has more. 

• “Members of California’s largest public employee union have voted 92 percent in favor of a strike vote as its members seek new labor contracts with the state, the union announced Tuesday,” reports The San Jose Mercury News/AP. 

• “Four members of the Erotic Service Providers Union are asking to meet with Gov. Jerry Brown to deliver a petition with 24,000 signatures in support of decriminalizing sex work,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

• Republican Assemblyman Eric Linder has been defeated by Democratic challenger Sabrina Cervantes, giving Democrats an expected supermajority in the California Assembly. Linder was one of at least two GOP incumbents who lost after last week’s election. Assemblyman David Hadley of Torrance also was defeated,” reports The San Jose Mercury News/AP. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @MaraMara002

How much would a Democratic supermajority in Sacramento matter legislatively?

Good morning. Happy Election Day. There are so many storylines today, but the one we’re paying the most attention to is the balance of power in the California Legislature.

True, Democrats will still control the Legislature no matter what happens. But we’re interested in individual races, like Lopez/Bocanegra, and in how many women will get elected, particularly in the Assembly. The main thing we’re paying attention to is whether Democrats achieve a two-thirds “supermajority.” 

While that would be a major disaster for Republicans politically — if it were to happen — it would likely have little effect on the legislative process if recent history is any guide. 

In fact, most of the larger defeats over the last year or so have been due to intraparty fighting. It was mostly moderate Democrats who last year weakened landmark environmental legislation, SB350. This year, they struck again when they initially killed a measure expanding overtime protections for farmworkers.  

In those instances, the moderates formed a majority with Republicans, which means both share the blame (or praise). But while Republicans often get blamed, the truth is that there aren’t enough Republicans to block most votes. It was Democrats solely who twice sank a Democratic bill expanding parental leave — once by a Democratic majority on a policy committee (possibly due to a grudge) and then a revived version was vetoed by the Democratic governor, Jerry Brown.

Democrats need to flip two seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate to get a supermajority — and it’s possible. With a supermajority, Democrats would have the power to increase taxes, override gubernatorial vetoes (which rarely happens) and change legislative rules without Republican votes.

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news: 

• Here’s a rundown of the more competitive races we’ll be paying attention to.

• Just a reminder how important the U.S. Senate race is, at least from a cultural perspective.

• Non-election news: “Cal State students next year might see the first tuition increase system-wide in more than five years,” reports the San Bernardino County Sun. 

• “Air quality regulators are investigating metal-processing facilities in the city of Paramount after detecting a potent cancer-causing metal at 350 times normal levels,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December. 

Gov. Brown: 

• Voting this morning around 8:30 a.m. at the Boys and Girls Club, 1117 G Street, Sacramento, CA 95814

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mfleming

New follower: @nazmulislambd16

In fact, most of the larger defeats over the last year or so have been due to intraparty fighting. It was mostly moderate Democrats who last year weakened landmark environmental legislation, SB350. This year, they struck again when they initially killed a measure expanding overtime protections for farmworkers.  

In those instances, the moderates formed a majority with Republicans, which means both share the blame (or praise). But while Republicans often get blamed, the truth is that there aren’t enough Republicans to block most votes. It was Democrats solely who twice sank a Democratic bill expanding parental leave — once by a Democratic majority on a policy committee (possibly due to a grudge) and then a revived version was vetoed by the Democratic governor, Jerry Brown.  

What it takes

Democrats need to flip two seats in the Assembly and one in the Senate to get a supermajority — and it’s possible. With a supermajority, Democrats would have the power to increase taxes, override gubernatorial vetoes (which rarely happens) and change legislative rules without Republican votes.

Most bills require a simple majority, which means Democrats have more than enough votes most of the time. But a united bloc can be elusive in a state as large and diverse as California, where different members have different needs based on their districts.  

“Taxes and rules, that’s about it,” said Steve Maviglio, a prominent Democratic strategist in California. “And it’s rare that either party is a monolith. If Democrats win in competitive districts, they often will get a pass on tough votes anyway.”

