CA jobs growth continues strong

CA jobs growth continues strong

New data show strong jobs growth continuing in California throughout the year. That’s good news for the state’s workers. And it’s especial good news for one jobholder in particular: Gov. Jerry Brown, who is being coy about a re-election run but likely will go for a fourth term.

The California Index of Leading Employment Indicator jumped to 128.4 in the first quarter of 2014 from 122.5 in the fourth quarter of 2013. The Indicator is compiled by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. Any number above 100 indicates growth; below 100 means jobs shrinkage.

The following graph follows the Indicator’s path over the last eight years, dramatically showing the jobs crash in California during the Great Recession, and the subsequent recovery.

Chapman Employment Indicator

 

The Indicator compiles four components:

  • GDP growth, which rose 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (year to year), up from 2.0 percent in the third quarter.
  • The S&P 500, which increased 29.6 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 16.7 percent in the third quarter.
  • Real exports, which rose 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 2.3 percent in the third quarter.
  • Construction spending, which rose 27.1 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 23 percent in the third quarter.

“We used the fourth quarter 2013 components to show us what will happen in the first quarter of 2014,” Esmael Adibi, the director of the Anderson Center, told CalWatchdog.com.

Jobs growth

“All variables combined in the Indicator series show a decent jump from the previous quarter,” Adibi said. “So jobs creation should pick up a little bit of steam and do better than in the fourth quarter of 2013.”

Adibi pointed to a second graph showing how closely actual jobs growth (the dotted line) tracks the Indicator’s projected jobs growth. So Chapman’s jobs projections have been close to spot on:

Chapman Employment 2

The graph does show that jobs growth still is not as strong as it was in the previous economic recovery of the a decade ago.

Taxes

The jobs growth comes despite recent tax increases, in particular the $7 billion increase from Proposition 30, which voters passed in Nov. 2012. The biannual Chapman Economic Forecast, which Adibi produces along with Chapman President Jim Doti, has warned that tax increases would retard economic growth and jobs creation.

“Tax increases obviously are negative,” Adibi explained. “If we didn’t have those, jobs growth would be even higher.”

Adibi still expects the 2.3 percent annual economic growth projected in Chapman’s Nov. 2013 Forecast to be close to what really happens, “barring the unexpected.”

He said that businesses especially crave certainty. And they’re currently getting certainty on taxes. The state budget is balanced for now, meaning more tax increases are unlikely.

As to Brown’s re-election bid, Adibi said the economic numbers are looking good should the governor seek a fourth term. “The economy is doing better,” Adibi said. “The budget surplus is kicking in due to higher taxes and economy. Voters also will like more spending taking place” on schools, universities and other popular programs.

28 comments

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  1. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 12 February, 2014, 14:26

    The question unanswered is are the new jobs of equal value to the ones lost?

    Most jobs, especially PT jobs, and most newly created jobs are PT, are minimum wage and no benefits. Hardly an economic driver.

    Housing will be the ONLY job creator that will bring us completely out of this depression, we have had no housing growth for 7 years now- longest stretch since the 1930’s, 80 year stretch. No housing growth, no real recovery.

    Reply this comment
  2. Queeg
    Queeg 12 February, 2014, 15:35

    Most of these jobs are created by globalists.

    Ball cap and apron jobs!

    Or indescribable cubicle workers in shiny backs, tight pants chawing on Subway foot longs and blue toothing…. fleecing seniors and the unsuspecting!

    Another negative glorious day on CWD,

    Reply this comment
  3. Ted Steele, CEO
    Ted Steele, CEO 12 February, 2014, 16:34

    John– this update story has no place on a doomer site such as this one. The SQWIDWID will chaff and get restless. They will probably report later that they hear an undefinable thud and that they are now simply nervous. They’re an uptight lot, the doomers John.

    Reply this comment
    • Rex the Wonder Dog!
      Rex the Wonder Dog! 13 February, 2014, 21:05

      What’s SQWIDWID

      Reply this comment
    • S Moderation Douglas
      S Moderation Douglas 14 February, 2014, 09:57

      PRI ???

