That could wipe out half the $30 billion in liabilities that the state’s largest power utility feared it faces because of brutal wildfires linked to its power lines and transmission facilities over the past three years.

PG&E’s stock went up 75 percent after the Cal Fire report on Thursday before slipping 16 percent on Friday.

Former CPUC leader: Bankruptcy a ploy to win bailout

The ruling was cited in a Los Angeles Times analysis that questioned whether PG&E really needed to go into bankruptcy on Tuesday, as it had previously announced it would. Former California Public Utilities Commission President Loretta Lynch told the newspaper that the utility had “created this crisis” as part of a corporate strategy to scare the state Legislature into approving a sweeping bailout to minimize disruptions for its 16 million customers.

Yet Lynn’s view was at odds with several recent developments. Credit rating agencies only continued to see PG&E as in near-deathbed condition and last week, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the state’s other two investor-owned utilities – Southern California Edison Co. and San Diego Gas & Electric Co.

S&P said PG&E’s travails showed the risks that California utilities face because of “inverse condemnation” – a state law which says utilities are financially liable for damages from fires caused by their equipment even if the utilities had not been found negligent.

Meanwhile, PG&E’s contentious relationship with the federal judge overseeing its probation stemming from its six felony convictions in the 2010 natural gas pipeline disaster that killed eight people in San Bruno (pictured) took a sharp turn for the worse. There is relatively little precedent for federal judges to play such oversight roles in complex cases. This had led to speculation that San Francisco-based U.S. District Judge William Alsup might be cautious in drawing conclusions after announcing in late November that he was reviewing PG&E’s role in recent wildfires in Northern California. Alsup was seen as lacking the background and experience of agencies like the CPUC and Cal Fire to evaluate the utility’s claims and evidence from wildfire sites.

Instead, the judge has already issued a preliminary ruling directly asserting that PG&E’s failure to properly insulate power conductors contributed to fire disasters in Northern California over the last two years, including the November blaze in Butte County that killed at least 85 people. A hearing is scheduled in Alsup’s courtroom Wednesday on his ruling, which could lead to the judge ordering PG&E to broadly upgrade its transmission equipment.

PG&E: Rates could go up five-fold

The San Francisco Chronicle reported last week that PG&E officials believed that compliance with a far-reaching Alsup order “could cost between $75 billion and $150 billion, requiring a one-year rate hike – at the low end of the spectrum – of more than five times current rates in typical bills.”

In its formal response to Alsup’s tentative ruling, PG&E indirectly questioned his expertise. The utility wrote that it is “committed to working aggressively and expeditiously with state and federal officials on system maintenance and upgrades and on wildfire mitigation efforts.”

“But the path forward to mitigating wildfire risk is best designed not through probation conditions, but rather through careful coordination with state and federal regulators, after appropriate consultation with other interested parties, based on the best science and engineering advice, with policy analysis that accounts for the full range of important but often conflicting social goals,” PG&E concluded.

State Sen. Jerry Hill, D-San Mateo, told the Bay Area News Group that he welcomed Alsup’s actions.

“A federal judge is actually saying things and hopefully will do something about the lack of maintenance at PG&E,” he said. “No one else has required that.”

Hill, whose district includes San Bruno, has long ripped the state Public Utilities Commission for what he sees as lax oversight of PG&E.

Pacific Gas & Electric – the giant investor-owned utility that serves 16 million Californians – appears to be facing its gravest crisis since its founding in 1905.

The initial indications that PG&E’s equipment may have sparked the Camp Fire that killed at least 88 people in Butte County – the deadliest blaze in state history – initially led at least some state lawmakers to consider new legislation to try to insulate PG&E from potentially devastating liabilities. Earlier this year, the Legislature passed and Gov. Jerry Brown signed into law a measure that lets PG&E spread out the costs from 17 Northern California wildfires in 2017 and have its customers pay some of its bills.

The Bloomberg news service reported that Assemblyman Chris Holden, D-Pasadena, may introduce legislation to help PG&E in coming days.

But a federal judge and the president of the California Public Utilities Commission have shaken PG&E’s hopes that it can avoid crushing new blows.

Judge demands answers on PG&E, Camp Fire

U.S. District Judge William Alsup has ordered PG&E to provide evidence proving its negligence didn’t cause the Camp Fire – raising the prospect that the utility could be found guilty of violating the terms of its five-year criminal probation that began in January 2017.

The probation was imposed then by U.S. District Judge Thelton Henderson – along with the maximum possible fine of $3 million – after PG&E was convicted of six felonies related to the 2010 San Bruno disaster (pictured above). A PG&E natural gas pipeline that was found to have been poorly maintained exploded, killing eight, injuring more than 50 and wiping out 38 homes. The utility was convicted of five felonies for failing to keep the pipeline safe and a sixth felony for impeding investigators.

Judge Alsup was assigned to monitor PG&E’s probation. In a statement, Alsup said his goal was determining what “federal, state or local crimes might be implicated were any wildfire started by reckless operation or abandonment of PG&E power lines” or “inaccurate, slow or failed reporting of information about any wildfire.” If Alsup concludes that PG&E violated its probation, the utility could face unprecedented punishment from the judge.

Two days after Alsup’s announcement, CPUC President Michael Picker said he had concerns about whether PG&E’s “culture” had enough of a commitment to public safety. At a CPUC board meeting in San Francisco, the utility was ordered to implement 60 safety recommendations from a commission consultant.

Picker’s critique came less than two weeks after he stuck up for PG&E, challenging the idea that the Camp fire could or should put the utility into bankruptcy. “It’s just not good policy,” Picker told the San Francisco Chronicle. “It doesn’t work out.” This stabilized PG&E’s stock price.

The new tone from Picker was a departure from the normally close relationship between the CPUC and PG&E.

Those who have called for the CPUC to be reformed and to be much tougher with the utilities it oversees often cite the $1.6 billion “fine” the utility commission levied in 2016 on PG&E for the San Bruno disaster. More than half of the fine – $850 million – was actually a requirement that the utility upgrade its natural gas pipeline system.

Critics said this amounted to likening the improvements that PG&E had to make to a penalty.

Picker joined in the 4-0 CPUC board vote for the “fine.”