Even with the historically low voter turnout, Democrats are expected to once again sweep all the major statewide races. The handful of propositions seem to be reruns of old fights — doctors vs. trial lawyers, insurance companies vs. Consumer Watchdog, tribe vs. tribe. In the state Legislature, the only question is whether Democrats claim a super-majority in both houses, and thus, have the power to raise taxes.

Here at CalWatchdog.com, we’ll be live-blogging this evening’s election results. With little mystery surrounding most of the results, what are some things we’ll be looking for?

1. The chessboard: How effective were party bigwigs with their targeting decisions?

It’s expensive to run for the California State Legislature, where Senate districts are larger than congressional districts. As we previously reported, the 65th Assembly District race between GOP Young Kim and Democrat Asm. Sharon Quirk-Silva is comparable with a governor’s race in New Hampshire. That means in order to compete, candidates need to raise large sums of money from Sacramento. Consequently, most of the targeting decisions for state legislative races are made by a small group of power-brokers in the political parties and legislative leadership in Sacramento.

But party leaders don’t always get the targets right. Good candidates on paper can turn out to be lazy, and more than a few oddballs put up a good fight. In addition to the supermajority threshold, we’ll be watching how well both parties allocated resources.

A few months ago, it looked like Republicans were walking away from Assemblyman Jeff Gorell’s Assembly seat. Sacramento rallied behind another GOP candidate in the primary and didn’t immediately embrace pastor Rob McCoy. Then, McCoy got some much-needed financial help from incoming Assembly Republican leader Kristin Olsen. Moderate Democrat Jacqui Irwin, who received more money, is favored to pick up this seat. She’s slightly behind in absentees (down 1 point), but the coastal independent voters should swing her way. McCoy’s ground operation has been strong, but he must account for a 3-point Democratic bump and 5-point GOP drop on Election Day. We’ll know whether Assembly Republicans were wise to invest limited resources in McCoy.

Incoming Assembly GOP leader Kristin Olsen

Conversely, Republicans largely ignored Republican Jack Mobley’s challenge to Assemblyman Adam Gray. A moderate Central Valley Democrat, Gray endeared himself to the state’s business community by occasionally delivering pro-business votes on hot-button issues. But he’s turning out to be a weak incumbent — so weak that Democrats have dropped more than $310,000 in Gray’s depleted campaign coffers.

If Assembly Republicans had targeted Gray earlier, he’d be headed for defeat. But the pro-business Democrat remained low on the priority pick-up list. Gray is the quintessential good-ol-boy like GOP state Sen. Anthony Canella. They even show up on mail together. So, what would be bad news for any other Democrat might not matter for Gray. In the last two weeks, Gray has received roughly a half-million dollars in campaign contributions in the last two weeks of the campaign, including late contributions from big business and big labor.

Gray only holds a margin advantage in absentee ballots. If this race is close, Republicans missed a big opportunity in Merced.

2. Good Ol’ Boys: Can the Asian American GOP women win in Orange County?

In conservative Orange County, a quartet of Asian American Republican women is running for office. “If the quartet runs the table,” writes former CA GOP Chairman and RNC Committeeman Shawn Steel, “it will be the most dramatic demographic change in the party’s elected leadership, and in the process, shatter conventional myths about the Grand Old Party.”

Steel’s wife, Michelle Steel, is running for supervisor in Orange County, technically a non-partisan position. The immigrant from South Korea currently is a member of the state Board of Equalization. She is running against Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, also a Republican.

In the 34th Senate district, OC Supervisor Janet Nguyen is expected to have a very good night against former Assemblyman Jose Solorio. Asian turnout is up, and 80 percent of the district’s Asian voters are Vietnamese. All of that is very good news for Nguyen, a first generation Vietnamese-American immigrant.

Young Kim, GOP candidate in 65th Assembly District

In the 65th Assembly race, Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva is behind in absentees, with numbers lower than 2012. Even a traditional 5-point bump from Election Day voters shouldn’t be enough to close the gap with Republican Young Kim, a first-generation Korean-American immigrant. Another good sign for Kim: Hidden in the absentee numbers are about 900 Democratic Koreans and 850 Independent Koreans that already voted by mail. Those 1,700 votes could be another 2-point boost for Kim, who is already likely ahead 9 points in absentees.

And in the 55th Assembly District race, Republican Ling-Ling Chang, a Taiwanese-American, is heavily favored in this strongly GOP district against Democrat Gregg D. Fritchle.

