Signaling he’s very likely to run for president, Bay Area hedge fund billionaire and progressive activist Tom Steyer has begun searching for key aides to help him as he seeks the 2020 Democratic nomination.

A recent Linked-In ad was traced by the New York Times to Steyer’s nascent campaign. ”A high profile political campaign based on the West Coast is seeking highly skilled political professionals to join our national campaign team,” it said. The ad sought state directors for New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina – the next three primary and caucus states after Iowa kicks off the nomination process with caucuses on Feb. 3, 2020. A Steyer aide confirmed to the Times that he was responsible for the posting.

Steyer, 60, a former Yale soccer team captain who became a Californian after enrolling at the Stanford graduate business school, had a relatively low-key role in state and national politics until 2012. That’s when he handed over many of his financial responsibilities and began aggressively advocating for bolder environmental programs, among other causes.

‘Need to Impeach’ campaign raises national profile

This year, Steyer’s national profile has shot up after he spent at least $40 million on a “Need to Impeach” cable and online campaign in which he stars in advertisements criticizing the conduct of President Donald Trump. The campaign has gathered more than 6 million signatures in an online petition urging Congress to remove the Republican Trump.

Steyer could be competing for the nomination against as many as three other California Democrats: Sen. Kamala Harris, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and Rep. Eric Swalwell of the East Bay area near San Francisco.

Harris has by far the highest national profile of the three, having won headlines as a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee during the confirmation hearing of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. In online prediction markets, Harris, Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have all been the leader to win the nomination at various points over the past two months.

Harris 5th in first CNN survey of Iowa Democrats

Harris didn’t fare as well in the first CNN/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa Democrats released over the weekend. Former Vice President Joe Biden led with 32 percent, Sanders was next with 19 percent, O’Rourke had 11 percent, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren had 8 percent, with Harris in fifth at 5 percent.

But the former San Francisco district attorney can take solace in two facts. The first is that polls before the Iowa caucuses have a history of swinging wildly, and there is still more than 13 months until voting. The second is that African American candidates tend to do better in more diverse states than Iowa, which is 91 percent white.

While Illinois Sen. Barack Obama won the 2008 caucuses with 38 percent of the vote, that was among his 10 worst showings in primaries and caucuses as he went on to win the nomination. In 1988, civil-rights activist Jesse Jackson got 8.8 percent of the Iowa caucus vote versus the 29.4 percent he got in the overall Democratic nomination process as the runner-up to the nominee, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. Jackson only fared worse in two other states.

In the Register-CNN poll, Steyer and Swalwell got 1 percent each. Garcetti was at 0 percent, receiving the fewest votes of any of the 20 listed Democratic candidates.

California Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León’s decision to challenge the 2018 re-election bid of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a fellow Democrat, for not being sufficiently liberal in the Trump era is beginning to look more serious.

A poll released last week by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley found Feinstein leading de León 41 percent to 27 percent among likely voters. The remaining 32 percent of respondents said they would not support either candidate or were undecided. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll released in early November had shown Feinstein crushing de León, 58 percent to 31 percent.

After the UC Berkeley poll was released, Feinstein reversed her position on whether to support a continuing resolution funding the federal government that ended up being approved by Congress over the weekend. Her initial support for the measure triggered scathing criticism from some Democrats because the resolution did not address the fate of the nearly 800,000 young men and women who enjoyed some legal protections under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program created by President Barack Obama’s 2012 executive order. President Donald Trump ordered the cancellation of the program in September, effective in March, giving Congress a six-month window in which to make DACA part of U.S. law.

De León was the harshest critic of all, telling Feinstein “don’t came back to California” without doing much more to help DACA beneficiaries, known colloquially as “Dreamers.”

Feinstein’s flip-flop was covered in depth by the Washington Post, which concluded the 84-year-old and 25-year Senate veteran “is facing the most credible primary challenge of any Democrat up for re-election next year.”

The Post report included an interview with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas, the Berkeley progressive activist with a large following in California and nationally.

“By dragging her feet and reinforcing the notion that she was either indifferent or outright hostile to the plight of the Dreamers, Feinstein just gave de León a much-needed opening,” Moulitsas told the Post. “It just reminded core Democrats that we can’t count on Feinstein to do the right thing without having to pressure her to do so. In California, we should be able to count on our senators to automatically do the right thing.”

Is Steyer the real beneficiary of Democrats’ coolness to incumbent?

