Unfavorable opinions among voters of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton — the presumptive presidential candidates of the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively — create a do-or-die moment for Libertarians and the Green Party.

But the question is how high can they climb?

In California, probably not very high. But nationally, there’s a great opportunity to get a candidate’s name, party and message out there if they can reach 15 percent in the polls to make it to a debate. From there, ballot access is the main challenge.

The two main third-party candidates are Libertarian Gary Johnson, a former two-term governor of New Mexico, and Jill Stein, a Massachusetts physician and activist whose highest-held elected office was local, who will likely be the Green Party candidate.

Both were their parties’ nominees in 2012, but failed to gain any significant traction — Johnson won almost 1 percent of the popular vote and Stein won one-third of 1 percent. Neither won any states, which is still the biggest challenge for any third-party candidate (Johnson got 3.5 percent in New Mexico and outperformed Stein in Massachusetts). 

So why now?

It’s an open seat, so there won’t be a popular incumbent president, like Barack Obama was in 2012, to contend with.

Also, Americans widely dislike the two (presumptive) major party candidates outside of their core groups of supporters. According to the Real Clear Politics average, 61 percent of Americans see Trump — a Republican business and reality T.V. tycoon — unfavorably, while Clinton — the former first lady, former senator and former secretary of state — fares only slightly better at 55.5 percent unfavorable. “We have never had an election in which both major candidates were so unpopular — many people want to vote against Trump or Clinton without voting for the other,” said John J. Pitney, Jr., a Roy P. Crocker professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. “The third party option gives them the chance to register their disapproval without giving support to a candidate that they also despise.”

More than an emotional victory

The immediate goals for Libertarians in 2016 are securing ballot access in states and appearing on stage at the debates. Being on the debate stage alongside major party candidates would greatly affect how Americans see a third-party candidate — a victory in itself.

“But of course, you want to win,” said Janine Kloss, the executive director of both the Sacramento County Libertarian Party and the state party.

Kloss — who is awaiting the results of her write-in campaign for a Sacramento-area Assembly seat where a Democrat ran unopposed — noted that this election has proven anything can happen.

“We have someone under FBI investigation and someone who woke up one morning and decided he wanted to be president,” Kloss said.

Third-party candidates of yore

To gain traction, third party candidates usually need a major party candidate to fall apart. In 2006, Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic nomination in his Senate re-election campaign, but won the general as an independent because the Republican candidate collapsed. Bernie Sanders won his two Senate races in Vermont running as an independent because there was no Democratic challenger.

Jesse “The Body” Ventura was an exception to the trend. In 1998, the former pro wrestler beat two relatively strong candidates from the major parties by a narrow margin, winning the Minnesota governorship with 37 percent of the vote.

“They can be factors in a race, but winning is a different story and threshold,” said Nathan L. Gonzales, publisher and editor of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. “Our country is polarized and primed for the two major parties.”

Spoiler Alert

Often, strong third-party runs play a spoiler role for candidates, as Republicans were worried Trump would do earlier this cycle when they asked him to sign a loyalty pledge. In 1912, Bull Moose Party candidate Teddy Roosevelt stole (a lot) of votes from Republican Howard Taft, paving the way for Democrat Woodrow Wilson to become president.

Prominent segregationist George Wallace — the southern Democratic governor of Alabama who in 1968 ran as an American Independent — took a substantial amount of Electoral College votes from Hubert Humphrey in 1968 to help Richard M. Nixon become president.

Nixon actually had enough electoral votes to beat Humphrey without Wallace’s help, but Wallace still played a prominent role. And in a it’s-a-small-world way, Humphrey’s son was the Democratic-Farm-Labor candidate who lost the gubernatorial race to Ventura in Minnesota.

And Ross Perot, a Texas business man who ran twice as an independent, largely helped Bill Clinton, a Democrat, win the presidency from Republican George H.W. Bush in 1992 and then retain the presidency in 1996 against Republican Bob Dole.
In those races, Roosevelt received 27.4 percent of the popular vote, Wallace received 13.5 percent, and Perot received 18.9 percent and 8.4 percent. Roosevelt and Wallace won several states a piece, Perot won none.

“If more states allocated their Electoral College votes on some sort of proportional grounds, something Perot pushed for, then a third party ticket would be plausible,” said Mark Petracca, chair of the Department of Political Science at UC Irvine. “Right now only Maine and Nebraska have such an allocation scheme.”

Katy Grimes reported here at CalWatchDog.com on the protests against cuts in aid to college students. That means higher tuition — “fees” — to attend state colleges and universities.

Here’s an idea for how kids can cut the costs of going to college: Don’t go.

It’s a myth that going to college always leads to higher pay. Sometimes it does. If you want to be a doctor or lawyer, there’s no choice but to go to school for the better part of a decade.

