It’s hard to see how Jerry loses

It’s hard to see how Jerry loses

Brown president 1976Chapman University’s usually accurate Economic Forecast expects growth of about 2.2 percent over the next year for the country, somewhat higher for California. That’s not fantastic; previous economic recoveries have been much stronger. But it’s way better than a recession.

And a recession — a deep one — is about the only thing besides health problems that could prevent the re-election of Gov. Jerry Brown next year. Reported the Chronicle:

“Despite California’s high unemployment and poverty rates, 58 percent of registered voters approve of how Brown is doing his job — the highest mark of the 75-year-old Democrat’s third term, according to a nonpartisan Field Poll released Thursday. His highest-ever Field mark was a 69 percent approval notch in March 1976, during his first term….

“Neither yardstick shows any of Brown’s announced or expected Republican challengers — former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, Assemblyman Tim Donnelly of Twin Peaks (San Bernardino County) or former U.S. Treasury Department official Neel Kashkari — getting more than 16 percent of the vote against him in the June primary….

“The poverty rate in California — nearly 24 percent — is the highest in the nation under a new calculation that includes cost of living, according to federal census figures, and the state’s 8.7 percent employment rate is fifth-highest in the U.S.”

The problem for Republicans is that poor people are the most likely to vote for Brown. Because they’re poor, they get government benefits, which Brown has increased in his last two budgets.

The Obamacare debacle is going to slam Democrats nationally. They likely will lose some seats in the California Legislature; and some California seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. (Neither U.S. senator from California is up for re-election this year.)

That’s something for the GOP. They well could end the Democratic supermajorities in both houses of the California Legislature. However, that means Democrats could use 2014 as the time to pass tax and other bills with their supermajority before it might evaporate on Dec. 1.

Statewide

It’s still going to be hard for Republicans to win any statewide race, not just the governorship. AG Kamala Harris and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, eyeing succeeding Brown in 2018, easily should win re-election. Democrats have near locks on the other constitutional offices.

Cruz BustamanteAside from the Schwarzenegger fluke because of the 2003 recall, the last statewide office Republicans have won was Steve Poizner for insurance commissioner in 2006. There were four reasons for that. As an entrepreneur, Poizner had the right background for the job. He also spent a lot of his own money his campaign. His opponent, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, was involved in a scandal. And Cruz’ main campaign platform — seriously — was his diet program. Actual campaign official statement: “I want to become an example to others to lead healthier lives by losing weight myself. Obesity in California costs $7.7 billion a year.”

It’s not entirely impossible for a Republican to win for governor or the other offices. But it’s hard to devise a scenario where it happens.

If you have a GOP victory scenario, please put it in the comments. They need help.

 

 

 

5 comments

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  1. LetitCollapse
    LetitCollapse 5 December, 2013, 11:33

    Are you serious? Are you telling us that Abel Maldonado, Tim Donnelly and Neel Kashkari are the frontrunner GOP’ers poised to challenge the dems for the governor’s seat in 2014? Good Lord. lol. No wonder the republican party continues to sink deeper and deeper and deeper into the political abyss

    Maldonado provided the decisive GOP swing vote that hiked our taxes by $13B in Feb-2009 after he previously signed a “no new taxes” pledge for his constituents. The dems needed 6 GOP votes and Abel gave them the 6th and decisive one. lol. He took his constituent’s money and votes to attain his Ca senatorial seat and then before being termed out broke one of his sacred core promises that violated the basic principles of the republican holy mantra by increasing our taxes! And now the GOP is peddling him as ready for prime time as our next governor?

    Donnelly was the one who got busted at Ontario Airport for trying to carry a loaded .45 and a separate loaded magazine onto an aircraft. No permit either. Cited and released. Convicted. Probation. Now, whatever excuse Tim offers for this….if he became the GOP gunernatorial candidate what are the chances his opponent would make a huge issue of this and eliminate any possibility whatsoever that Tim would get more than 25% of the popular votes? Running for governor? What’s he and the GOP thinking?

    Finally, Neel Kashkari was one of Henry “Mr. Bailout” Paulson’s lieutenants in the US Dept of Treasury PRIOR to the 2008 meltdown. This was the time when the Treasury Department turned a blind eye to all the blatant acts of financial fraud being committed on Wall Street which culminated in the biggest economic meltdown in the history of the world. Neel did such a great job for ‘Mr. Bailout’ that he was appointed to head the ‘Troubled Asset Relief Program’ that was slated to buy up all the poisoned toxic assets from the Too Big To Fails and shove them down the throats of the US taxpayers. And a full 5 years after the meltdown the taxpayers are still bailing out the Too Big To Fails with about $400B in QE each year, with no end in sight. And our federal debt is north of $17T, mostly as a result of the complicity and shennangigans that led to the meltdown about 5 year ago in Oct. 2008. I don’t know about you. But I wouldn’t vote for a former lieutenant of Hank Paulson for dogcatcher. My memory just isn’t that short.

    It’s really so sad that these are the best and the brightest that the GOP can offer for the highest office in California.

    Forget about any of these 3 beating Jerry Brown even though he’s turning California into a 3rd world banana republic, rewarding parasites and punishing producers. Forget it.

    Heck, I don’t even think they’d stand a chance against Gavin Newsom if he was the dem candidate, as much of a joke as he is.

    Really a sad state of affairs all around.

    Reply this comment
  2. Gale Hammons
    Gale Hammons 5 December, 2013, 23:59

    Nice analysis, John.

    I’m really not worried about the evident lack of a viable GOP gubernatorial candidate in 2014. The governor is, as you note, all but unbeatable. The Republicans would do better to save whatever firepower they can muster for the 2018 race, when the Democrats vying to succeed Brown will, to a person, be far to his left. Just imagine Newsom or Harris (or any San Francisco liberal) operating in concert with the current Legislature. I know, I shuddered too. But apropos of your closing question, that sort of governing tandem just might be the most plausible bridge to a GOP victory scenario.

    Reply this comment
  3. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 6 December, 2013, 09:38

    Doomers just give up. Move with us. We treat ya right!

    Reply this comment
  4. LetitCollapse
    LetitCollapse 6 December, 2013, 11:43

    “Save their firepower”? lol. That’s good for a laugh. You mean wait until 2018 for the republicans to bring out one of their long ball hitters like Meg Whitman from the dugout to knock one out of the stadium? lol.

    The republicans in California are identical to the republicans in Congress. The examples are so numerous. They allow the democrats to drive the ball deep into the red zone and when it’s 4th and goal on the 5 all the republicans fall down while the dem QB walks it into the end zone. I’ve seen that same play run so many times there is no doubt in my mind that despite wearing different colored jerseys all 22 players are on the same team. But the majority of the fans are still fooled. That’s what keeps them coming back for more and filling the stadium the next Sunday! Americans love to be entertained!

    As much as some of you may have despised communism you have to give credit to the former the soviet citizens. For the last couple decades prior to Peristroika the soviet government had to provide free caviar, Pelmini, hot Solyanka and tea at the voting polls just to get the people to show up for the elections. The people had the system figured out. For whatever reason we have a very steep learning curve in America.

    Reply this comment
  5. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 7 December, 2013, 09:35

    Country clubs will be kaput without Republican’s. Cocktail party grazers would lose weight. Big bands would go bust……pity.

    Reply this comment

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