But two other recent analyses in California newspapers question the idea that de León has made significant gains.

A piece by the Bay Area News Group’s Casey Tolan reacting to the IGS poll suggested its biggest winner “might be somebody whose name wasn’t even part of the survey: Tom Steyer, the Democratic mega-donor behind a high-profile President Trump impeachment campaign who has been considering jumping into the race for months.”

Sonoma State political science professor David McCuan told Tolan that “the high number of undecided voters and Feinstein’s anemic numbers could be a big motivator for Steyer and other candidates. … She should be farther ahead. Someone outside of politics has to be encouraged to at least test the waters.”

But syndicated columnist Tom Elias noted the potential for Feinstein to be saved by the state’s “jungle primary” reform, in which the top two finishers in the primary advance to the general election regardless of party. Feinstein could lose more than half of Democrats next November and still coast to victory on the strength of Republican and independent voters who don’t want a Bernie Sanders-style progressive representing California in the U.S. Senate.

Whatever happens in coming months, Feinstein seems unlikely to have as easy a time getting re-elected as she did in 2012. That year, she defeated Republican Elizabeth Emken 62.5 percent to 37.5 percent, drawing 3.1 million more votes than her GOP foe.

Overall, 44.3 percent of registered voters believe California is on the right track, and 55.7 percent believe it’s on the wrong track. The poll also shows that criticism of the recent gas tax hike may resonate at the ballot box. Of registered voters surveyed, only 45.8 percent would keep the gas tax, while 54.2 percent want it canceled.

Here are a few other insights from the poll:

Newsom strong favorite for governor

Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom currently has a commanding lead in the race to replace Gov. Jerry Brown, with 31.1 percent of voters backing him. Former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles Antonio Villaraigosa is in second with 20.7 percent of the vote, and Assemblyman Travis Allen leads the Republican field with 15 percent. Rounding out the top five is Democratic Treasurer John Chiang with 12 percent and Republican businessman John Cox with 11.4 percent.

However, despite the majority of registered voters believing the state is on the wrong track, a slim majority of 50.4 percent would like their next governor to continue Brown’s policies, with 49.6 percent wanting a change.

Feinstein re-election likely

In a two-way race between Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein and Democratic State Senate President pro Tem Kevin de Leon, 58.2 percent would support the incumbent senator while 31.4 percent would support de Leon. In a three-way race between Feinstein, de Leon and progressive businessman Tom Steyer, the figures are, respectively, 49.7 percent, 24 percent and 17.2 percent.

Californians at odds with Trump

Only 22.3 percent of the state approves of the job President Trump is doing, with 66.2 disapproving. In comparison, Gov. Brown has a net approval of 44.6 percent, with 34.9 disapproving. When it comes to his administration, the president fairs a bit better: 25.8 percent agree with some or all of his policies and 61.2 percent disagree with some or all of them.

Consequently, when asked if their member of Congress should work with the president whenever possible, only 46.7 percent said yes, with the remainder wanting their representatives to never cooperate.

Immigration has broad support

When asked about those who come to America without a visa or overstay one, 64.4 percent believe they strengthen the economy, while 39.6 percent believe they take jobs from citizens. Only 35.9 percent believes this population increases crime, while an overwhelming majority – 64.1 percent – believe these people help revitalize cities. Just 20.5 percent believe they come for a handout, while 79.5 percent believe they want to work.

Finally, when it comes to policy, 60.1 percent of registered voters do not want California to cooperate with the president’s immigration policies while 39.9 percent want the state to cooperate.

Veteran California Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s bid for re-election could prompt a challenge from a second fellow Democrat – San Francisco hedge fund billionaire turned activist Tom Steyer – who also believes she’s insufficiently opposed to President Donald Trump.

California Senate President Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles, has campaigned across the state in the month since announcing he would challenge Feinstein, who at 84 is the oldest U.S. senator and who has been blasted by progressives for saying in August that it was possible Trump might end up being a “good president.”

On Thursday, de León, who is 50, won the endorsement of four Democratic supervisors in Feinstein’s home town of San Francisco – Jane Kim, Hillary Ronen, Aaron Peskin and Norman Yee.

That came four days after the Sacramento Bee posted a scathing piece by columnist Marcos Bretón that declared that white San Francisco Democrats acted as gatekeepers blocking the ascension of talented Latinos like de León.

