Can Kashkari win?

No question Neel Kashkari has a tough road ahead in his battle to defeat Gov. Jerry Brown in the November gubernatorial election. Brown is running what I have called his “Morning in California” campaign. It emphasize how he ended the budget deficit inherited from Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, reduced unemployment and restored economic growth.

But there’s a problem: All that is hollow. Everyday voters know people — friends, relatives, acquaintances — who have been unemployed a long time or are in jobs worse than what they had before the Great Recession. Many of these people still are on food stamps and other government assistance. It’s these people who are ripe for the right economic appeal in a campaign.

Commenting on one of our posts a couple of days ago, San Diego taxfighter Richard Rider provided some incisive economic facts:

• From January 2011 through March 2014, there have been more housing starts in Houston, Texas than in THE ENTIRE STATE OF CALIFORNIA.
• California ranks 48th worst for credit card debt and 49th worst for percentage of home ownership.

Unemployment:

• CA is the 4th worst state unemployment rate (April, 2014) – 7.8%. National unemployment rate 6.3%. National unemployment rate not including CA is 6.1%, making the CA unemployment rate 28.8% higher than the average of the other 49 states. (Sadly, one of the better performances we’ve managed in several years – we were at 4.8% in Nov, 2006 – vs. national 4.6%).
• Using the average 2013 U-6 measure of unemployment (includes involuntary part-time workers), CA is the 2nd worst (after Nevada) at 17.3% vs. national 13.8%. National U-6 not including CA is 13.3%, making CA’s U-6 29.9% higher than the average of the other 49 states.

California poverty compared to other states:

• California’s real poverty rate (the new census bureau standard adjusted for COL) is by far the worst in the nation at 23.8% (see p. 13). We are 48.8% higher than the average for the other 49 states. Indeed, the CA poverty rate is 20.2% higher than 2nd place Nevada.

California business climate:

• In 2012, our supply of California businesses shrunk 5.2%. In ONE year. NOTE: That’s a NET figure – 5.2% fewer businesses in CA in 2012 than were here in 2011. Indeed, in 2012, CA lost businesses at a 67.7% higher rate than the 2nd worst state!
• The top U.S. CEO’s surveyed rank California “the worst state in which to do business” for the 10th straight year (May, 2014).
• From 2007 through 2010, 10,763 manufacturing facilities were built or expanded across the country — but only 176 of those were in CA. So with roughly 12% of the nation’s population, CA got 1.6% of the built or expanded manufacturing facilities. Stated differently, adjusted for population, the other 49 states averaged 8.4 times more manufacturing growth than did California.

That’s a lot of facts to use to make this campaign interesting. Despite the so-called prosperity Brown talks about, even a mild recession would bring back the deficits. The state remains heavily anti-business and anti-jobs creation (except for government jobs).

Even if Kashkari doesn’t win, he at least can highlight how — except for Silicon Valley — this isn’t “Morning in California,” but still a dark night of recession.