Dem 2/3 Dominance in 2012?

John Seiler:

Imagine Democrats totally dominate the budget, even on taxes. It’s not happening today. But in two years?

Fourteen months ago here on CalWatchDog.com I was the first to predict that, after the 2010 U.S. Census and 2011 redistricting, Democrats could obtain two-thirds dominance in both houses of the California Legislature. I wrote:

With Latinos generally voting 70 percent Democratic, and their numbers growing … the 2010 U.S. Census might increase their numbers enough in crucial districts to put the Democrats over the two-thirds threshold before the 2012 elections.

Today’s Sacramento Bee finally caught up with me:

State Democrats tired of dickering with Republicans for tax votes are increasingly hopeful that next year they will elect a majority large enough to make negotiating unnecessary.

Redrawn legislative districts, high voter turnout for the presidential election and continuing demographic shifts are likely to benefit Democrats, political observers of both parties say.

Of course, as the old saying has it, Be careful what you wish for — you might get it.

Total Democratic dominance of the Legislature starting in December 2012 would mean there would be no one else to blame for the state’s problems. If Democrats go tax wild and start raising taxes to Soviet levels, businesses would flee at a faster pace than they already are, unemployment would rise to stratospheric levels and the state budget deficit, instead of shrinking because of higher tax rates, would get worse because the tax base shrunk. You can’t tax what’s not here.

With a Republican possibly being elected president in 2012, little respite would come from the federal government. Already, Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives and feel little compulsion to help bail out the Golden state profligates.

Across America, even Democrats in other states see Californians as perpetual whiners, spendthrifts, and welfare cheats frolicking in the sun on the beach at the expense of the rest of the country.

One thing that fer shur (to use Valley Speak) would happen is the New York bond houses would raise interest rates to impossible levels. So the state no longer could issue bonds. No more borrowing.

And Republicans, although a small minority, still would be able to put up ballot initiatives to cut taxes after the Legislature raised them.

Pretty fast, Democratic dominance would lead to a left/right split in the party itself. This happened in the “Solid South” of the Southern states of America back in pre-civil rights days (before about 1970). Democrats dominated everything, but there were major fissures in the party.

Eventually, the California Democratic Party would develop a responsible, tax-cutting wing opposed to an irresponsible, tax-increasing wing.

In the meantime, the state would be put through the wringer politically and economically.

Welcome to the desert of political sense in the Pyrite State.

May 16, 2011