“For all the self-congratulatory proclamations of California as a progressive haven, the state is not as cool as it thinks it is,” Bretón wrote. “The traditional paths to power in California have been closely guarded by a Bay Area pecking order heretofore off-limits to Latino candidates.”

National TV ad sends name recognition soaring

But Steyer is coming off an even better month than de León – thanks to an unprecedented political maneuver that’s sent his name recognition soaring and prompted excitement from progressives.

Steyer paid for a $10 million national ad buy for a commercial in which he personally urges Americans to support his effort to impeach Trump.

“Donald Trump has brought us to the brink of nuclear war, obstructed justice, and taken money from foreign governments. We need to impeach this dangerous president,” he somberly intones in the ad.

Steyer, who is 60, told Politico on Thursday that more than 1.9 million Americans had signed his online petition calling for the president’s ouster and that he was so heartened by the response that he would spend another $10 million to air the ads.

While Steyer has also shown interest in running for governor next year or even president in 2020, leading a push for Trump’s impeachment seems an ideal start for a run against an incumbent Democratic senator accused of being soft on Trump.

Footage of the August event in San Francisco in which Feinstein made her remarks would make for potent primary attack ads in a state in which Democratic delegates at a May party convention gleefully chanted “F— Trump.”

That intense sentiment is hard to square with Feinstein’s remarks to a crowd at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco: “Look, this man is going to be president, most likely for the rest of this term. I just hope he has the ability to learn, and to change. And if he does, he can be a good president. And that’s my hope.”

Steyer’s impeachment push won him national attention even before his ad campaign began. An Oct. 11 New York Times story noted how the prolific Democratic fund-raiser had sent a letter to every congressional Democrat’s office and to the party’s Senate and House campaign committees urging them to make a pledge to impeach Trump central to their 2018 campaigns.

The story noted that while impeachment was very unlikely because of Republican control of Congress and the view of many Democratic leaders that it was an energy-sapping distraction, polling showed 70 percent of Democrats nationally backed impeachment.

The Times account also noted Steyer’s unsubtle dig at Feinstein in his letter: “It is clear for all to see that there is zero reason to believe ‘he can be a good president,’” as Feinstein said in August.

After SF rail system hack, concerns remain

Good morning! Lots going on today. Gov. Brown will introduce his budget this morning, while his nominee for attorney general, Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Los Angeles, receives his first hearing.

But beyond the day’s headlines, six weeks after some 900 computers used by the San Francisco Municipal Railroad were hacked with ransomware, many concerns remain about the incident — especially as coverage of U.S. cyber vulnerabilities has become more extensive than ever.

San Francisco’s light-rail system, known as Muni, faced an emailed demand from an unknown hacker that he be paid about $73,000 in bitcoins if it wanted to regain control of the computers.

Apparently in fear that more computers had been hacked than the ones displaying a message, “You Hacked, ALL Data Encrypted,” the transit agency shut off ticket machines and fare gates at rail stations from the morning of Friday, Nov. 25, through Sunday, Nov. 27, allowing passengers free rides that weekend.

The following Monday, Muni officials announced that not only had they not paid the ransom, they never even considered paying it, confident in their tech prowess. Many targeted companies and organizations feel they have no choice. Last April, the Hollywood Presbyterian Medical Center in Los Angeles paid nearly $17,000 in bitcoins to recover access to data that had been encrypted by hackers.

Federal and state security officials have kept mum about the attack since it happened.

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• “The powerful storms that soaked Northern California over the past week did more than trigger power outages, mudslides and flash floods. They sent roughly 350 billion gallons of water pouring into California’s biggest reservoirs — boosting their storage to levels not seen in years, forcing dam operators to release water to reduce flood risks and all but ending the five-year drought across much of Northern California, even though it remains in the south, experts said Monday.” The San Jose Mercury News has more. 

• “The fate of two of California’s four NFL teams should become much clearer this week. The Chargers have to decide by Sunday, Jan. 15, whether to exercise their option to share a $1.7 billion stadium being built in Inglewood by the Rams or to stay in San Diego despite voters’ sharp rejection of a Nov. 8 ballot measure to use an increase in the hotel room tax to contribute hundreds of millions of public dollars to build a billion-dollar-plus stadium in the city’s lively downtown.” CalWatchdog has more. 

