“Duncan Hunter’s Indictment in California Opens the Door for a Long-Shot Challenger,” was the headline on a New York Times analysis by veteran political reporter Adam Nagourney.

“Hunter’s scandals make his once-safe Republican district competitive,” declared a Vox piece written by Tara Golshan.

But the idea that California’s 50th Congressional District – which covers much of east and north San Diego County and south Riverside County – might be in play seemed far more plausible to East Coast media outlets than to media in Southern California.

That’s because the district is as solidly Republican as any in California. Republicans hold a 15-percent registration edge over Democrats, Donald Trump won the district by the same amount in 2016, and in the June primary, Democrats only got 36 percent of the vote – even though stories about Hunter’s profligate spending of campaign funds had been in the news for more than two years.

Opponent may be hard sell in pro-Trump district

It’s also because of Hunter’s young, inexperienced opponent – 29-year-old Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former U.S. Labor Department spokesman. While the first-time candidate has so far slightly out-raised Hunter in campaign donations, his background may make him a uniquely hard sell in a district known for its ardent support of Trump. Campa-Najjar is the son of an Arab father and a Mexican-American mother – and, as Fox News and other conservative outlets emphasized, the grandson of one of the terrorists who helped plan the killing of 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany.

Campa-Najjar, a Protestant, told a reporter for The Independent newspaper of London that he was confident district voters would recognize the irrelevance of the issue. “[W]hen it comes to my distant relative – who died 16 years before I was born – he influenced my thinking as much as he did yours, which is not at all,” he said. “I knew him as much as you did. So it really is kind of a non-sequitur. It plays on xenophobia and distorting facts and it really has no bearing.”

Campa-Najjar told the San Diego Union-Tribune that his “ethnic background is not a liability, it’s an asset,” citing the large number of Chaldeans and Latinos in the 50th.

Nevertheless, in a Survey USA poll released Monday, Hunter held a 47 percent to 39 percent lead over Campa-Najjar. But the subcategories of the poll point to the obstacles facing the challenger. Hunter received a surprising 41 percent of the vote among independents. The 23 percent of Republicans who now say they won’t back him could consolidate behind the five-term incumbent – especially as the prospect of Democrats retaking the House is emphasized by the media in the run-up to the November vote.

Hunter’s claim that he is the victim of a Justice Department plot led by prosecutors who were donors to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign resonated with many voters. Among decline-to-state voters, 41 percent said they believed the Hunter indictment was political; 64 percent of Republicans held that view.

Hunter, a former Marine, was the first member of Congress to have served in the military in both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. He succeeded his father in 2008, who had represented eastern San Diego County in the House since his 1980 election.

All eyes on SoCal state Senate race

Good morning! TGIT. Just to piggy back on one thing we wrote yesterday, the only thing standing in the way of a Democratic supermajority in the Legislature is one Southern California Senate seat. 

Democrats are halfway there as the last barrier between them and a two-thirds majority in the Assembly officially crumbled on Tuesday, after the Associated Press determined Democrat Sabrina Cervantes had knocked off Republican incumbent Eric Linder in the Inland Empire.

But to completely enjoy the benefits of a supermajority, Democrats will have to win one more seat in the Senate as well, which means Democrat Josh Newman has to overcome a few thousand vote deficit against Republican Assemblywoman Ling Ling Chang.

Currently, Chang leads Newman by about 2,600 votes, a number that changes daily as ballots are still being counted. On Wednesday, Chang’s lead was around 5,000 votes.

The district is split between Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties, with Orange having the largest swath of voters. 

Orange County estimates that there are still 162,778 ballots left uncounted countywide out of 374,397 post-Election Day. 

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news:

• “Federal election officials on Wednesday released an accounting from GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter itemizing dozens of apparently personal outlays by the congressman’s campaign — expenses he has now reimbursed to the tune of $60,000. The list resembles a suburban family budget including utilities, a dentist, a nail salon, Albertsons, Costco, Walmart, Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Trader Joe’s and Abercrombie & Fitch — and also 32 airline transactions, a hotel in Italy and the Arizona Grand Resort.” The San Diego Union-Tribune has more. 

• “When Nancy Pelosi travels from her home in San Francisco to her job in Washington as House Democratic leader, she flies over millions of voters whom Democrats relied on for decades but who rejected the party this year. The Democrats’ shellacking in the election — below-expectations gains in the House plus the White House loss and minimal wins in the Senate — produced party grumbling that the 76-year-old California liberal may not be the best messenger to lead those once-core Democratic voters back into the fold.” The San Jose Mercury News/AP has more. 

