Is there any hope for CA Republicans?

Is there any hope for CA Republicans?

Elephant GraveyardFeb. 25, 2013

By John Seiler

Last week I riffed on a column by Tony Quinn on Republicans, immigration and California, “Are Republicans Finally Learning to Count?” In turn, Quinn has responded to me:

“He argues that even if they do so Latinos will not vote for them, and to support immigration ‘amnesty’ will rile up the Republican base.

“He may be right; I have great doubts that the Republican Party can survive at all; we may be one election way from the total disappearance of the Republican Party and American politics becoming a contest between the Obama Democrats and the Clinton Democrats.”

Then Quinn has some great lines line:

To see this future, Mr. Seiler needs only look at his own county, Orange County, once the heartland of the Reagan Revolution, where Republicans are just fading away.  And if he wants to find the Republican base, he need only visit the nearest cemetery; that’s where his Republican base is; all that is left of the once mighty Reagan Revolution is elderly white voters nostalgic for a picket fence world of the 1950s that is never coming back.

Right. The people all the streets were named after mostly now are six-feet under. Or they already moved to other states. The 1990s saw a great exodus of hundreds of thousands of Republicans.

Quinn continues:

“For 15 years the Labour Party in Britain suffered defeat upon defeat because its base of old industrial workers was dying out.  In 1997, Tony Blair invented ‘New Labour’ to broaden the party beyond its industrial base, and Labour won the next three elections.”

There were some other factors that might not apply here. New Labour junked the party’s worst socialist policies, especially the nationalization of industries, something never much of a factor in America. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991, socialism was completely discredited (except in U.S. and European university humanities departments).

So Blair, like Bill Clinton, could “triangulate” — that is, make deals with big business and keep taxes relatively low. There was no-return to the pre-Thatcher 98 percent top income tax rate; much as Clinton raised the top income tax rate from 35 percent to 39.6 percent, but not to the pre-Reagan 70 percent.

Another factor was that the British Conservative Party didn’t function well after they stupidly dumped Margaret Thatcher in 1990 in favor of the John Major, a “wet” Tory (British for RINO — Republican in Name Only).

Three parties

There’s a further lesson. Although the Tories took over the PM’s post under David Cameron in 2010, they won only 36 percent of the vote. Britain’s system encourages third parties; and Cameron had to form a coalition with Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democratic Party. By contrast, America’s electoral system for president marginalizes third parties because finishing third usually means zero votes in the Electoral College. Also, U.S. election laws make it difficult to register third parties in all 50 states.

In any case, except for slightly reducing taxes, Cameron has policies nearly identical to those of Blair and Gordon Brown, who succeeded Blair. Much as it was hard to discern any real differences between President Obama and Mitt Romney. If you doubt me, go back and watch their Third Debate (assuming you are a masochist).

Likewise in California, it’s hard to see a GOP candidate being offered up whose policies are much different from Jerry Brown’s, except favoring tax cuts. Meg Whitman was much like him. So was Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The big issue nationally, in California and locally will be the implosion of the welfare state because it just can’t be sustained. At the national level, the federal government now has run up $222 trillion in unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, military pensions, federal pensions, etc. That’s more than $700,000 per person; more than $2.4 million for a family of four. There’s no way that money will be paid. Tax increases would only make matters worse; and even at 100 percent of income, wouldn’t raise enough.

Meanwhile, China, India, Germany, Japan and other countries keep competing with us in the global marketplace. For us to keep up, taxes and regulations will have to be cut.

So government budgets will be cut massively at all levels over the next decade. It really doesn’t matter who does the cutting, whether Republicans or Democrats.

As the Beach Boys sang 50 years ago: “She’ll have fun, fun, fun, till her daddy takes the T-Bird away.”


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  1. us citizen
    us citizen 25 February, 2013, 12:28

    I know lots of repubs that are not old and buried. Just because the MEDIA says they are, does not make it so. Arnold was not a repub………married to the kennedys, how could he! Meg was dragged over the coals by the media. When the MEDIA stops playing sides and just being complete idiots……….the phoenix will rise. Why? Look at history. One party goes for so long until the other side just cant stomach it anymore and then out they go………..bye

    Reply this comment
  2. Hondo
    Hondo 25 February, 2013, 16:59

    That idea that the republican party is all in the cemetery is true. All the parents of my generation are nearly all dead. My mom and dad were liberal republicans as were most of their friends. They came of age in the depression 30’s and the war 40’s and even the democrats were Harry Truman democrats, the ones that hated welfare. That generation is dying out by the millions. Obama won by attrition. The other side died. My parents have made it into their 80’s, but are profoundly lonely. All their friends are gone. It’s too hard on them to go to all the funerals.
    And they are horrified that their golden California, the Beach Boy state, has ended up as it is. An economic and moral catastrophe.

    Reply this comment
  3. SkippingDog
    SkippingDog 25 February, 2013, 17:04

    “Meanwhile, China, India, Germany, Japan and other countries keep competing with us in the global marketplace. For us to keep up, taxes and regulations will have to be cut.”

    Or, we could develop a national industrial policy like each of the nations you mention has, provide national level subsidies for the favored industries, eliminate the unfocused “enterprise zones” and maquiladora favoring import tax regulations, and impose protectionist tariffs on all foreign products.

    Reply this comment
  4. us citizen
    us citizen 25 February, 2013, 17:09

    And what does going to funerals have to do with the party? By the millions? There werent that many in the Great Generation……war killed a lot of them.

