Chapman Forecast: Steady CA growth

Chapman Forecast: Steady CA growth

Chapman University’s new economic forecast projects steady but not spectacular economic growth for California and the nation. Real U.S. GDP growth could continue at about 2 percent a year. That’s not as good as the 5 percent or more during previous recoveries, but obviously better than a recession.

chapman 1, real GDP

 

California jobs growth will continue especially strong, at 3 percent a year. It’ll be even stronger in the Inland Empire, at 4 percent. The Inland Empire was hit hardest during the Great Recession, but now is coming out the strongest.

chapman 2, ca jobs growth

 

However, the Inland Empire’s unemployment rate remains high, at 8.3 percent in April; compare to 7.3 percent for California. The state’s hot high-tech areas continue with low unemployment: San Francisco at 4.3 percent and Santa Clara at 5.4 percent. Orange County also remains low at 5 percent. Giant Los Angeles is at 7.6 percent.

chapman 2, ca jobs growth

Gubernatorial election

All this is good news for Gov. Jerry Brown’s re-election campaign. Opponent Neel Kashkari, a Republican, is campaigning on the slogan, “Jobs and Education. That’s it.” But the fairly strong economy shears off the first part of that. An uphill battle just became more steep.

In addition to all their other problems in recent decades, Republicans in California have just had bad luck. The 2003 recall turned out to be a disaster for the party because Arnold Schwarzenegger campaigned under the Republican brand but governed like a caricature of a tax-and-spend liberal Democrat.

In the wake of his disastrous tenure, in 2010 even billionaire Meg Whitman’s $180 million in campaign cash couldn’t overcome the Arnold Legacy against Brown’s low-budget but high-competence campaign.

This year, Brown is surfing the wave of the national recovery, which although not great (as noted) is strong enough to make things look pretty good. Brown also has been able to stand up to his fellow Democrats’ free-spending ways with a lot more muscle than that shown by the former bodybuilder.

But anything can happen in a campaign. And probably will.

 

18 comments

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  1. Bob
    Bob 20 June, 2014, 17:01

    California jobs growth will continue especially strong…

    What a joke. They are living in a fantasy land. The middle class in this country and especially in this state is being destroyed. We have the worst labor participation rate for working aged people in this country since the figure was first tracked. The jobs that are being created are low paying with few benefits. All this while the cost of the necesities is rapidly increasing.

    Our rulers have created a permanent underclass that is rapidly growing. The standard of living in this country has been dropping for years and that trend will continue.

    Reply this comment
  2. NTHEOC
    NTHEOC 20 June, 2014, 17:21

    The jobs that are being created are low paying with few benefits. All this while the cost of the necesities is rapidly increasing
    ——————————————-
    True capitalism at its finest!!

    Reply this comment
  3. NTHEOC
    NTHEOC 20 June, 2014, 17:25

    The economy is soaring in California!! The real estate market is back again with a fury, my house was just appraised 150k more than this time last year. New car sales are selling in record numbers, spending is up,pools,construction,etc,etc, you name it. Cali is back baby and I just hope Jerry runs in 2016……..

    Reply this comment
  4. californianative
    californianative 20 June, 2014, 17:31

    Can you say, “Welcome to In-N-Out Burger, how can I help you”.

    Reply this comment
  5. californianative
    californianative 20 June, 2014, 17:33

    NTHEOC,
    Go out and HELOC that gain! It’s all good, California real estate never goes down ! ( except when it does).

    Reply this comment
  6. Seanmorhamcpoly
    Seanmorhamcpoly 20 June, 2014, 17:55

    NTHEOC THE MARXIST.

    Reply this comment
  7. NTHEOC
    NTHEOC 20 June, 2014, 18:01

    Calinative, I did pull some out again! Thank you private sector real estate….

    Reply this comment
  8. NTHEOC
    NTHEOC 20 June, 2014, 18:10

    Bob says,
    The middle class in this country and especially in this state is being destroyed
    ——————————————–
    This is what happens bob when you let the corporate pigs run wild! The decrease in unionization for workers has led to this. One of the main reasons for unions is to stop these pigs from raping the workers and maximizing their pockets off the workers backs. I wish there was a gov’t run or privately run union that all private sector workers who are not represented by a union could join. It could be for a small business up to a very large corporation and available to ALL workers!!!!

    Reply this comment
  9. Queeg
    Queeg 20 June, 2014, 19:19

    Nth is a great Comrade….his posts blow away the misconceptions of zany trolls that gravitate to CWD.

    California is one big village…..an astounding vibrant economy with the little people starting to share the wealth stolen by greedy globalists.

    Reply this comment
  10. S Moderation Douglas
    S Moderation Douglas 21 June, 2014, 12:59

    I would surely like to believe Chapman.

    Unfortunately, as my dad said about weather forecasters, economic forecasters are probably “fifty percent right, half the time”

    My house is still underwater, my savings have recovered to where they could,for now,cover the difference. Hopefully, if there is another (mild) reception, we could ride it out. Not so sure about some of the grandkids just getting started.

    I’ve heard some people say that prayer didn’t help. They were told (by my sister, no less) that they didn’t “believe” or “pray” hard enough.

    Sooooo….maybe if we REALLY cut them taxes, we’ll all be crapping in tall cotton.

    Except for John Seiler, of course. He’s only paying “half” his income in taxes now, I heard. So, good to go.

    .

    Reply this comment
  11. S Moderation Douglas
    S Moderation Douglas 21 June, 2014, 14:23

    Make that “recession”.

    The “reception” is for my grandson’s wedding in October. I’m sure we’ll ride that one out.

    Reply this comment
  12. Seanmorhamcpoly
    Seanmorhamcpoly 21 June, 2014, 15:13

    NTH, Have you ever considered what a govt union for the non union jobs would do the unemployment rate in this era of globalization? Are you buying all your food and services from co ops? I assume you don t support any or very few for profit businesses.

    Reply this comment
  13. Buds Led Ted S.
    Buds Led Ted S. 21 June, 2014, 15:46

    Is there anyway we can blame the President for this?

    Reply this comment
  14. Buds Led Ted S.
    Buds Led Ted S. 22 June, 2014, 08:08

    I thought Chapman College went BK and closed??

    Reply this comment
  15. Buds Led Ted S.
    Buds Led Ted S. 22 June, 2014, 20:30

    I heard they had issues— aside from the obvious and well known academic ones.

    Reply this comment
  16. T.Steele
    T.Steele 24 June, 2014, 08:33

    CalPers value today?

    297.1 BILLION BABY !!!!

    we are doomed ™

    Reply this comment

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