• “When the California State Senate convenes next month, Sen. Connie Leyva, D-Chino, says that she plans to introduce legislation to ban all registered sex offenders from school campuses without exception,” reports the Los Angeles Times. 

• “CalPERS on Wednesday declared that the Sierra County town of Loyalton has defaulted on its debt to the giant pension fund, a move that means the state is poised to scale back retirees’ pension benefits,” reports The Sacramento Bee. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @ChaseNYurFace

Good morning. TGIF. A new poll out this morning suggests that voters will likely approve many of the 17 measures on the ballot. Of the 10 polled by the Field Poll/UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, voters appear ready to approve at least seven.

Included among those poised to pass is recreational marijuana. CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• Important election data point: “The U.S. economy added a less-than-expected 161,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent as investors got to digest the final payrolls report before Tuesday’s presidential election.” CNBC has more.

• Drought improving? “A rainy October in Northern California has lifted about a quarter of the state out of drought conditions, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported Thursday. It’s the rosiest picture released by federal officials since the spring of 2013, when about 64% of the state was considered to be in “moderate drought” — or worse.” The Los Angeles Times has more. 

• Two top Assembly races: “Millions of dollars in outside money is pouring into two high-profile Assembly races in San Bernardino County, state records show.” The San Bernardino County Sun has more. 

• Just in time: “Congressman Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine, says he will repay $49,000 to his campaign account after months of revelations that he used the fund for personal expenses.” The San Diego Union-Tribune has more. 

Legislature:

• Gone till December. 

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New follower: @sseekatz

Law curbing labor abuses abroad not working well

Good morning. TGIF. On the day after Gov. Jerry Brown signed ambitious climate change legislation, we’re reminded that laws don’t always work as planned.  

A statute passed by California lawmakers in 2010 to stem labor abuses abroad has been of meager help in policing tech giant Apple, a group that studies labor abuses in China claims.

The California Transparency in Supply Chains Act, heralded by political leaders as a measure to police poor working conditions in companies doing business in California “has little influence on the labor conditions of these suppliers” in China, Li Qiang, executive director of China Labor Watch, said in a statement to CalWatchdog. “As such, labor rights violations are still prevalent in these factories.”

A study released in late August from China Labor Watch reported that at the Shanghai, China, facility of Apple supplier Pegatron, “working conditions are terrible, and workers are subject to terrible treatment. Currently, Apple’s profits are declining … to mitigate the impact, Pegatron has taken some covert measures to exploit workers.”

CalWatchdog has more.

In other news:

• More about what that climate change legislation calls for and how it’ll work, from the Los Angeles Times. 
• And even more on climate change legislation: How California defines disadvantaged communities when deciding where to send funding for local environmental programs. The Sacramento Bee has more. 
• “Orange County Rep. Loretta Sanchez on Thursday condemned the burial of millions of pounds of nuclear waste on a San Onofre beach bluff and faulted her opponent in the race for the U.S. Senate for not fighting the controversial project,” writes The Orange County Register.
• “Rep. Duncan Hunter says he doesn’t want a new federal policy to stop companies from donating tobacco products — specifically cigars — to members of the military,” reports The San Diego Union-Tribune.

Bonus:

• Looking for a long weekend read? Molly Ball in The Atlantic on how the world of political consultants works… or doesn’t work. 

Legislature:

• Gone ’til December.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events announced.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @RobbySumner

• 

  Denise Cross / flickr

  Auto voter law to add millions to electorate, diversifies
• Legislature doin’ budget work
• How to become a pot tycoon
• No more low- and zero-emission car subsidies
• What’s going on with Rep. Hunter’s campaign finances?

Good morning! Welcome to Thursday.

California’s electorate could grow by more than 2 million voters once a new law implementing automatic registration through the DMV starts working in 2017, according to a new study.

The study, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, predicts that as voter registration increases, so will diversity in the electorate among underrepresented groups.

However, determining how much the electorate will grow largely depends on the rate with which eligible voters decline automatic registration at the DMV, according to the study. 

CalWatchdog has more.  

In other news:

• The Legislature approved a $170.9 billion budget on Wednesday “that increases some funding for social services but stashes more away in a rainy-day fund,” writes the Los Angeles Times.
• And on Thursday, the Legislature will consider bills that implement budget decisions. The Sacramento Bee has more. 
• The San Jose Mercury News has everything you need to know if you’re considering a career in the CA pot industry.
• State lawmakers are ending a program subsidizing individual purchases of low- and zero-emission vehicles. The Los Angeles Times has more. 
• Did Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine, pay for his kids’ school lunches with campaign funds? The San Diego Union-Tribune has more. 