• “President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the border will run into resistance in California, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an interview with The Golden State podcast. The state could sue under the California Environmental Quality Act or its federal equivalent, said Newsom, utilizing a common tactic to delay or kill all sorts of development projects around the state.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• “Backers of a recent tobacco tax initiative ballot have agreed to pay a $2,500 fine for failing to identify that billionaire Tom Steyer was a major funder of the campaign in a YouTube video that urged voters to support the measure, according to documents released Monday.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

Legislature:

• Assembly will hold 9 a.m. hearing on the appointment of Rep. Xavier Becerra to state attorney general.

Gov. Brown:

• Unveiling the proposed state budget today at 11 a.m. in Sacramento. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @RareCat

Clinton leads CA by a mile

Good morning. It’s Thursday and in the spirit of getting through to the weekend, we’ll give a quick rundown of today’s news and happenings.

Here’s something that should come as no surprise: Hillary Clinton has twice as much support as Donald Trump in California, according to a new poll. A 26-point lead. The San Francisco Chronicle has more.

But here’s something you may not have known: Hollywood’s stars are often quick to lend their name to causes, but not always so quick to give their money. Of course, some open their wallets. Robert Downey Jr. and his wife each gave $35,000 to Prop. 57, Gov. Jerry Brown’s parole measure. The Sacramento Bee has more.  

One of the most endangered legislative incumbents, Assemblyman David Hadley, R-Torrance, has been ordered by a Sacramento judge to explain why he hasn’t fully cooperated with a political ethics investigation. This South Bay seat is one of a handful that will decide if Democrats get a two-thirds “supermajority” in the legislature. Capital Public Radio has more. 

Speaking of donors, the Bay Area’s Tom Steyer — the largest donor in the country — is now the largest donor to the $2-per-pack tobacco-tax increase after giving $3.5 million to the cause on Tuesday. The potential gubernatorial candidate has now spent $11.3 million on Prop. 56, including in the primary. The Los Angeles Times has more.

And totally unrelated to the election, San Diego’s City Council will consider banning Airbnb and other short-term rentals, reports The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Legislature:

• Gone till December.

Gov. Brown: 

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @mamaloney 

State watchdog agency pushes for licensing reform

Good morning. Since it’s only Tuesday, we’ll start with a dose of bipartisanship to inch us closer to the weekend.

One of the rare issues where politicians on the left and right increasingly agree involves occupational-licensing requirements – the oftentimes cumbersome government-approval processes that many workers must go through to become certified to work legally in their profession.

Both sides have come to recognize that excessive rules limit employment opportunities for the poor, quash economic development and force people into the underground economy.

Advocates for reform don’t argue against training and regulations per se, but they recognize that it’s unnecessary to, say, force African-style hair braiders to spend thousands of dollars and go through hundreds of hours of traditional barbershop training when the hair treatment they provide has nothing to do with the certification they receive.

There’s broad understanding that people within existing professions often impose unnecessary barriers to entry as a way to reduce competition and artificially inflate wages. Defenders of the system say the rules are needed, however, to protect health and safety.

California’s independent state oversight agency, the Little Hoover Commission, this month released a report on licensing barriers that could serve as a blueprint for the state Legislature when it returns to session in January.

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• “Lawsuit filed Friday by a San Diego deputy city attorney claims a supervisor has been sexually harassing her for three years, including telling her to keep quiet about getting harassed previously by former Mayor Bob Filner,” reports The San Diego Union-Tribune. 

• “Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Monday that billionaire activist Tom Steyer is already ‘spending a fortune’ on the 2018 race for governor of California, despite not having declared his candidacy. ‘He’s running. He’s been running,’ said Newsom, who has announced he plans to run.” Politico has more. 

• “A proposition to legalize pot raises DUI concerns,” reports the Los Angeles Times.

• “More than half of voters on both sides of the aisle say the 2016 presidential race is a major source of stress, according to a report just released from the American Psychological Association. There are even physical reactions — headaches, spikes in blood pressure, stomachaches, sleep loss,” reports The San Jose Mercury News. 

Legislature:

• Gone ’til December. 

Gov. Brown:

• In Palm Springs for an 11 a.m. memorial service for Palm Springs Police Department Officers Jose Gilbert Vega and Lesley Zerebny.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @jfwildermuth

Top Democratic donor  Tom Steyer considered for Cabinet position

Good morning. Have a good Tuesday! We start this morning with someone else’s story — but it’s a good story.