But a degree in sociology or psychology or English is almost worthless. You end up with debt totaling maybe $50,000 and have wasted four years taking pointless classes between smoking reefers when you could have spent those precious years starting a career or a business — or getting married and having kids. And let’s face it, after Social Security and Medicare go broke, the only retirement security most people will have in 20 years or so will be their kids.

Do college people generally make more money? Yes, but that’s because they’re smarter in general. And smart people, in general, make more money. If the smart kids had skipped college, they’d still be smart at whatever else they did.

Look at Bill Gates and the late Steve Jobs. They dropped out to start computer companies now worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Would they have done better if they had gotten degrees in postmodern poststructuralism posteverything studies?

The Altucher Plan

One of my favorite bloggers is James Altucher. He’s written a couple of times against college. He has a new blog up about it, “Did Obama Really Say He Wants Everyone to Go to College?” He writes:

“There’s a weird debate happening out there. Apparently Rick Santorum “accused” Obama of insisting that every child go to college. Other websites have said that Obama has never said this but instead has encouraged every kid to seek a higher education. I don’t care about Obama or Santorum. I don’t care about politics at all. But it’s interesting to me how this issue has again sparked a debate.

“Expect lots of lies and cutting and stabbing for the next few months until the election. Santorum clearly lied. Obama lies. Everyone will lie about everyone else. Which is why I hate politics, why I think Congress should be abolished, and why I think Nobody should be voted in as President.”

You can see why I like this guy.

“And now suddenly, and sadly, ‘to go or not to go’ to college has become a political issue. Yet another pressure trying to ruin the lives of our children.

“Then a friend of mine, Kathryn Schulz, the author of the book ‘Being Wrong’ suggested that I am the ONLY person who thinks kids should not go to college. This is clearly not true: Peter Thiel and Seth Godin being some examples and there are many examples of successful people in the arts and business who did not go to college.”

Put me on the list.

Six Reasons

Altucher lists six more reasons not to go to college. A couple of them:

“over the past 40 years, college tuitions have gone up 10 times faster than inflation and three times faster than healthcare costs. Healthcare costs is an ongoing national debate. Why aren’t tuitions? Why should we force our 18 year olds now to take on so much debt. Its three times as high now as when I graduated college and I graduated with about $70k in debt that I had to pay back….

“Many will say it’s about learning. However, the tools for learning are so much more advanced now (because of the Internet) that there are cheaper, more effective solutions for education than ever before. And yet, more than ever, kids feel coerced into going to college.”

Right. The Internet provides all you need to learn something. For example, the Khan Academy provides, free, the best math course going, as well as numerous other free courses. He has more than 3,000 videos up — with thousands more to come.

“Does anyone learn anything in college? Let me ask you a couple of quick questions. At some point you came across these facts in either college or high school. See if you can answer quickly and correctly without looking it up. They are very simple: When was Charlemagne born? Name the different types of clouds? Who was William Mckinley’s Vice-President?”

OK. How’d you do, without looking anything up? My answers: I remember Charlemagne died in 814, but can’t remember the date of his birth. My guess: 750. Turns out it’s around 742. I think I learned that in high school. Clouds: I remember cumulous, but forget the rest. I learned that in 8th Grade Earth Sciences with Mr. Smith. That was in 1968 back before Earth Sciences became politically correct Global Warming Humans Are Evil Sciences. Here’s a list of clouds.

McKinley’s VP: Teddy Roosevelt. I probably read that on my own when I was maybe 10.

See? College is worthless.

“a college education will fill your memory. Teach you a lot of facts. Maybe teach you basic analysis that conforms with your teacher’s opinions. But will NOT teach you how to really think. Will not teach you how to come up with ideas. How to sell ideas. How to be creative. How to navigate through interesting experiences so you won’t get hurt.

“Let’s not forget that high school and below are primarily advanced babysitting services. So what makes college different? You’re still with the same demographic of people. You still have homework and tests and memorization of facts. The only difference is now you (most likely) live on your own. Is college the safest environment to do that? Is that the wisest use of the highest tuition costs ever? I doubt it.

“Learn how to learn. Then go wherever in the world you want to go. Because the world will be yours then.”

I like how Altucher always ends his blogs with zingers.

Bull Sessions

One more thing. What about one of the best things about college, bull sessions with your buddies? Here’s how to take care of that. Get together at somebody’s house with some of your smartest friends. Get some Jack Daniels and some cigars (or Virginia Slims if you’re women). I won’t encourage you do do doobies, but some of you might do that anyway.

Sit around and smoke, drink and talk about philosophy, history, English, movies, books, the Internet … whatever.

Total cost: $50. Cost of college: $200,000. Your savings: $199,950.

— March 6, 2012