Assembly:

• In at 9 a.m. 

Senate: 

• In at 9 a.m. 

Gov. Brown: 

• No public events scheduled.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @kjt231 @dfmworkers

Soda Tax just more revenue?

Good morning! Happy Monday.

What is being billed as a “common sense” ballot initiative to tax sodas one cent per ounce in Oakland has no hard requirement for how the money should be used. 

While advocates say it’ll fund programs fighting obesity-related public health problems, the lack of specificity in how the money will be spent raises questions about the city’s decades-long financial troubles. 

CalWatchdog has more. 

In other news: 

• The choice of Madeleine Albright — who served as the first female U.S. secretary of state — as a commencement speaker has caused a backlash at the all-woman Scripps College in Claremont, reports the Los Angeles Times. Some students have denounced her as a “war criminal,” while others oppose her position that “there’s a special place in hell” for women who don’t support Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.  
• While Republican legislative leaders have yet to endorse presumptive GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is holding out as well. According to The San Diego Union-Tribune, Faulconer doesn’t support the business tycoon’s “divisive rhetoric.”
• With CA Attorney General Kamala Harris looking increasingly likely to be the top vote getter in the primary for U.S. Senate, the real battle is for second place, reports Capitol Weekly. 
• More digging from The San Diego Union-Tribune into Rep. Duncan Hunter’s campaign finance disclosures show purchases of groceries and gas. While these are not entirely uncommon in campaign finance disclosures, they do raise red flags after the Alpine Republican purchased “video games, oral surgery, private school tuition, a garage door and unspecified items at a Coronado surf shop” with campaign funds. 

Assembly:

– In at 1 p.m. Packed Revenue and Taxation Committee hearing at 2:30 p.m. 

Senate:

– In at 2 p.m. Packed Appropriations Committee hearing at 10 a.m. 

Gov. Brown: 

– No public events scheduled. 

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com

Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp

New followers: @FreeVoterBlog @MattShupePR

Good morning!

The ACLU of Northern California and other groups are pressuring Solano County Superior Court to stop suspending the driver licenses of people who can’t afford to pay fines for infractions.

The ACLU and others would prefer the suspension of licenses stop altogether, but argue courts should at least determine if the driver has an ability to pay prior to any suspension.

Flashback: The groups pressured San Mateo County Superior Court last month. At that time, CalWatchdog asked ACLU staff the obvious question: Didn’t these drivers get themselves in this mess by getting cited in the first place?

“We can hold people accountable without also ruining their lives,” said Micaela Davis, staff attorney with the ACLU of Northern California, noting that losing the ability to drive limits the ability to work.

Calwatchdog has more.

In other news:

• It’s 4/20 — the unofficial day to smoke pot (or so we’ve read). The new pot czar of California, Lori Ajax, told The Orange County Register that marijuana businesses may soon rival booze businesses in California. That will certainly be a lot easier if recreation use becomes legal, and according to the LA Weekly, a ballot initiative to do just that is close to qualifying.

• After a big win in his home state of New York on Tuesday, business tycoon Donald Trump is surging in California. CalWatchdog has more.

• Five gun control measures advanced in the legislature on Tuesday, “including measures that would outlaw assault rifles with detachable magazines, ban possession of clips holding more than 10 rounds and require homemade guns to be registered with the state,” reports the Los Angeles Times.

• A new report on air quality suggests that 80 percent of Californians live in counties with unhealthy levels of ozone or particle pollution at some time during the year. However, many places like Los Angeles (which has the highest level of ozone pollution in the country), El Centro and Sacramento are improving. And Salinas is one of the few cities in the country reporting no days of unhealthy air quality. SF Gate/AP has more. And here’s the full report.

Tidbits:

• Since October, 1,900 pregnant Californians have been kicked out of their exchange-bought health insurance plans and placed in Medi-Cal without any notice, reports Voice of OC.

• Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine, has repaid questionable payments made from his campaign account (like $361 to a surf and skate shop, $1,200 to a garage door company and $2,023 in cash payments to his wife and campaign manager), reports The San Diego Union-Tribune.

• And a bill to put the twin tunnels water project before voters is advancing in the legislature, reports The Sacramento Bee.

Assembly:

• Full slate of hearings.

Senate:

• Full slate of hearings.

Gov. Brown:

• No public events scheduled.

Tips: matt@calwatchdog.com
Follow us: @calwatchdog @mflemingterp
New followers: @patmaymerc @FlashReport