GOP mod squad
JUNE 14, 2010
It’s now time for Republican moderates to put up or shut up.
For years Republican moderates have insisted ad nauseam that they – not the party’s conservative base – hold the key to the future. Only middle-of-the-roaders can win general elections and implement the business-friendly reforms that will reform government, they insist.
I’ve watched for years as the grudge match goes on between conservatives, who want to stick to their principles (inconsistent and wrong-headed as they sometimes are) as a way to lure voters who want a distinct choice from what liberal Democrats are offering, and the moderates who believe that conservatives are out of the mainstream and, as such, can’t win general elections.
Both sides make valid points. As conservatives ask, “What’s the point of winning the election if you don’t hold any firm ideas of whatto do once elected?” The moderates respond, “What good is holding such firm principles if you can’t win?” For years, conservatives have had the upper hand, given that GOP primary voters tilt to the right. Most of us recall when conservative Bill Simon won the 2002 GOP gubernatorial primary against moderate Republican Richard Riordan (with the unusual help of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, who ran anti-Riordan ads during the GOP primary to assure that theless-electable Simon would pull off a primary win), andthen went on to lose.
That was then, this is now. Since 2002, Davis was recalled and replaced by a moderate newcomer, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who has been about moderate a Republican governor as one can have. It was hard to assess any long-termtrendsfrom the recall. That was weird stuff, even by California standards. But now some political trends are emerging afterTuesday’s primary. One is that the CaliforniaGOP has moved to the center.
Conservatives didn’t even have competitive horses in the key races. Meg Whitman, the former eBay executive and billionaire, surged to a 37-point victory over Steve Poizner, the insurance commissioner. Both candidates epitomized the Silicon Valley moderate Republican ethos. Despite hispast support of left-leaning candidates and causes, Poizner ran as a conservative. Whitman has similar baggage, but didn’t shy away from her moderate viewpoints.
In the U.S. Senate race, moderate Republican Carly Fiorina beat another SiliconValley moderate-to-liberal candidate, Tom Campbell, by 24 points. Irvine Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, the conservative warhorse, came in a distant third.
Fiorina doesn’t have a long background with political ideas, but she has articulated her view that a woman is better-suited to a race against Democraticleftist Sen. Barbara Boxer. “I have nothing against white men, I am married to one,” she told a conservative group. “But Barbara Boxer has defeated [them] over and over again.”
That type of argument has long been a mainstay of Republican moderate groups, such as the New Majority. The GOP’s best chance of winning is by nominating more women and minorities, they say. I’d personally prefer candidates – regardless of their gender or ethnic background – who advanced the right set offree-market reform ideas. Fiorina echoed conservative themes during the race, but I expect her to quickly move to the left for the general election.
And moderate Republican Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who as a state senator last year cast the deciding vote to raise taxes to supposedly close a budget gap, won his primary race. “As part of the compromise deal that secured Maldonado’s vote, the Legislature voted to put Proposition 14 on the ballot,” as ABC News reported. Prop. 14 – creating a top-two primary system – passed overwhelmingly Tuesday. That “reform,” designed by moderates to assure the election of more moderates to the Legislature, was an even bigger triumph for them than the victories of Whitman, Maldonado and Fiorina.
Currently, parties select their nominees in closed primaries, where voters mustbe registered party members, or independent voters who request a party ballot. Because Republican activists tend to be conservative, and Democratic activists tend to be liberal, the moderates complain that general elections tend to be fought between excessively extreme candidates. They also don’t like how third parties can gum up the election process with their “out of the mainstream” ideas and proposals.
Prop. 14 would let all voters vote in a primary and choose any candidate. The top two vote-getters advance to a run-off. Third parties are cut out of the deal unless, by some miracle, their candidate is oneof the top two. Write-in ballots are outlawed. There’s much debate over whetherthis will work as planned and elect more middle-of-the-road politicians, but there’s no doubt Prop. 14’s win is another huge victory for the state’s moderate Republican wing.
The Left, of course, will depict any Republican, no matter how moderate, as part of the vast right-wing conspiracy. I’ve already heard Boxer describe Fiorina as some right-wing ogre. And the lefty blogger Peter Beinart wrote that Fiorina and Whitman are examples of the “GOP’s fetish for ideological purity.” On which planet do thesefolks reside?
The big problem with moderates is that, by definition, they don’t adhere to anyfirm set of principles but, rather, stress their practical bent and technocratic “we can fix it” nature. They define themselves as somewhere between the Republican Right and the Democratic Left, yet both sides’ positions always are shifting, so it’s never easy to know where a Republican moderate might end up.
As a libertarian, I believe that the state needs less government and that private individuals need more control over their own lives. It’s easy to know where someone like me will come down on any given issue. Moderates don’t operate from a firm ideology, and many of them have been ideologically inconsistent or uninterested in politics much of their adult lives. Schwarzenegger and Maldonado, stars of the moderate GOP wing, have no record of accomplishment in fixing the state. They rarely are motivated by ideas. They tend to be vessels for the most banal establishment thinking, preferring not to rock the vote and annoy vested interests.
On occasion, conservatives and libertarians can find common cause with liberalson issues such as opening government records, property rights, prison reform, drug-law reform, corporate subsidies and civil liberties. But moderates almost always seem to get those basic freedom issues wrong. Splitting the difference is not exactly a core set of beliefs.
Whatever their flaws, it’s clear that the GOP in California has chosen to embrace moderate Silicon Valley candidates with the wealth to fund aggressive campaigns. It’s their time, their hour. If moderate Republican arguments are true, then these candidates should win, and their ideas should help right the ship of state.
The new primary system promises to usher in many more such candidates who won’thesitate to follow Maldonado and join with Democrats to”fix things” even if itmeans implementing one of the largest tax increases in state history.
I wish these moderates the best, but I wouldn’t bet much on their success.
–Steven Greenhut
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