You Read It Here First

John Seiler:

A little over a year ago on CalWatchDog.com, I wrote an analysis headlined, “Census pushing Dems to 2/3 majority.”

Although a lot has happened since then, it’s still worth reading. I pointed out that, after the 2010 U.S. Census and redistricting, in 2012 or 2014 Democrats likely would gain a supermajority in both houses of the Legislature. Then they wouldn’t have to worry about getting two votes in each house (the number today) to pass tax increases. Republicans would become terminally irrelevant.

I noted that, with “Latinos generally voting 70 percent Democratic, and their numbers growing,” the Democratic predominance was just a matter of time.

Today, Dan Morain writes in the Bee:

Two of the top political strategists in the state – former Sen. Jim Brulte, a Republican, and Democratic strategist Garry South – have prepared an analysis showing Republicans are in danger of losing more legislative and congressional seats in 2012.

Not six months ago, California Republicans were trounced at the polls, losing every statewide office and managing to drop yet another seat in the Assembly.

Bad as it is, it could get worse, South and Brulte say. There are several reasons why: rapidly growing numbers of Asian and Latino voters reject their message. Redistricting could further isolate Republicans. A new open primary system will add to electoral uncertainty. Importantly, the GOP is showing an inability to raise money from California donors….

Brulte and South, partners at California Strategies, say Democrats could pick up enough seats in the Assembly and Senate to gain two-thirds majorities in both houses. If that were to happen, Democrats could approve tax or fee hikes without Republican votes.

Morain’s article is yet another paean to putting Jerry Brown’s tax-increase proposal on a June ballot. Supposedly that would make the GOP a little more popular.

Actually, it would make their base even more enraged against them, and fracture the party even more. The only coherent message Republicans have left is: Don’t raise taxes.

My recommended strategy for California Republicans to start winning again in this state: Sit down, pour yourself a stiff Scotch and make preparations to get out of Dodge, Calif.

Anyway, Morain, Brulte and South figured out something we had more than 12 months ago right here on this site.

CalWatchDog.com gives you the news a year before it happens. Come back, y’all.

March 24, 2011