CA jobs improve, consumer sentiment dips

Construction Los Angeles, FlickrCalifornia’s jobs situation continues to improve — although there’s a dip in consumer sentiment.

The California Employment Development Department today announced unemployment dropped to 6.9 percent in February, down from 7.1 percent in Dec. 2014; and down more than a point from the 8.1 percent of Jan. 2014.

It also found “nonfarm payroll jobs increased by 67,300 during the month for a total gain of 1,806,700 jobs since the recovery began in February 2010.”

But a slight caution comes from the California Composite of Consumer Sentiment released yesterday by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. Any score above 100 is considered positive. The Index dropped to 101.2 in the First Quarter of 2015 from 108.9 in the Third Quarter of 2014.

california consumer sentiment, march 2015

The Third Quarter reading was “a 10-year high since 2004,” Anderson Center Director Esmael Adibi told CalWatchdog.com. “Now we’re seeing a little dip. But more people still are optimistic than pessimistic.”

He said the drop in sentiment “was kind of puzzling” in the midst of generally positive news. The survey asks only if things are better or worse, and doesn’t ask reasons.

But Adibi surmises the reason is the recent spike in gas prices has people jumpy. In a month, prices in the state have gone up $1 a gallon.

“Overall I’m not seeing too much into the drop,” he said. “The last four quarters have been good. There’s steady job growth going on. Home prices are up, making homeowners happy. The stock market is up, bringing the ‘wealth effect'” — in which stock owners spend some of their profits on consumer goods. “And mortgage rates are helping financing.”

U.S. unemployment

The California improvement followed the overall U.S. unemployment rate. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, construction, health care, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in mining was down over the month.”

It was the best showing since mid-2008, before the financial crisis struck in September that year.

But disappointing was wage growth. Reported the New York Times, “Last month, wages rose just 0.1 percent, according to the Labor Department, a disappointment coming off an increase of 0.5 percent in January.”

Forecast

Along with Chapman President Jim Doti, every December and June Adibi delivers a forecast of the state and national economies. Adibi gave CalWatchdog.com a glimpse into what the next June forecast will look like — assuming there are no unforeseen events, he cautioned, such as a major war.

Adibi said overall U.S. jobs growth was “steady, but not strong.” So that’s another caution.

He added that lower oil prices have helped the overall European economy, which is much more dependent on imports than the American economy.

“The main worries are with other countries. But we think Europe will do better — except for Greece,” which remains near insolvency. “German exports are strong thanks to the weaker euro, which also helps European tourism.”

In addition to the Chapman survey of California consumer sentiment, Adibi pointed to the similar survey of all America by the University of Michigan. Released Feb. 27, it found:

“The small overall decline from January still left consumer confidence at the highest levels in eight years. It is hard not to attribute the small February decline to the temporary impact of the harsh weather, as declines that occurred in the Northeast and Midwest were triple the average loss, while Southern residents grew more optimistic.”

At least most Californians don’t have to put up with all that snow.

Summing up, Adibi said, “Overall we’re positive for stronger growth.”

9 comments

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  1. bob
    bob 7 March, 2015, 11:52

    6.9%? Pure fantasy.

    The real rate is much more. If you count those who dropped out of the labor force, those who are underemployed and other factors it is more like 20%.

    But what else can you expect in a neo-feudal casino plantation gulag economy?

    Reply this comment
  2. Tesla_x
    Tesla_x 7 March, 2015, 14:07

    A few notes on all those new ‘jobs’

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-california-oil-jobs-20150128-story.html

    So goes oil, so goes the Kalifornia economy.

    I put ZERO credibility in the BLS statistics, since completely ‘adjusted’ all the way back to 2004.

    Talk about moving goalposts…they moved and rebuilt the entire stadium of employment statistics.

    Why did they need to do this amid the LOWEST civilian workforce participation rate in decades?

    Simple: they have to LIE to make things appear good.

    Consumer sentiment….a new oxymoron, and weasel words to put waaaay too much lipstick on a pig headed to the economic slaughterhouse.

    Reply this comment
  3. Donkey
    Donkey 7 March, 2015, 16:30

    The people of the old Soviet Union had to put up with this state run propaganda as to why they had it so good, now we are receiving the same propaganda produced just the way the public universities taught the little commies to dispense it to the masses.
    The RAGWUS is killing private sector workers with lies and theft, and telling the private sector they have it made in the socialist state of California, but karma will soon right this wrong. 🙂

    Reply this comment
  4. desmond
    desmond 7 March, 2015, 16:45

    Thoughts from Barack, this country has lost its way as we have abandoned the direction of our Muslim founders, Jefferson, Washington, Franklin.
    The next generation of textbooks.

    Reply this comment
  5. Dork
    Dork 9 March, 2015, 05:55

    this is great, only 1 out of 5 people on food stamps, 2 out of 3 people on medicare, 2 out out 3 have Lower incomes than they did in 2004, The 2 largest companies in California right now are “For Lease” and “Space Available” Yeah I believe the numbers put out by the government, I also have a nice bridge in Long Beach for sale.

    Reply this comment
    • Ulysses Uhaul
      Ulysses Uhaul 9 March, 2015, 08:45

      Doomers rally sour lately. Lets talk about pensions to really fire em up!

      The stuff you worry about is meaningless. The welfare state and political class won!

      Reply this comment
  6. Teddy Ted Teddly, Mentor to Moron Poodles
    Teddy Ted Teddly, Mentor to Moron Poodles 9 March, 2015, 09:40

    Unemployment dropping, most econ indicators improving, stock market is at a high, we are doomed! It’s like the commies have taken over. Oh Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Reply this comment

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John Seiler

John Seiler

John Seiler has been writing about California for 25 years. That includes 22 years as an editorial writer for the Orange County Register and two years for CalWatchDog.com, where he is managing editor. He attended the University of Michigan and graduated from Hillsdale College. He was a Russian linguist in U.S. Army military intelligence from 1978 to 1982. He was an editor and writer for Phillips Publishing Company from 1983 to 1986. He has written for Policy Review, Chronicles, LewRockwell.com, Flash Report and numerous other publications. His email: [email protected]

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