Can Kashkari win?

Can Kashkari win?

Neel-Kashkari-300x300No question Neel Kashkari has a tough road ahead in his battle to defeat Gov. Jerry Brown in the November gubernatorial election. Brown is running what I have called his “Morning in California” campaign. It emphasize how he ended the budget deficit inherited from Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, reduced unemployment and restored economic growth.

But there’s a problem: All that is hollow. Everyday voters know people — friends, relatives, acquaintances — who have been unemployed a long time or are in jobs worse than what they had before the Great Recession. Many of these people still are on food stamps and other government assistance. It’s these people who are ripe for the right economic appeal in a campaign.

Commenting on one of our posts a couple of days ago, San Diego taxfighter Richard Rider provided some incisive economic facts:

Unemployment:

  • CA is the 4th worst state unemployment rate (April, 2014) – 7.8%. National unemployment rate 6.3%. National unemployment rate not including CA is 6.1%, making the CA unemployment rate 28.8% higher than the average of the other 49 states. (Sadly, one of the better performances we’ve managed in several years – we were at 4.8% in Nov, 2006 – vs. national 4.6%).
  • Using the average 2013 U-6 measure of unemployment (includes involuntary part-time workers), CA is the 2nd worst (after Nevada) at 17.3% vs. national 13.8%. National U-6 not including CA is 13.3%, making CA’s U-6 29.9% higher than the average of the other 49 states.

California poverty compared to other states:

  • California’s real poverty rate (the new census bureau standard adjusted for COL) is by far the worst in the nation at 23.8% (see p. 13). We are 48.8% higher than the average for the other 49 states. Indeed, the CA poverty rate is 20.2% higher than 2nd place Nevada.

California business climate:

  • In 2012, our supply of California businesses shrunk 5.2%. In ONE year. NOTE: That’s a NET figure – 5.2% fewer businesses in CA in 2012 than were here in 2011. Indeed, in 2012, CA lost businesses at a 67.7% higher rate than the 2nd worst state!
  • The top U.S. CEO’s surveyed rank California “the worst state in which to do business” for the 10th straight year (May, 2014).
  • From 2007 through 2010, 10,763 manufacturing facilities were built or expanded across the country — but only 176 of those were in CA. So with roughly 12% of the nation’s population, CA got 1.6% of the built or expanded manufacturing facilities. Stated differently, adjusted for population, the other 49 states averaged 8.4 times more manufacturing growth than did California.

That’s a lot of facts to use to make this campaign interesting. Despite the so-called prosperity Brown talks about, even a mild recession would bring back the deficits. The state remains heavily anti-business and anti-jobs creation (except for government jobs).

Even if Kashkari doesn’t win, he at least can highlight how — except for Silicon Valley — this isn’t “Morning in California,” but still a dark night of recession.

 

18 comments

Write a comment
  1. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 5 June, 2014, 11:23

    “Can Kashkari win?”
    NO, not even within 20 points.

    Plus= He has one good commercial smashing a toy train.
    Minus= TARP.

    Reply this comment
  2. S Moderation Douglas
    S Moderation Douglas 5 June, 2014, 13:29

    In my humble opinion, Richard Rider is notorious for cherry picking data, exaggerating claims, and omitting any information that doesn’t fit his prior conceptions.

    One example:
    “In 2012, our supply of California businesses shrunk 5.2%. In ONE year.”

    Yeah, the NUMBER of businesses decreased (I’m taking his word for that). BUT, according to SF GATE,:

    “California posted a real GDP gain of 3.5% in 2012 tied with Minnesota for the fifth-highest in the nation.”

    In 2014, by the way, California’s % GDP growth was among the tenth highest of states, at 2.3%.
    ………………………………………
    AND

    If you are going to quote the 23.8% poverty rate, which is much higher than the “official” rate because it factors in the cost of living, then in all fairness, you should use the same criteria for public worker pay:

    Quoting ca.allgov.com :
    When people aren’t complaining about too many public workers, they are complaining about their compensation.
    But when you take into consideration the state’s higher cost of living and compare public employee pay to the state’s overall personal income, California’s rank is below average at #35.

    We have a long way to go, but, you know

    the glass is AT LEAST half full.

    Reply this comment
  3. BillyBS
    BillyBS 5 June, 2014, 13:49

    Yup, the impoverished overworked, overstressed public “worker” in California is a victim of cruel unforgiving citizens preying on them like flies on s*&t.

