LAO: No ‘fiscal cliff’ with end of Prop. 30 taxes

05 Dec, 2014 by John Seiler

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Someone should come up with a T-shirt reading, “STAY CALM AND LET PROP. 30 END.”

Maybe sell it and make a few bucks for ya. At least before taxes.

California Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor’s recent “The 2015-16 Budget: California’s Fiscal Outlook” forecasts:

“the end of the Proposition 30 PIT [personal income tax] rate increases will not necessarily cause a sudden revenue dropoff—a ‘cliff effect’—for the annual state budget process. Because these rate increases expire at the end of calendar year 2018, it means that state PIT revenues essentially will include an entire fiscal year of Proposition 30 revenues in 2017–18, half a fiscal year of those revenues in 2018–19, and none of the Proposition 30 revenues in 2019–20. Accordingly, if the economy is growing at that time, as our main scenario assumes, then the expiration of Proposition 30 is likely to result in a slowing of PIT revenue growth in 2018–19 and 2019–20, but not an outright decline in PIT revenues.”

So, the main thing is to keep the economy growing. Such as, for example, not increasing taxes even higher by passing expected tax initiatives on the ballot in 2016 and 2018.

Or passing even more extremist anti-business legislation like AB32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, when — lo these eight years later — Weather.com reported on Nov. 22:

“There have been more than 400 record lows and record cool highs set, covering 43 states, since Sunday. That leaves only five states in the contiguous U.S., all in New England, that have not experienced record cold temperatures this week. 

“On Wednesday morning record lows were broken or tied from New York to Houston. Thursday morning 在线扑克 brought more record cold to parts of the Southeast.”