      I thought it was Will Rogers, but turns out it was Josh Billings who said:

      “The trouble with most folks isn’t their ignorance. It’s knowin’ so many things that ain’t so.”
      ………………………………

      So, reading about California new jobs, I’m curious about how many really are part time. Quick web search shows that, according to some “experts”, three quarters of new jobs are part time. (Very questionable stat, by the way)

      But my biggest reward was finding *this* video, linked from a prominent winger site.

      http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4k4xPUZRdC0&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D4k4xPUZRdC0

      My wife is watching TV, so I never turned up the sound (and never will), but I wonder how many posts I have read are from experts like this???

      Reply this comment
  4. Queeg
    Queeg 12 February, 2014, 17:20

    Yep…….doomer globalists ripping off the little people…..forcing people into dead end service jobs at peanuts pay.

    Reply this comment
  5. Steve Mehlman
    Steve Mehlman 13 February, 2014, 12:42

    “The question unanswered is are the new jobs of equal value to the ones lost? Most jobs, especially PT jobs, and most newly created jobs are PT, are minimum wage and no benefits. Hardly an economic driver.”

    If that is true, surely it is the fault of the corporations that are seeking to maximize profits by laying off people, cutting hours, reducing benefits, etc. In other words, the Wal-Mart model. But the Rabid Rightists will never acknowledge that.

    BTW, thanks John for a balanced report.

    Reply this comment
  6. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 13 February, 2014, 21:10

    .If that is true, surely it is the fault of the corporations that are seeking to maximize profits by laying off people, cutting hours, reducing benefits, etc. In other words, the Wal-Mart model. But the Rabid Rightists will never acknowledge that.
    Well, it is actually the result of both parties, and this partisan blame game is just more nonsense.

    Do you really believe that this once great country could have been decimated in 20 short years, from the LARGEST creditor nation in the world to the largest DEBTOR nation in the world, all within a 20 year time span (1982-2002) without BOTH parties being on the take???

    Please. Better stick to opposing those giant industrial real estate projects Steve. 43 football fields is one heck of a lot of football…

    Reply this comment
  7. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 13 February, 2014, 21:14

    From the 1930’s through the 1970’s the LARGEST private employer in the nation (and the world) was General Motors, where the AVERAGE employee was making TWICE the compensation of he average nationwide employee.

    Today Wal-mart is Americas largest private employer. That says it all. It is basically a snapshot of what has happened to our entire country today.

    Comping GED government employees more than private sector medical doctors doesn’t help at all.

    Reply this comment
    • S Moderation Douglas
      S Moderation Douglas 14 February, 2014, 12:54

      “With a base pay offer of $189,000 a year, on average, family practitioners, pediatricians, and psychiatrists are offered the lowest pay of all physicians, according to the medical search and consulting firm Merritt Hawkins & Associates’ 2012 Review of Physician Recruiting Incentives.”

      Mark Fuhrman doesn’t count.

      Reply this comment
      • Rex the Wonder Dog!
        Rex the Wonder Dog! 14 February, 2014, 20:45

        Dougie, the average GED educated cop in Krazy KA is comp’ing $200K before overtime, they can add another $100K with OT.

        Doctors, lawyers, accountants, they ALL work over 40 hours per week, some work over 100 hours per week, they get no overtime. They are “exempt” employees. A cop or FF working 100 hour weeks will be pulling down $500K PLUS per year.

        And Mark Furman was not the only GED cop. The SHERIFF of Orange County had NOTHING but a GED. How can a SHERIFF get promoted to that position with JUST a GED if it is so hard and difficult?

        Reply this comment
        • S Moderation Douglas
          S Moderation Douglas 15 February, 2014, 02:36

          Average total compensation California public safety workers:

          City………..$170,000

          County……$140,000

          State…………$130,000

          That includes OT and benefits.

          $189,000 is base pay for the LOWEST paid doctors.

          Reply this comment
          • Rex the Wonder Dog!
            Rex the Wonder Dog! 17 February, 2014, 14:32

            That includes OT and benefits.
            No it doesn’t, but please feel free to cite to your source and prove me wrong.