3. The GOP Blueprint: Does State Sen. Andy Vidak show how to win in a Democratic district?

On paper, Democrats should win the 14th State Senate race every time. Republican Andy Vidak scored an upset win in a 2013 special election. This year, turnout is actually higher than 2010 and almost as high as 2012, based on the absentee returns. Can Vidak really hold off a 16-point Democratic advantage in turnout and a nearly 50 percent Latino electorate? If he does, that’s a starting point for Republican success in California.

Similarly, Republicans have put substantial resources behind Downey Councilman Mario Guerra in a safe Democratic seat. Democrat Tony Mendoza should have an early lead, by roughly 8 points in absentees. If it’s close, Republicans can build here for the future.

4. CTA Brand: Is the teachers union banged in the state superintendent of public instruction and 15th Assembly races?

Democrat Tim Sbranti should be just fine tonight. He’s a Bay Area Democrat running in a solidly Democratic district. Historically, Republicans have struggled to win Bay Area races, even when the candidate is a moderate who matches the district. If Republican Catharine Baker keeps it close, it’s a good indication that the California Teachers Association’s image is suffering badly. The union has invested heavily in Sbranti, and become an issue in the campaign.

Same story in the race for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Incumbent Tom Torlakson, a strong support of the union, has benefited from a big IE from the union.

5. Top Down-Ticket Democrat: Which Democratic constitutional officer receives the highest vote total?

There’s talk that California’s aging U.S. Senators won’t seek reelection next time around. Gov. Jerry Brown won’t be able to run for a fifth term, leaving the state’s top positions open for the next generation of Democrats.

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris seem to get all the buzz. But we’d be willing to bet Controller John Chiang, who is seeking the job of state treasurer, pulls in the most votes of any statewide candidate after Brown. Chiang’s earned a reputation as an effective fiscal watchdog. In 1998, then-Controller Gray Davis polled in last place in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Al Checchi and Rep. Jane Harmon were the early favorites. But Davis won the primary, then the general election.

Chiang could be the darkhorse Democrat that becomes the next governor or U.S. senator.

In at least two instances, the Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee United Democratic Campaign has accepted large checks from influential state labor unions, but failed to report those contributions in a timely manner. The potential violations are easy to spot because the party’s disclosure reports for receiving funds don’t match the unions’ disclosure reports for giving money.

On Sept. 15, the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California PAC distributed $153,000 to various Democratic campaign committees. All of the contributions were reported on a late disclosure report, Form 497, filed on the same day with the Secretary of State’s office.

Among the contributions was a $25,000 check to the Santa Clara County Democratic Party. However, that contribution wasn’t reported by the Democratic central committee until Oct. 7, more than three weeks after it was sent. In the 90 days preceding an election, state law requires both parties in a campaign transaction of $1,000 or more to file a Form 497 disclosure report within 24 hours.

The $25,000 from the Construction Trades Council isn’t the only contribution filed late by the party. A second contribution of $34,000 from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, AFL-CIO (MPO) committee was disclosed by the union on Sept. 26, but not reported by the Santa Clara Democratic Party until Oct. 2, nearly a week late.

Ultimately, those funds helped fund two State Assembly candidates running in targeted seats. On Oct. 14, the Santa Clara County committee transferred $65,000 to Tim Sbranti and $25,000 to Ken Cooley. Both Democrats are running in competitive races and have relied on union money transferred through county central committees.

Santa Clara Democratic Party denies wrongdoing

The Santa Clara County Democratic Party has denied any wrongdoing, claiming it is in compliance with state law.

“The two contributions you referenced were received and reported timely and in compliance with all campaign finance rules and regulations,” said Steve Preminger, chairman of the Santa Clara County Democratic Party. “Both contributions were received directly by our accounting firm, Henry Levy and Co., and reported within 24 hours of receipt.”

When pressed for an explanation for the discrepancies, Preminger said, “I repeat that when a check is received, the proper filing takes place. It is that simple.”

It is logical that a recipient campaign committee will lag behind the contributor in filing a disclosure report. Checks must go through the mail and be processed by the campaign treasurer. In most circumstances, the processing time takes a few days.

Indeed, the other six campaign committees that received contributions from the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California on Sept. 15 reported the funds within 10 days. The Democratic Central Committee of Marin, Democratic Party of Mendocino County and Sacramento County Democratic Central Committee, which received checks from the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California, reported their $25,000 contributions on Sept. 18. Assemblyman Rob Bonta, who received $3,000 on the same transaction report, also reported the check on Sept. 18.

