Calif. default risk turns Gov. Brown into a capitalist

Aug. 2, 2012

By Chriss Street

There is nothing like the threat of insolvency and a downgrade to junk bond status to motivate traditionally liberal politicians to abandon the environmentalists who heavily fund their campaigns.  Last week, Gov. Jerry Brown of California tossed one of his core campaign-bundling constituencies under-the-bus at a bill-signing event in downtown Los Angeles.

As Brown signed his third measure this year that dramatically narrows the “sustainable” crowd’s ability to use litigation to delay or kill capital projects, the governor said it is time for “big ideas and big projects,” especially ones to “get people working.”  With the pace of public insolvencies and Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy fillings accelerating across the United States, Brown is the vanguard for high-profile progressives willing to bet that capitalism can pull them back from the precipice of disgrace and potential recall.

For most of Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown Jr.’s first tour as governor from 1975-1983, Gray Davis served as his Chief of Staff. When Brown was campaigning for president in those years, Davis ran California in Brown’s absence.  In 1998, Davis was elected governor by an overwhelming 20 percent margin.

In the next 1,778 days, Davis went on a liberal borrow-and-spend blitz by signing 5,132 bills, including huge pension spikes for public employees, public control of electricity purchasing, substantial increases in school spending and the nation’s first state law requiring automakers to limit auto emissions. He even tried to pass gun control.

But when the economy turned down after 9/11 and the credit rating agencies’ downgrades sent California into a financial crisis, Davis became only the second governor in American history to be recalled by voters.

The recall of Davis sent a scare through politicians across the nation about the need to control spending and become more pro-business.  But with real estate prices skyrocketing, state and local government revenues exploded to the upside.  Spending accelerated even faster than rising revenues as governments borrowed heavily on the hope of an endless rise in property and sales taxes.

Borrowing

When the Great Recession hit in 2008, state and local governments kept borrowing and spending, because they enjoyed huge “stimulus” transfers from the Obama Administration and a two-year lag before tax revenues began to fall.  But In 2011, state and local spending fell for the first time since 1946.  This year, government entities face steep budget deficits and are struggling to pay off debts accumulated over prior years.

The Moody’s and S&P credit rating agencies provided the “investment grade” credit ratings encouraged investors to buy many dicey municipal bonds. Those agencies now fear they may have liability and are actively slashing many ratings.  As ratings levels have hit “junk bond” status, 26 municipalities filed for bankruptcy since 2010.  Three California cities have filed bankruptcy over the last 60 days and Fresno, Duarte, Compton, San Jose and other cities have acknowledged they are in financial crisis.

More ominous, for 60 years municipal debt increased annually, but this year for the first time the municipal bond market will face the “August Cliff”.  This is an event where more money will flow out of government coffers to pay off maturing debt than will come in from expanding new bond sales.  With credit ratings falling and media-driven fear rising about the “Mounting Muni Meltdown,” it is only time before conservative investors become reluctant to put their cash back to work in municipal bonds.

Development

Brown is on a pro-development tear.  He shocked the “greens” last week by joining U.S. Department of the Interior Secretary Ken Salazar in announcing plans to build two massive tunnels under the California Delta at a cost of $23.7 billion to carry water from the Sacramento River to connect to the California Aqueduct to quench Southern California’s thirst for new land development, while generating more property and sales taxes.  The next day he dedicated the 117-mile Sunrise Powerlink transmission line that can carry 1,000 megawatts of energy from the Imperial Valley to San Diego — the first major new power lines to connect to San Diego in more than 25 years.

Brown is painfully aware that California already has the second lowest state municipal bond rating in the United States, and that Moody’s recently warned it plans to issue California a downgrade soon, possibly to junk.  My analysis indicates that approximately 20 percent of cities, 30 percent of redevelopment districts and a number of counties in California may file for bankruptcy in the next two years.

Jerry Brown’s father, former California Gov. Pat Brown, first ran for state Assembly as a Republican in 1928, but lost and later joined the Democratic Party.  Pat Brown’s two terms as governor were marked by working closely with the pro-growth private sector to build the enormous California Aqueduct, enact the California Master Plan for Higher Education and found the California Commission for Economic Development.

Jerry Brown seems to have re-embraced his father’s belief in building infrastructure to support private-sector growth to rehabilitate California.  When Jerry Brown was asked why he has signed three bills this year to limit challenges to major infrastructure projects by the state’s restrictive California Environmental Quality Act, Brown responded, “I’ve never seen a CEQA exemption that I don’t like.”

Chriss Street will be in Studio with Paul Preston on “The Inside Education,” Streaming Live Monday August 6 through Friday August 10, 7-10 PM
Click here to listen each night: 
http://www.mysytv.net/kmyclive.html

12 comments

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  1. Rex The Wonder Dog!
    Rex The Wonder Dog! 2 August, 2012, 10:10

    Clowns tenure will end up no different than Arnold and Davis, disatsers. I guarantee it.

