California employment back to 2009

09 Jul, 2012 by CalWatchdog Staff

July 9, 2012

By Wayne Lusvardi

California’s current employment rate is about at the same as in 2009, a year after the bank panic and mortgage meltdown of 2008.

While California’s unemployment rate has dropped from a high of 12.3 percent in 2010, it has steadily declined to 10.8 percent as of May 2012.

But the more important employment ratio has only recovered to the same level as 2009.

Population and Employment Change in California, 2008 to 2012

Year	Population	Population Increase	Employment	Employment Increase	Employment Ratio	Unemployment Rate
2012	37,678,563	250,617	16,500,502	332,726	43.8	10.8
2011	37,427,946	173,990	16,167,776	101,542	43.2	11.9
2010	37,253,956	194,721	16,066,234	132,724	43.1	12.3
2009	37,059,235	302,569	16,198,958	492,704	43.7	11.2
2008	36,756,666	N/A	16,691,662	N/A	46.1	6.6

(Source: California Employment Development Department)

According to Dr. Keith Hall, economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Arlington, Virginia, the employment-to-population ratio is the most accurate indicator of labor market health. This is because the employment ratio takes into consideration population growth.

According to official data from the California Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate has dropped from 12.3 percent in 2010 to 10.8 percent in May 2012. California population has grown by an average of 0.6 percent per year since 2008, but employment has grown by an average of only 0.3 percent per year over the same time period.

Job growth has not been great enough to support California’s growing population even at an anemic forecasted population growth rate of 1 percent.

California has about 12 percent of the U.S. population. Using data from Hall, California’s working age population grows by an average of 259,600 per year. California would need to gain 360,000 jobs per year for years to eventually catch up. This would be like adding jobs for the entire population of Pleasant Hill in Northern California or Santa Paula in Southern California each year.