The Stanislaus County Democratic Central Committee claimed to have received the funds on Sept. 19, and thus, used the weekend to report its contribution on Sept. 22.

Only the Los Angeles County Democratic Party pushed the limits of “processing time” by reporting its $25,000 contribution on Sept. 24, nine days after the contribution was made.

Santa Clara County Democratic Party pattern of questionable campaign behavior

So, why did Santa Clara County Democrats wait three weeks to report their pass-through union contributions to Cooley and Sbranti?

The Santa Clara County Democratic Party has a history of testing the limits of campaign finance laws. Last year, San Jose Inside, the best independent news source in Silicon Valley, reported the county party “became the target of a FPPC investigation for coordinating with the South Bay Labor Council” to funnel money to Cindy Chavez’s campaign for county supervisor. The coordination was revealed “after identical mailers were sent out by each of the three entities,” according to San Jose Inside.

In recent weeks, the Fair Political Practices Commission has targeted several Republican legislative committees for questionable transfers between political party committees. Yet a spokesman for the state’s political watchdog said it is not currently investigating the Santa Clara Couny Democratic Party.

“If we are made aware of any discrepancies by the Secretary of State’s office, as does happen, or if anyone files a complaint, then we will look into the matter,” said Jay Wierenga, FPPC communications director.

Maybe that complaint could come from Santa Clara County Democrats. After all, Santa Clara Democratic central committee members routinely decry “money in politics.”

“I gave a well-attended talk on how money in politics is the single biggest obstacle to legislation dealing with the climate crisis,” Craig Dunkerley, a member of the Santa Clara County Democratic Central Committee, wrote in a recent post on the party’s blog. “Being on a train gave rise to the useful metaphor of parallel tracks, representing the need to work on fixing the money-in-politics problem along with whatever else anyone in the audience might rate as their #1 priority.”

Mismatched Reports: State Building and Construction Trades Council

Mismatched Reports: AFSCME

Hawaii is further along the road to being a one-party state than California. Its state Senate — where Kouchi is now vice president — has only one Republican. Oahu businessman Sam Slom is Senate minority leader, minority whip and minority rank-and-file all in one. To make sure a Republican voice is occasionally heard, he’s on all 14 Hawaii Senate committees.

But a lot of these Hawaii Dems are Kouchi-esque Southern Dems ready to hear out business and not reflexively back unions.

An influx of unpredictable ‘Southern Dems’

Something like this may be happening in California as well. It may only be a trickle, but it does seem to me that there are more moderate and somewhat unpredictable Dem lawmakers in Sacramento than at any point since Gov. Pete Wilson left town 15 years ago. Dan Walters’ Sac Bee column gets to this point:

“Unions remain California Democrats’ most important constituency, and will be indefinitely, but there are some indications that union hegemony within the party may be fraying.

“The most public example is the complex, multifront battle that pits the state’s union-dominated education establishment against civil rights and reform groups over the direction of public schools. It’s essentially a Democrat vs. Democrat battle, waged within big-city school boards, in the Legislature, in the state Board of Education and in the courts. …

“Unions may also be losing some of their hegemony in legislative elections, as business groups increasingly play in Democratic politics.

“In 2012, two Democrats, Marc Levine of San Rafael and Richard Bloom of Santa Monica, defeated union-backed Assembly incumbents, and several others bested Democratic union-backed rivals for open seats.

“This year, Steve Glazer, Brown’s 2010 gubernatorial campaign manager who advised the California Chamber of Commerce on 2012 races, is running for the Assembly in Contra Costa County as an outspoken critic of unions. His chief rival, Dublin Mayor Tim Sbranti, has heavy union support.

“A few nonunion Democrats would not seem to be a big deal, but it makes a significant difference when leaders want supermajorities to pass tax increases, constitutional amendments and other union-backed measures requiring two-thirds votes.”

Fracking showdown a good test case for alleged Dem moderation

This analysis can be taken too far. Bloom, for example, looks like a classic hard-left CA Democrat with his bid to punish SeaWorld for its treatment of orcas solely because of a controversial and highly disputed documentary.

But we’ll soon have a good test case for whether some of CA’s elected Dems have moderated: Will they back billionaire enviro Tom Stever’s push to block fracking? If they care at all about trying to create middle-class jobs, of course they will.

We shall see.