    Reply this comment
  2. Ted Steele, Janitor
    Ted Steele, Janitor 2 August, 2012, 10:11

    Good for the Gov.!!! He wants J o b s !!!! That is ALL GOOD !!!

    Ted

    Reply this comment
  3. Ted Steele, Janitor
    Ted Steele, Janitor 2 August, 2012, 10:12

    LOL—- yet again ANOTHER infamous Poody prediction !!

    She makes one a day these days!

    Of course…..seriously….not ONE has come true!!!

    Flash—- 0 for 9 so far going back to before the oc cops lawsuit case !

    Ask me for details!

    Ted

    Reply this comment
  4. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 2 August, 2012, 10:41

    Poodle has good ideas!

    For mititia groups, bedroom regulators and fanatical country club groupies.

    Reply this comment
  5. Rex The Wonder Dog!
    Rex The Wonder Dog! 2 August, 2012, 12:43

    The handsome Pittie is 10-0 ON HIS PREDICTIONS 🙂

    Reply this comment
  6. us citizen
    us citizen 2 August, 2012, 13:19

    Only idiots voted Brown back in. What the hell is wrong with this state!

    Reply this comment
  7. Ulysses Uhaul
    Ulysses Uhaul 2 August, 2012, 15:20

    Do you really think money bags Meg had a clue what she did, what she was, what she is or what she wanted us to believe she might be on any given day or last year or whenever.

    Worst campaign since Simon…..that really was three months of truly bad politics.

    Reply this comment
  8. Frank
    Frank 2 August, 2012, 18:20

    According to JP Morgan’s July 13, 2012, municipals commentary, Stockton has approximately $703.0 million of outstanding debt (excluding Mello-Roos, which are considered to be secured by special revenues and are expected to be paid in any case). Mammoth Lakes has $12.4 million of outstanding debt. San Bernardino has $223.1 million of outstanding debt.

    Assuming all of this debt is impaired in bankruptcy, which is unlikely, the combined debt at issue here represents just 0.15% of the California market and 0.03% of the total municipal bond market.

    According to Bloomberg:
    “Since at least 1981, and possibly as far back as the 1930s, no US municipality has used bankruptcy to force bondholders to take less than the full principal due, according to experts and court records …

    Of the 43 municipal bankruptcies filed since 1981, 33 were either dismissed by a judge, or failed to win a court ruling discharging their debt. Court records for the remaining 10 did not list the deposition. [James Spiotto of Chapman and Cutler LLP] said none of those cases ended with a cut to the principal owed lenders …”

    There are many good reasons why Chapter 9 has remained a last resort for local governments, and why the governments that have filed for Chapter 9 have continued to honor commitments to bondholders, but the central reason is the desire not to be locked out of the municipal bond market for a long period of time. Unlike corporate bankruptcies where there is always the threat of liquidation, municipalities exist in perpetuity and have to be able to provide essential government services to residents. It is very difficult to conceive of a government undertaking, improving, or maintaining large projects and facilities without some measure of access to the capital markets. Vallejo, California is an excellent example. Vallejo filed for bankruptcy in May 2008 and did not emerge until November 2011 (3.5 years later, and only then because of some fortuitous rulings on the city’s behalf). The city racked up $10 million in legal fees (a figure that, according to JP Morgan, escalates to $248 million when ensuing litigation costs are included). Vallejo has not issued bonds since 2004.

    The market has actually shown improvement with respect to defaults generally. Per JP Morgan (July 20, 2012 – their discussion of the market has been excellent lately):

    “There have been 47 first time payment defaults totaling $889 million YTD. [Stockton is expected to default on $230 million of debt at the beginning of September.] Of this amount, 58% is unrated [translation: sold to sophisticated investors]. This compares positively to a total of approximately $1 billion over the same period last year. If cases where bond insurers had to step in are excluded, the YTD total falls to $725 million across 42 issuers. If the handful of cases where debt service payments were late due to administrative errors / oversights are excluded, the total falls to $549 million across 33 issuers.”

    Maybe Chriss Street needs to go easy on the Sterno…

    Reply this comment
  9. Rex the Wonder Dog!
    Rex the Wonder Dog! 2 August, 2012, 18:38

    According to Bloomberg:
    “Since at least 1981, and possibly as far back as the 1930s, no US municipality has used bankruptcy to force bondholders to take less than the full principal due, according to experts and court records …
    ===
    Errr…Vallejo bond holders took a huge hair cut…..get your facts straight.

    Reply this comment
  10. Ted Steele, Janitor
    Ted Steele, Janitor 2 August, 2012, 20:26

    Frank– LOL—- the sterno !!!

    Reply this comment
  11. BobA
    BobA 3 August, 2012, 08:40

    I will take Jerry Brown seriously when he cancels his choo-choo train project and resign from office.

    Anything short of that can be interpreted as a feint to save his own hide and reputation.

    Reply this comment

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