    The media is the only one saying repubs are dead. This is just out right hog wash. Now if you mean in CA, you may be right but not for the rest of the US. The election was NOT won by a landslide, infact it was a very narrow margin. The media is in bed with the dems and deliberately goes out of its way to spread crap like this.

    Reply this comment
  5. Hondo
    Hondo 25 February, 2013, 17:15

    When Harry Truman left the whitehouse he nearly had to go on relief, he was so poor. Unlike Clinton, he wouldn’t trade on his name to get paid to make speeches. ( And he didn’t loot the Whitehouse like the Clintons did when they left). He was offered many ‘board of director’ no show jobs and he turned them all down. The congress finally voted all former presidents pensions because of Harry’s poverty and he had to be forced by LBJ to take it. He wouldn’t go on relief.
    The young first time voters who voted for Harry in 48 are nearly all gone.
    Se la vi.

    Reply this comment
  6. Hondo
    Hondo 25 February, 2013, 17:20

    And at the Harry Truman library, if you called the main phone line, Harry was likely to answer the phone. Try that at Clinton’s Library.

    Reply this comment
  7. loufca
    loufca 26 February, 2013, 06:14

    Yo, Dog,
    “Or, we could develop a national industrial policy like each of the nations you mention has, provide national level subsidies for the favored industries, eliminate the unfocused “enterprise zones” and maquiladora favoring import tax regulations, and impose protectionist tariffs on all foreign products.”

    For those who don’t know what a maquiladora is: After slicing through all of the numerous definitions that cloud this question, the answer is, simply, that a maquiladora is a Mexican Corporation which operates under a maquila program approved for it by the Mexican Secretariat of Commerce and Industrial Development (SECOFI).

    A maquila program entitles the company, first, to foreign investment participation in the capital — and in management — of up to 100% without need of any special authorization; second, it entitles the company to special customs treatment, allowing duty free temporary import of machinery, equipment, parts and materials, and administrative equipment such as computers, and communications devices, subject only to posting a bond guaranteeing that such goods will not remain in Mexico permanently.

    Ordinarily, all of a maquiladora’s products are exported, either directly, or indirectly, through sale to another maquiladora or exporter. The type of production may be the simple assembly of temporarily imported parts; the manufacture from start to finish of a product using materials from various countries, including Mexico; or any conceivable combination of the various phases involved in manufacturing, or even non-industrial operations, such as data-processing, packaging, and sorting coupons.

    A couple of basic questions:
    1. Do you really think the feds could even develop such a program effectively?
    2. Do you think the current fed would all any industry to develop products without their meddling in it?
    3. Are you will to forego EPA and other standards?

    The current administration has subsidized industries and has failed miserably. Let the market drive investment not the government. The Constitution should be reviewed before proposing this type of progam.

    Reply this comment
  8. Donkey
    Donkey 26 February, 2013, 06:41

    “National industrial policy,” written like the commie you are dear friend. Yea, sure, what we need are the same fools that created our economic meltdown running a “new” five year plan, just like all the commie nations have done.

    The very same parisitic bunch that has sucked the life out of our nation is not going to revitalize our economy. The only way this economy is going to ignite is if government regulation is scaled back, with cuts being made of 30% to all government workers pay and no worker recieving over $90,000 a year regardless of their title, cut all GW benefits by 50%, remove all GW perks, and reduce all pensions to no more than $50,000 a year.

    The people that write for a living like to say that government needs to be cut, but rarely point to the actual largest cost in government is the people that inhabit the bureaucracies of the RAGWUS.

    The Republican party is dead in California for now, but the states policies will have the people looking for an alternative to the demonrats in the future, as then state dies from their own socialist policies. 🙂

    Reply this comment
  9. Robert T
    Robert T 26 February, 2013, 14:27

    Public sector Unions are nothing but monopolies and strangle the taxpayer with their pensions and retirement benefits. Just ask the half of dozen cities in CA (and soon Detroit) as to why bankruptcy was their only option. Wall street loves pensions too because their funds generate enormous fees. Who care if investment targets aren’t met, there’s always the taxpayer with their open wallets to make up for any shortfall.

    Reply this comment
  10. Robert T
    Robert T 26 February, 2013, 14:30

    Democrats get 100% of the black vote; 70% of the Hispanic vote; 80% of the women vote; 100% of the public sector white male union vote; 100% of the private sector white male union vote. Republicans have no chance. Game over for Conservatives. Fat public sector pensions will choke off what’s left after any conceivable spending “cut”.

    Reply this comment
  11. SkippingDog
    SkippingDog 26 February, 2013, 22:40

    China, India, Germany and Japan each have a national industrial policy, and Seiler obviously believes those economies are working well enough to be competitive models of our own. His solution is the same in this matter as in every other: cut taxes on everyone, eliminate regulations, and trust magic of unfettered laissez-faire capitalism to reach some kind of Randian utopia.

    A national industrial policy is far more realistic and would give us the same tools other nations have.

    Reply this comment
  12. RightCowLeftCoast
    RightCowLeftCoast 27 February, 2013, 16:44

    It will be to late when the public wake up and see the economic disaster that the Public Sector Unions and Welfare State Liberals have created here in California. The state will have made their own disastrous future, just as how Jacob Marley did, and the populace who can afford it will flee.

    Reply this comment

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