“Tom Steyer, the billionaire climate activist and possible candidate for California governor, was under consideration to become President Barack Obama’s first energy secretary, according to a hacked email exchange released Monday by WikiLeaks.”

“John Podesta, an Obama transition adviser and now chairman of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, included Steyer’s name for the Cabinet post in September 2008 correspondence,” but Steyer was passed over.

“Emails from 2012, also disclosed by WikiLeaks, showed Podesta discussing a planned meeting between Steyer and former President Bill Clinton. Podesta wrote in the exchange that he would try to push Steyer to support the Clinton Foundation.”

“The praise heaped on Steyer, a major Democratic donor, by one of Clinton’s top advisers is being scrutinized for its political ramifications in California. Should Clinton win next month, she may look to Steyer for a Cabinet position, giving him direct White House policy experience and a formal title as he mulls a run for governor.”

The Sacramento Bee has more. 

In other news:

• “Climate change from human activity nearly doubled the area that burned in forest fires in the American West over the past 30 years, a major new scientific study has found, and larger, more intense fires are all but guaranteed in the years ahead,” writes The San Jose Mercury News. 

• “If Prop. 55 passes, the state budget will rely even more on California’s highest earners,” reports the Los Angeles Times. (Many budget experts think this is a troubling trend.)

• The always-zigging-when-others-are-zagging Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa, called “GOP leaders ‘gutless’ for bailing on Trump.” The Orange County Register has more.

• “Over the past four decades, (actor Mike Farrell), who has wielded his celebrity to bring attention to social and political issues in Central America, the Middle East and Africa, has become a leading voice against the death penalty. This year, he is the author of a ballot measure that seeks to end capital punishment in California. For Farrell, the cause has taken precedence over others because at its root, he says, is the idea that some people are dispensable.” The Los Angeles Times has more.

Legislature:

• Gone ’til December. 

Gov. Brown: 

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @RunGomez

CA airports beef up security after Istanbul attacks

Good morning! 

The attack in Istanbul on Tuesday that left at least 42 people dead and another 239 injured “exposed the vulnerability of public areas of airports outside screening checkpoints,” writes The San Bernardino County Sun.

“And Southern California airports, gearing up for a potentially record-setting Fourth of July weekend, responded quickly to meet the threat by saturating terminal entrances with uniformed police officers and bomb-sniffing dogs.”

The Sun has more. 

In other news:

• After recent questions about his ethics, is Eric Bauman — the clear frontrunner to be the next chair of the California Democratic Party — vulnerable? The Sacramento Bee has more. 
• Top Democratic money man Tom Steyer is being coy about whether or not he wants to run for office. The Los Angeles Times has more. 
• “The ‘No Blank Checks Initiative’… would require a public vote on any state project in which $2 billion or more in revenue bonds would be issued. And since both the bullet train and twin-tunnels projects would most likely require that kind of financing, voters could ultimately get a chance to decide their fate,” writes The San Jose Mercury News.
• “CA Democrats line up to back marijuana legalization,” writes CalWatchdog. 

Assembly: 

• In at 9 a.m. Several hearings. 

Senate: 

• In at 9 a.m. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New Followers: @MattLaslo @ChosenLawyers

Good morning! 

If there was ever an opportunity for a third-party run, now would be it.

Unfavorable opinions among voters of both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton — the presumptive presidential candidates of the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively — create a do-or-die moment for Libertarians and the Green Party.

But the question is how high can they climb?

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• Since 2010, almost 1,000 police-issued firearms have been stolen, lost or who knows, according to The San Jose Mercury News. 
• “Democratic legislative leaders are suggesting the ‘Rainy Day Fund’ could help alleviate what Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration projects will be a $4 billion budget deficit in 2019 – even if there is no recession,” writes Capital Public Radio.
• Will Tom Steyer’s mega spending on behalf of Democratic priorities help him in a gubernatorial
  

  Tom Steyer

  run? The Los Angeles Times has more. (One of Steyer’s big issues is getting money out of politics — he spent $74 million in the 2014 cycle to spread his message.)
• And speaking of gubernatorial runs: Gavin Newsom, the lieutenant governor and candidate for governor in 2016, is fighting with Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León over who will get credit for stricter gun control laws as both have introduced competing plans. The Sacramento Bee has more.     

Assembly: 

• In at 1 p.m. Several hearings. 

Senate:

• In at noon. Full slate of hearings.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @LarrySabato @HannahNurrieum