California employment back to 2009

July 9, 2012

By Wayne Lusvardi

California’s current employment rate is about at the same as in 2009, a year after the bank panic and mortgage meltdown of 2008.

While California’s unemployment rate has dropped from a high of 12.3 percent in 2010, it has steadily declined to 10.8 percent as of May 2012.

But the more important employment ratio has only recovered to the same level as 2009.

Population and Employment Change in California, 2008 to 2012 

Year Population Population Increase Employment Employment Increase Employment Ratio Unemployment Rate
2012 37,678,563 250,617 16,500,502 332,726 43.8 10.8
2011 37,427,946 173,990 16,167,776 101,542 43.2 11.9
2010 37,253,956 194,721 16,066,234 132,724 43.1 12.3
2009 37,059,235 302,569 16,198,958 492,704 43.7 11.2
2008 36,756,666 N/A 16,691,662 N/A 46.1 6.6

(Source: California Employment Development Department)

According to Dr. Keith Hall, economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia, the employment-to-population ratio is the most accurate indicator of labor market health.  This is because the employment ratio takes into consideration population growth.

According to official data from the California Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate has dropped from 12.3 percent in 2010 to 10.8 percent in May 2012.  California population has grown by an average of 0.6 percent per year since 2008, but employment has grown by an average of only 0.3 percent per year over the same time period.

Job growth has not been great enough to support California’s growing population even at an anemic forecasted population growth rate of 1 percent.

California has about 12 percent of the U.S. population.  Using data from Hall, California’s working age population grows by an average of 259,600 per year.  California would need to gain 360,000 jobs per year for years to eventually catch up.  This would be like adding jobs for the entire population of Pleasant Hill in Northern California or Santa Paula in Southern California each year.

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  1. Donkey
    Donkey 9 July, 2012, 10:26

    Californian RAGWUS members and their politicains are killing our state. The employment future is only in the government PIC, which adds nothing to the GDP. 🙂

    Reply this comment
  2. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 9 July, 2012, 10:32

    U-6 UE Rate= 23%

    Nuff said.

    Fire some RAWGUS dorks.

    Reply this comment
  3. jimmydeeoc
    jimmydeeoc 9 July, 2012, 13:34

    “This would be like adding jobs for the entire population of Pleasant Hill in Northern California or Santa Paula in Southern California each year.”

    Each MONTH, Wayne. Each month. (Both have around 30,000 people.)

    Maybe a better analogy is this——

    Using your 360k/yr figure, and staying in Ventura County (I know the place – I grew up there):

    …..And applying the 44% statewide Employment ratio to Ventura County (pop. @ 830,000)…..equals 365,000.

    In other words, we would just about need to add the employment of the entire County – every year – just to catch up.

    Add a new Ventura County every year. Wow. That’s a tall order.

    we would have to

    Reply this comment
  4. Hondo
    Hondo 9 July, 2012, 14:10

    It is the failure of California and Illinois, both totally controlled by democracts, that will be the main cause of our Kenyan presidents failure to get reelected, if he does lose.
    Kalifornia has a thousand more ways and opportunities to create jobs than any other state in the union. But the democrats have killed the goose that laid the golden egg. If Kalifornia had just the same rate of unemployment as the rest of the country, Obama would be on his was to an easy reelection.
    Mitt Romney would like to thank the Democrats who run this state for giving him a chance to win.
    Hondo……

    Reply this comment
  5. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 9 July, 2012, 18:22

    IL is in worse shape than CA-if you can believe that.

    Reply this comment
  6. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 10 July, 2012, 08:48

    The sky is falling on Wonder Dog.

    Reply this comment
  7. Rex The Wonder Dog!
    Rex The Wonder Dog! 10 July, 2012, 10:54

    The sky FELL on Stockton 😉

    BAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply this comment
  8. Erik
    Erik 10 July, 2012, 13:19

    I am confused about why you would start in 2009. Wouldn’t it make more sense to start at peak (2007) or bottom (roughly Q1 2010)? Starting in 2009 doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

    Reply this comment
  9. nowsane
    nowsane 10 July, 2012, 14:45

    Californians voted for AB 32, The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, should thank their tree-huggers friends for their unemployment problems. Failing to reverse that vote in 2010, was the ultimate in Harakiri.

    Reply this comment

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