They don’t always get a pass though. For example, Assemblywoman Cheryl Brown, an Inland Empire Democrat, faces tremendous opposition from a more liberal opponent in her re-election bid, largely due to votes that have riled environmentalists. Just as the opposing party tries to weed out incumbents in moderate districts, the more ideologically “pure” try to weed out centrists within the party.

The Democratic dividing line

The moderate caucus is mostly people of color, like Assemblywoman Brown. According to Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who specializes in Latino issues, economic issues will be the dividing line in the Democratic Party — between moderate Democrats of color in blue-collar districts and wealthy, coastal liberals (mostly white and particularly in the Bay Area), who have outsized influence over policy in the state.

For example, the farmworker overtime bill was largely supported by members along the coast, despite most of the farms being inland. The bill was killed in the summer by the Republican/Moderate coaltion, but enough moderates (and one Republican) switched to support in the last days of the legislative session. 

“There’s a growing economic argument that is going to be made as we grow poverty, as income inequality continues to divide, as housing affordability becomes more and more out of reach and as our education program continues to disproportionately hurt kids of color — all of these are major substantive policy issues, which are fundamentally about the economy — there’s a growing disparity between white progressives and moderate Democrats of color,” Madrid said. “That’s going to be the dividing line.”

Bad for Democracy?

If Republicans do get relegated to superminority status, their reduced role could have greater implications for the fate of Democracy. 

“It’s not good for the health of a two-party system, since it marginalizes Republican members of the respective chambers,” said Mark Petracca, chair of the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine. “This marginalization means less buy-in to the policy making process and can result in even greater political polarization.”

Opportunity for Republicans

No matter how many Republicans are left in the Legislature after Tuesday (after all, they may hold or pick up seats as well), there’s an opportunity to regain some influence over policy making. They can work with the moderate Democrats on issues like education reform and economic development and improvement, as the strength of the moderates is proportionate to the size of the Republican caucus. They need each other, at least on certain issues, according to Madrid. 

“But they’re going to have to get out of their ideological box and come up with new and better ideas that address a changing California,” Madrid said of Republicans.

Veto overrides

While a supermajority does give one party in the Legislature the power to override a gubernatorial veto, it’s not likely to happen, at least not while there’s a Democratic governor. According to the One Voter Project, Republicans did propose the last attempted veto override, in 2012, which failed. The last successful override was in 1979, when Jerry Brown was governor the first time.

State senator’s death doesn’t give Democrats supermajority

Good morning! It’s Friday, phew.

While the sudden death of a Republican senator Thursday morning seemingly gives Senate Democrats a two-thirds majority in the chamber, the state’s Constitution prevents it from having any effect, a Senate Rules Committee spokesman confirmed.

Sen. Sharon Runner died Thursday morning, ending a longtime battle with scleroderma — a condition that forced the Lancaster Republican from office in 2012 and required a double lung transplant that same year. Voters sent Runner back to the Senate in 2015 in a special election, but she decided not to run again in 2016.

Senate Democrats are one seat away from being in a supermajority — a two-thirds majority that would allow them to approve tax increases, gubernatorial veto overrides and constitutional amendments without Republican votes.

But staff of Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon, who also chairs the Rules Committee, confirmed that the threshold is a fixed number of votes (27) based on the number of seats (40), not the number of sitting senators (39). There are currently 26 Democratic senators.

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• “It wasn’t just generous spring rains filling north-state reservoirs that had California’s urban water districts pushing back so hard against mandatory water cuts this year. All those brown lawns and shorter showers have cost them millions in customer revenue,” writes The Sacramento Bee. 
• Thousands of incarcerated felons may soon be allowed to vote in California elections, reports the Los Angeles Times.
• After being placed under a three-year restraining order from his wife, being stripped of his committee assignments, and seeing six endorsers flee from his side in his run at Congress, Assemblyman Roger Hernandez is now feeling the pain in his pocketbook — he raised only $8,849 last quarter. The Los Angeles Times has more.  
• Teachers unions and the California Hospitals Assn. are very concerned with extending a tax on the rich that would benefit them — about $28 million worth of concern. The Los Angeles Times has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone ’til August.

Gov. Brown:

• On vacation.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @CA_FPPC @taseipel