            Cop education requirement= GED, no tuition costs.
            Doctor education requirement= 12-15 years of college. $500LK-$1,000,000+ tuition costs.

            Cop work week= 40 hours + overtime, 3-4 shifts.
            Doctor work week= 40-150 hours + NO overtime,5-7 shifts.

          • Rex the Wonder Dog!
            Rex the Wonder Dog! 17 February, 2014, 14:33

            And Mark Furman was not the only GED cop. The SHERIFF of Orange County had NOTHING but a GED. How can a SHERIFF get promoted to that position with JUST a GED if it is so hard and difficult?
            =
            I see you didn’t comment here Dougie, feel free to this time.

          • Rex the Wonder Dog!
            Rex the Wonder Dog! 18 February, 2014, 09:56

            http://californiapublicpolicycenter.org/how-much-do-californias-state-city-and-county-workers-really-make/#sthash.dPn6n7CC.dpuf
            Doug, we ALL know that California Public Policy Center is a left wing union mouthpiece for the public unions. That is a verified fact.

            Here you go, educate yourself Doug;
            http://unionwatch.org/transparency-via-transparentcalifornia-com/

            And last, I am STIL waiting, after three comments, for you to address your own data;

            And Mark Furman was not the only GED cop. The SHERIFF of Orange County had NOTHING but a GED. How can a SHERIFF get promoted to that position with JUST a GED if it is so hard and difficult?
            =
            I see you didn’t comment here Dougie, feel free to this time.

            And if you cannot address that then address this comment I made;

            Cop education requirement= GED, no tuition costs.
            Doctor education requirement= 12-15 years of college. $500LK-$1,000,000+ tuition costs.
            Cop work week= 40 hours + overtime, 3-4 shifts.
            Doctor work week= 40-150 hours + NO overtime,5-7 shifts.

          • S Moderation Douglas
            S Moderation Douglas 18 February, 2014, 16:39

            “California Public Policy Center is a left wing union mouthpiece for the public unions. That is a verified fact.”?????

            Somebody been spiking your kibble, son.

            AFK

  8. bob
    bob 15 February, 2014, 00:48

    The job growth is bogus. You should read mish shedlocks blog for job stats. Much of the so called growth are people losing full time employment and taking on multiple part time jobs. Lose one full time job, gain two part time jobs and that is much of your growth.

    Plus most of the new full time jobs pay less than 35k per year with no benefits.

    Great recovery, huh?

    Reply this comment
  9. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 15 February, 2014, 07:05

    Boy! WOW!

    The key is to get a good public school education and go to a first rate state university like Cal State Fullerton or Humboldt State in diversity studies social entanglements or marijuana seed germination minutia or work for a muni or be in law enforcement. Perhaps, maybe grow into a xxxl purple TEE and slog it out at DMV administering driver tests of the beleaguered undocumented.

    Money is fab and pensions great.

    With all this great info put up by sharp doomers…..get a government job!

    So exciting.

    Reply this comment
    • Bill Gore
      Bill Gore 15 February, 2014, 07:23

      Careful, trailer hitch….Your sarcasm is touching on state employees (“workers”)…Forwarded to Troll Master Soros…

      Reply this comment
  10. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 15 February, 2014, 09:04

    Billybub

    Thks for heads up…..little levity and emotional relieves tensions of daily life for strung out doomers….financial problems melt with a government career….yep….live good work union!

    Reply this comment
    • Billy Bob Bogus
      Billy Bob Bogus 15 February, 2014, 12:11

      Well, Mr. Trailer Hitch, I’m a doomer and a gloomer and a boomer and a denier and I think your posts are just marvelous.

      Reply this comment
  11. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 16 February, 2014, 08:25

    Billybub….You’re among the few who understands the CWD trot…..Heavy …..light……

    Fair and balanced

    And no tomes!

    Reply this comment
  12. Ted Steele, CEO
    Ted Steele, CEO 19 February, 2014, 07:19

    The SQWIDWIDS are well behaved on this string.

    Reply this comment

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Tags assigned to this article:
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