    Reply this comment
  4. S Moderation Douglas
    S Moderation Douglas 5 June, 2014, 14:14

    They’re doing OK. But they ain’t s*&ttin, in tall cotton, like some folks think.

    Their glass is at least half full, too.

    Reply this comment
  5. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 5 June, 2014, 16:18

    They’re doing OK.
    If getting a MULTI MILLION DOLLAR pension at age 50 is “doing OK” then I wonder what your idea of doing bad is?? Becoming a bazillionaire????

    Dougie, you kill me lil buddy 🙂

    Reply this comment
    • S Moderation Douglas
      S Moderation Douglas 5 June, 2014, 16:53

      I wish!!!

      I can’t even afford a pool service!!!

      Or lawn care!!

      Last time we went to Hawaii, we had to fly coach!!

      But at least my glass is half full.

      Reply this comment
  6. RT
    RT 5 June, 2014, 17:07

    Can Kashkari win?
    Are you kidding me?
    This is now the Republican establishment versus the Democrat establishment.

    You can talk about unemployment,California poverty compared to other states and the California business climate as much as you want but the fact is no one in either party cares about what is or is not real, but only how to put the best spin on it. Those supporting the Republican establishment will believe what they say and those supporting the Democrat establishment will believe them.

    Can Kashkari win? No Brown will grind him to a pulp. But on the upside,the true difference between the ability of the Republican establishment or the Democrat establishment to truly represent the people are both dismal.

    Unfortunately you do get the government you deserve. And for most Californians it means sitting home and not voting. Heck for many it means not registering, not voting and not caring.

    Reply this comment
    • Steve
      Steve 6 June, 2014, 11:21

      RT,

      Oh how I wish that you were not right on this, but you are. Your statement, “Unfortunately you do get the government you deserve. And for most Californians it means sitting home and not voting. Heck for many it means not registering, not voting and not caring.” is right on the mark.
      I also agree that Brown will grind Kashkari to a pulp. Sad but true.
      So many feel that they can not change anything and that the Republican establishment or the Democrat establishment pander to the few and yet rule the many.
      Those average citizens that want a truly responsive government have lost that dream long ago. In fact we have all lost.

      Reply this comment
  7. SeeSaw
    SeeSaw 5 June, 2014, 17:13

    Rex you try to make it sound like a pensioner is a millionaire. It will be 20 years of payments before I collect one million and in the meantime it takes the pension to pay the bills. In 20 years, I will not be a millionaire, due to my pension! Such scenario will be relative for higher-paid pensioners. Stop trying to paint a dishonest picture!!

    Reply this comment
  8. Steve Mehlman
    Steve Mehlman 5 June, 2014, 18:52

    The average state pension is less than $30K a year. So even if every public employee lives to age 90+, more than half of them still won’t have achieved a $1 million pension. (BTW, most of them retire at 60, not at 50). But I’ll bet ol’ Rexie will still be pounding on the 90-year-olds for being bazillionaires.

    Reply this comment
  9. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 5 June, 2014, 23:29

    Het Skipping Dork, too bad that GED job of yours didn’t prepare you to file legal papers. And too bad you could hide behind that facebook account.

    I guess you will just gave to keep paying the laywers 🙂

    Good luck with that GED boy!

    Reply this comment
  10. Queeg
    Queeg 5 June, 2014, 23:31

    Doomer Dog got a job at the Adelanto truck stop scooping and plopping Big Ag open faced roast beef sandwiches loaded with brown gravy, string beans and mashed spuds.

    Reply this comment
  11. BillyBS
    BillyBS 6 June, 2014, 09:40

    The flies are feasting….

    Reply this comment

Write a Comment

Leave a Reply


Tags assigned to this article:
Jerry BrownJohn SeilerTaxesNeel Kashkari

Related Articles

Two former CA governors speak

Katy Grimes: Former California Governor Gray Davis seems so excited tonight. He was just interviewed, and appears giddy with the excitement

"That car had better be waiting"

Katy Grimes: It’s always interesting traveling and observing how people treat one another. Some are exceedingly polite while other travelers

San Jose fire union’s dire claims demolished by 10,000 LAFD job-seekers

The Rough & Tumble news aggregation website had an unusually helpful juxtaposition of two California news stories on Wednesday. R&T